It is concerning that Ole's best spell (results wise) of football was his first 20 games in charge.
We are all aware of the fabled 'new manager bounce' phenomena and the surrounding context/atmosphere at the club prior to his arrival but his first 20 games in charge statistically outstrip any of the following 20 game stretches. (75% wins, the next best being 65% between games 60-80).
It becomes difficult to keep faith when you consider that in spite of the turmoil Mou created from the 2018 summer window onwards, this is the period Ole got the best response/output from the players. The fact that he has since had several transfer windows and ample time to stamp his mark on the team but has failed to replicate this early form on a consistent basis should disconcert us all.
Let us remember that the team he initially took over lumbered him with caf pariahs such as Lukaku, Sanchez, Young, Smalling, Darmian and Lingard (a few of which he had no viable alternatives to and pretty much had to regularly select whether he liked it or not) which only further confuses the issue. Why was he able to get a better tune out of these misfits than any of those of whom he has deemed necessary since?
The following 20 games (Games 20-40) saw United winning only a quarter of their matches. Things have stabilised since with the win % bobbing between 55% and 65% through the remaining 60 games. This averages out to 56% across all comps up to this point.
If we are to take a positive it would be that when looked at in 40 game sets (0-40, 20-60, 40-80, 60-100), the win % is at its highest within the last 40 games (62.5% compared to 50%, 40% and 60% across the periods prior). However, there is not a lot in the stats to substantiate any claims of marked improvement across the 100 game period.
If we play devil’s advocate and remove his caretaker spell/ honeymoon then we end up with a win % of 51.9% across all competitions with a loss % of 25.9% (this reduces to 24% across his entire tenure). Effectively we are due a lose once every two weeks.
Our goal scoring appears to have been somewhat consistent as well, if we treat the appalling spell between games 20-40 as an anomaly.
Games 0-20 - 42 goals scored
games 20-40 - 16 goals scored
games 40-60 - 37 goals scored
games 60-80 - 44 goals scored
games 80-100 - 42 goals scored.
Goals against average out at 1 per game with a low of 11 conceded in 20 and a high of 26 in 20 (19, 26, 19, 11 and 25). There is not enough variation to say anything other than we have consistently conceded somewhere close to an average of a goal a game throughout most of his spell.
It is of course not all about stats and points etc., but they can help to allow us to compare periods free from the emotive connection we attached at the time they occurred.
Such stats combined with my own instinctive response to watching the games leads me to strongly question the suitability of Ole for the job. In failing to generate better outcomes than proved possible with a reportedly "beleaguered/oppressed" set of players that he had little time to assess or coach and many of which he has since deemed surplus to requirements, Ole has flattered to deceive and leaves me with little confidence of results commensurate with the potential of the team.
It makes it hard to offer genuine credit for the first 20 games, above and beyond helping to relieve the festering atmosphere Mou left in his wake. Even then, how much of that rebound is simply the inevitable result of shedding the toxic aura of Jose? Could any moderately qualified manager have ridden the feel good factor that emerged and achieved similar results? (Of course this is a musing reliant on hindsight).
Fernandes’s January introduction brought about a similar feel good factor that we rode the fumes out of, to great effect (if we create a bespoke 20 game set around this we see a 70% win rate). Now dissipated, we sit on the precipice of a run of form comparable to games 20-40. I sincerely hope that isn’t the case.
The 90’s were my formative years in a footballing sense and thus you can imagine the fondness I hold for Solskjaer and his team mates from that period, I take no pleasure in drawing the conclusion that he has failed to provide enough tangible evidence of building a team that can surpass the outcomes of the last 5 years, let alone fully scale the PL mountain.