Irish Politics
- Thread starter JakeC
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Most popular party in every age demographic below 60 according to the exit polls. That reads like a now rather inaccurate pre-written article.
I would be surprised if there is a FF/SF coalition. SF ran 42 candidates in the 39 constituencies. FF ran 84 and FG ran 82 candidates.
Its seems to be the standard conservative approach when discussing voting patterns.
I used to worry that maybe one day it will click with more right wing people that the reason ''young people'' are voting left is due to their material needs and all it takes to slow down the flow of support, is for the right to back a bit funding for healthcare and social housing but they really are just going to carrying on the culture wars stuff until the very end.
It is true to some extent though, you only have to look to stuff like the Irish Simpsons Fans Facebook page, where thousands of Irish voters in this age bracket seem to find SF/IRA connections hilarious, with absolutely no mention of the negatives behind them. You'd be hounded if you say anything that could possibly be construed as ableist/sexist etc., but wilful ignorance towards links with terrorists is grand. There are other left parties out there to vote for without the baggage associated with SF.
The issue isn't in criticising that "ignorance", it's in directing that accusation towards the younger generation at a time when SF's popularity has dramatically increased in other demographics too. If you're going to level that criticism at the electorate then you need to do it in a much broader way.
Just as an aside; why is it that parties can run more than 1 candidate in an area? Wouldn’t it be fairer to have 1 candidate per party in a constituency?
As it stands someone can get elected on around 10% of a vote and get a seat earning €60k a year. That seems absurd to me
As it stands someone can get elected on around 10% of a vote and get a seat earning €60k a year. That seems absurd to me
Fair points. I’d never underestimate the lengths FF are willing to go to to get into/stay in power, though.
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Huh?
The ultimate aim is to get 80 seats which is a majority. So if you only had 1 per constituency that wouldn’t be possible
Duh. Of course
Theres roughly 30 constituencies of varying size and need 80 seats for a majority. Only running 1 in each area wouldn't exactly make much sense when some have as much as 5 seats to fill. Plus would only fill up spaces in the dail with nutters from renua ifp and the national party.
I agree. I think Micheal Martin is keen on idea of being Taoiseach too.
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The other main left party is about vanish, labour was just too willing to jump in bed with the 2 big boys and that has fecked them in the end and voting for a party with Joan Burton is sickening.
Coalition with SF is also arguably the least worst option for FF in terms of surviving this new reality.
That's if they accept that this is the new reality, mind you. They might see this very rapid surge for SF as something they would struggle to sustain in subsequent elections anyway.
Whatever happens, I expect one of FF or FG to fade away into obscurity and the survivor will compete primarily with SF for the foreseeable future. The surviving party will also move further to the right and we'll have a British kind of political landscape.
Certainly reads like a country crying out for a more traditional left/right divide. 65% of voters wanting increased public expenditure over tax cuts, with health and housing the two dominant issues.
Also wonder what impact the marriage referendum and abortion referendum have had in energizing younger voters.
Also wonder what impact the marriage referendum and abortion referendum have had in energizing younger voters.
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Hmmmm.
Hoping SD’s Gary Gannon gets in in Dublin Central, really good guy who’s a worthy successor to Tony Gregory in the north inner city.
Yeah that is true, I just don't think the other age groups have been so flippant(maybe I'm wrong).
I suppose it was easy for me to take the moral high ground and vote SD, as I'm not really affected by any of the major issues in this country at the moment. SF was the only option if you actually wanted a lot of bodies in gov that have a left agenda, but it still seems(from my view online) that not many of the <30 age group did their due diligence when decided who to vote for, or they don't care(which is worse).
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Looks like we could be wrong.
Michael Martin is rowing right back on his position and opening the door to the possibility of a FF/SF coalition in his latest comments.
https://www.independent.ie/incoming...tance-on-working-with-sinn-fein-38939826.html
I don't really understand why he wouldn't just go with FG though in a way.
