Russian invasion of Ukraine | Fewer tweets, more discussion

jackal&hyde

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Just worried for one thing: In the beginning of the war, the Chechen "warriors" were presented of being there in the thick of it all, many videos too, songs and scary looking. Not seen much since. Are they safe? Are they ok?
 

dove

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Just worried for one thing: In the beginning of the war, the Chechen "warriors" were presented of being there in the thick of it all, many videos too, songs and scary looking. Not seen much since. Are they safe? Are they ok?
They are still alive, doing their tiktoks. Here is one of the most recent ones.

 

stefan92

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IMO the situation of the Russian air force is proving to be completely dire. On paper they have x number of fighters, but in practice, the reality is most likely very bad. An air force is mega expensive to keep ready and, given the level of corruption in the Russian military, I'm fairly sure they have but a very small fraction of modern air craft combat ready; might have even lost most of that already. The Russian air force is a paper force imo.
Yes and no. Yes I agree it probably is far from having the numbers operational they should have. But nonetheless we didn't see any sorties deep into Ukrainian territory and especially we didn't see the strategic bombers (Tu-95, Tu-160) in action in this war. And we know for sure that they are operational as we have seen those active on patrols or in Syria. They definitely fear that they could lose these extremely valuable assets to Ukrainian air defense, but they could definitely decide to take that risk.
 

jackal&hyde

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They are still alive, doing their tiktoks. Here is one of the most recent ones.

Lucky Ukrainians these elite super soldiers, are still playing army soldiers instead of fighting. On tiktok, in between a model promising onlyfans to do more, there are this guys promising to be able to fight.
 

jackal&hyde

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Yes and no. Yes I agree it probably is far from having the numbers operational they should have. But nonetheless we didn't see any sorties deep into Ukrainian territory and especially we didn't see the strategic bombers (Tu-95, Tu-160) in action in this war. And we know for sure that they are operational as we have seen those active on patrols or in Syria. They definitely fear that they could lose these extremely valuable assets to Ukrainian air defense, but they could definitely decide to take that risk.
I agree but for what reason? They have bombers yes; but they can not give them air supremacy to operate. Bombers are only good if you can protect them otherwise the targets they hit are less valuable then the aircraft themselves. Russia does not have air supremacy over Ukraine while the latter has 0 NATO aircraft. It is an insane situation that can only be explained in 2 ways: the Russian air force is extremely badly managed and it's mostly incapable of operations (my most likely scenario); the second possibility is that NATO is flying F35 and F22 stealth fighters that are killing the Russian air force (very unlikely).
 

TMDaines

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What the feck are they going to do with all those men? What are they going to equip and feed them with?
Sheer numbers to overwhelm Ukraine I guess. Always remember that the Nazis did what they did in the Holocaust because just shooting and burying that number of bodies was a near impossible task. Is Russia going to try and overwhelm Ukraine with sheer numbers?
 

stefan92

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I agree but for what reason? They have bombers yes; but they can not give them air supremacy to operate. Bombers are only good if you can protect them otherwise the targets they hit are less valuable then the aircraft themselves. Russia does not have air supremacy over Ukraine while the latter has 0 NATO aircraft. It is an insane situation that can only be explained in 2 ways: the Russian air force is extremely badly managed and it's mostly incapable of operations (my most likely scenario); the second possibility is that NATO is flying F35 and F22 stealth fighters that are killing the Russian air force (very unlikely).
For what reason does Putin send all these new recruits to the front? It's a similar waste. But I agree it wouldn't make much sense to use those bombers umder the current circumstances.
 

jackal&hyde

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A bit unfair though. This guy was fighting like a better soldier then Leonidas for a long time with little food and water. He was probably in a similar state while fighting in the last days. No doubt the Russians added to his bad state though.

I imagine not many Russian recruits will have this level of discipline and fighting ethos.
 

jackal&hyde

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For what reason does Putin send all these new recruits to the front? It's a similar waste. But I agree it wouldn't make much sense to use those bombers umder the current circumstances.
I agree with you 100%. Just want to add that a difference is that it takes years to train a fighter or bomber pilot while an infantry recruit, it takes a week or 2 by russian standards. There is also the cost of the air craft and the cost that would take to make a new one. Pilots are the most expensive soldiers as far as I know.
 

stefan92

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I agree with you 100%. Just want to add that a difference is that it takes years to train a fighter or bomber pilot while an infantry recruit, it takes a week or 2 by russian standards. There is also the cost of the air craft and the cost that would take to make a new one. Pilots are the most expensive soldiers as far as I know.
I guess financially for Russia the loss of a single Tu-160 would be comparable to thousands of dead infantery soldiers.
 

