Russian invasion of Ukraine | Fewer tweets, more discussion

[buchansleftleg]

It's a shame that the UN couldn't show a bit of muscle over this dam crisis and enforce a brief "no fly zone" to evacuate people. The reluctance of the west to provide more aid is appalling, but I can understand that actually providing humanitarian relief is very problematic when in an active war site. I suspect the Russians would love a brief "ceasefire" to reposition in response to the counter -offensive, and have shown they don't respect such conventions anyway.

Is getting action from the UN being restricted by Russia's role on the security council at the moment - or could UNHCR act independently?

 

[Carolina Red]

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[JuriM]

It's a shame that the UN couldn't show a bit of muscle over this dam crisis and enforce a brief "no fly zone" to evacuate people. The reluctance of the west to provide more aid is appalling, but I can understand that actually providing humanitarian relief is very problematic when in an active war site. I suspect the Russians would love a brief "ceasefire" to reposition in response to the counter -offensive, and have shown they don't respect such conventions anyway.

Is getting action from the UN being restricted by Russia's role on the security council at the moment - or could UNHCR act independently?

A bit of everything, UN is just useless in current world.

Russian forces have been shelling the area where Ukraine is trying to evacuate people in Kherson region all morning.

 

[Raoul]

When Harry met Sally....

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[The Firestarter]

When Harry met Sally....

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the Russians have always honored their own commitments
the Russians have always honored their own commitments
the Russians have always honored their own commitments

 

[nimic]

the Russians have always honored their own commitments
the Russians have always honored their own commitments
the Russians have always honored their own commitments

Name literally one time when they haven't. Okay, name two. Name three then, if you're so smart. I bet you can't even name four. There's no way you can name five. Go ahead, name six times the Russians haven't honoured their commitments.

 

[calodo2003]

When Harry met Sally....

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[harms]

When Harry met Sally....

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You can probably find Putin's speech that would match this word for word.

 

[Raoul]

You can probably find Putin's speech that would match this word for word.

Was thinking the same. This guy seems to be this cycle's Tara Reade.

 

[maniak]

Name literally one time when they haven't. Okay, name two. Name three then, if you're so smart. I bet you can't even name four. There's no way you can name five. Go ahead, name six times the Russians haven't honoured their commitments.

And after you name 20, you get "oh yeah, but what about the west?"

 

[The Firestarter]

Name literally one time when they haven't. Okay, name two. Name three then, if you're so smart. I bet you can't even name four. There's no way you can name five. Go ahead, name six times the Russians haven't honoured their commitments.
[...]

fxed

 

[JuriM]

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[Carolina Red]

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[the hea]

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Here is the video. Looks like at least one Ukrainian tank was hit and destroyed. Looking at the amount of vehicles I believe these are still only small reconnaissance attacks and I believe we have not seen any major breakthrough attempt from the Ukrainians yet.

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[Carolina Red]

Here is the video. Looks like at least one Ukrainian tank was hit and destroyed. Looking at the amount of vehicles I believe these are still only small reconnaissance attacks and I believe we have not seen any major breakthrough attempt from the Ukrainians yet.

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While the attacks aren't that large in scale yet, I wouldn't expect to see recon in force using the NATO tanks. Obviously, that's just me, it could be exactly what they're doing.

 

[Simbo]

While the attacks aren't that large in scale yet, I wouldn't expect to see recon in force using the NATO tanks. Obviously, that's just me, it could be exactly what they're doing.

I dunno, recon will take whatever tools are available for the job they are on. Leo 2's are now ready to go in the Ukraine arsenal, so are being put to use.

 

[Carolina Red]

I dunno, recon will take whatever tools are available for the job they are on. Leo 2's are now ready to go in the Ukraine arsenal, so are being put to use.

I’m just thinking of conservation of force. “Why use the Leopards unless you have to?”

On a different tangent though, they could use them as a distraction. Russia thinks the NATO tanks appearing means that’s the spear point kinda thing

 

[Simbo]

I’m just thinking of conservation of force. “Why use the Leopards unless you have to?”

On a different tangent though, they could use them as a distraction. Russia thinks the NATO tanks appearing means that’s the spear point kinda thing

Yeh we really don't know what's going on here. As that's the whole point, to ensure the Russian's don't have a clue of what's coming.

