I like City to win it even without Messi. With him, they're going to win in a walk.
I think age, a thin squad, the team's frantic style, and number of minutes played by the front three over the last few years will catch up to Liverpool. Then again, I said that last summer too. Chelsea will run Liverpool close in a battle for second and third but neither will touch City.
United, Spurs, and Arsenal will compete for fourth with the key factors being what gets done in the rest of the window and which team gets the luckiest with injuries.
Leicester and Wolves will both fall off the pace as their lack of squad depth gets tested by juggling the league and European football, but they could compete for 6th if everything breaks right. I think Everton could also be in that category depending on their transfer business as they'll have the advantage of not being in Europe and Carlo will have had much more time to mold his squad.