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Misread the post. There was a hyperlink in the same link above that mentioned a study on opening drives/second drives but the link is dead.

Here's a short google search that brings up an article from 2014 but slightly outdated. Someone would need to crunch numbers for the past 4-5 seasons to get an updated number.

http://harvardsportsanalysis.org/2014/01/modeling-nfl-overtime-as-a-markov-chain/
After a kickoff, drives end with the following frequencies (all stats from www.pro-football-reference.com):

Defensive TD: .020

Safety: .001

No Score: .661

FG: .118

TD: .200
Thanks
 

cesc's_mullet

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Please keep comparing gaining 75 yards and scoring a touchdown to shooting a penalty. It's almost the same thing. They should just give the win to the winner of the coin toss, really.

Fact is that only 17% of OT games are decided by a TD on the first possession. That's an 83% chance it's not decided by a TD on the first possession.

I'm all for changing the rules. The rules are stupid. The rules have to change. Just like i believe that away goals is a stupid rule in the CL, and has to change. A goal is a goal, no? But those are the rules yesterday, today and tomorrow. Remember when the Pats beat the Broncos in OT after kicking to start the OT? Same rules, with a very different twist to it.
One team wins a coin toss and gets to go first in a score-first-and-win game.

Both scenarios are the same in that respect. Yes there are more variables with the NFL version, but the point is the team that simply wins the toss gets the first, and potentially only, crack at it.

That's just not right, which was my point.
 

Skåre Willoch

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One team wins a coin toss and gets to go first in a score-first-and-win game.

Both scenarios are the same in that respect. Yes there are more variables with the NFL version, but the point is the team that simply wins the toss gets the first, and potentially only, crack at it.

That's just not right, which was my point.
And we agree on the fact that it isn't fair. But the comparison with kicking a penalty is really not the same at all. The variables makes all the difference. Again, I've now seen numbers between 17% and 20% chance of a first possession TD. What are the numbers for the first penalty in a shootout? My guess is that it's waaaay higher than 17 - 20%. Something like 60%? 70%? Higher?
And as mentioned earlier, winning the game with a field goal on second possession isn't really fair either. The rules are bad no matter how you look at it.
 

Skåre Willoch

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Fair enough I thought the first team could only get a TD to win.
They can win it with a FG, but then the opposing team gets a chance to score as well. Which gives the second team a massive benefit if the first team fails to score, or only scores a FG.
 

Sylar

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And as mentioned earlier, winning the game with a field goal on second possession isn't really fair either. The rules are bad no matter how you look at it.
But in that circumstance both offences would have had the ball and would have needed to drive the same amount more or less (unless there's a turnover).
 

lsd

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Brady was great. Mahomes was better, but the pats D was better than the Chiefs and the game was decided by a coin toss

For once though, at least it wasn't Andy Reid's fault

You sure about it not being Andy Reids fault ?
 

lsd

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Surprised by how many here are bringing up the current OT setup. Much bigger issue/travesty for me yesterday was the Saints getting screwed on the non pass interference call. NFL needs to fix that shit.

The did miss a blatant face mask on Goff as well which cost the Rams
 

Skåre Willoch

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Didn't they go 4-1 in the five games he missed a season or two ago? That's good system design that doesn't rely on a special QB being special all the time
Part of the system is (at least has been) that Brady takes discounted deals to make the system work. He knows he needs a decent team around him (which is rarely a great team, mind you). There aren't many other QBs who's doing the same. If other QBs actually cared about winning, not only stacking cash, they should do the same. They should become the system as well, or at least try to make the system better. Rumor has it that Mahomes will be getting a $200m deal when eligible. How are they gonna build a team around him with that kind of salary? It will literally feck up the system that works so well for them right now.

Also, the one full season Brady was out, the Patriots missed the playoffs. With an 11-5 record, sure, but the only season they've not qualified for the playoffs in 16 or so years is the one season Brady was out.
 

Eboue

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Part of the system is (at least has been) that Brady takes discounted deals to make the system work. He knows he needs a decent team around him (which is rarely a great team, mind you). There aren't many other QBs who's doing the same. If other QBs actually cared about winning, not only stacking cash, they should do the same. They should become the system as well, or at least try to make the system better. Rumor has it that Mahomes will be getting a $200m deal when eligible. How are they gonna build a team around him with that kind of salary? It will literally feck up the system that works so well for them right now.

Also, the one full season Brady was out, the Patriots missed the playoffs. With an 11-5 record, sure, but the only season they've not qualified for the playoffs in 16 or so years is the one season Brady was out.

