Population growth

[Pogue Mahone]

So the world is burning. And when you think about it, the single biggest driver is the fact there are more and more people on the planet every year. Using more resources, creating more CO2, eating into forests and green spaces that could fix the CO2 and slow down global warming. We’re also poisoning our rivers and seas with the detritus that this expanding population is creating.

It’s a bit of elephant in the room though. Individually, we’re told to manage our carbon footprint and there’s a half hearted attempt to rein in corporations with carbon tax and levies. Yet you don’t hear much (anything?) about aggressive population control. Is that even a thing? Could it be a thing? Should it be a thing?

The fastest growing countries/regions are in the developing world? Is that fair enough? They’re catching up to the rest of the world in terms of finally having the resources to have large families. So that’s their perogative.

The flip side are the slowest growing countries worried about going broke as their population gets older, without enough births to balance things out. So there’s that.

It’s complicated. But it doesn’t get talked about enough IMO. Should really be front and centre in every discussion about the climate crisis.

 

[Snow]

CO2 footprint issue is a bit of a lost cause because not enough countries are taking it seriously, especially those with the most people and manufacturing. Africa, S-America, almost all of N-America and Asia don't give a feck. It's only a handful of countries actually trying to put some brakes on but even those countries are giving the worst offenders discount.

There's only two options available and they're the same for if you're in charge or not. You make noise every day like Thunberg because there's not nearly enough being done or you do nothing because doing nothing and doing what we do now doesn't make much of a different. Most people choose to do nothing because they'll only live for a tiny bit and honestly who can blame them at this point.

 

[Tarrou]

population growth in the developing countries will slow down as they become more developed due to better healthcare (eg vaccines) and a better educated population

I think it’s projected the world will reach peak population within 100 years due to this factor

china is gonna have a big problem soon due to their one child policy having messed up their age demographics

 

[Amar__]

I don't think it's a big problem as some egoistic people would make you believe. There is more than enough place for us all. We don't have to live in big cities as people think.

The problem is the modern world and availability of all those products that people can buy and increase the global warming. I find it amazing that we concentrate on pretty normal stuff that happened always like increasing population, but we don't concentrate on stuff like every idiot owning a private jet, 5-10 cars in their garage, people being allowed to order from places like Amazon instead of going to their local market or produce their own food, so much resources and energy wasted on wars and developing weapons, etc.

I wouldn't be surprised if modern countries convince their citizens that over population is a big thing and that they should stop giving birth, while their politican who supports that go to average meeting with 5 cars as his security support. Same as they convinced us to buy EV cars by helping us buy that car, instead of investing those subsidies in giving us better public transport.

 

[Scandi Red]

I think it’s projected the world will reach peak population within 100 years due to this factor

I think it's close to 15 years since I first read about how the world's population will peak before the end of the century. Back then the peak was projected to be around 12 or 13 billion, but the researchers really underestimated how quickly the rest of the world would catch up to the developed world in terms of low birth rates. I don't remember how much lower the peak is expected to be, but it's below 11 billion already. I've seen predictions even going as low as 9 billion.

 

[Massive Spanner]

Developed nations are absolutely fecked. In 20 years we will all be competing to try and get young immigrants in from African and Asian countries. in Ireland our over 65 population is going to double in 20 years, double! Our health service can’t even cope with the current numbers.

 

[horsechoker]

I've stopped having sex to prevent population growth

 

[Scandi Red]

I've stopped having sex to prevent population growth

To be honest, I was more worried about you and the horses starting a new pandemic.

 

[Red in STL]

I don't think it's a big problem as some egoistic people would make you believe. There is more than enough place for us all. We don't have to live in big cities as people think.

The problem is the modern world and availability of all those products that people can buy and increase the global warming. I find it amazing that we concentrate on pretty normal stuff that happened always like increasing population, but we don't concentrate on stuff like every idiot owning a private jet, 5-10 cars in their garage, people being allowed to order from places like Amazon instead of going to their local market or produce their own food, so much resources and energy wasted on wars and developing weapons, etc.

I wouldn't be surprised if modern countries convince their citizens that over population is a big thing and that they should stop giving birth, while their politican who supports that go to average meeting with 5 cars as his security support. Same as they convinced us to buy EV cars by helping us buy that car, instead of investing those subsidies in giving us better public transport.

A few problems with that, the birth rate in most modern countries is way down and has been for years, so much so that the pension provision is unsustainable in it's present format

Modern countries are doing their utmost to restrict immigration, most of these countries need immigration to function properly, as for EV's, it's cheaper to invest in subsidies than it is to improve public transport to an acceptable level

The real problem is modern capitalism, it needs an ever expanding market to succeed and that ultimately requires more people

 

[pascell]

I've stopped having sex to prevent population growth

It wasn't by choice either, was it

 

[Dr. Dwayne]

We used to have massive wars to sort this sort of thing out.

