Is Top 4 this season so predictable?

[tomaldinho1]

I think there is a considerable gap between the top 4 sides and clubs like Leicester, Arsenal and Spurs. Look at the quality of signings from city, Chelsea and United. Liverpool will have the best CB in the world returning. I think it will take minimum 75 points to stay in the top 4 and I think that’ll be too much for clubs on the outside.

Agreed and it’s been the same for ages. You’d argue even when teams like Leicester have had a good season, they’re normally still pipped to the top four by one of the four big clubs having an average season (Liverpool last season). The spending power of United, City, Chelsea is unrivalled and Pool just recruited super well (and still spent heavily).

It’s basically been like this since Poch left Spurs.

 

[justsomebloke]

Here's how I'd group teams.

Top four group:

Chelsea
Liverpool
City
United

Challengers for top 4:

Leicester
Spurs

Mid-table:

West Ham
Arsenal
Aston Villa
Everton
Leeds

Lower half, but with potential to challenge for upper half:

Wolves
Brighton

Lower-half, but above relegation zone and with no real potential for top half:

Southampton

Relegation battle:

Norwich
Palace
Brentford
Watford
Burnley
Newcastle

 

[Mike Smalling]

It's certainly looks that way.

On another note, will be interesting to see if the media persists with the Top 6 group throughout the season? Really they should revert back to Top 4 with United, City, Chelsea and Liverpool. Arsenal are nowhere near good enough to be included in the conversation anymore. If they do persist with the Top 6, you could argue Leicester should be in it before them.

 

[GlasgowCeltic]

Looks like the most solidified top four since the original top 4 of the late 2000s, I guess Leicester are Moyes Everton or Oneills Villa in this scenario. Spurs are Spurs

 

[FrankWhite]

Now I think we'd do ok actually, unlike last year perhaps.

Pogba in the hole behind Rashford, Sancho and Cavani/Greenwood is a pretty strong forward line.

This is interesting and has me thinking about which players injuries (knock on wood) has the capacity to derail our season the most.
The three I can think of currently are as follows:
1) Harry McGuire: mainly because none of the other CBs are leftsided CBs. We saw Lindelof last season, how bad he was on the left and Varane as excellent as I think he'll be, always played on the right for R Madrid and France.
2) AWB: This is because the current backup Dalot has a lot of questions about his defensive capabilities.
3) David De gea: This is more a personal one, as IMO, Henderson is still a unknown that could go either way.

 

[Dash247]

Brave of you to predict Arsenal will finish in the top 7. This could be the year they drop out of the top 10.

I might be thinking too highly of them by predicting they will finish between 5 to 7, but I don't think they will finish outside of top 10.
Both Aubameyang and Lacazette will come back soon and they should be improving them at least in terms of scoring.

West Ham could come up to #5 to #7 and Arsenal might drop down to #8 to #10.

 

[Zaphod2319]

Once the players give up on a manager, the slide happens fast. I think Arteta has lost the players.

 

[pass.pass.pass]

I might be thinking too highly of them by predicting they will finish between 5 to 7, but I don't think they will finish outside of top 10.
Both Aubameyang and Lacazette will come back soon and they should be improving them at least in terms of scoring.

West Ham could come up to #5 to #7 and Arsenal might drop down to #8 to #10.

Arsenal have actually finished 8th the previous two seasons, so it's about par for them right now. They are only getting worse this season, I think.

 

[Nou_Camp99]

The current top 4 consists of the two biggest football clubs in the land by miles and two Petro dollar clubs who are set up in such a way that complete failure is almost an impossibility.

I don't see anyone else getting in this season yet again.

 

[8thWonder]

Here's how I'd group teams.

Top four group:

Chelsea
Liverpool
City
United

Challengers for top 4:

Leicester
Spurs

Mid-table:

West Ham
Arsenal
Aston Villa
Everton
Leeds

Lower half, but with potential to challenge for upper half:

Wolves
Brighton

Lower-half, but above relegation zone and with no real potential for top half:

Southampton

Relegation battle:

Norwich
Palace
Brentford
Watford
Burnley
Newcastle

Biggest question marks for me are Brentford, Leeds and West Ham. I wouldn't be overly surprised to see Brentford have a great year and finish top half. Likewise I wouldn't be surprised to see West Ham get caught up in a relegation battle and I'm not sure if Leeds will kick on or struggle this year?

Actually and Southampton I think will definitely be closer to relegation than to European spots.

Other than those I think your probably right.

 

[justsomebloke]

Biggest question marks for me are Brentford, Leeds and West Ham. I wouldn't be overly surprised to see Brentford have a great year and finish top half. Likewise I wouldn't be surprised to see West Ham get caught up in a relegation battle and I'm not sure if Leeds will kick on or struggle this year?