Less controversial. Less ethically problematic from his perspective. Far easier in terms of agreeing on policy. I suppose it just puts the future of the party and its relevance in jeopardy.
And I’ve just seen FG’s Eoghan Murphy once again categorically rule out working with SF. So yeah, FF-SF looking more likely now.
Wonder how Mary-Lou is currently getting on trying to negotiate a grand left alliance with the rest?
I was sure that at the 7 leaders debate, either most of or all of the leaders of the left-sided parties said they wouldn't touch SF.
Michael Martin is current proof that anyone can back track, but getting the seats together and getting all leaders to do a turnaround sounds ambitious to say the very least!
Exactly.
A FF/FG coalition would allow SF to continue establishing themselves as the only viable alternative to the current state of affairs. This would be far more of a problem for FF than FG as they are more divided on the SF issue, more vulnerable to SF gains and currently have a less firm political identity. It would carry existential risk for the party.
Whereas a FF/SF coalition would see SF having to compromise on a large part of their platform and get their hands dirty in government, which will inevitably see them shed a lot of the outsider support that has got them into this position. It would also allow FF to try to cannibalize some of the SF position, as so often happens in the Senior/Junior coalition partner dynamic. A FF/SF government that ends with reduced support for SF is as good as it's going to get for FF.
We're not totally fine with it. The NI assembly is viewed as being a severely dysfunctional compromise. We dont envy you in the slightest (sorry not trying to be a prick)
Yeah it would be a nightmare to organize. And to govern with.
In other news:
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Shame Noel Grealish looks like getting elected in Galway. 
Does the amount of candidates put out by SF not give way to the danger of very low-quality TDs getting elected?
Have a mate who believes that outside of a few prominent SF representatives, the quality of their candidates is abysmal. I didn't bother asking him to elaborate at the time but his point has a logical basis, doesn't it?
60% of SF voters are voting for the party moreso than the individuals in their local constituency, which means more party driven voters than the votes going towards any other party (FF for example is 60% in favour of the actual candidate).
There's also only 1 candidate in most constituencies whereas FF and FG have at least two in many of them, meaning that you are less likely to get voted in just because of the party you're in, you also have to be impressive as an individual to oust the rest of the candidates and in particular, the other candidates in your own party.
I've also seen a few stories about newly elected SFs not too long ago being in the political wilderness without any real achievements. They're suddenly in.
Is this not a worry at all?
Have a mate who believes that outside of a few prominent SF representatives, the quality of their candidates is abysmal. I didn't bother asking him to elaborate at the time but his point has a logical basis, doesn't it?
60% of SF voters are voting for the party moreso than the individuals in their local constituency, which means more party driven voters than the votes going towards any other party (FF for example is 60% in favour of the actual candidate).
There's also only 1 candidate in most constituencies whereas FF and FG have at least two in many of them, meaning that you are less likely to get voted in just because of the party you're in, you also have to be impressive as an individual to oust the rest of the candidates and in particular, the other candidates in your own party.
I've also seen a few stories about newly elected SFs not too long ago being in the political wilderness without any real achievements. They're suddenly in.
Is this not a worry at all?
Lovely stuff... Hope it stays that way
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Well, theres only one way to get experience and create a reputation. If theres a hung dail and another election and they had to go out and add a couple dozen new candidates it might start becoming a problem in the immediate term. They need to grow though and you'd expect some of the new candidates to at least be competent.
Agree with your friend on the quality of most of their candidates though sadly.
First time ever in Irish history that a current Taoiseach has not been voted in from the first count and now he can't get in on the second count...
Couldn't happen to a bigger prick
Struggling to understand the vote tallies. It looks like both Michael Martin and Varadkar have less overall votes in their respective areas: what does that mean going forward?
They’ll both retain their seats after transfers. However I find it hard to see Varadkar continue as FG leader after what is a bit of a humiliation for him. Martin’s position would seem a bit more secure as things stand.