 

[Red in STL]

We used to have massive wars to sort this sort of thing out.

Obviously didn't work though, I mean after WW2 the US population exploded when sex-starved GI's got home, I suspect it also happened elsewhere!

 

[RedC]

Asians be bangin'

 

[Scandi Red]

Asians be bangin'

More like Africa. East-Asia has some of the lowest birthrates in the world.

 

[Amar__]

A few problems with that, the birth rate in most modern countries is way down and has been for years, so much so that the pension provision is unsustainable in it's present format

Modern countries are doing their utmost to restrict immigration, most of these countries need immigration to function properly, as for EV's, it's cheaper to invest in subsidies than it is to improve public transport to an acceptable level

The real problem is modern capitalism, it needs an ever expanding market to succeed and that ultimately requires more people

All those problems are there because countries/people in charge and different lobbies don't want to change them, not because they aren't fixable.

Regarding EV, that's simply not true, and I'll give you one simple argument:

https://www.greenpeace.org/eu-unit/...ort-too-expensive-in-many-european-countries/

Croatia on top, and do you know how much money EU and Croatia invested in Rimac's company? Literally millions of euros that would solve expensive public transport for such a small population - millions invested in a company that makes 2000hp hypercars. Just because he makes EV cars, it doesn't matter because they are super luxury hypercars, as long as they are EV by the looks of it they'll get subsidies from EU.

 

[Dr. Dwayne]

Obviously didn't work though, I mean after WW2 the US population exploded when sex-starved GI's got home, I suspect it also happened elsewhere!

The baby boom is an artificial stat because it carries from the immediate post-war period into 1964. That's nearly 20 years.

WWII resulted in over 50 million dead. The baby boom average was a little over 4 million babies a year. I think massive global conflict is the answer.

 

[Carolina Red]

Is this a safe space for me to nerd out about the Demographic Transition Model and Population Pyramids?

 

[Redplane]

Is this a safe space for me to nerd out about the Demographic Transition Model and Population Pyramids?

As long as you're open to having your sanity questioned.

 

[Carolina Red]

As long as you're open to having your sanity questioned.

I’m good with it.

This topic (and that DTM stuff) is a massive part of the AP course I teach.

The best thing a country can do to get population stability is to empower women with healthcare, education, and economic freedom & opportunity.

 

[berbatrick]

China has a pretty quickly declining population, with a fertility barely above 1.2. They will lose millions in the coming decades (as will Korea and Japan). India's fertility dropped below replacement last year. All of the west (except the US, which is driven by migration) is comfortably below replacement.
Why do these matter? Because OP mentioned climate change, and in that context -

 

[Carolina Red]

India's fertility dropped below replacement last year.

This is very good news

 

[nimic]

So the world is burning. And when you think about it, the single biggest driver is the fact there are more and more people on the planet every year. Using more resources, creating more CO2, eating into forests and green spaces that could fix the CO2 and slow down global warming. We’re also poisoning our rivers and seas with the detritus that this expanding population is creating.

It’s a bit of elephant in the room though. Individually, we’re told to manage our carbon footprint and there’s a half hearted attempt to rein in corporations with carbon tax and levies. Yet you don’t hear much (anything?) about aggressive population control. Is that even a thing? Could it be a thing? Should it be a thing?

The fastest growing countries/regions are in the developing world? Is that fair enough? They’re catching up to the rest of the world in terms of finally having the resources to have large families. So that’s their perogative.

The flip side are the slowest growing countries worried about going broke as their population gets older, without enough births to balance things out. So there’s that.

It’s complicated. But it doesn’t get talked about enough IMO. Should really be front and centre in every discussion about the climate crisis.

That graph isn't strictly misleading, in that it's perfectly factual, but it's missing some important information. Namely that China and India (maybe not India? It'll probably grow for a bit and then go back down) are going to drop by hundreds of millions by 2100. China might be halved. At the same time we're going to get a growing population in Africa, as all those kids grow up and have their own kids, but it's going to stabilize there too.

Basically, there is no global population crisis. There might be some issues in Africa, obviously.

 

[Cheimoon]

I think it's close to 15 years since I first read about how the world's population will peak before the end of the century. Back then the peak was projected to be around 12 or 13 billion, but the researchers really underestimated how quickly the rest of the world would catch up to the developed world in terms of low birth rates. I don't remember how much lower the peak is expected to be, but it's below 11 billion already. I've seen predictions even going as low as 9 billion.

Exactly. Continued population growth really isn't the issue it's often made out to be. And the best solution to it is ensuring good overall wellbeing, health, education, and general prosperity (which should anyway be global goals), not disincentive campaigns or things like that.