Actually and Southampton I think will definitely be closer to relegation than to European spots.

Other than those I think your probably right.

I'd love to see Brentford doing well. Even though they were the last team to qualify, they do seem to have a different sort of potential to Watford and Norwich.

And we're probably most of us making the same mistake we make every year, which is to assume last season represents the benchmark, and then add and subtract according to transfers and managerial changes. As we should know, it doesn't always work out that way. So you could very well be right about West Ham and Leeds.

 

[Blood Mage]

Liverpool are nailed on for 4th. Top 3 will be United, City and Chelsea but it's anyone's guess as to which order we all end up in, I'd say the three teams are pretty equal this season.

 

[Giggsy13]

This is interesting and has me thinking about which players injuries (knock on wood) has the capacity to derail our season the most.
The three I can think of currently are as follows:
1) Harry McGuire: mainly because none of the other CBs are leftsided CBs. We saw Lindelof last season, how bad he was on the left and Varane as excellent as I think he'll be, always played on the right for R Madrid and France.
2) AWB: This is because the current backup Dalot has a lot of questions about his defensive capabilities.
3) David De gea: This is more a personal one, as IMO, Henderson is still a unknown that could go either way.

“McGuire”

 

[FrankWhite]

“McGuire”

Constructive discussion please

 

[Leonzo1]

The top 4 this season will basically be a 4 way title race until the last couple of weeks. Similar to the big 3 in La liga. There will be a big gap from 4th to 5th and then a very tight 5th to 10th.

 

[laughtersassassin]

Right so obviously the top 3 will be Liverpool City Chelsea in whatever order.

But are we confident we still get 4th with Conte coming in to manage Spurs?

Will be hard to tell but if I had to guess I'd out Spurs as favourites over us given that Conte is a brilliant manager.

Keeping Ole is a massive mistake and a massive risk even if we still make top 4.

 

[bosnian_red]

We might well finish in the 7-10th spot if we keep Ole all year. I'm not so confident that we finish above West Ham, Spurs have a decent enough squad with a top manager now, and then once we fall off we'll really start dropping points left and right. The only way we get top 4 is by sacking Ole IMO.

 

[Devil may care]

It's not a forgone conclusion that we get top 4, I don't think West Ham will maintain their form with the European games as well and Leicester are wobbling, it depends if Conte gets Kane firing, if he does then Spurs are a threat for the 4th spot and Arsenal are a bit of a dark horse at the moment.

 

[TMDaines]

Spurs were gonna be a threat for top 4 no matter who the manager is, especially if United only deliver a mediocre points total. They've performed poorly so far, but accrued a decent number of points having won five matches and played everyone except for Liverpool in the top 6.

 

[tomaldinho1]

Spurs were gonna be a threat for top 4 no matter who the manager is, especially if United only deliver a mediocre points total. They've performed poorly so far, but accrued a decent number of points having won five matches and played everyone except for Liverpool in the top 6.

Spurs should be a threat if one of Chelsea, Pool, City, United have a poor season. Obviously if you were a betting man watching United this season, we'd be the favourites to miss out but I do think the quality/depth gap is too big, even with Ole at the helm, we can setup with 5 at the back versus most teams and grind out wins. We won't win anything major (which isn't really acceptable after 3 years) but we should get top 4.

 

[RedDevilRoshi]

It's not a forgone conclusion that we get top 4, I don't think West Ham will maintain their form with the European games as well and Leicester are wobbling, it depends if Conte gets Kane firing, if he does then Spurs are a threat for the 4th spot and Arsenal are a bit of a dark horse at the moment.

Definitely. I think no European football in midweek is definitely helping them.

 

[Varun]

Conte even with that spurs squad may just beat us to the punch. That's without even going into some other clubs.

 

[Zaphod2319]

If this ownership deal goes through at West Ham, it will be interesting to see how much they try to strengthen in January. I am sure Conte will want a budget in January if he takes over Spurs. Then you have Brighton playing like they can beat anybody. I hope we can maintain our form, because that 4th spot is going to have quite a few challengers this year.

 

[pacifictheme]

Generally speaking clubs like west ham and Brighton fade as the season goes on. Look at Leicester two years running. Play really well but run out of steam in the last 10 games or so.

Agree that top 3is fairly set, then there are a few clubs who could get 4th. We should be there easily but I think we will struggle.

 

[Cheimoon]

Generally speaking clubs like west ham and Brighton fade as the season goes on. Look at Leicester two years running. Play really well but run out of steam in the last 10 games or so.

Agree that top 3is fairly set, then there are a few clubs who could get 4th. We should be there easily but I think we will struggle.

