I'm looking forward to this match up and it's gonna be interesting to see how both Ole and Nagelsmann approach the game.
It does seem like Nagelsmann prefers a variation of the back 3 formation whether that be 3-4-3 or 3-4-2-1. But he's also used a back 4 when he rested Lukas Klostermann against Schalke in a game they won 4-0 and he then proceeded to revert back to a 3 man back line in the very next game against Augsburg where he brought back Klostermann and partnered him with Upamecano and Halstenberg. Klostermann unfortunately suffered a knee injury in the game and will subsequently be out for several months and Nagelsmann has since used a back 4 in his absence but might be tempted to revert back to a 3 man back line against us if he feels the returning Ibrahima Konate is ready to start the game. Konate has been on the bench for the last few games but according to Nagelsmann he didn't feel he was ready to start a game just yet and was waiting for the opportune moment to start him in a game where he felt he could ease him in. But he did play the final 25 minutes against Istanbul in the UCL game on match day 1 so there's a outside chance he might play him from the start.
Leipzig will play as they always plays by building from the back patiently before trying to transition quickly once the ball is out of the first phase of the build up IMO. If he does play Konate and goes with a back 3 then expect one of the 3 CBs to step into midfield which will give them a numerical advantage in midfield and will open up passing lanes and create triangles which we should be mindful of. Off the ball they will apply high pressure and will attempt to cut off passing lanes and will try and shepherd our ball carriers to pass towards a designated wide receiver which will likely be Wan Bissaka, who I believe they will leave unmarked to set him up for the wide pressing trap. Konrad Laimer was normally the player for that job from midfield and he initiated the wide pressing trap in tandem with several other players superbly well. But he's out injured so they'll miss him in that regard. But I hope we don't attempt to play out from the back which right now doesn't suits us.
Another thing that Leipzig are very strong at is having players who can slot into several positions which allows them to change formation in-game which in-turn allows them to maintain structure in defensive or offensive transition.. Players like Tyler Adams who has been deployed at CB and midfield. Klostermann who is a fullback but has been deployed at CB. Angelino (ex City) who has been deployed at fullback/wingback/Left wing. Dani Olmo who has been deployed at wing forward and as a CAM. Forsberg who is a CAM but has also been deployed as a false #9 in a 3-4-3. Amadou Haidara a midfielder who is deployed as a wingback. I can go on but that's something we should be mindful of.
Konrad Laimer looks like he won't be playing so he will be a big miss for them. But Nagelsmann will likely use two of Kevin Kampl, Tyler Adams or Henrichs in a two man midfield who will provide the energy and legs in midfield. But what I'm interested in is will he start both Forsberg and Olmo in tandem. Both players have the guile and ingenuity to unlock defenses and will be dangerous if paired together and will have to be watched closely. Nagelsmann has deployed both players several times in the same line up so if he does play both then I'm expecting a 3-4-2-1 formation or even a 3-4-3 with Forsberg as the false #9 and Olmo as the LWF. Forsberg is also very dangerous on set pieces so we'll have to be mindful of that too but alot depends on if Nagelsmann feels Konate is ready to start. But it's very difficult to second second guess Nagelsmann due to his rotation of players.
For us I hope Ole starts Rashford with Martial because there's gonna be possibilities to get in behind which could cause Leipzig issues if we can advance play to a good level. If Konate doesn't play then I feel there's a possibility we could hurt them from set pieces with Maguire and Cavani potentially getting on the end of good deliveries from Telles or Fernandes. But the key is gonna be to stay disciplined and express ourselves in midfield and match Leipzig's high intensity. If we can manage that then we can win the game because we have quality players too.
That's a great post, thanks for explaining.
So we have two strategies available: fight fire with fire, or soak up pressure and hit on counter (eg PSG).
The RBL centre back issue sounds like it will be crucial and where United can really capitalise. And defensive discipline shouldn't be an issue for United, given what the team achieved vs PSG and Chelsea.
I'd love it if Ole picked a team that came out hard and fast. Try to get couple of goals in first 15 mins, and then we can consolidate. Feels like Axel, Telles, Fred and Rashford will all be key for pressing, crossing and speed.
What formation should United deploy?