Blah blah blah


Most quarterbacks dont have a wife with a net worth of $300 million
 

RobinLFC

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London games
Bengals @ Rams
Panthers @ Bucs
Bears @ Raiders
Texans @ Jags

Mexico game
Chiefs @ Chargers

Might buy a combi ticket, sell the other three games on TicketSwap and go to the Texans game if prices are somewhat reasonable.
 

Skåre Willoch

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Blah blah blah


Most quarterbacks dont have a wife with a net worth of $300 million
And most people don't need $200m, they can cope with $100m.

You do see my point, though? If you want to get as rich as possible, that's fine. If you want to win and create a legacy for yourself, that is fine as well. The two don't necessarily go so well together.

A quick look at the last few super bowls indicate that teams with QBs not in the upper echelon of salaries have a great chance of reaching the great game. For obvious reasons.
 

RobinLFC

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And most people don't need $200m, they can cope with $100m.

You do see my point, though? If you want to get as rich as possible, that's fine. If you want to win and create a legacy for yourself, that is fine as well. The two don't necessarily go so well together.

A quick look at the last few super bowls indicate that teams with QBs not in the upper echelon of salaries have a great chance of reaching the great game. For obvious reasons.
That's such bullshit.

You can have an expensive QB and win multiple titles. Likewise, Mahomes could take a paycut for the benefit of the team and never reach the Super Bowl in his career. It's totally normal that he won't take that risk and gets his paycheck, especially with the possibility that your whole career can be done on any given snap.
 

Eboue

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And most people don't need $200m, they can cope with $100m.

You do see my point, though? If you want to get as rich as possible, that's fine. If you want to win and create a legacy for yourself, that is fine as well. The two don't necessarily go so well together.

A quick look at the last few super bowls indicate that teams with QBs not in the upper echelon of salaries have a great chance of reaching the great game. For obvious reasons.
Quarterbacks on rookie deals is the current inefficiency as I've talked about on here before. It's just a bit much to praise brady for giving up a few million when his wife has 100 times that at home and not even mention that part.
 

Man of Leisure

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Quarterbacks on rookie deals is the current inefficiency as I've talked about on here before. It's just a bit much to praise brady for giving up a few million when his wife has 100 times that at home and not even mention that part.
Such an advantage. This was why the Seahawks were able to be so good for that long stretch when Russell Wilson was on his rookie contract.
 

Skåre Willoch

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That's such bullshit.

You can have an expensive QB and win multiple titles. Likewise, Mahomes could take a paycut for the benefit of the team and never reach the Super Bowl in his career. It's totally normal that he won't take that risk and gets his paycheck, especially with the possibility that your whole career can be done on any given snap.
Of course it's possible, but it's rare. More rare than the opposite, actually.

https://ftw.usatoday.com/2018/02/nfl-quarterback-salaries-salary-cap-kirk-cousins-free-agency

Of course you need a decent front office and luck/skill in the draft, but there's literally no correlation between paying your QB a ton of money and winning trophies.


Quarterbacks on rookie deals is the current inefficiency as I've talked about on here before. It's just a bit much to praise brady for giving up a few million when his wife has 100 times that at home and not even mention that part.
Alright, so he has other sources of wealth than football. Brady is lucky in all parts of life, I guess.

It doesn't change the fact that giving up a chunk of your salary as a QB gives you a better chance of throwing to better receivers, or being protected by better linemen, or not giving up as many points as you score.
 
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JJ12

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The hate/ignorance is astonishing.

Brady being the GOAT isn't in question, hasn't been a debate for years either. Aaron Rodgers isn't even top 5 for feck sake.
 

HTG

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I guess Brady’s reputation suffers, aside from his horrible character and general douchiness, mostly from the sheer unimpressiveness and incredible dullness of that NE offense. It’s just so boring to watch all those short passes and it looks pretty simple.
It obviously isn’t and the mental composure and the decision making he is constantly showing, are very impressive and unrivaled amongst QBs. It’s even more impressive, that they just keep doing it, now that his arm is clearly getting weaker. They just stopped going deep, work the field and wait for the opposition to make mistakes.
It’s mindnumbingly boring, but so hard to do and perfectly executed. Brady will never be loved outside of NE, I guess, as he’s just to boring of a player and not likable enough as a person, but when the best QB is the one, who gives you the best shot at winning, there’s absolutely no doubt it‘s Brady.
 

