Race for top 4 | Finito.

RedRocket9908

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Spurs result today gives us some breathing space now, we are still 3rd 1 ahead of them with 2 in hand and if we win those I doubt Spurs will be able to catch us.

Newcastle away isnt going to be easy without Casemiro and defeat would put them above us, if Craig Pawson hadnt of made the decision to rule out Ronaldo's perfectly good goal in the first game between us we wouldnt be under as much pressure going in to this one.
 
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caid

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I feel like people hugely overestimate whats required to finish top 4 based on the time under Ferguson and whats required to finish first. They're used beating everyone at home and dropped points against a weaker side away is fatal to the campaign.
Top 4 doesn't require that much. Get a couple of wins against direct competitors and recover from bad results fast. If your within a mile of troubling the likes of Bayern or Real then you'll qualify fairly comfortably. If your not who cares really?
I expect us to qualify. Probably not that comfortably but we bounce back fast. And i dont see anyone catching us unless we go on a long run of bad results. Also Tottenham and Newcastle are a bit crap frankly and Liverpool are sturggling
 

Sandikan

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Spurs result today gives us some breathing space now, we are still 3rd 1 ahead of them with 2 in hand and if we win those I doubt Spurs will be able to catch us.

Newcastle away is going to be easy without Casemiro and defeat would put them above us, if Craig Pawson hadnt of made the decision to rule out Ronaldo's perfectly good goal in the first game between us we wouldnt be under as much pressure going in to this one.
Assume you missed a key "not" in that second paragraph first line!
 

Irwin99

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I haven't really shared the same concerns as many others about top 4. There might be a possibility we slip to fourth if we struggle a bit with fatigue from all these extra games and one of the other teams goes on a really good run but the chances of BOTH Spurs and Newcastle doing so are slim. Spurs in particular are just, well, Spurs I suppose, enough said!

Liverpool, Brighton and Brentford are a bit behind but they're all inconsistent too.
 

BorisManUtd

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Great to see Spurs dropped points at Southampton. We'll enter April still 3rd in the table which is nice, then there's 12 games and 2 more months to hopefully stay there.
 

Lee565

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A draw against Newcastle would not be a bad result at all with spurs latest slip up, it would keep both Newcastle and spurs at arms reach if we can pick up 4 points in next two games
 

lex talionis

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We'd have to feck this up pretty bad now to drop out of the top four. After the dumpster fire Ole and Woody left him and all the shit Erik has had to deal with this season, a third place finish is an extraordinary achievement for the bald man.
 

C'est Moi Cantona

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I mean if it was a in form Liverpool and Chelsea in the position Spurs and Newcastle were in then the worriers might have a point, but it's not, it's Spurs and Newcastle.
 

Sandikan

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It's more a case of who Liverpool are going to beat to 4th rather than us missing out.
Famous last words!
 

Djemba-Djemba

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I feel like people hugely overestimate whats required to finish top 4 based on the time under Ferguson and whats required to finish first. They're used beating everyone at home and dropped points against a weaker side away is fatal to the campaign.
Top 4 doesn't require that much. Get a couple of wins against direct competitors and recover from bad results fast. If your within a mile of troubling the likes of Bayern or Real then you'll qualify fairly comfortably. If your not who cares really?
I expect us to qualify. Probably not that comfortably but we bounce back fast. And i dont see anyone catching us unless we go on a long run of bad results. Also Tottenham and Newcastle are a bit crap frankly and Liverpool are sturggling
I think this is a very good post and a theory I agree with.
 

Rocksy

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… don’t think you need to beat Newcastle and Tottenham. Two draws should be enough, or just winning at Newcastle. Can’t see Tottenham putting a run together…
 

Rightnr

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I don't think we're winning at Newcastle without Casemiro. We need not to lose in that 3-game week and win one of our home games against Brentford or Dyche's Everton.
 

The Dane

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I still think we will get top 4. What I can’t really decide is which team I want to follow us. I would normally say Spurs but if we have a chance of getting Kane if they don’t then no. Newcastle with their wealthy owners is also not very attractive and Liverpool is of course an absolute no go. Brighton or Brentford is not realistic in my view.
All things considered I’ll go with Spurs.
 

Dominos

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I'm torn on how much trouble we could be in. We obviously need to beat out the 5th best team to get top 4.

