Those in Munich after they sell the real estate perhaps.Oh no don't say that, a lot of Germans would be quite happy to get rid of Berlin
Russian invasion of Ukraine | Fewer tweets, more discussion
- Thread starter Wednesday at Stoke
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In the latest episode of the United Hour Podcast, Nik (@Rood) was joined by comedian Ali Woods to look back at the best and worst moments of a rollercoaster season with the annual United Hour Awards.
Has Ten Hag been sacked yet? We're not sure and we hope not, but it's looking more likely as the days pass.
Who should replace him and why is it taking so long to make a decision?
Not in a "take it to the streets" way that gets you locked up. But in all the other ways for sure.
Only kim jong un has no effective limit to his power in the face of public opinion.
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Putin would be dead within the week if he went nuclear.
I'm living on the exact opposite end of Germany and can say that most people I know here view Berlin just as an embarassing burden to the country and a total money waste
Back on topic: I do believe that DNR and LNR try to get into "real Russia" asap now to be protected as part of the Russian heartland and therefore cause a pretext for full mobilization in Russia.
But I somewhat doubt that this is really in Putin's interest right now. If he accepts them into Russia he has to defend them and I doubt that this is what he still wants to do with full force.
Is that for full mobilisation?
I think there are several reasons Putin won't use tactical nukes or any nukes.
1. Russia want to control Ukraine, making it radioactive would not help that effort.
2. What international support they have would dry up, outside of China. India would likely be very unhappy, Turkey too. US would likely put sanctions of China if they didn't stop all support.
3. The US will respond with proportional non-nuclear weapons, from ships or by plane. The only reason they're holding back is they don't want nukes in play. Once that line is crossed it could easily lead to NATO troops joining in to just vaporize every Russian target in Ukraine from the air and by sea.
4. Putin is a cold, calculating gangster, he likes wealth, he's a hedonist. He's been able to nuke the world for decades, but his violence had always been about increasing his power.
No, it’s introducing new punishment for those who were going to evade mobilization in any way.
So what's the point of these referendums? Wouldn't Putin be committing himself even more to this conflict?
Putin does seem to be backing himself into a corner here. Where will he draw the line?
His previous military big talk looks kind of silly now given the damage the UA is inflicting. Not only that his budget, and forces, are already depleted and lacking morale. To try and threaten NATO with anything would be suicide and he must know that.
His previous military big talk looks kind of silly now given the damage the UA is inflicting. Not only that his budget, and forces, are already depleted and lacking morale. To try and threaten NATO with anything would be suicide and he must know that.
1. I don't think he gives a shit about that.
2. I think would be quite strong. Even China would have to pull the plug on him.
3. Yeah, I think a likely outcome is Nato claiming the airspace over all ukraine and from there blowing up all russian targets inside the Ukraine.
4. His personal power is also tied into his vanity, which is greatly assailed by all this. It's possible that anything but continuous escalation is unacceptable to him in the face of possible failure.
A lot depends on how it is deployed. 3. is the response if it's at a military target. If he strikes at a civilian target, the US won't stop at the Ukrainian border.
@B20 I agree he'd (hopefully) be overthrown if he did try to use nukes. I don't think that means he won't try something if he suffers a complete defeat in this war, which doesn't seem that unlikely.
@The Firestarter I agree but would that stop him trying it. This is his last throw of the dice to secure more territory for Russia - it doesn't seem that unlikely that Ukraine reclaim it's full country including Crimea in the coming years, he would rather die than let that happen. If he does move to full mobilisation and stays in power, the amount of casualties is going to be so insanely high
@Beans sadly I don't think he cares about any of those points and is so secure in office there's a risk.
@The Firestarter I agree but would that stop him trying it. This is his last throw of the dice to secure more territory for Russia - it doesn't seem that unlikely that Ukraine reclaim it's full country including Crimea in the coming years, he would rather die than let that happen. If he does move to full mobilisation and stays in power, the amount of casualties is going to be so insanely high
@Beans sadly I don't think he cares about any of those points and is so secure in office there's a risk.
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Both Putin & Shoigu are expected to give a speech later tonight, according to RBC.
Best case scenario from the ones that strike me as plausible:
- Staged referendums for joining russia happens. plot twist: They all vote for joining russia!