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RoadTrip

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You know, I love this thread throughout the year. But when we get to the playoff end of the season it just becomes a bit tedious. It’s the same old same old reasons to love Brady or hate Brady.

I’m pretty tired of hearing the same arguments year on year, between the same people on both sides of the fence who aren’t going to change their same year on year views.

As a Patriots fan (and one who on occasion has certainly been lured in to the afformentioned tedious discussion) I would much prefer we were sat here discussing how BB and co. schemed a brilliant game in the first half, that Mahomes could be a transcendent quarterback (if the things he’s already doing aren’t that), that the OT rule sucks (ok we’ve had a lot of that), that the officiating or challenge system needs reworking because the Saints missed call was a joke (on that, why can’t you challenge that by the way? Sure it’s a judgement call, but so is all the other stuff. Not going to waste more time as you got limited challenges, and you could ruthlessly apply the “need clear evidence” threshold to overturn it), but most of all, how great the two games actually were. Instead we ramble on about stuff that’s just irrelevant.
 

RobinLFC

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I guess Brady’s reputation suffers, aside from his horrible character and general douchiness, mostly from the sheer unimpressiveness and incredible dullness of that NE offense. It’s just so boring to watch all those short passes and it looks pretty simple.
Nail on the head if you ask me. I've got a few friends who only follow the NFL with a mild interest, and the fact they don't want the Pats to win it is indeed because they think they're just boring, they don't have special players, don't do anything special, they just win games without exciting plays and whatnot. I can see where they're coming from to be honest, but like you say it's not as clear cut as that obviously.
 

RobinLFC

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You know, I love this thread throughout the year. But when we get to the playoff end of the season it just becomes a bit tedious. It’s the same old same old reasons to love Brady or hate Brady.

I’m pretty tired of hearing the same arguments year on year, between the same people on both sides of the fence who aren’t going to change their same year on year views.

As a Patriots fan (and one who on occasion has certainly been lured in to the afformentioned tedious discussion) I would much prefer we were sat here discussing how BB and co. schemed a brilliant game in the first half, that Mahomes could be a transcendent quarterback (if the things he’s already doing aren’t that), that the OT rule sucks (ok we’ve had a lot of that), that the officiating or challenge system needs reworking because the Saints missed call was a joke (on that, why can’t you challenge that by the way? Sure it’s a judgement call, but so is all the other stuff. Not going to waste more time as you got limited challenges, and you could ruthlessly apply the “need clear evidence” threshold to overturn it), but most of all, how great the two games actually were. Instead we ramble on about stuff that’s just irrelevant.
They were both great games yeah, but the first one left me with a bad taste in the mouth because there's no way the Saints lose that game if the officiating gets the call right. Second one is similar in that many people, regardless of who's playing, think the OT rules are crap (I agree).

The Pats have been unreal this POs though. They have 40 first downs in their first halves compared to 39 combined plays for the Chargers and Chiefs. That's simply fecking amazing, and credit where it's due.
 

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Nail on the head if you ask me. I've got a few friends who only follow the NFL with a mild interest, and the fact they don't want the Pats to win it is indeed because they think they're just boring, they don't have special players, don't do anything special, they just win games without exciting plays and whatnot. I can see where they're coming from to be honest, but like you say it's not as clear cut as that obviously.
I guess Brady’s reputation suffers, aside from his horrible character and general douchiness, mostly from the sheer unimpressiveness and incredible dullness of that NE offense. It’s just so boring to watch all those short passes and it looks pretty simple.
It obviously isn’t and the mental composure and the decision making he is constantly showing, are very impressive and unrivaled amongst QBs. It’s even more impressive, that they just keep doing it, now that his arm is clearly getting weaker. They just stopped going deep, work the field and wait for the opposition to make mistakes.
It’s mindnumbingly boring, but so hard to do and perfectly executed. Brady will never be loved outside of NE, I guess, as he’s just to boring of a player and not likable enough as a person, but when the best QB is the one, who gives you the best shot at winning, there’s absolutely no doubt it‘s Brady.

I think that’s a pretty fair view too tbh.

Without sounding arrogant, the reality is also that people don’t like winners. Like no one liked United or Liverpool when they dominated. No one liked Australia in cricket.

It’s not always the case, but perennial winners just aren’t liked.

Obviously, it’d be wrong to ignore the “extra” stuff too for why people don’t like the Pats which is fair enough.
 

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They were both great games yeah, but the first one left me with a bad taste in the mouth because there's no way the Saints lose that game if the officiating gets the call right. Second one is similar in that many people, regardless of who's playing, think the OT rules are crap (I agree).