 

[the hea]

While the attacks aren't that large in scale yet, I wouldn't expect to see recon in force using the NATO tanks. Obviously, that's just me, it could be exactly what they're doing.

I think that is exactly what they are doing.
Leo 2s are faster, more maneuvarable and have much better armor compared to T-72s so they are much better suited for recce missions compared to the older Ukrainian tanks. We have also seen AMX-10s being deployed in the last days and these are vehicles designed for armored reconnaissance missions. My guess is that we are now in the final stages of the Ukrainian preparations for a major breakthrough attempt on the Russian fortifications.

It's when we start seeing these beasts rolling up on the Russian fortifications that we know that a major breakthrough attempt is under way.

 

[Rajma]

Guys, you need to remember that this is Ukraine and there’s still going to be a layer of soviet commanders that are no better than what orcs have. From what I understand it was poor leadership that has led to these stupid tactics being deployed during the first phase of the offensive in some directions, I hear a lot from Ukrainians close to the matter, unfortunately.

 

[Carolina Red]

Yeh we really don't know what's going on here. As that's the whole point, to ensure the Russian's don't have a clue of what's coming.

That’s a fair point

It's when we start seeing these beasts rolling up on the Russian fortifications that we know that a major breakthrough attempt is under way.

Yeah there won’t be any mistaking it then

 

[tomaldinho1]

I’m just thinking of conservation of force. “Why use the Leopards unless you have to?”

On a different tangent though, they could use them as a distraction. Russia thinks the NATO tanks appearing means that’s the spear point kinda thing

Exactly this. Russia will be tracking as much as it can re vehicle movement from satellites, the dumbest thing possible would be for Ukraine to use NATO tanks where they actually want to break through.

It seems like they're probing everywhere along the Russian line from the verified news and the hope it suddenly one area will get targeted with a much larger force but you never know, this might genuinely be all they can muster right now.

 

[The United]

Exactly this. Russia will be tracking as much as it can re vehicle movement from satellites, the dumbest thing possible would be for Ukraine to use NATO tanks where they actually want to break through.

It seems like they're probing everywhere along the Russian line from the verified news and the hope it suddenly one area will get targeted with a much larger force but you never know, this might genuinely be all they can muster right now.

At this stage, it does not matter where they put the tanks are. RA will know everything within a few hours. What I don't get is why UA feels the need to probe the line at this point. Shouldn't they have spied on the RA defense and amassed a wealth of knowledge about them by now? We've had some Twitter users looking at the RA defense positions for months, and they appear to be quite substantial, given that the RA had months to prepare for this. They should just concentrate their forces on certain areas to get some break through. Probing the lines sounds like what Wagner did with Bakhmut for months, and I don't think it is the situation that the UA want to find themselves to be in.

Obviously, we are just commenting on whatever they wrote on the news on the South. The main offensive could be somewhere else, probably in the Northeast.

 

[The United]

Guys, you need to remember that this is Ukraine and there’s still going to be a layer of soviet commanders that are no better than what orcs have. From what I understand it was poor leadership that has led to these stupid tactics being deployed during the first phase of the offensive in some directions, I hear a lot from Ukrainians close to the matter, unfortunately.

It has been the case with some of them this whole war. People get giddy about NATO's basic training and equipment, but it is really hard to transform an army quickly during the war, especially with older commanders. I hope they are not losing too many lives and equipment while trying to "prob the line".

 

[VorZakone]

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[VorZakone]

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[tomaldinho1]

At this stage, it does not matter where they put the tanks are. RA will know everything within a few hours. What I don't get is why UA feels the need to probe the line at this point. Shouldn't they have spied on the RA defense and amassed a wealth of knowledge about them by now? We've had some Twitter users looking at the RA defense positions for months, and they appear to be quite substantial, given that the RA had months to prepare for this. They should just concentrate their forces on certain areas to get some break through. Probing the lines sounds like what Wagner did with Bakhmut for months, and I don't think it is the situation that the UA find themselves to be in.

Obviously, we are just commenting on whatever they wrote on the news on the South. The main offensive could be somewhere else, probably in the Northeast.

None of us are military experts but my guess would be whilst they can see the Russian defences and have good info on where things are with a few kms - they probably don’t know where most of the artillery is or any concealed positions. Kind of need them to open fire and then immediately try and locate where it’s coming from.

