Pretty much. Technically Brighton can get 76 points as they have games in hand but they have a really tough run in.
Race for top 4 | Finito.
- Thread starter Andycoleno9
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Yes mathematically Brighton and Newcastle could end up at 76 and 77. So mathematically we need to reach a maximum of 77 ( given our poor GD) but realistically it shouldn't be any higher than 72 or 73.
They still have yet to play each other again? So they both can't end up on 76/77.
Yes they can, if Brighton win all games and Newcastle only lose to Brighton.
Ah, I thought you meant that's the maximum points both can get. Didn't realise you factored that in already.
I only worry about us if we lose any more crucial players out of Bruno, Rashford, Antony, Casemiro and Shaw.
We absolutely need all five in the next few weeks.
We absolutely need all five in the next few weeks.
If we beat Spurs on Thursday they're virtually out of it; we'd be nine points clear with two games in hand.
I was just trying to calculate the maximum total we need mathematically to get top-4. This will be in the scenario when Brighton and Newcastle get top-4. If there is any other combo in top-4 then we will need less mathematically. But we all know football is not math
, so most likely 72 ish should get us top-4.One win Thursday and should be good. Even just two draws against spurs and Brighton should do it
70 will probably do it, but not definitely. 72 definitely does it.I was just trying to calculate the maximum total we need mathematically to get top-4. This will be in the scenario when Brighton and Newcastle get top-4. If there is any other combo in top-4 then we will need less mathematically. But we all know football is not math
Lads, top 4 is done. Let's focus on FA Cup. 2 trophies and Top 4 will be excellent first season for ETH.
FA Cup is tough. We need to beat both Brighton and City to win. But on our day we are a match for any team especially at neutral ground.
FA Cup is tough. We need to beat both Brighton and City to win. But on our day we are a match for any team especially at neutral ground.
Called it yesterday, Liverpool will finish above spurs. Whether that’s 5th or 6th it doesn’t really matter but they were never in with a chance of getting 4th.
Next week will be the last tough week fixture congestion wise...after that United finally go to 1 game a week,...the squad will feel like its Christmas and EtH can take a breath as well. With only the Chelsea game having to be played during the week at the end of May.
City in the FA Cup Final is a week after the league finishes.
City in the FA Cup Final is a week after the league finishes.
I don't expect us to throw it away from this position, but we still have it in us to make us sweat and make unnecessarily hard work of it, depending on if one of Liverpool/Brighton/Spurs put a winning run together to potentially close the gap.
Our next 4 are Spurs away, Villa home, Brighton away, West Ham away.
That's not an easy run with 3 top half sides and West Ham starting to look decent again, 3 of them away from home. As long as we find say 6 points we should be fine, but we really don't want to be going into the last couple of games of the season needing 3 points, my heart can't take it.
Please just go beat Spurs and Villa and put this thing to bed. We don't want to give any of the chasing teams any encouragement.
Our next 4 are Spurs away, Villa home, Brighton away, West Ham away.
That's not an easy run with 3 top half sides and West Ham starting to look decent again, 3 of them away from home. As long as we find say 6 points we should be fine, but we really don't want to be going into the last couple of games of the season needing 3 points, my heart can't take it.
Please just go beat Spurs and Villa and put this thing to bed. We don't want to give any of the chasing teams any encouragement.
Brighton actually have a tough run of fixtures which is good for us. Same with Villa. Liverpool have possibly the easiest run in but might have left it too late and would need to be perfect.
Top four is set.
if we can get atleast 3 wins and 2-3 draws from last 8 games - we should be set for CL places. Sooner we can get top 4 set, the better though - I would love to see the Pellestri, Iqbal, Mainoo get some game time and allow EtH to game plan for the FA Cup final
It's only the Wolves and Bournemouth games where we have a clear week heading into them, and then the same for the FA Cup final vs City. Nice to have from a perspective of injury prevention (and hopefully Varane/Garnacho will have a chance of returning by then) but I don't think it's that significant.
Top 4 should be safe now barring a massive hiccup but I do think the momentum is with Newcastle for finishing 3rd. It doesn't matter in the grand scheme but I'd like to finish above them as I feel we've been the better team over the course of the season.
Still don't think top 4 is set. Next 3 games are teams in 5th, 6th, and 8th. So a tough little stretch. Gotta take care of business but if we come out of that with 2 wins out of 3 then it's set. If we lose to spurs and Brighton and only draw villa then who knows
That Spurs win against City was sure dangerous but its over now, I think we can safely say Spurs wont get in top 4.
Would take quite a big collapse from you or Newcastle now to drop out.
I fully back us to do it, but we still have a lot to do to lock in 4th. We've got a serious batch of fixtures coming up - Spurs will surely raise their game on Wednesday, Villa are in top form, West Ham fighting for survival and Brighton away goes without saying. The only team outside the current top 4 capable of breaking into it are Liveprool in my opinion. They have a lot of players coming back and seem to be looking more like their old selves.
Spurs are completely out of form so they are out. For Brighton (and Villa) would be too much to win 7 or 8 games until the end of season.
I know that it is unpopular opinion here but i am only watching Liverpool now as a club who can catch us. They are also struggling but their remaining fixtures are easiest as it goes. So we need 4 wins and one draw in 8 games to be 100% safe.
Next 3 games are crucial. Our 3 toughest games from 8 remaining games. We need at least 5 points from those games. But if we lose two of those then we will put us under pressure and give huge morale boost to Liverpool.