 

[Pogue Mahone]

China has a pretty quickly declining population, with a fertility barely above 1.2. They will lose millions in the coming decades (as will Korea and Japan). India's fertility dropped below replacement last year. All of the west (except the US, which is driven by migration) is comfortably below replacement.
Why do these matter? Because OP mentioned climate change, and in that context -

“Middle East A” miles ahead of everyone else. A lot of middle eastern countries amongst the fastest growing.

 

[Hugh Jass]

Developed nations are absolutely fecked. In 20 years we will all be competing to try and get young immigrants in from African and Asian countries. in Ireland our over 65 population is going to double in 20 years, double! Our health service can’t even cope with the current numbers.

I agree.

 

[Fridge chutney]

We are all domed.

 

[Fridge chutney]

That graph isn't strictly misleading, in that it's perfectly factual, but it's missing some important information. Namely that China and India (maybe not India? It'll probably grow for a bit and then go back down) are going to drop by hundreds of millions by 2100. China might be halved. At the same time we're going to get a growing population in Africa, as all those kids grow up and have their own kids, but it's going to stabilize there too.

Basically, there is no global population crisis. There might be some issues in Africa, obviously.

Interesting, maybe we are not doomed after all. We just need Elon Musk to keep pumping out Teslas and we should be alright.

 

[Charlie Foley]

I’m good with it.

This topic (and that DTM stuff) is a massive part of the AP course I teach.

The best thing a country can do to get population stability is to empower women with healthcare, education, and economic freedom & opportunity.

 

[Charlie Foley]

We are all domed.

 

[Carolina Red]

My man knew his demographic geography!

 

[Red in STL]

The baby boom is an artificial stat because it carries from the immediate post-war period into 1964. That's nearly 20 years.

WWII resulted in over 50 million dead. The baby boom average was a little over 4 million babies a year. I think massive global conflict is the answer.

Was the 4 million a year worldwide of just the US?

 

[berbatrick]

“Middle East A” miles ahead of everyone else. A lot of middle eastern countries amongst the fastest growing.

Literally single-digit million people, if they're growing quickly, it's from a tiny, tiny base. Not a meaningful contributor to emissions (unlike the US or China). They will have an impact on emissions however, as oil producing companies and countries - which is generally where the problem with climate action lies.

 

[4bars]

Another question is. All this graphs and numbers panting CO2 emissions in China and India should be all accounted to them as per capita or partially should be added to the western per capita? lots of things that we buy are produced in developing countries so we are the cause of those emisions

 

[Ish]

So the world is burning. And when you think about it, the single biggest driver is the fact there are more and more people on the planet every year. Using more resources, creating more CO2, eating into forests and green spaces that could fix the CO2 and slow down global warming. We’re also poisoning our rivers and seas with the detritus that this expanding population is creating.

It’s a bit of elephant in the room though. Individually, we’re told to manage our carbon footprint and there’s a half hearted attempt to rein in corporations with carbon tax and levies. Yet you don’t hear much (anything?) about aggressive population control. Is that even a thing? Could it be a thing? Should it be a thing?

The fastest growing countries/regions are in the developing world? Is that fair enough? They’re catching up to the rest of the world in terms of finally having the resources to have large families. So that’s their perogative.

The flip side are the slowest growing countries worried about going broke as their population gets older, without enough births to balance things out. So there’s that.

It’s complicated. But it doesn’t get talked about enough IMO. Should really be front and centre in every discussion about the climate crisis.

So many African countries on that list of fastest going population %. Young population, massive youth unemployment and other issues facing the youth as well.

 

[Bubz27]

This is why they invented covid and all the jabs after. Population control. That's what my mate on Facebook said.

 

[Buster15]

I've stopped having sex to prevent population growth

Don't be so hard on yourself.

 

[Red the Bear]

One could imagine how bad it could get if we find a way to exponentially increase our normal life span otherwise I think we'd be fine, world is big as is.

 

[Red in STL]

One could imagine how bad it could get if we find a way to exponentially increase our normal life span otherwise I think we'd be fine, world is big as is.

In a sense we already have, diet, vaccines, regulated working hours, sanitation over the last 200 years or so have dramatically increased the normal life expectancy

 

[surf]

Population growth is affecting much more than the climate crisis. Humans are gobbling up more and more of the planet for our own use and at the same time pushing out the other animals and plants. David Attenborough made this point earlier in the week.

 

[Red the Bear]

In a sense we already have, diet, vaccines, regulated working hours, sanitation over the last 200 years or so have dramatically increased the normal life expectancy

Well this is the result and I'd assume it could get much worse if we say could increase the average to 200.