Yeah, they don't have the squad depth and will have spells throughout the season where they suffer because of that. That's where Spurs (and maybe even Arsenal? ) will likely be more interesting to watch. But then Moyes has been keeping West Ham high up in the table through full seasons now (or just one season?), so maybe he'll manage again.

 

[Dave Smith]

West Ham is an interesting one. They've actually been on an upward trajectory for 18 months now and whilst they're in the Europa they have been rotating heavily and they look certain to get 1st which means straight to the last 16 which avoids 2 extra games.

For me, if they get a half decent striker to back up Antonio they may keep up the pace this season (although I could see them pulling a Leicester in the last 5-9 matches.)

 

[TMDaines]

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/soccer-predictions/premier-league/

West Ham now favoured over United for fourth. A few more weeks of this and West Ham will probably be seen as the better team by the model.

 

[Remember the geese]

That fourth spot is going to be fascinating. I have absolutely no idea how many teams are in the running for it, but realistically at least four or five of them will have their eyes on it. Maybe more. It's getting to the point that you just hope we are one of them come May. Sad state of affairs.

 

[Dancfc]

West Ham is an interesting one. They've actually been on an upward trajectory for 18 months now and whilst they're in the Europa they have been rotating heavily and they look certain to get 1st which means straight to the last 16 which avoids 2 extra games.

For me, if they get a half decent striker to back up Antonio they may keep up the pace this season (although I could see them pulling a Leicester in the last 5-9 matches.)

They already have sort of pulled a Leicester, last season as they were in 4th heading to the final straight with a favourable run in.

Another season in Europa will still be a decent achievement for them regardless but I think the pressure will get to them again if they end up in a top 4 race.

 

[::sonny::]

TOP 6
Chelsea
City
Liverpool
West Ham
Arsenal
Tottenham

 

[Guy Incognito]

West Ham is an interesting one. They've actually been on an upward trajectory for 18 months now and whilst they're in the Europa they have been rotating heavily and they look certain to get 1st which means straight to the last 16 which avoids 2 extra games.

For me, if they get a half decent striker to back up Antonio they may keep up the pace this season (although I could see them pulling a Leicester in the last 5-9 matches.)

Still need to play Man City, Chelsea, United, Spurs, Arsenal, Liverpool away from home.

Moyes's away record at some of those grounds is terrible.

 

[B. Munich]

I'm surprised not many mention Arsenal as a strong contender for a top 4 finish.
They clearly stabilized and can even overtake Liverpool, if they win the next match. Another big plus they don't have any international games to play.

 

[FootballHQ]

Top 3 is as predictable as it comes in terms of who'll finish in it.

4th pretty open as it stands but you'd expect Man. United at some stage to hit 4 or 5 match winning run and possibly pull clear.

 

[Botim]

The first page of this thread makes for some hilarious reading and should give anyone second thoughts about making any further predictions

I feel like these 4 have opened a gap on others and it’s the most predictable in years for top 4

Picking the top 4 in order be difficult but not the top 4 teams it’s nailed on

Brave of you to predict Arsenal will finish in the top 7. This could be the year they drop out of the top 10.

The top 4 this season will basically be a 4 way title race until the last couple of weeks.

 

[Tyrion]

The first page of this thread makes for some hilarious reading and should give anyone second thoughts about making any further predictions

To be fair, us finishing top 4 should be nailed on. We have the players to definitely get 4th at least.

 

[Snuffkin]

4th pretty open as it stands but you'd expect Man. United at some stage to hit 4 or 5 match winning run and possibly pull clear.

That's the theory and it's good enough for the Glazers. Probably not good enough for fans though, we're going to have to have an amazing run in Europe or another covid lockdown to stop protests in 2022.

 

[TMDaines]

I’m a bit relieved that West Ham are playing City next week. Might still only be six back from fourth, even with a loss to Chelsea.

 

[GuybrushThreepwood]

Don't clubs with one of the top 4 wage bills in league, finish in the top 4 positions something like 80% of the time? Of course Leicester during their miracle title season (and Tottenham under Pochettino were notable exceptions there.

A lot of people only took about net and gross transfer fees, when of course wages are a far bigger and more important driver of success than transfer fees, and I'm sure would correlate far more closely with final league positions.

I remember reading that Chelsea had the highest wage bill in the Premier League in 2000/2001 (it makes sense as the high-profile players that they were signing at the time were on very big money), but they finished 6th that season.

 

[giorno]

Don't clubs with one of the top 4 wage bills in league, finish in the top 4 positions something like 80% of the time?

Pretty much, yeah. Wage bill is the biggest correlation to on pitch success, you are correct in that regard

 

[Bestietom]

I still think 4th place is still up for grabs. A few teams still in the hunt for this spot.