The Pats have been unreal this POs though. They have 40 first downs in their first halves compared to 39 combined plays for the Chargers and Chiefs. That's simply fecking amazing, and credit where it's due.
Agree. When I saw we won, I was like feck yeah. When I realised it was in OT and Mahomes didn’t get a chance, it’s kind of like ffs.(full disclosure: obviously that’s partly because I knew what’s be going on in this thread :lol: )

Re: the Saints yeah I agree. Hence was one of the things on my list we should be talking about.
 

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Nail on the head if you ask me. I've got a few friends who only follow the NFL with a mild interest, and the fact they don't want the Pats to win it is indeed because they think they're just boring, they don't have special players, don't do anything special, they just win games without exciting plays and whatnot. I can see where they're coming from to be honest, but like you say it's not as clear cut as that obviously.
They have special guys doing special things all the time. Gronk was blocking like a machine yesterday. That was pretty special. Edelman’s composure in important situations is damn special. But it’s all so boring to watch. So damn boring. If Brady played like Rodgers or Mahomes, it would be so much more fun and I wouldn't mind them winning so much.
 

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They have special guys doing special things all the time. Gronk was blocking like a machine yesterday. That was pretty special. Edelman’s composure in important situations is damn special. But it’s all so boring to watch. So damn boring. If Brady played like Rodgers or Mahomes, it would be so much more fun and I wouldn't mind them winning so much.
Pretty common right. People probably enjoyed watching Ronaldinho’s flair compared to other high quality players who just weren’t as fun but probably as productive.
 

HTG

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Re: the Saints yeah I agree. Hence was one of the things on my list we should be talking about.
I thought it was wonderful. Payton’s face gave me satisfaction deeper than anything else sports could ever accomplish. I love to see the monster lose. I hope they get back to the NFC final and lose, due to an even worse decision next year.
 

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I thought it was wonderful. Payton’s face gave me satisfaction deeper than anything else sports could ever accomplish. I love to see the monster lose. I hope they get back to the NFC final and lose, due to an even worse decision next year.
Why the hate? Have I missed something?
 

lsd

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The hate/ignorance is astonishing.

Brady being the GOAT isn't in question, hasn't been a debate for years either. Aaron Rodgers isn't even top 5 for feck sake.

How many superbowl would both players have if Rodgers played for Pats and Brady for the Packers?
 

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Also, if I can give some perspective on the Patriots game without just defaulting to overtime being why we won...

If I’m a Chiefs fan, I’m mega mega upset.

- Brady turned it over half-a-yard-to-go on a poor play.
- Didn’t turn the ball over.
- Got some luck picking Brady off again on a tip.
- Got a third INT to end the game, ruled a foul because a lineman made a really dumb mistake.
- Got the huge plays people were expecting and needed, albeit in the second half only.
- Had the Pats in 3rd and 10 a multitude of times and couldn’t make a stop, or even force a fourth down decision.
- Stopped a 4th and 1.

And still lost. I’d be pissed off that my team didn’t get a chance in OT, but i would also know the game shouldn’t have gotten there. There aren’t going to be so many games when the Pats give teams such a chance.
 
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RobinLFC

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Also, if I can give some perspective on the Patriots game without just defaulting to overtime being why we won...

If I’m a Chiefs fan, I’m mega mega upset.

- Brady turned it over half-a-yard-to-go on a poor play.
- Didn’t turn the ball over.
- Got some luck picking Brady off again on a tip.
- Got a third INT to end the game, ruled a foul because a lineman made a really dumb mistake.
- Got the huge plays people were expecting and needed, albeit in the second half only.
- Had the Pats in 3rd and 10 a multitude of times and couldn’t make a stop, or even force a fourth down decision.

And still lost. I’d be pissed off that my team didn’t get a chance in OT, but i would also know the game shouldn’t have gotten there. There aren’t going to be so many games when the Pats give teams such a chance.
And they let them convert 3 seperate 3th & 10s in OT which is inexcusable. I've said all season long that their D wasn't good enough and would eventually cost them, and they did.
 

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Why the hate? Have I missed something?
You must have heard of bountygate? If there was such a thing as justice, Payton wouldn’t be allowed to coach anymore and would have done time in jail.
 

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And they let them convert 3 seperate 3th & 10s in OT which is inexcusable. I've said all season long that their D wasn't good enough and would eventually cost them, and they did.
Their inside linebackers are a disaster. The rest is good enough. But Ragland and especially Hitchens just don’t cut it on that level.