Russian invasion of Ukraine | Fewer tweets, more discussion

led_scholes

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I was hoping for people to kick out Putin. I m not sure that a coup d etat by mercenaries is the best scenario.
 

RoyH1

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Ukranian soldiers must opening a beverage and taking a breather watching this unfold
 

Abizzz

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This will be an interesting weekend. Hopefully Ukrainians will be able to take advantage of the confusion.
 

B20

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only way out for prigozhin now is to fight his way to the top.
 

VorZakone

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He hasn’t said anything against Putin so far has he? Interesting to see how he responds.
Yeah, initally it doesn't seem to be a coup against Putin. Prigozhin wants MoD leadership gone. However, all of these shenanigans affect Putin's hold on power anyway.
 

frostbite

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This whole opera sounds like a copy of the Erdogan fake coup. Putin will exterminate all those that he wanted dead, and that's it.
 

berbatrick

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I wonder does “stab in the back” have those connotations in Russia given Prighozin’s supposed Jewish heritage? Remember a while back Girkin insinuating something along those lines.
repeated

 

Camy89

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Many online mentioning it looks like he’s in front of a green screen. I’m not massively convinced but interestingly the presidential plane left Moscow at 8:03am and landed at 11:38am (local times) in Ufa.

He’s known to have a hideout in the Urals. I guess he’s escaping over there for now.
 

Rajma

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Yeah, initally it doesn't seem to be a coup against Putin. Prigozhin wants MoD leadership gone. However, all of these shenanigans affect Putin's hold on power anyway.
When you start the coup like that even if you intended for it to be small, if you prevail you will become too big for the role you intended initially. He will replace Putin.
 

MadMike

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Who knew that allowing private military companies to form, freely recruit thousands of disenfranchised people from penal colonies and then use state resources to arm them with heavy weaponry like IFVs, MBTs and artillery would see them turn against the state when the state becomes weak?

I have to say. Putin for a long time enjoyed a reputation akin to an evil genius or puppet master here in the West. But in the last few years the facade has completely fallen. He should have stayed happy with his kleptocracy by milking the Russian state and people to the end of his days. But he had an ambition to build a great legacy and enter a pantheon of Russian leaders by expanding the borders of his huge state. And now he reminds me more of a Russian version of the British classic, pub-dwelling, bumbling, nationalist idiot full of “Great Empire” revanchism and bravado but very little intellect to back anything up.
 
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Spark

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Night of the long knives, Prigozhin = Röhm.

If anything, Prigozhin might have looked at that episode and decided to act before be was summarily defenestrated. Go out all guns blazing.

Do wonder what effect, if any, this is having on the front lines. Hopefully Ukraine can take some sort of advantage, lob a couple storm shadows at some high value stuff.

Also is that weird insurrection still happening in Belgorod?
 

We need an rvn

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Possible civil war in Russia?
Nah, this will be over quickly and all forgiven (for now)

I might be wrong as I don’t know that much about the Wagner group, but pretty sure they’re backed up by the Russian army supplying them (eg ammunition, weapons, tanks, fuel etc - not to mention I don’t think they have any aerial weapons of any kind). Without any of that being supplied to them by Russia how are they going to march on Moscow?
 

FireballXL5

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Night of the long knives, Prigozhin = Röhm.

If anything, Prigozhin might have looked at that episode and decided to act before be was summarily defenestrated. Go out all guns blazing.

Do wonder what effect, if any, this is having on the front lines. Hopefully Ukraine can take some sort of advantage, lob a couple storm shadows at some high value stuff.

Also is that weird insurrection still happening in Belgorod?
Exactly. Vlad should have brushed up on his history.
 

VorZakone

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Can Putin not order Telegram to give control of Wagner accounts to the state? Telegram is a Russian company, no?
 

Rajma

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Nah, this will be over quickly and all forgiven (for now)

I might be wrong as I don’t know that much about the Wagner group, but pretty sure they’re backed up by the Russian army supplying them (eg ammunition, weapons, tanks, fuel etc - not to mention I don’t think they have any aerial weapons of any kind). Without any of that being supplied to them by Russia how are they going to march on Moscow?
They’re now controlling Russian army’s HQ in Rostov and all the military facilities there and in Voronezh, which was given up without a fight.
 

do.ob

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Night of the long knives, Prigozhin = Röhm.

If anything, Prigozhin might have looked at that episode and decided to act before be was summarily defenestrated. Go out all guns blazing.

Do wonder what effect, if any, this is having on the front lines. Hopefully Ukraine can take some sort of advantage, lob a couple storm shadows at some high value stuff.

Also is that weird insurrection still happening in Belgorod?
I can't imagine, who this isn't quite positive for Ukraine. Even from the simplest point of view there's thousands of Wagner soldiers, who suddenly disappeared from the front and thus are bound to have left some gaps behind them. Not to mention that the forces that are supposed to meet them in Russia have to come from somewhere as well. And then there's the soft aspects of Putin looking weak and a lot of people's loyalty being put to the test or questioned.
 

stefan92

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Nah, this will be over quickly and all forgiven (for now)

I might be wrong as I don’t know that much about the Wagner group, but pretty sure they’re backed up by the Russian army supplying them (eg ammunition, weapons, tanks, fuel etc - not to mention I don’t think they have any aerial weapons of any kind). Without any of that being supplied to them by Russia how are they going to march on Moscow?
If Russian soldiers wanted to stop them, they would have and could have. Instead Wagner took control of lots of military facilities.

So the answer pretty simply is that the Russian army does support Wagner against the orders of the MoD - at least a quite significant part does.

At least enough that Wagner does not need to use lots of ammunition if most others are just standing around waving while Wagner drives by.
 

Abizzz

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If Russian soldiers wanted to stop them, they would have and could have. Instead Wagner took control of lots of military facilities.

So the answer pretty simply is that the Russian army does support Wagner against the orders of the MoD - at least a quite significant part does.

At least enough that Wagner does not need to use lots of ammunition if most others are just standing around waving while Wagner drives by.
What is the Russian army at this point? A mix of old disappointed veterans who's friends have been sent to death mixed with a lot of inexperienced unwilling conscriptees?