- Ukranian forces continue making inroads into Donbas.
- Russia declare they are being invaded. Start a draft.
- Russia continue to lose in Ukraine. Only now with much higher losses.
- Popular opinion in Russia absolutely plummets. Putin's position becomes increasingly untenable even inside Russia. People fall out of windows like never before.
- Someone (possibly plural) with the means to execute such a plan figures that if you could try for hits again Lenin, Stalin, Brezhnev and Gorbachev, why should Putin be spared?
The main problem with a mobilization as I see it is, who the hell are going to lead all these troops? All officers and NCOs are already in Ukraine and Russia doesn't train reservists officers or NCOs.
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This is true, and not only who is going to lead them, who is going to arm them, get them to Ukraine, keep them supplied? If the Russians can’t supply their current army I can’t see how they can supply a larger one.
Bigger problem, who the hell is going to work in the already battered Russian economy? Transition to rationing , food stamps etc how do explain this to the people for which 99% of them don't see any bombs falling or troops invading , just a head on a screen.
It would be interesting to know how long it would take from a declaration of mobilisation to an actual increase of armed troops on the battlefield. Surely it will be a few months?
I'd agree with this. There is no way for Putin to win this at this point.
1. Do nothing and have Ukraine gradually erode Russian gains to pre-Feb levels, or possibly worse, reclaim all of Donbas and begin looking at Crirmea.
2. Launch a series of sham referendums in Kherson and other controlled areas as a pretext to justify a full mobilization. This won't work either since time is not on Putin's side and anyone mobilized (whether prisoners or ordinary Russians) won't be any better than the cannon fodder Putin has already introduced into war over the past 7 months.
3. Use tactical nukes, thermobaric weapons, and/or strike nuclear plants to create a catastrophe within Ukraine. This won't work either because it would escalate into NATO involvment inside Ukraine, which would effectively crush any Russian operations in country.
In summary: Putin is fecked and is likely going down Ceaușescu style.
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Those who are completing their conscript service this year could be available in a much shorter time. In fact they could already be moving to Ukraine right now if Putin has made the decision.
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Putin, the day before: "war with Ukraine will end as soon as possible"
Maybe I'm being naive, but this could still be posturing for a peace deal. Thing is, at this point it won't work. Too much water under the bridge, and there's a reason why Peter and the Wolf ends the way it ends.
On topic, if Russia hypotetically fully mobilizes against a country that is a EU candidate, are there any implications for the rest of EU members?
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I don't think so. While it's important for Russia internally if they call it a war or not, if they fully mobilize or not, the rest of the world sees it as a war and it won't make a difference if Russia is sending kontraktniki or conscripts into this war.Putin, the day before: "war with Ukraine will end as soon as possible"
Maybe I'm being naive, but this could still be posturing for a peace deal. Thing is, at this point it won't work. Too much water under the bridge, and there's a reason why Peter and the Wolf ends the way it ends.
On topic, if Russia hypotetically fully mobilizes against a country that is a EU candidate, are there any implications for the rest of EU members?
Time to ramp up support for Ukraine before winter kicks in. Unless you think there is a material risk of Russia dropping nukes (I don’t, unless Ukraine starts attacking Russia itself), then we are facing a paper tiger here.
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Wow
Are other sources reporting this?
that should cover some of the war reparations afterwards too.
The guy comes across as a shit Zhirinovsky impersonator.
Sphere of influence works two ways though. Ukraine wanted to be the in the grouping influenced by the US and EU, two economic superpowers and one military one. Russia overplayed their hand thinking they could stop it. In truth war came because Russia spectacularly misjudged the geopolitical realities and massively overestimated its own power.
Our Russian bros on here are about to be sent to the front lines for the motherland.
I do accept the concept that states can have there sphere of influence based on their economic or military power, that is simply a geopolitical reality. But what I don't get with Mearsheimer is why we should treat those spheres of influence as immutable? Why should the West stop at Ukraine when we included the Baltics and all other slavic states that were under Soviet influence?
People like Mearsheimer sooner or later have to realize it, just like the Russians have to as you mentioned. It's just sad that this learning process is paid for by a lot of innocent lives.