The team with the 5th best PPG is Spurs which would put them on 67 points at the end of the season.

If we allow for an upturn in form of whichever team finishes 5th, I still think 72 points should be enough for us.

So from our last 12 games we need

7 wins, 1 draw, 4 losses
or
6 wins, 4 draws, 2 losses.

We can drop points in every other game and still likely make top 4, which is a very good position on paper when you put it like that. The issue we have is we're currently on a run of 3 wins in 8 so we're clearly capable of going on a bad run that would put our top 4 place in jeopardy. We're dropping a lot of points to even lower half teams.
 

caid

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I'm torn on how much trouble we could be in. We obviously need to beat out the 5th best team to get top 4.

The team with the 5th best PPG is Spurs which would put them on 67 points at the end of the season.

If we allow for an upturn in form of whichever team finishes 5th, I still think 72 points should be enough for us.

So from our last 12 games we need

7 wins, 1 draw, 4 losses
or
6 wins, 4 draws, 2 losses.

We can drop points in every other game and still likely make top 4, which is a very good position on paper when you put it like that. The issue we have is we're currently on a run of 3 wins in 8 so we're clearly capable of going on a bad run that would put our top 4 place in jeopardy. We're dropping a lot of points to even lower half teams.
Our remaining home games dont look too bad. Fulham again, Brentford and Chelsea the most complicated ones. Win the 6 of them then we need 1 win, 1 draw from games including Nottingham Forest, Bournemouth and West Ham. A lot of games against teams that could have nothing to play for depending on timing.
3 wins in 8 sounds bad to be fair. But theres a lot of cup wins sandwiched in amongst them. Probably not a coincidence that run starts with Eriksen being injured and Casemiro being suspended the next week.
It wont be comfortable or by a huge margin but we should make it.
 

DRJosh

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Whilst Top 4 is crucial I really hope we win the Europa - with a generous slice of luck who knows.

Casemiro needs to be available asap after his suspension. Not sure if Eriksen will be back in full form when he restarts.
 

wangyu

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Focus should be on the Europa league. It gives us glory, something to celebrate and a CL ticket just like 4th place does. It is also easier to achieve. Only 5 games left of which we only need to win 3. Our 2 toughest opponents are played home and away, over 2 ties I fancy us to beat anyone. The final whoever it is should be easier than both Sevilla and Juventus.

After that we possibly have a bonus final vs City without much stress in the FA cup
 

BorisManUtd

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We're obviously in best position with 50 points but there's much more to go. 70 points should be enough for top 4 finish? Then we'd need to win 20 out of remaining 36 points available. Think that's realistic but playing so many games and another 2 competitions is something that could hurt us. Hopefully Eriksen and Martial will be back soon.
 

DickDastardly

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You lot.

Liverpool loses their next 4 games.
Goes out against Real, loses against City, Arse and Chelsea.
Miss out on top 4.

City loses against Burnley in the FA cup.
Arsenal loses against Sporting in EL.

Treble of cups and a third place guaranteed.
Two down, two to go.

Burley was a good guess eh? :houllier:
 

Appletonred

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Inexplicable that Liverpool have fell off a cliff since the 7-0 which actually just highlights more and more how it was very much a freak result.

Regardless of the Newcastle result on Sunday, I fully expect both Utds to be in the top 4 come the end of the season.
 

BorisManUtd

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Great result for us, Spurs and Newcastle. Important game vs Newcastle tomorrow as good result would make our position stronger and we could then look more at other 2 competitions.
 

thegregster

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It's over if Spurs get any sort of new manager bounce. We haven't a hope of getting anything away to them. Most of our team will just give up and blame the manager like they always do.
 

DeGea

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We won’t finish top 4 if things don’t improve soon. Don’t think we have won away vs any of the top 9 clubs.
 

1988

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5 goal difference. Makes it almost impossible to secure a top 4.

4*
 

bosnian_red

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Wake up call now.

Spurs if they win tomorrow drop us to 5th, but we have 2 games in hand. Thankfully don't have many more away games against the top half where we seemingly can't do anything
 

Siorac

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We'll have to win the Europa League now. There's no way we'll be in the CL otherwise - and this team looks completely shot.
 

BluesJr

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A couple of wins and it’s back under control, but this team needs a massive uptick in performance.