Russian invasion of Ukraine | Fewer tweets, more discussion

[moses]

Surely the goal is to put a puppet in control of the country.

A puppet won't stay propped up without the Russian army in situ.

 

[nimic]

Surely the goal is to put a puppet in control of the country.

All of the country? He'd have to occupy the country for decades, there's no way Russia can do that.

 

[Rightnr]

China has everyone by the balls economically

They do? Isolating them is impossible but they don't have enough food nor energy to be self-sufficient.

Frankly, the only country in the world that can claim to be able to shrug off complete world isolation after an adjustment period is the US.

 

[nimic]

They do? Isolating them is impossible but they don't have enough food nor energy to be self-sufficient.

Frankly, the only country in the world that can claim to be able to shrug off complete world isolation after an adjustment period is the US.

Isn't their economy the most globalized of them all?

 

[hellhunter]

They do? Isolating them is impossible but they don't have enough food nor energy to be self-sufficient.


Frankly, the only country in the world that can claim to be able to shrug off complete world isolation after an adjustment period is the US.

I'm really not an expert, but without China, there are no semiconductors. Without chips, there are no cars, computers, phones, you name it

Just one example of course

 

[moses]

Isn't their economy the most globalized of them all?

Yep, only slightly less than the EU combined. China is second.

 

[Gringo]

Despite the small victories Ukraine are having, foot soldiers mean nothing when fighting missiles, the question is, how many do Russia have and when do they run out...

 

[moses]

Despite the small victories Ukraine are having, foot soldiers mean nothing when fighting missiles, the question is, how many do Russia have and when do they run out...

If history is anything to go by they don't have as many as we would be lead to believe. So let's hope that's the case.

 

[McGrathsipan]

Isn't their economy the most globalized of them all?

The economy is global, we all need each other. So we need to figure out how to all get along even if we fecking hate each other behind the mask of faux diplomacy

 

[moses]

The economy is global, we all need each other. So we need to figure out how to all get along even if we fecking hate each other behind the mask of faux diplomacy

Yes, of course, I wasn't saying otherwise.

 

[Sir Matt]

I'm really not an expert, but without China, there are no semiconductors. Without chips, there are no cars, computers, phones, you name it

Just one example of course

Until China invades Taiwan, they don’t have chips either.

 

[Rightnr]

Isn't their economy the most globalized of them all?

My point is about the survival basics - food and energy. Everything else is a matter of cost, really.

Yes, China make a lot of trinkets but I would bet on the US in a complete isolation scenario.

 

[moses]

Until China invades Taiwan, they don’t have chips either.

If they stay out of Ukraine they might get a free run at Taiwan.

 

[VorZakone]

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[moses]

My point is about the survival basics - food and energy. Everything else is a matter of cost, really.

Yes, China make a lot of trinkets but I would bet on the US in a complete isolation scenario.

It's a grim thought experiment but I'd bet on authoritarian China to be able to move quicker to fill any gaps. They could repurpose factories at a whim.

Also they could absorb any fatalities in the transition.

 

[TwoSheds]

I'm really not an expert, but without China, there are no semiconductors. Without chips, there are no cars, computers, phones, you name it

Just one example of course

There are other places around the world where rare earths come from and Taiwan is not part of China and actually produces most of the chips. Problem is many of the rare earths are a) dominated by Chinese production and b) dirty and horrible to produce. Likely would mean scraps over resources outside China and increased pollution and ecocide that is often currently largely limited to China. Technological advances could help this though of course. The Americans and EU should be starting to think about these things now and investing appropriately.

 

[moses]

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It's almost like a game of Manufacturing Consent.

 

[sun_tzu]

Until China invades Taiwan, they don’t have chips either.

Smic... About 5% of world market ... But yeah insignificant compared to tsmc

 

[MTF]

Just remember that in the past countries have declared war on their largest trading partners. One example is Germany declaring war on Russia in 1914 and also risking war with Britain by invading Belgium, which were their largest trading partners before hostilities. I bring it up just to point out the fact that when countries decide that their are essential geopolitical interests at stake, they have in the past been willing to significantly harm their own economies.

I don't think the interdependence of China's economy with that of the US and Europe is enough to guarantee their won't be hostilities. What is surprising to me is that China is willing to tolerate such animosity to support Russia's ambitions in Ukraine. I would imagine that even to them it would only be a cost worth paying over their own ambitions in Taiwan.

 

[TwoSheds]

It's a grim thought experiment but I'd bet on authoritarian China to be able to move quicker to fill any gaps. They could repurpose factories at a whim.

Also they could absorb any fatalities in the transition.

Whilst I agree, I think the quality of their products and innovation will suffer greatly without western support. For example they produce diesel engines by the million but nobody wants to put a Chinese diesel injector in them, they use Bosch, Cummins etc. The really technical products are something that the majority of their population are not set up to think laterally enough to design, build and maintain. At least in my experience. It's a weakness of a repressive education system and society in my view.

