Russian invasion of Ukraine | Fewer tweets, more discussion

Organic Potatoes

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Now I got worried about the dejournalistification of Ukraine :(

And now for something completely different, are there any news from the battlefront?
This a the best map I saw after a quick search for the counterattack in the south. Getting conflicting reports about how successful it has been. But it’s potentially significant.


The eastern portion is the same as in recent days: Russia grinding their way along towards a secondary encirclement.
 

the hea

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And now for something completely different, are there any news from the battlefront?
Still heavy battles in the east but with very small to no gains for the Russians and there are even reports about Ukrainian forces have managed to retake a villige outside of Popsana.

North east of Cherson Ukrainian forces have started a counter attack and have crossed the Inhulets river after Russians where forced back from their positions.
 

calodo2003

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He's not banned from the rest of the site, only taking a temporary break from this thread.
Call it compassionate leave, he was just digging his own hole.

With those views, he could easily pass for a Trumpist with all the intentional & willful ignorance.
 

ShoePolish

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Russia making slow but steady progress in the Donbass.

Not surprising given the sheer manpower and weapons that Russia has, being used in a localized attack on Donbass. Lets see how greedy they will be, and whether they will try to grab more, as that might end very badly for them.
 

fergosaurus

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Someone is justifying mass genocide and war crimes with the comeback of a 5 year old ... "prove it".

His reply to Watermelon was probably the worst post I've ever seen on this site. No idea how not deleted all his posts and banned.
Water Melon shares that he lost around 30 people and his wife's cousin's 6yo daughter was raped and burnt along with her grandmother and this is what he chooses to respond with...

You don’t get to call someone names just because you lost someone.
Because defending these absolute cretins from being called orcs is more important than showing a bit of empathy and compassion for a fellow poster sharing horrific experiences.
 

Rajma

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Report me to the mods. I have lost around 30 people in this war, while my wife's cousin's 6 year old daughter was raped and her body burnt afterwards along with that of her grandmother by those orcs. Army of orcs being led by the chief rushist. They are there for money and cruelty. May they rest in pieces and eternal hell. I am not calling Russians orcs. Read it again. I am calling those soldiers orcs and their commander in chief is the rushist, head of orcs. @harms is Russian and to me he is an exceptionally good person.
I’m lost for words, feel like crying just reading this. I’m so sorry mate…
 
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Water Melon shares that he lost around 30 people and his wife's cousin's 6yo daughter was raped and burnt along with her grandmother and this is what he chooses to respond with...



Because defending these absolute cretins from being called orcs is more important than showing a bit of empathy and compassion for a fellow poster sharing horrific experiences.
Just gone to other threads :rolleyes:



It was; are we the baddies… peep show meme. Feel free to rip the piss. Hahaa
 

BootsyCollins

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Report me to the mods. I have lost around 30 people in this war, while my wife's cousin's 6 year old daughter was raped and her body burnt afterwards along with that of her grandmother by those orcs. Army of orcs being led by the chief rushist. They are there for money and cruelty. May they rest in pieces and eternal hell. I am not calling Russians orcs. Read it again. I am calling those soldiers orcs and their commander in chief is the rushist, head of orcs. @harms is Russian and to me he is an exceptionally good person.
The worst i ever read on this site. I cant even imagine what you must be feeling.
May they find peace.
 

Carolina Red

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Very simple. Very scientific. Photos of corpses could not have been left there from the time Russians left to the time Ukrainians got there.

Corpses bloat and turn blue/green/yellow.

People in bucha we’re relatively fresh corpses. It’s just that simple.

However, my dad, whom has fought in this conflict has said that foreign mercenaries have been executed on the spot which is a war crime so by no means I’m denying Russians of being holier than thou
This is a real piece of shit post.
 

TwoSheds

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I feel like if Russian tennis players can be banned from Wimbledon just for not denouncing the war, @Paxi can be banned from a football forum for admitting he thinks his dad is a war criminal by omission. I wonder what everyone else's views are on the matter?
 

Rajma

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Some positive to this thread! Took us just 3 days! Thanks to anyone who had contributed to this crowdfunding initiative.
 

unchanged_lineup

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Water Melon shares that he lost around 30 people and his wife's cousin's 6yo daughter was raped and burnt along with her grandmother and this is what he chooses to respond with...



Because defending these absolute cretins from being called orcs is more important than showing a bit of empathy and compassion for a fellow poster sharing horrific experiences.
Yeah I agree with the person who said this is probably the worst thing they've ever read here. This is a disgusting response.
 

DT12

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Last post, probably to everyone's benefit and certainly mine.

Glaston, re: your last reply to me -

You say I'm swallowing Russian propaganda. Is it Russian propaganda that 45 minutes from me there are factories that supply components for Russian tanks, and they are working just fine? Hence, your claim from a couple of months back that "Russia's only factory that supplies components for their tanks" (that'll never stop being funny to me) is due to shut down and the war is going to be over within weeks was nonsense?

