Russian invasion of Ukraine | Fewer tweets, more discussion

TMDaines

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Russia attacked at least five smaller regional train stations in the west of Ukraine today:

 

Beans

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Ukraine actually attacking Russia would be exactly the scenario were Russian doctrine suggests using nuclear weapons for self defense of their homeland.

Some small attacks likely wouldn’t be enough as we have already seen, but assured destruction of anyone launching a large scale attack on Russia is key to their defense strategy. It only becomes MAD when the attacker also has large scale nuclear capabilities.

Russian doctrine also considers the use of tactical nuclear attacks to "deescalate" a conflict, so this keeps to be worrying. Maybe they really believe that they are actually fighting a war against NATO so that MAD already applies here, but who knows?

I was wrong about a lot of things I thought the Russians wouldn't do, so I just share my thoughts about their published theories, I won't do any real predictions for this.
Sure, I just take it as a given that any incursion would have to be stealthy and you couldn’t stay. Ideally it would be done with artillery fired from Ukraine or from the air.

But my scenario isn’t a self-defense scenario, Ukraine would be taking out weapons attacking Ukraine only, not actually attacking Russia with some goal of taking territory or concessions.

Russia may decide not to notice the difference, but surely no one can seriously think the Ukrainian army could occupy Russia.

From the bit I’ve read, Russia and the US are both concerned that the limited use of “tactical” nukes could result in escalation leading to Armageddon, saying they would treat it just like a big nuke.
 

stefan92

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:lol:
A solid start, but the last two things just ruin it. Forged Russian passports would make much more sense, and who would be so stupid to bring Ukrainian nationalist literature to Russia in these times? :lol:
 

stefan92

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Sure, I just take it as a given that any incursion would have to be stealthy and you couldn’t stay. Ideally it would be done with artillery fired from Ukraine or from the air.

But my scenario isn’t a self-defense scenario, Ukraine would be taking out weapons attacking Ukraine only, not actually attacking Russia with some goal of taking territory or concessions.

Russia may decide not to notice the difference, but surely no one can seriously think the Ukrainian army could occupy Russia.

From the bit I’ve read, Russia and the US are both concerned that the limited use of “tactical” nukes could result in escalation leading to Armageddon, saying they would treat it just like a big nuke.
The problem with your scenario is that you would have to take targets like the Air Force Base Engels where the Tu-160 strategic bombers are at home (which can be used to carry Kalibr cruise missiles close to the Ukrainian border and fire them safely from Russian airspace. That is so deep in Russia that I doubt such chirurgical but massive attacks are possible for Ukraine.
 

pablo__p

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Wow. With friends like these, who needs enemies? Former mayor of Düsseldorf and SPD party member posted this and then had to retract it. The whole gamut of downplaying and doubting Russia's atrocities and finger pointing at Ukraine. Can't find the text of the original to provide a translation.


As a Pole... Dear parents, dear grandparents, thank you for always being right about both RU and DE. And sorry for being a naive puppy who thought DE had changed.
 

Zehner

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As a Pole... Dear parents, dear grandparents, thank you for always being right about both RU and DE. And sorry for being a naive puppy who thought DE had changed.
I can only say to you that the majority of us doesn't agree with anything he said. Most Germans stand fully behind Ukraine. At the beginning of the war, there were demonstrations with up to 250.000 people and Ukraine flags everywhere you could see.

We just happen to have a bunch of questionable politicians who are revealing their true colors more and more. And it's just the latest chapter in a long line of corruption stories surrounding especially the two historically biggest parties CDU/CSU and SPD.

But people are beginning to realize it, even before the war. The two biggest parties are in a downwards trajectory while the Greens and the Liberals are gaining support. And while they aren't saints either, they left a much better impression in this whole mess if you ask me.
 

Stookie

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Can I just say thanks to everyone who contributes to this thread with updates and tweets etc. I go to this thread before I read anything else on the matter.
 

Simbo

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(Sound on)

Top Gun version coming soon...
 