 

[Rightnr]

There are other places around the world where rare earths come from and Taiwan is not part of China and actually produces most of the chips. Problem is many of the rare earths are a) dominated by Chinese production and b) dirty and horrible to produce. Likely would mean scraps over resources outside China and increased pollution and ecocide that is often currently largely limited to China. Technological advances could help this though of course. The Americans and EU should be starting to think about these things now and investing appropriately.

Pretty sure the US has companies looking to address that imbalance already. But we digress.

 

[nimic]

My point is about the survival basics - food and energy. Everything else is a matter of cost, really.

Yes, China make a lot of trinkets but I would bet on the US in a complete isolation scenario.

In that case Russia are actually in an excellent position. Food and energy are the two things they have in massive abundance.

 

[RedDevilQuebecois]

It's a grim thought experiment but I'd bet on authoritarian China to be able to move quicker to fill any gaps. They could repurpose factories at a whim.

Also they could absorb any fatalities in the transition.

You forget one major detail: several Chinese families have only one child or two at the most as by-products of that old birth control law. If fatalities hit them, we talk about families being wiped out in the sense that no one would be left to take over the elderly generation(s) within the family.

edit: I forgot to add that, despite recent law changes for births, Chinese adults of child-bearing age are mostly giving the middle finger to the idea of having more children. And even for those willing to have more children, it will take at least 3 decades to counter the increased ageing of the population.

 

[moses]

Whilst I agree, I think the quality of their products and innovation will suffer greatly without western support. For example they produce diesel engines by the million but nobody wants to put a Chinese diesel injector in them, they use Bosch, Cummins etc. The really technical products are something that the majority of their population are not set up to think laterally enough to design, build and maintain. At least in my experience. It's a weakness of a repressive education system and society in my view.

There has always been that thinking in terms of excellence and it is definitely a point that can't be dismissed but I think it's more applicable to do with innovation. I think where excellence is required it can be achieved but I'm happy to leave it there and not derail the thread too much.

 

[moses]

You forget one major detail: several Chinese families have only one child or two at the most as by-products of that old birth control law. If fatalities hit them, we talk about families being wiped out in the sense that no one would be left to take over the elderly generation(s) within the family.

Like I say, a grim thought experiment, and sections of society can be deemed irrelevant and disposable in defence of the state. I'm not advocating China in any way and they have shown that they are not averse to sacrificing citizens.

 

[Shane88]

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God, what an arsehole.

Watch this be a new thing; country leaders going "casual" to appear uncuntish.

 

[Mr Pigeon]

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"See Zelensky? I'm just like you, except my country isn't being bombed to feck."

 

[VorZakone]

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[sun_tzu]

In that case Russia are actually in an excellent position. Food and energy are the two things they have in massive abundance.

Especially as they have just captured the world's bread basket and a fek ton of extra gas reserves

 

[Vidic_In_Moscow]

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I just groaned like Gary Neville watching maguire giving away a penalty. In before Trudeau puts on Rambo face

 

[GlastonSpur]

Despite the small victories Ukraine are having, foot soldiers mean nothing when fighting missiles, the question is, how many do Russia have and when do they run out...

Missiles can't take and occupy cities - or any other territory for that matter. If you want to do that you need boots on the ground - and Russia doesn't have enough of these.

 

[tomaldinho1]

China has everyone by the balls economically

I don’t think that’s true at all, there’s a difference between China being an economic power (obviously true) and China being economically independent. The very fact their economy is export dependent is a big clue.

 

[Frosty]

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[moses]

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That's ballsy!

 

[Rado_N]

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Troll level: master.

 

[tomaldinho1]

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If Russia has lost 10% of its initial force that was amassed at the border, that’s over 20,000 dead or injured.

 

[GlastonSpur]

The BBC reports:

"Ukraine's economy is set to contract by 10% this year as a result of Russia's invasion, but the outlook could worsen sharply if the conflict continues, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) says in a newly-released staff report.

The report, prepared ahead of the IMF's approval of $1.4bn (£1.1bn) in emergency financing for Ukraine, warns the country's economic output could shrink by 25% to 35%, based on GDP data from Iraq, Lebanon and other countries at war."

 

[GlastonSpur]

If Russia has lost 10% of its initial force that was amassed at the border, that’s over 20,000 dead or injured.

Yep, and in another month that figure may well hit at least 70,000. The Russian invasion is simply unsustainable.

 

[VorZakone]

2 days? What were they smoking in the Kremlin?

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[stefan92]

Yep, and in another month that figure may well hit at least 70,000. The Russian invasion is simply unsustainable.

Additionally you have to consider that a lot of those losses happened to elite troops. Russia has a huuuge amount of soldiers still available, but a lot of them are only useful as cannon fodder as they lack skills and equipment for difficult operations.

Luckily at least some of these guys still seem to have some human decency as seen in the clip of the old couple sending looting Russians away, and them obeying without getting violent.

10% losses is a lot, but if you consider this it could easily be 20-30% of the motivated ones. And that's massive.