Is it Russian propaganda that a few weeks ago I sat down with a friend whose company builds helicopters for Gazprom and he walked me through the mechanism of how they get around sanctions for their military contracts?

Is it Russian propaganda that on the dates you and others in here have been saying Putin is having surgery for cancer he's been holding video calls with Macron?

Is it Russian propaganda that despite what the West promised back in March the ruble is not "rubble" and the Russian economy has not been destroyed "by June"?

Is it Russian propaganda that over the last 2 weeks an escalating number of battles within this war have had their status switched from "on-going" to "Russian victory"?

Is it Russian propaganda that the claim that "40 billion dollars for Ukraine" is nowhere close to "40 billion dollars for Ukraine", it's actually closer to "19 billion dollars for all of Ukraine's needs and the rest is for the US to replenish its stocks over the next 10 years" (Biden met with the CEO of Lockheed Martin last week to thrash out the details)?

Is it Russian propaganda that everyone from Lloyd Austin to Pelosi to Schumer to Blinken to Biden to Johnson to Truss to (2 days ago) Scholz has been saying that only Ukrainian victory is the goal ("We will support Ukraine until victory is won" as the delegation from the US said when they visited Ukraine)...and yet of late everyone has been calling on Putin to negotiate peace terms with Zelenskiy? You don't see the disconnect here:

Monday: "Our aim is Ukrainian victory and a weakened Russia!"

Wednesday: "Ukraine is winning this war and Russia is being further weakened by the day!"

Friday: "Putin, stop this war!!".

Just today both Macron and Scholz called Putin and, according to the readout of their call, pressed him to talk to Zelenskiy and negotiate peace. Why? If the aim is "Ukrainian victory", and Ukraine is "winning", why are they asking Putin to stop it?

Is it Russian propaganda that there is a huge disconnect between what the Ukrainian politicians are saying and what the Ukrainian generals and military commanders are saying?

Is it Russian propaganda that (per that BBC article I linked) people in Ukraine are starting to turn on Zelenskiy, saying (also per that article) "this would not have happened under Poroshenko"? And is it also Russian propaganda that last night, lo and behold, Poroshenko was detained at the Polish border when he tried to leave Ukraine to attend a NATO meeting?

Is it Russian propaganda that despite America promising to "do everything we can to help Ukraine until victory is won", the Pentagon today reiterated that "no decisions have been made" on sending long-range rocket systems to Ukraine for fear Russia will see it as an escalation? "We promise our Ukrainian friends that they WILL defeat Russia with our help!!! But....err, we also don't want Putin to think we're escalating anything here". And is it Russian propaganda that Ukraine's Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba voiced his frustration with Washington's mixed messaging on Thursday by saying: “My least favorite phrase is ‘We are working on it’; I hate it. I want to hear either ‘We got it’ or ‘It’s not going to happen’?



Look, Glaston, I'm sorry for my earlier rudeness to you but the point I am making is a very serious one (someone earlier in the thread dismissed my posts as "picking apart tweets" but that's missing my point). I could use any number of examples to make my point but instead I'll use this one because it's probably most illustrative. On April 29th, you posted the following in this thread (post #28,715 on page 718):


The BBC reports:

" Russian forces will collapse in weeks, predicts military expert

Russia's assault on Donbas has "sort of fizzled" and the battle for the region will be over in two to four weeks, says military expert Dr Mike Martin.

The war studies visiting fellow at King's College London says: "Basically the Russians are gonna run out of troops, and the Ukrainians are going to counterattack."

The Russians have squandered their one chance to take the region, he believes.

"They pulled all of these mauled units out of Kyiv, and then tried to reconstitute them for combat in the east," he explains.

But they were "bruised and damaged" by the battle for the Ukrainian capital and Russia failed to build them up and "do some bold manoeuvre".

And Martin says there has been a "major strategic shift" in the war, with the UK declaring its aim is to clear Russian forces from Ukraine, including Crimea.

He adds that UK Foreign Secretary Liz Truss is "wrong", however, to say this would take 10 years, insisting: "Russian forces will collapse before that, and we’ll see a coup."

And with the US announcing US$33bn (£26bn) of funding for Ukraine, "that is an extremely clear signal of intent", says Martin.

It also means Nato and the US have decided Vladimir Putin is bluffing about using nuclear weapons if Nato up the ante, he adds."



"Military expert Dr Mike Martin" is quite the celebrity over here and has been for a while, his absolutely ridiculous claims on a variety of geopolitical issues are often used as an example of who the Western media looks to for their "expert analysis" (Martin's commentary on Afghanistan back in the day was also a hoot). In that passage that you've quoted, Martin claimed the battle for the Donbas would be over in 2 to 4 weeks because Russia would run out of troops (a spectacularly stupid claim to anyone who knows even the remotest thing about this war), yet sure enough, there was the BBC parroting this idiot's take. And now here we are a month later and Donbas is probably a few weeks away from falling to Russia.