 

[klsv]

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Christ, some of the doom mongering in the comment sections of those tweets are on par with our match day threads after Bruno misplaces a pass near the center circle. It's as if those few tanks were the counter offensive Ukraine has been preparing for months.

 

[The United]

None of us are military experts but my guess would be whilst they can see the Russian defences and have good info on where things are with a few kms - they probably don’t know where most of the artillery is or any concealed positions. Kind of need them to open fire and then immediately try and locate where it’s coming from.

I would think It would work for about an hour because the RA would realize that pretty quickly, take the necessary action, and silence the whole line. The speed gave UA their biggest achievement last summer with the counterattack pretty quickly, and it would be like that this time too, I think. I am just hoping the UA is not doing what the media thinks they are doing.

 

[tomaldinho1]

I would think It would work for about an hour because the RA would realize that pretty quickly, take the necessary action, and silence the whole line. The speed gave UA their biggest achievement last summer with the counterattack pretty quickly, and it would be like that this time too, I think. I am just hoping the UA is not doing what the media thinks they are doing.

I think with some of the mobile artillery now you have a few mins in some cases before it relocates so it’s a very fast operation to spot them and hit them.

 

[Carolina Red]

Great analysis thread from the ISW

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[4bars]

Could it be that Russia knew that it was about to start because as US, they have as well spies and other methods to know what is brewing in Ukraine and that is why they blew the Dam just 2 days to start the offensive to hamper it to concentrate all the defensive forces in a sorter front and at the same time thinning the Ukrainian resources because of the rescue efforts due to the flooding?

 

[Carolina Red]

Could it be that Russia knew that it was about to start because as US, they have as well spies and other methods to know what is brewing in Ukraine and that is why they blew the Dam just 2 days to start the offensive to hamper it to concentrate all the defensive forces in a sorter front and at the same time thinning the Ukrainian resources because of the rescue efforts due to the flooding?

If so, they didn’t really think that one through…

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[4bars]

If so, they didn’t really think that one through…

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Well, sure they had lines of defenses while defending before the dam. those were supposed to be lost. all that area is unattakable and undefensible meaning that Russia doesn't need to commit resources and packing them elsewhere narrowing the area that needs to be defended and disrupting the counteroffensive

Obviously I base this in 0 knowledge but the 2 events happened so at the same time that Russians had to know something as a big scale attack can't happen overnight and it was planned

Saying that, it is really happening?

 

[calodo2003]

I’m just a few minutes in, but this seems very good…

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[Real Name]

If UAF is concetrating their strenght at Zaporižje that means they're trying to isolate Crimea and split Russian forces at Azov sea?

 

[JuriM]

If UAF is concetrating their strenght at Zaporižje that means they're trying to isolate Crimea and split Russian forces at Azov sea?

Nah, it all seems like another fake offensive to just probe the defence, the real push hasn't even started yet say many our military experts. One is to find as much weak spots as possible before you open your cards.

 

[Spark]

I’m just a few minutes in, but this seems very good…

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Super interesting, nice one. Wagner seem like a modern day equivalent of the East India Company.

 

[buchansleftleg]

None of us are military experts but my guess would be whilst they can see the Russian defences and have good info on where things are with a few kms - they probably don’t know where most of the artillery is or any concealed positions. Kind of need them to open fire and then immediately try and locate where it’s coming from.

They will know where all the main defence forces are from shared satellite imagery - what these attacks could be is an attempt to get the Russians to commit some of their reserve forces to supplement an area. These forces will be very vulnerable while on the move. If you can drain away the reserve forces then the front line may not be as resolute in defence, and may be more likely to scatter if they aren't worried about guys at their back forcing them back to the front.

 

[Maagge]

They will know where all the main defence forces are from shared satellite imagery - what these attacks could be is an attempt to get the Russians to commit some of their reserve forces to supplement an area. These forces will be very vulnerable while on the move. If you can drain away the reserve forces then the front line may not be as resolute in defence, and may be more likely to scatter if they aren't worried about guys at their back forcing them back to the front.

I think more crucially it's that reserves deployed to one place can't be deployed somewhere else. Meaning the Ukrainians are trying to get the Russians commit to a few places. Of course it might be worthwhile to hit them on the move it possible.