Russian invasion of Ukraine | Fewer tweets, more discussion

Rajma

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You think Russia will admit defeat within about 18 months, especially if they know the US will scale back/stop their support right after?
They’ll be pushed back and won’t have any offensive capacity left for years to come, in that sense their wishes won’t matter by that date.
 

RedDevilQuebecois

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The ANC (ruling party in South Africa) is now under very serious scrutiny after thoe following revelations. The opposition is roasting President Ramaphosa because of that.

 

Morty_

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Russia won't ever admit defeat, even if pushed back to its borders, but at that point, Ukraine would have done what they have set out to do.
 

Ragnar123

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It would be brilliant if they could achieve that. Russian defenses should be the weakest around Bakhmut, because you don't build fortifications usually, when you keep attacking all the time.
 
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Simbo

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Trump praised Putin's annexation of Crimea and repeatedly spouted Kremlin propaganda. If someone speaks Russian, they want to be ruled by Russia, etc.

Trump's priorities in the first few months of his presidency was make Russia great again, he couldn't care less about Murica. Bashing NATO and the EU, supporting Brexit, attacking sanctions. He's openly said he would take the US out of NATO in a 2nd term.

It was apparently a requirement of Trump's staffers to have strong Russian ties, or at the least be Russian friendly. His campaign manager was as obvious an actual Russian asset as it gets, without it being stamped on his forehead. Remember the guy who spent 10 years prior to working for Trump, advising the guy who very nearly succeeded in turning Ukraine into a Russian puppet state? But sure, Trump would have helped Ukraine :lol: Then you've got Flynn, Stone, Bannon, Slater, Wilbur Ross, Carter Page, Rick Gates, Papadopoulos, Tillerson, etc. All knee deep in Russian money.

All the WikiLeaks nonsense. That completely independent whistleblowing organisation, as long as it furthers Russian interests.

The Helsinki summit, where after the secret meetings with Putin, he stood next to him like a lapdog agreeing to extradite US officials to Russia.

Everything the Mueller report uncovered, all the obstructions.

Withholding weapons to Ukraine, attempting to drag Zelensky into a political scandal.

I'm sure there's more.

Its not just like minds, Dictators sticking together or cashing in favours for all the electoral help Trump gets. There is too much. Trump is a Putin bot.

Not a cat in hells chance he would have helped Ukraine. He can't make it too obvious of course (apparently everything he's already done isn't enough for some people), but at the least he'd have pressured Ukraine into whatever terms Putin wanted and made sure the rest of the world accepted it and moved on. Under the guise of peace and whatever bullshit he was peddling last night.

Remember Trumps covid response? Doing everything possible to let it run rampant and do maximum damage to America behind the defence of stupidly and batshit conspiracy theories? I'd imagine something like that.
 

VorZakone

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I think these Lancet drones were causing serious trouble for the Ukrainians.

 

stefan92

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It would be brilliant if they could achieve that. Russian defenses should be the weakest around Bakhmut, because you don't build fortifications usually, when you keep attacking all the time.
Lots of panic in Russian telegram channels right now...
Of course at the moment we now nothing for sure, but it looks like at least a limited offensive has begun now.
 

The Firestarter

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Choosing Bakhmut for the first counteroffensive seems more of a propaganda value than strategic. "You tried for so long and failed, now watch what we do" etc.
 

stefan92

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Expecting Russian positions in Bakhmut to collapse at some point in the near future
The first apparently already did. Especially the 72nd brigade lost it's position on the southern flank, reports are that Wagner had to pull fighters from attacking the city center to stabilize that front (and that means, they had to stop their ongoing attacks in the city itself). Reports also indicate that the 72nd only had machine guns as the heaviest weaponry and was just obliterated by Ukrainian tanks. So this report is coupled with massive criticism of the Russian leadership, why there were no anti-tank weapons on that frontline. Things are heating up there..
 

dove

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It would be brilliant if they could achieve that. Russian defenses should be the weakest around Bakhmut, because you don't build fortifications usually, when you keep attacking all the time.
Yea, something looks to be brewing in the eastern front.

 

Simbo

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Lots of panic in Russian telegram channels right now...
Of course at the moment we now nothing for sure, but it looks like at least a limited offensive has begun now.
Really does feel like the situation in Ukraine is about to significantly change.

Its as if just the threat of a counter-offensive, hyped up for so long now, is devastating Russian forces before it even begins.
 

stefan92

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Choosing Bakhmut for the first counteroffensive seems more of a propaganda value than strategic. "You tried for so long and failed, now watch what we do" etc.
The situation in Bakhmut is an excellent to create an even deeper rift between the different factions in Russia (especially between Wagner and the regular army). The strategic value is completely destroying their relation because they will blame each other and therefore fueling internal struggles in Russia.
 