Now the point I'm making is not, on this occasion, to raise an eyebrow at you and your sources, because here you're quoting the BBC. But here's the thing: if "Russian state propaganda" were not banned in the West (as it now is - I guess it was felt you're all too incapable of deciding for yourselves what's accurate in your free speech democracies), you would have known that what Martin said was absolutely preposterous, because you'd have been able to watch a discussion programme on RT giving an overview of this clown's previous gibberish 'predictions'. Likewise, if "Russian state propaganda" were not banned in the West you would have seen Putin holding a meeting with Mishustin and Matvienko on the very day your famous unnamed "Western officials" claimed Putin was having cancer surgery. If "Russian state propaganda" were not banned in the West you would be hearing about the progress of the war not solely through the words of pro-Ukrainian sources, but also pro-Russian sources (for whom you are welcome to have contempt but you shouldn't allow your contempt to cut you off from information). If "Russian state propaganda" were not blocked in the West you would be able to hear the far less optimistic evaluation of the war from Ukrainian generals and commanders, instead of Zelenskiy, whose job is to do all he can to maintain the morale of Ukrainian soldiers and people, and that often involves massively exaggerating Russian losses and Ukrainian gains. Finally - you (Glaston) have posted many, many times about the numbers of alleged Russian losses in this war. You have not once posted about Ukrainian losses. So I am going to set you a challenge. In your next post, please give what you think is an accurate number of Ukrainian losses to date. You might need to use a VPN to access banned "Russian state propaganda" which cites actual Ukrainian commanders on the ground. The same guys who (one example from countless), while Zelenskiy was insisting that only 8 soldiers died in a recent Russian strike in Desna, were saying "What the hell are you talking about, it was 87", which days later Zelenskiy finally admitted:

https://news.yahoo.com/zelensky-says-87-killed-may-155221449.html

Yes, Russia has sustained huge losses. So has Ukraine. And what's key is this: Russia's capacity to sustain losses and keep going is several orders of magnitude higher than Ukraine's (as acknowledged by Luhansk govenor Serhiy Haidai), hence Kirby saying time is not on their side now.

I'll sum up. I know that Russian TV promulgates propaganda. More importantly, I am able to recognise it when I hear it, because as best I can I try to verify information. Unlike you, I have full access to both sides of the information war. And my overall point is: the West has propaganda too, and I'm not convinced some of you here a) realise that or b) recognise propaganda when you hear it. If you go to any other thread on this forum's political page you'll find wall to wall complaining about how the government are a bunch of self-serving liars, yet almost without fail whenever the issue is foreign policy people trust the integrity and honesty of the folk who have lied to them time after time.

I am not suggesting anyone should accept anything I'm writing here, I know that the vast majority won't and it's not even my aim, but all I'm saying is that if you were to remove all the posts in this thread that have been proven to be wrong, 777 pages would instantly become about 50 pages. This is simply a fact. And for pointing that out you're saying I'm a victim of Russian propaganda. Several excellent posters have been pretty much hounded out of this thread (most notably that Michael Goodman guy), with people even calling for them to be banned for daring to propose something other than the accepted orthodoxy. You're free to continue to do that, I don't doubt it feels good, but so long as it continues, the next 777 pages of this thread will also contain overwhelming amounts of nonsense. I know that you (Glaston) and almost everyone else here is absolutely convinced that it will not happen, but do this thought experiment with me: imagine for a moment that what I've written here comes to pass. That Putin does in fact win this war, and in the manner I've described. Then will you doubt the "experts" who've been telling you for the last 3 months that the Russian army will collapse and Ukrainian victory will certainly happen? Or - as we saw after the "experts" were proven wrong on Brexit and the election of Trump - will you bend over backwards to explain away why they were 'justifiably mistaken'...yet again?

With that I'll check out of the thread because for the last week a bunch of "tolerant Westerners" have been demonstrating their commitment to the Western value of free speech and inclusivity of opinion by calling me names via PM. I haven't and won't respond to any of them, because I'm not a child, but that kind of thing is not why I came to this thread. I wanted to give another side of the issue. For that I'm being sent abusive PMs. Fair enough, I've said my piece for anyone who wants to read it. All I ask is that if and when what I've written comes to pass, remember this exchange, remember how adamant you were that I was spouting nothing but absurd Russian propaganda, and learn from it. Peace.
 