Simbo

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From 5 days ago:

I do wonder if Russia is setting off a few things to try to make the case for a declared war more palatable.
Yeh no way they'd blow up their own oil depots, and if they are evacuating military families from bordering areas, it is to panic the Russian people into thinking they are at risk of invasion.

In my opinion.
 

Sir Matt

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Yeh no way they'd blow up their own oil depots, and if they are evacuating military families from bordering areas, it is to panic the Russian people into thinking they are at risk of invasion.

In my opinion.
Yeah, turns out it was likely a Bayraktar TB2.


 

Raoul

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Yeah, turns out it was likely a Bayraktar TB2.


Putin is now getting cucked before the world inside his own country, by another country that he doesn't think legitimately exists.

How would a deranged dictator with nukes, who has built his entire mythology around faux shirtless masculinity react to this level of humiliation ?
 

Sir Matt

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:lol::lol::lol::lol: Anti-System Fighter definitely screams Russian FSB trying to make up a violent sounding English t-shirt, but it seems it’s just a punk band shirt.
 

GlastonSpur

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Oh no! I mentioned Vladivostok in an earlier post about the fanning out across Russia of Ukrainian saboteurs who've been allegedly trained by the special, special forces SAS folk disguised (according to Russia) as medics.

It's all happening much faster than I thought :lol:
 

GlastonSpur

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:lol::lol::lol::lol: Anti-System Fighter definitely screams Russian FSB trying to make up a violent sounding English t-shirt, but it seems it’s just a punk band shirt.
Wait, are those pictures a spoof, or are they actual "evidence" provided by the FSB?
 

klsv

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:lol::lol::lol::lol: Anti-System Fighter definitely screams Russian FSB trying to make up a violent sounding English t-shirt, but it seems it’s just a punk band shirt.
Two bands by this name, UK based antifascist anarcho-punk or a nazi punk band from Russia :lol:
 

The Firestarter

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Putin is now getting cucked before the world inside his own country, by another country that he doesn't think legitimately exists.

How would a deranged dictator with nukes, who has built his entire mythology around faux shirtless masculinity react to this level of humiliation ?
By demonstraring power in the black sea was it?
 

Organic Potatoes

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Zooming in here on the salient. Izium is in the upper left where Russia is making a strong push south from.

 

GlastonSpur

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The BBC reports:

"... The UK ... said it had assessed that approximately 15,000 Russian military personnel had been killed since the invasion began"
 

NicolaSacco

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Yeah, turns out it was likely a Bayraktar TB2.


I find this particular element of the war fascinating. It feels very very high risk for Ukraine to be taking the fight inside Russia. Which makes me think that those strikes have been at such key targets that the potential blowback was considered worth the risk. I’d assume any strike inside Russia would need Zelensky’s express authorisation, but I don’t know that obviously.
 

4bars

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Now we see exactly that happen what I discussed here (and was heavily criticised for) around the Steinmeier visit that was cancelled by Zelensky, which I called a stupid move.

Ukrainian diplomats use a much more aggressive language towards Germany than the Russians do and therefore those who are close to Russia have a field day finger pointing at Ukraine.

It's not what the majority of Germans thinks, but Melnyk and Zelensky just make it so simple for Russian apologists in Germany.
Sure, Ukraine was wearing a miniskirt, what was she thinking fighting back against the one that is complicit (financing) of who is raping her. The only think that Ukraine will accomplish with that is that germany will testify against she.

Better to shut up. Or the SPD russian friendly will get mad and they will voice out that they still friends with an aggressor country

Man. There is a war. Germany fecked it up long term on dependency. Is even forgivable bc no one would imagine that this would never happen. It was in part evengood trying to smooth out russia trying to have friendly ties. But now germany is dragging its feet all over the place in many areas. And zelensky call germany out. Thats it.

If that makes resurface russian friendly german politicians the better. Because that confirms why zelenky called out Germany and some action can be taken.

Sorry you felt insulted mate. Hope you feel better

Hope ukranians in caf can appologize between bombardments financed by the west still