Sure, I just take it as a given that any incursion would have to be stealthy and you couldn’t stay. Ideally it would be done with artillery fired from Ukraine or from the air.Ukraine actually attacking Russia would be exactly the scenario were Russian doctrine suggests using nuclear weapons for self defense of their homeland.
Some small attacks likely wouldn’t be enough as we have already seen, but assured destruction of anyone launching a large scale attack on Russia is key to their defense strategy. It only becomes MAD when the attacker also has large scale nuclear capabilities.
Russian doctrine also considers the use of tactical nuclear attacks to "deescalate" a conflict, so this keeps to be worrying. Maybe they really believe that they are actually fighting a war against NATO so that MAD already applies here, but who knows?
I was wrong about a lot of things I thought the Russians wouldn't do, so I just share my thoughts about their published theories, I won't do any real predictions for this.
A solid start, but the last two things just ruin it. Forged Russian passports would make much more sense, and who would be so stupid to bring Ukrainian nationalist literature to Russia in these times?Tweet
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It works, toowhy did i have one the 1st day of xmas in my head when reading that list
The problem with your scenario is that you would have to take targets like the Air Force Base Engels where the Tu-160 strategic bombers are at home (which can be used to carry Kalibr cruise missiles close to the Ukrainian border and fire them safely from Russian airspace. That is so deep in Russia that I doubt such chirurgical but massive attacks are possible for Ukraine.Sure, I just take it as a given that any incursion would have to be stealthy and you couldn’t stay. Ideally it would be done with artillery fired from Ukraine or from the air.
But my scenario isn’t a self-defense scenario, Ukraine would be taking out weapons attacking Ukraine only, not actually attacking Russia with some goal of taking territory or concessions.
Russia may decide not to notice the difference, but surely no one can seriously think the Ukrainian army could occupy Russia.
From the bit I’ve read, Russia and the US are both concerned that the limited use of “tactical” nukes could result in escalation leading to Armageddon, saying they would treat it just like a big nuke.
Wow. With friends like these, who needs enemies? Former mayor of Düsseldorf and SPD party member posted this and then had to retract it. The whole gamut of downplaying and doubting Russia's atrocities and finger pointing at Ukraine. Can't find the text of the original to provide a translation.
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As a Pole... Dear parents, dear grandparents, thank you for always being right about both RU and DE. And sorry for being a naive puppy who thought DE had changed.
I can only say to you that the majority of us doesn't agree with anything he said. Most Germans stand fully behind Ukraine. At the beginning of the war, there were demonstrations with up to 250.000 people and Ukraine flags everywhere you could see.As a Pole... Dear parents, dear grandparents, thank you for always being right about both RU and DE. And sorry for being a naive puppy who thought DE had changed.
Same. I always check this thread first. Again, thanks to those who keep it updated.Can I just say thanks to everyone who contributes to this thread with updates and tweets etc. I go to this thread before I read anything else on the matter.
Yeh no way they'd blow up their own oil depots, and if they are evacuating military families from bordering areas, it is to panic the Russian people into thinking they are at risk of invasion.From 5 days ago:
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I do wonder if Russia is setting off a few things to try to make the case for a declared war more palatable.
Yeah, turns out it was likely a Bayraktar TB2.Yeh no way they'd blow up their own oil depots, and if they are evacuating military families from bordering areas, it is to panic the Russian people into thinking they are at risk of invasion.
In my opinion.
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Putin is now getting cucked before the world inside his own country, by another country that he doesn't think legitimately exists.
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I love that the swastika shirt still has the creases in it from where it was folded into a boxTweet
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Anti-System Fighter definitely screams Russian FSB trying to make up a violent sounding English t-shirt, but it seems it’s just a punk band shirt.
Oh no! I mentioned Vladivostok in an earlier post about the fanning out across Russia of Ukrainian saboteurs who've been allegedly trained by the special, special forces SAS folk disguised (according to Russia) as medics.Tweet
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Wait, are those pictures a spoof, or are they actual "evidence" provided by the FSB?Tweet
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Anti-System Fighter definitely screams Russian FSB trying to make up a violent sounding English t-shirt, but it seems it’s just a punk band shirt.
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Two bands by this name, UK based antifascist anarcho-punk or a nazi punk band from RussiaTweet
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Anti-System Fighter definitely screams Russian FSB trying to make up a violent sounding English t-shirt, but it seems it’s just a punk band shirt.
Likewise!Can I just say thanks to everyone who contributes to this thread with updates and tweets etc. I go to this thread before I read anything else on the matter.
By demonstraring power in the black sea was it?Putin is now getting cucked before the world inside his own country, by another country that he doesn't think legitimately exists.
How would a deranged dictator with nukes, who has built his entire mythology around faux shirtless masculinity react to this level of humiliation ?
Add that to the list of humiliations that will ultimately make him crack or go off the deep end.By demonstraring power in the black sea was it?
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I find this particular element of the war fascinating. It feels very very high risk for Ukraine to be taking the fight inside Russia. Which makes me think that those strikes have been at such key targets that the potential blowback was considered worth the risk. I’d assume any strike inside Russia would need Zelensky’s express authorisation, but I don’t know that obviously.
Sure, Ukraine was wearing a miniskirt, what was she thinking fighting back against the one that is complicit (financing) of who is raping her. The only think that Ukraine will accomplish with that is that germany will testify against she.Now we see exactly that happen what I discussed here (and was heavily criticised for) around the Steinmeier visit that was cancelled by Zelensky, which I called a stupid move.
Ukrainian diplomats use a much more aggressive language towards Germany than the Russians do and therefore those who are close to Russia have a field day finger pointing at Ukraine.
It's not what the majority of Germans thinks, but Melnyk and Zelensky just make it so simple for Russian apologists in Germany.