Last edited:

Simbo

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Thanks for the heads up, I will avoid from now on.
That twitter account does share a lot of good content, I wouldn't say it is a bad source. There are just a lot of questions about if he is really on the ground there, he seems to be just plucking it all from various telegram channels while pretending he's in the thick of it.
 

sport2793

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That twitter account does share a lot of good content, I wouldn't say it is a bad source. There are just a lot of questions about if he is really on the ground there, he seems to be just plucking it all from various telegram channels while pretending he's in the thick of it.
Ya I agree with this view, his being on the ground has been seriously questioned by an analyst at Bellingcat, I don't think he necessarily shares disinformation though and is likely just aggregating info from various sources.
 

GlastonSpur

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Last post, probably to everyone's benefit but certainly mine.

Glaston, re: your last reply to me -

You say I'm swallowing Russian propaganda. Is it Russian propaganda that 45 minutes from me there are factories that supply components for Russian tanks, and they are working just fine? Hence, your claim from a couple of months back that "Russia's only factory that supplies components for their tanks" (that'll never stop being funny to me) is due to shut down and the war is going to be over within weeks was nonsense?

Is it Russian propaganda that a few weeks ago I sat down with a friend whose company builds helicopters for Gazprom and he walked me through the mechanism of how they get around sanctions for their military contracts?

Is it Russian propaganda that on the dates you and others in here have been saying Putin is having surgery for cancer he's been holding video calls with Macron?

Is it Russian propaganda that despite what the West promised back in March the ruble is not "rubble" and the Russian economy has not been destroyed "by June"?

Is it Russian propaganda that over the last 2 weeks an escalating number of battles within this war have had their status switched from "on-going" to "Russian victory"?

Is it Russian propaganda that the claim that "40 billion dollars for Ukraine" is nowhere close to "40 billion dollars for Ukraine", it's actually closer to "19 billion dollars for all of Ukraine's needs and the rest is for the US to replenish its stocks over the next 10 years" (Biden met with the CEO of Lockheed Martin last week to thrash out the details)?

Is it Russian propaganda that everyone from Lloyd Austin to Pelosi to Schumer to Blinken to Biden to Johnson to Truss to (2 days ago) Scholz has been saying that only Ukrainian victory is the goal ("We will support Ukraine until victory is won" as the delegation from the US said when they visited Ukraine)...and yet of late everyone has been calling on Putin to negotiate peace terms with Zelenskiy? You don't see the disconnect here:

Monday: "Our aim is Ukrainian victory and a weakened Russia!"

Wednesday: "Ukraine is winning this war and Russia is being further weakened by the day!"

Friday: "Putin, stop this war!!".

Just today both Macron and Scholz called Putin and, according to the readout of their call, pressed him to talk to Zelenskiy and negotiate peace. Why? If the aim is "Ukrainian victory", and Ukraine is "winning", why are they asking Putin to stop it?

Is it Russian propaganda that there is a huge disconnect between what the Ukrainian politicians are saying and what the Ukrainian generals and military commanders are saying?

Is it Russian propaganda that (per that BBC article I linked) people in Ukraine are starting to turn on Zelenskiy, saying (also per that article) "this would not have happened under Poroshenko"? And is it also Russian propaganda that last night, lo and behold, Poroshenko was detained at the Polish border when he tried to leave Ukraine to attend a NATO meeting?

Is it Russian propaganda that despite America promising to "do everything we can to help Ukraine until victory is won", the Pentagon today reiterated that "no decisions have been made" on sending long-range rocket systems to Ukraine for fear Russia will see it as an escalation? "We promise our Ukrainian friends that they WILL defeat Russia with our help!!! But....err, we also don't want Putin to think we're escalating anything here". And is it Russian propaganda that Ukraine's Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba voiced his frustration with Washington's mixed messaging on Thursday by saying: “My least favorite phrase is ‘We are working on it’; I hate it. I want to hear either ‘We got it’ or ‘It’s not going to happen’?



Look, Glaston, I'm sorry for my earlier rudeness to you but the point I am making is a very serious one (someone earlier in the thread dismissed my posts as "picking apart tweets" but that's missing my point). I could use any number of examples to make my point but instead I'll use this one because it's probably most illustrative. On April 29th, you posted the following in this thread (post #28,715 on page 718):


The BBC reports:

" Russian forces will collapse in weeks, predicts military expert

Russia's assault on Donbas has "sort of fizzled" and the battle for the region will be over in two to four weeks, says military expert Dr Mike Martin.

The war studies visiting fellow at King's College London says: "Basically the Russians are gonna run out of troops, and the Ukrainians are going to counterattack."

The Russians have squandered their one chance to take the region, he believes.

"They pulled all of these mauled units out of Kyiv, and then tried to reconstitute them for combat in the east," he explains.

But they were "bruised and damaged" by the battle for the Ukrainian capital and Russia failed to build them up and "do some bold manoeuvre".

And Martin says there has been a "major strategic shift" in the war, with the UK declaring its aim is to clear Russian forces from Ukraine, including Crimea.