Ragnar123

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The situation in Bakhmut is an excellent to create an even deeper rift between the different factions in Russia (especially between Wagner and the regular army). The strategic value is completely destroying their relation because they will blame each other and therefore fueling internal struggles in Russia.
Exactly. Prigozhin exhausted nearly his whole terror group to take Soledar, most of Bakhmut and surroundings. If they lose all of that in a matter of days, the shit will hit the fan.
It would be extremely cunning of Zelenskyy to give that interview today to bbc stating they still need more time and weapons for their counteroffensive, while it started at the same time.
 
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VorZakone

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The situation in Bakhmut is an excellent to create an even deeper rift between the different factions in Russia (especially between Wagner and the regular army). The strategic value is completely destroying their relation because they will blame each other and therefore fueling internal struggles in Russia.
I was thinking the same. Strategic town or not, it does seem like it has caused serious tension between Wagner and the Russian MoD. No doubt Western intelligence are monitoring that communication.
 

VorZakone

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Telegraph reporter. Perhaps a local offensive in Bakhmut then, but not yet "the big one"?

 

Spark

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I was thinking the same. Strategic town or not, it does seem like it has caused serious tension between Wagner and the Russian MoD. No doubt Western intelligence are monitoring that communication.
It’s got proper Sudan warlord vibes.
 

Ragnar123

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Seems like Ukraine is poking the hornet's nest in a few places and Russians are already in panic.
 

VorZakone

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How do you motivate a soldier who is protecting his wife, his kids, his land? What else can motivate him? There's no need to motivate us because it is the Russians who motivated us. Putin motivates us better than anyone else.

 

Maagge

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Choosing Bakhmut for the first counteroffensive seems more of a propaganda value than strategic. "You tried for so long and failed, now watch what we do" etc.
I think it makes a lot of sense. They can't have been fortifying too much with all the people they've just sent over the top to press on. Plus the whole Wagner and MoD infighting if it turns into a rout.
 

The United

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Choosing Bakhmut for the first counteroffensive seems more of a propaganda value than strategic. "You tried for so long and failed, now watch what we do" etc.
It has strategic as well as symbolic value. There is a reason why the UA has been fighting for months, with many men dying. By effectively counterattacking them there, the majority of the Wager group in UA might be annihilated and there would be a rift between them, as many have mentioned. Putin would be embarrassed as well.

And UA's morale would skyrocket.
 

The Firestarter

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It has strategic as well as symbolic value. There is a reason why the UA has been fighting for months, with many men dying. By effectively counterattacking them there, the majority of the Wager group in UA might be annihilated and there would be a rift between them, as many have mentioned. Putin would be embarrassed as well.

And UA's morale would skyrocket.
Majority of Wagner group is in Africa though
 

VorZakone

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Hard to imagine that now since tons of resources including manpower were used at that city for ages.
Many convicts though. I think the veteran Wagner guys are mostly abroad in Africa or Syria. Africa is also more profitable for Wagner.
 

The Firestarter

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Hard to imagine that now since tons of resources including manpower were used at that city for ages.
He mostly collected fodder from the prisons. Probably some commanders are from the pros. But not the grunts. Would be great if they get wiped out completely though
 

The United

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Many convicts though. I think the veteran Wagner guys are mostly abroad in Africa or Syria. Africa is also more profitable for Wagner.
According to BBC in Jan, 2023: "Before Russia's invasion of Ukraine, it is thought the Wagner Group had only about 5,000 fighters. Wagner almost certainly now commands 50,000 fighters in Ukraine ."

Wagner groups, despite having tons of convicts, gave the UA so much trouble with the way they (have to) fought. It is doubtful that their regular troops would do the same. The group has probably lost tons of resources, and it will definitely weaken their combat capacity anywhere for now. They might not even come back to UA in the future if UA does it successfully, which can only be a good thing.
 

RedDevilQuebecois

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It would be brilliant if they could achieve that. Russian defenses should be the weakest around Bakhmut, because you don't build fortifications usually, when you keep attacking all the time.
Operation Uranus 2.0. If it carries on, we will be able to say Russia has been Stalingrad-ed.

All that money and can't even get a decent haircut.
:lol: It's ugly as hell, all right.
 

the hea

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Choosing Bakhmut for the first counteroffensive seems more of a propaganda value than strategic. "You tried for so long and failed, now watch what we do" etc.
I think what we are seeing now is more of a shaping operation to force a response from the Russians and not the large counter offensive everyone has been waiting for.
It will force the Rusian MOD to make a hard choice, either they send reserves to Bakhmut which in turn will weaken other sectors of the front or they risk the political humiliation that comes with loosing the city.
 

Raoul

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Choosing Bakhmut for the first counteroffensive seems more of a propaganda value than strategic. "You tried for so long and failed, now watch what we do" etc.
If Wagner, who are considered Russia's best trained troops on the ground, are routed in Bakhmut, it could have a ripple effect on the morale of all Russian troops in Ukraine.