I know that it is unpopular opinion here but i am only watching Liverpool now as a club who can catch us. They are also struggling but their remaining fixtures are easiest as it goes. So we need 4 wins and one draw in 8 games to be 100% safe.
Next 3 games are crucial. Our 3 toughest games from 8 remaining games. We need at least 5 points from those games. But if we lose two of those then we will put us under pressure and give huge morale boost to Liverpool.
If Liverpool hits form - and it's looking a bit like they are - it would certainly be no sensation if they win all of their remaining games. They have the easiest run-in of any team, there are no games where you wouldn't reasonably expect them win, each game seen in isolation.
That would bring them to 71 points. The question however is if that is likely to be enough. I don't think so. I think United and Newcastle both have a pretty good chance of reaching 75, and a very good chance of reaching at least 72.
For instance, we could lose to both Spurs and Brighton and draw at home to Villa, and still get to 75. Our other remaining games aren't any worse than what Liverpool's facing. Slightly tougher for Newcastle since they have one less game to do it in, but they could drop 5 points against Arsenal and Brighton and still get there if they win their remaining five, all against bottom-half clubs.
I agree about Spurs. They'e on 71 if they win all of their remaining six games, but those include us at home and Liverpool and Villa away. That'd be some turnaround......
The way the probabilities stand right now, I don't think it's really a top 4 race until United or Newcastle slips up somewhere they can't afford to, and Liverpool still hasn't dropped points by the time that happens.
Instead, it's really a tight race for the two EL spots between Liverpool, Spurs and Brighton, with Villa the dark horse. But they have a pretty tough run-in, with Man Utd, Liverpool, Spurs and Brighton among their final six.
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Momentum is everything in football. IF (of course that i hope it will not happen) we get 3 points from next 3 games then Liverpool can be on 6 points behind us with better GD. And then pressure is on.
Sure. But we'd still need to drop 6 points in our last five games against West Ham (away, to who we haven't lost since, what, 2019?), wolves home, Bournemouth away, Fulham home and Chelsea home - provided they don't drop any points at all. Which is of course possible, but the probabilities don't exactly stack up in Liverpool's favor. In my opinion they are too low at this point for this to really be considered much of a race.
And as for momentum, that is a fickle thing. Current trends could prolong to the end of the season, or they could turn. Any anyway, our PL form (last five) is actually better than Liverpool's. In fact, it's trumped only by City, Villa and Newcastle.
Liverpool haven't won more than 4 games in a row all season.
They will probably drop points away at West ham on Wednesday.
The top four was confirmed yesterday. None of the teams outside it are consistent enough to get 70+ points.
Win all our home games and top 4 is mathematically done. Liverpool aren't winning all of their remaining games and we're not losing all of our away ones.
People love to worry
People love to worry
Confirmed, no. But as said, the probabilities stack up pretty heavily against Liverpool, yes. No real race at this point.
A bit frustrating that our tough games against Spurs, Villa and Brighton all fall now. Would have been nice to have a week build up to them, instead we’ve gotta keep nursing players through this Sunday/Thursday schedule.
I’m not worried about top four at all though, I reckon it’s locked up now that Newcastle beat Spurs
I’m not worried about top four at all though, I reckon it’s locked up now that Newcastle beat Spurs
It’ll be done when Newcastle takes points off Brighton imo. I just can’t see where a challenge comes from unless Brighton beats the top three in the league and goes on a run they haven’t really been on this season. Even now they aren’t winning that many games
Brighton have no chance in my opinion - they have the whole current top 4 left, plus Villa away and they couldn't afford to lose more than two of those, even if they win all the rest. It's Liverpool, if anyone. And then only if they win all of their remaining games AND United or Newcastle slip up a good deal more than expected.
It won't feel like it while we're still in the heat of the battle, but realistically right now this is as close to a 'comfortable top 4 finish' as anyone would get without being firmly in a title challenge
Lucky that Spurs, Liverpool, and especially Chelsea have been absolute trash this season, else top-four would have been difficult.
What is lucky about getting more points than other teams? Very odd way to look at it.
How exactly? Care to explain ? The average 4th spot points in the last 5 years- 71, 67,67,66 and 75 .
We have 1.9 ppg now after 30 games albeit the injuries. The same points would give us 74 points over 38 games which would be enough for top 4. So it's not because other teams are shit but rather we are doing quite okay .
In other words, your post is shit .
As has been mentioned multiple times before, 75 points (our current trend line) has been good enough to be safely in the top 4 for the last 5 years. In fact, even 71 points would be enough for us to finish in the top 4 in the last 5 seasons.
The only time 75 was not enough to finish in the top 4 in the last 10 years was in 2016/17 when Liverpool finished 4th with 76 points and Arsenal finished 5th with 75 points.
So you can call us lucky, or you can acknowledge the truth and say that we have performed well enough so far to comfortably & deservedly finish in the top 4.
Avoid defeat at Spurs and I'd say top 4 is pretty much a guarantee.
It's been this way for months, and now even more so, if we can't get top 4 from this position, we don't deserve to and it would take the sort of dip in form that would be unforgivable really, and quite unlikely.
Even if we end up limping over the line, we simply will finish top 4 from here. Not worried. We'll probably have a few more wobbles before it's all over, but that's the top 4 race.
Even if we end up limping over the line, we simply will finish top 4 from here. Not worried. We'll probably have a few more wobbles before it's all over, but that's the top 4 race.
Hoping Chelsea don't make an appointment before our game, could be a crucial game that although unlikely