He adds that UK Foreign Secretary Liz Truss is "wrong", however, to say this would take 10 years, insisting: "Russian forces will collapse before that, and we’ll see a coup."

And with the US announcing US$33bn (£26bn) of funding for Ukraine, "that is an extremely clear signal of intent", says Martin.

It also means Nato and the US have decided Vladimir Putin is bluffing about using nuclear weapons if Nato up the ante, he adds."



"Military expert Dr Mike Martin" is quite the celebrity over here and has been for a while, his absolutely ridiculous claims on a variety of geopolitical issues are often used as an example of who the Western media looks to for their "expert analysis" (Martin's commentary on Afghanistan back in the day was also a hoot). In that passage that you've quoted, Martin claimed the battle for the Donbas would be over in 2 to 4 weeks because Russia would run out of troops (a spectacularly stupid claim to anyone who knows even the remotest thing about this war), yet sure enough, there was the BBC parroting this idiot's take. And now here we are a month later and Donbas is probably a few weeks away from falling to Russia.

Now the point I'm making is not, on this occasion, to raise an eyebrow at you and your sources, because here you're quoting the BBC. But here's the thing: if "Russian state propaganda" were not banned in the West (as it now is - I guess it was felt you're all too incapable of deciding for yourselves what's accurate in your free speech democracies), you would have known that what Martin said was absolutely preposterous, because you'd have been able to watch a discussion programme on RT giving an overview of this clown's previous gibberish 'predictions'. Likewise, if "Russian state propaganda" were not banned in the West you would have seen Putin holding a meeting with Mishustin and Matvienko on the very day your famous unnamed "Western officials" claimed Putin was having cancer surgery. If "Russian state propaganda" were not banned in the West you would be hearing about the progress of the war not solely through the words of pro-Ukrainian sources, but also pro-Russian sources (for whom you are welcome to have contempt but you shouldn't allow your contempt to cut you off from information). If "Russian state propaganda" were not blocked in the West you would be able to hear the far less optimistic evaluation of the war from Ukrainian generals and commanders, instead of Zelenskiy, whose job is to do all he can to maintain the morale of Ukrainian soldiers and people, and that often involves massively exaggerating Russian losses and Ukrainian gains. Finally - you (Glaston) have posted many, many times about the numbers of alleged Russian losses in this war. You have not once posted about Ukrainian losses. So I am going to set you a challenge. In your next post, please give what you think is an accurate number of Ukrainian losses to date. You might need to use a VPN to access banned "Russian state propaganda" which cites actual Ukrainian commanders on the ground. The same guys who (one example from countless), while Zelenskiy was insisting that only 8 soldiers died in a recent Russian strike in Desna, were saying "What the hell are you talking about, it was 87", which days later Zelenskiy finally admitted:

https://news.yahoo.com/zelensky-says-87-killed-may-155221449.html

Yes, Russia has sustained huge losses. So has Ukraine. And what's key is this: Russia's capacity to sustain losses and keep going is several orders of magnitude higher than Ukraine's (as acknowledged by Luhansk govenor Serhiy Haidai), hence Kirby saying time is not on their side now.

I'll sum up. I know that Russian TV promulgates propaganda. More importantly, I am able to recognise it when I hear it, because as best I can I try to verify information. Unlike you, I have full access to both sides of the information war. And my overall point is: the West has propaganda too, and I'm not convinced some of you here a) realise that or b) recognise propaganda when you hear it. If you go to any other thread on this forum's political page you'll find wall to wall complaining about how the government are a bunch of self-serving liars, yet almost without fail whenever the issue is foreign policy people trust the integrity and honesty of the folk who have lied to them time after time.

I am not suggesting anyone should accept anything I'm writing here, I know that the vast majority won't and it's not even my aim, but all I'm saying is that if you were to remove all the posts in this thread that have been proven to be wrong, 777 pages would instantly become about 50 pages. This is simply a fact. And for pointing that out you're saying I'm a victim of Russian propaganda. Several excellent posters have been pretty much hounded out of this thread (most notably that Michael Goodman guy), with people even calling for them to be banned for daring to propose something other than the accepted orthodoxy. You're free to continue to do that, I don't doubt it feels good, but so long as it continues, the next 777 pages of this thread will also contain overwhelming amounts of nonsense. I know that you (Glaston) and almost everyone else here is absolutely convinced that it will not happen, but do this thought experiment with me: imagine for a moment that what I've written here comes to pass. That Putin does in fact win this war, and in the manner I've described. Then will you doubt the "experts" who've been telling you for the last 3 months that the Russian army will collapse and Ukrainian victory will certainly happen? Or - as we saw after the "experts" were proven wrong on Brexit and the election of Trump - will you bend over backwards to explain away why they were 'justifiably mistaken'...yet again?

With that I'll check out of the thread because for the last week a bunch of "tolerant Westerners" have been demonstrating their commitment to the Western value of free speech and inclusivity of opinion by calling me names via PM. I haven't and won't respond to any of them, because I'm not a child, but that kind of thing is not why I came to this thread. I wanted to give another side of the issue. For that I'm being sent abusive PMs. Fair enough, I've said my piece for anyone who wants to read it. All I ask is that if and when what I've written comes to pass, remember this exchange, remember how adamant you were that I was spouting nothing but absurd Russian propaganda, and learn from it. Peace.
First off, you treat news reports that I've cited as if they were my personal claims or statements. They're news reports - some may prove be accurate or some may not prove to be accurate. Either way, posters can make up their own minds about them, and either way it doesn't mean that I am vouching for it's accuracy ... just as I am not vouching for the truthfulness of Russian State TV whenever I have drawn attention to them in this thread.

Concerning your other points:

1) It doesn't really matter if building helicopters for Gazprom finds a way around sanctions - that's small potatoes. The big picture is impending severe economic decline for Russia - rising unemployment, rising inflation, GDP contraction, possible default on debt repayments, difficulty in maintaining a variety of manufacturing processes and businesses due to shortage of spare parts etc etc. These effects have hardly yet begun to bite, but month by month you will see them get deeper and deeper.

2) It doesn't matter if only $19.billion will be coming from the US because that's on top of other money that's already come from the US, EU, UK and elsewhere - and on top of money yet to come from the EU, UK and elsewhere.

3) It's not true, as you claim, that "everyone has been calling on Putin to negotiate peace terms with Zelenskiy". Some have and some haven't (those that haven't include Biden, Johnson and the leaders of many EU countries). Moreover, most of those calling for negotiations are also calling for Russia to withdraw its troops back to the pre-February 24th borders as key requirement for peace.

4) I've no doubt that the vast majority of Ukrainians support Zelensky big time. Your citing a few who don't is small potatoes - not the big picture.

5) Your citing one military expert (Dr Mike Martin) who got it wrong is more small potatoes, not the big picture. Most western military analysts continue to believe that Russia is losing this war, and that Russia making some small gains here and there in recent weeks has no great significance. Unlike you , it seems, they understand the concept of falling back to pre-prepared defensive lines, having meanwhile inflicted big losses on the attackers. And unlike you, it seems, they understand the significance of Russia being forced to bring 60 year old tanks out of storage and raising the army joining age to 50 years olds. And unlike you, it seems, they understand that more and more sophisticated weapons continue to arrive in Ukraine, and as time passes Ukraine will ready itself for counter-offensives to take back lost ground.

6) Unless Putin opts for full mobilisation by declaring war, your claim that Russia's "capacity to sustain losses and keep going is several orders of magnitude higher than Ukraine's" is simply not true. Ukraine has at least 900,000 reservists, most of whom are not even in the battle as yet. Moreover, it has announced plans to arm a further one million citizens.

7) Whilst there is propaganda from both sides, there is no equivalence - moral or otherwise - between Western propaganda and that of Russian state-controlled media. For starters, Western media encompasses a large number of different sources, as distinct from the single source of the Russian State. And in the West, free discussion takes place. It Russia it doesn't. I've long reached the conclusion that pretty much everything coming from the Russian State is the exact opposite of the truth.

Finally, you wanted to know my guess as to Ukrainian losses. OK, I'll guess at 40,000 personnel out of action one way or another (dead, wounded, captured etc) - or somewhere been 30 - 50% of Russia's losses.
 

TMDaines

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:lol: So much new TV to watch this weekend but this thread on fire today.
Tell me you are Russian without telling me you are Russian: rehashing and getting overly excited about Azov, without any sense of self-awareness about the complete fascist takeover happening in the Motherland.

Oh, and now Luhansk and Donetsk republics are entirely the same as Kosovo. I look forward to being told with a straight face that the people of Kherson have always wanted to be independent or part of Russia… but if only the Russophiles could yet tell which!
 

Rajma

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Last post, probably to everyone's benefit but certainly mine.

Glaston, re: your last reply to me -

You say I'm swallowing Russian propaganda. Is it Russian propaganda that 45 minutes from me there are factories that supply components for Russian tanks, and they are working just fine? Hence, your claim from a couple of months back that "Russia's only factory that supplies components for their tanks" (that'll never stop being funny to me) is due to shut down and the war is going to be over within weeks was nonsense?

Is it Russian propaganda that a few weeks ago I sat down with a friend whose company builds helicopters for Gazprom and he walked me through the mechanism of how they get around sanctions for their military contracts?

Is it Russian propaganda that on the dates you and others in here have been saying Putin is having surgery for cancer he's been holding video calls with Macron?

Is it Russian propaganda that despite what the West promised back in March the ruble is not "rubble" and the Russian economy has not been destroyed "by June"?

Is it Russian propaganda that over the last 2 weeks an escalating number of battles within this war have had their status switched from "on-going" to "Russian victory"?

Is it Russian propaganda that the claim that "40 billion dollars for Ukraine" is nowhere close to "40 billion dollars for Ukraine", it's actually closer to "19 billion dollars for all of Ukraine's needs and the rest is for the US to replenish its stocks over the next 10 years" (Biden met with the CEO of Lockheed Martin last week to thrash out the details)?

Is it Russian propaganda that everyone from Lloyd Austin to Pelosi to Schumer to Blinken to Biden to Johnson to Truss to (2 days ago) Scholz has been saying that only Ukrainian victory is the goal ("We will support Ukraine until victory is won" as the delegation from the US said when they visited Ukraine)...and yet of late everyone has been calling on Putin to negotiate peace terms with Zelenskiy? You don't see the disconnect here:

Monday: "Our aim is Ukrainian victory and a weakened Russia!"

Wednesday: "Ukraine is winning this war and Russia is being further weakened by the day!"

Friday: "Putin, stop this war!!".

Just today both Macron and Scholz called Putin and, according to the readout of their call, pressed him to talk to Zelenskiy and negotiate peace. Why? If the aim is "Ukrainian victory", and Ukraine is "winning", why are they asking Putin to stop it?

Is it Russian propaganda that there is a huge disconnect between what the Ukrainian politicians are saying and what the Ukrainian generals and military commanders are saying?

Is it Russian propaganda that (per that BBC article I linked) people in Ukraine are starting to turn on Zelenskiy, saying (also per that article) "this would not have happened under Poroshenko"? And is it also Russian propaganda that last night, lo and behold, Poroshenko was detained at the Polish border when he tried to leave Ukraine to attend a NATO meeting?

Is it Russian propaganda that despite America promising to "do everything we can to help Ukraine until victory is won", the Pentagon today reiterated that "no decisions have been made" on sending long-range rocket systems to Ukraine for fear Russia will see it as an escalation? "We promise our Ukrainian friends that they WILL defeat Russia with our help!!! But....err, we also don't want Putin to think we're escalating anything here". And is it Russian propaganda that Ukraine's Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba voiced his frustration with Washington's mixed messaging on Thursday by saying: “My least favorite phrase is ‘We are working on it’; I hate it. I want to hear either ‘We got it’ or ‘It’s not going to happen’?



Look, Glaston, I'm sorry for my earlier rudeness to you but the point I am making is a very serious one (someone earlier in the thread dismissed my posts as "picking apart tweets" but that's missing my point). I could use any number of examples to make my point but instead I'll use this one because it's probably most illustrative. On April 29th, you posted the following in this thread (post #28,715 on page 718):


The BBC reports:

" Russian forces will collapse in weeks, predicts military expert

Russia's assault on Donbas has "sort of fizzled" and the battle for the region will be over in two to four weeks, says military expert Dr Mike Martin.

The war studies visiting fellow at King's College London says: "Basically the Russians are gonna run out of troops, and the Ukrainians are going to counterattack."

The Russians have squandered their one chance to take the region, he believes.

"They pulled all of these mauled units out of Kyiv, and then tried to reconstitute them for combat in the east," he explains.

But they were "bruised and damaged" by the battle for the Ukrainian capital and Russia failed to build them up and "do some bold manoeuvre".

And Martin says there has been a "major strategic shift" in the war, with the UK declaring its aim is to clear Russian forces from Ukraine, including Crimea.

He adds that UK Foreign Secretary Liz Truss is "wrong", however, to say this would take 10 years, insisting: "Russian forces will collapse before that, and we’ll see a coup."

And with the US announcing US$33bn (£26bn) of funding for Ukraine, "that is an extremely clear signal of intent", says Martin.

It also means Nato and the US have decided Vladimir Putin is bluffing about using nuclear weapons if Nato up the ante, he adds."



"Military expert Dr Mike Martin" is quite the celebrity over here and has been for a while, his absolutely ridiculous claims on a variety of geopolitical issues are often used as an example of who the Western media looks to for their "expert analysis" (Martin's commentary on Afghanistan back in the day was also a hoot). In that passage that you've quoted, Martin claimed the battle for the Donbas would be over in 2 to 4 weeks because Russia would run out of troops (a spectacularly stupid claim to anyone who knows even the remotest thing about this war), yet sure enough, there was the BBC parroting this idiot's take. And now here we are a month later and Donbas is probably a few weeks away from falling to Russia.

Now the point I'm making is not, on this occasion, to raise an eyebrow at you and your sources, because here you're quoting the BBC. But here's the thing: if "Russian state propaganda" were not banned in the West (as it now is - I guess it was felt you're all too incapable of deciding for yourselves what's accurate in your free speech democracies), you would have known that what Martin said was absolutely preposterous, because you'd have been able to watch a discussion programme on RT giving an overview of this clown's previous gibberish 'predictions'. Likewise, if "Russian state propaganda" were not banned in the West you would have seen Putin holding a meeting with Mishustin and Matvienko on the very day your famous unnamed "Western officials" claimed Putin was having cancer surgery. If "Russian state propaganda" were not banned in the West you would be hearing about the progress of the war not solely through the words of pro-Ukrainian sources, but also pro-Russian sources (for whom you are welcome to have contempt but you shouldn't allow your contempt to cut you off from information). If "Russian state propaganda" were not blocked in the West you would be able to hear the far less optimistic evaluation of the war from Ukrainian generals and commanders, instead of Zelenskiy, whose job is to do all he can to maintain the morale of Ukrainian soldiers and people, and that often involves massively exaggerating Russian losses and Ukrainian gains. Finally - you (Glaston) have posted many, many times about the numbers of alleged Russian losses in this war. You have not once posted about Ukrainian losses. So I am going to set you a challenge. In your next post, please give what you think is an accurate number of Ukrainian losses to date. You might need to use a VPN to access banned "Russian state propaganda" which cites actual Ukrainian commanders on the ground. The same guys who (one example from countless), while Zelenskiy was insisting that only 8 soldiers died in a recent Russian strike in Desna, were saying "What the hell are you talking about, it was 87", which days later Zelenskiy finally admitted:

https://news.yahoo.com/zelensky-says-87-killed-may-155221449.html

Yes, Russia has sustained huge losses. So has Ukraine. And what's key is this: Russia's capacity to sustain losses and keep going is several orders of magnitude higher than Ukraine's (as acknowledged by Luhansk govenor Serhiy Haidai), hence Kirby saying time is not on their side now.

I'll sum up. I know that Russian TV promulgates propaganda. More importantly, I am able to recognise it when I hear it, because as best I can I try to verify information. Unlike you, I have full access to both sides of the information war. And my overall point is: the West has propaganda too, and I'm not convinced some of you here a) realise that or b) recognise propaganda when you hear it. If you go to any other thread on this forum's political page you'll find wall to wall complaining about how the government are a bunch of self-serving liars, yet almost without fail whenever the issue is foreign policy people trust the integrity and honesty of the folk who have lied to them time after time.

I am not suggesting anyone should accept anything I'm writing here, I know that the vast majority won't and it's not even my aim, but all I'm saying is that if you were to remove all the posts in this thread that have been proven to be wrong, 777 pages would instantly become about 50 pages. This is simply a fact. And for pointing that out you're saying I'm a victim of Russian propaganda. Several excellent posters have been pretty much hounded out of this thread (most notably that Michael Goodman guy), with people even calling for them to be banned for daring to propose something other than the accepted orthodoxy. You're free to continue to do that, I don't doubt it feels good, but so long as it continues, the next 777 pages of this thread will also contain overwhelming amounts of nonsense. I know that you (Glaston) and almost everyone else here is absolutely convinced that it will not happen, but do this thought experiment with me: imagine for a moment that what I've written here comes to pass. That Putin does in fact win this war, and in the manner I've described. Then will you doubt the "experts" who've been telling you for the last 3 months that the Russian army will collapse and Ukrainian victory will certainly happen? Or - as we saw after the "experts" were proven wrong on Brexit and the election of Trump - will you bend over backwards to explain away why they were 'justifiably mistaken'...yet again?

With that I'll check out of the thread because for the last week a bunch of "tolerant Westerners" have been demonstrating their commitment to the Western value of free speech and inclusivity of opinion by calling me names via PM. I haven't and won't respond to any of them, because I'm not a child, but that kind of thing is not why I came to this thread. I wanted to give another side of the issue. For that I'm being sent abusive PMs. Fair enough, I've said my piece for anyone who wants to read it. All I ask is that if and when what I've written comes to pass, remember this exchange, remember how adamant you were that I was spouting nothing but absurd Russian propaganda, and learn from it. Peace.
Why are you not sharing how Russia circumvents sanctions on military contracts with us/authorities in the west? It would help to defeat the evil, so far you seem to be very content with a fascist regime.
 

Organic Potatoes

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Tell me you are Russian without telling me you are Russian: rehashing and getting overly excited about Azov, without any sense of self-awareness about the complete fascist takeover happening in the Motherland.
The easiest way to spot a Putin apologist is by how quickly they bring up Azov.
 

Frosty

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Yes I can hear you Clem Fandango!

Lj82

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Water Melon shares that he lost around 30 people and his wife's cousin's 6yo daughter was raped and burnt along with her grandmother and this is what he chooses to respond with...



Because defending these absolute cretins from being called orcs is more important than showing a bit of empathy and compassion for a fellow poster sharing horrific experiences.
Exactly this.
Quite a shock to see his responses to the atrocities.