Raoul

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At around 0:50 does he say that they will receive 2 weeks of training before staffing the units?
Sounds like the captions may be off ? Should probably be three days (of administrative in-processing) here, followed by two weeks of training prior to deployment into the theatre of battle.
 
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jackal&hyde

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I guess financially for Russia the loss of a single Tu-160 would be comparable to thousands of dead infantery soldiers.
Yeah. Better to send hundreds or more young men with a gun then risk a multi million euro trained pilot with a super expensive machine. They know either will result in nothing, but it's the less expensive deal to kill lots of citizens then expensive equipment. This is Russia.
 

MTF

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Ukraine is going to need a lot more ammo, of all kinds. I hope the US and others can step up deliveries.
 

the hea

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Sounds like the captions may be off ? Should probably be three days (of administrative in-processing) here, then followed up by two weeks of training prior to deployment into the theatre of battle.
Thats what i thought. Only providing them with 2 weeks of training indicates that the Russian manpower shortage must be very critical.
 

harms

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At around 0:50 does he say that they will receive 2 weeks of training before staffing the units?
Sounds like the captions may be off ? Should probably be three days (of administrative in-processing) here, then followed up by two weeks of training prior to deployment into the theatre of battle.
Yeah. It sounds like he says “do podgotovki”, which would be (2 weeks) “until training”, but in reality he says “dop podgotovki” with an almost-silent “p”. “Dop” would be short for “dopolnitelnoy”, which means “additional”.
 

Zen86

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Potentially scary numbers on paper, but it’ll be catastrophic losses for Russia whether it turns the tide or not. I think the next few months will show that sheer numbers can’t overcome strong organisation, determination, and modern weaponry.
 

Raoul

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Russian drones hitting Odesa city center (Deribasovskaya St). You can see the Odesa Opera House at 7 sec.

 

RedDevilQuebecois

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Damn. I remember seeing photos of very skinny Allied prisoners who were at the hands of Nazis or the Imperial Japanese Army in history books, but those were usually after at least a year in captivity. What the heck are they doing to POWs in Russia after 7 months or less?

Yeah. Better to send hundreds or more young men with a gun then risk a multi million euro trained pilot with a super expensive machine. They know either will result in nothing, but it's the less expensive deal to kill lots of citizens then expensive equipment. This is Russia.
Weird line of thought and yet unsurprising in the Russian context. Considering their age and their archaic design, I thought more Tu-95s would have been deployed after 7 months.
 

stefan92

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Damn. I remember seeing photos of very skinny Allied prisoners who were at the hands of Nazis or the Imperial Japanese Army in history books, but those were usually after at least a year in captivity. What the heck are they doing to POWs in Russia after 7 months or less?



Weird line of thought and yet unsurprising in the Russian context. Considering their age and their archaic design, I thought more Tu-95s would have been deployed after 7 months.
They might be olld, but they are part of the nuclear triad and are needed in that role. If it appears that Russia can't fight a nuclear war, they are in trouble.
 

MTF

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They might be olld, but they are part of the nuclear triad and are needed in that role. If it appears that Russia can't fight a nuclear war, they are in trouble.
It's all hypothetical and kind of moot (because outcome is still largely similar), but I think in a case of a large nuclear exchange not a single Russian bomber would survive to deliver its payload to Western Europe or North America. I think virtually all Russian hits would be from their ground-based missiles. Technologically and operationally they just seem to be so far behind NATO when it comes to anything in the air or at sea.
 

stefan92

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It's all hypothetical and kind of moot (because outcome is still largely similar), but I think in a case of a large nuclear exchange not a single Russian bomber would survive to deliver its payload to Western Europe or North America. I think virtually all Russian hits would be from their ground-based missiles. Technologically and operationally they just seem to be so far behind NATO when it comes to anything in the air or at sea.
They are first strike weapons and while they likely would be destroyed, this is a game of numbers and probabilities. Fire enough dumb missiles and some will hit.
 

dove

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I'd agree with this. Brain drain is a "silent" weapon.

Dangerous game when you cannot be sure whether they leave because they are against the war/Putin, or simply because they don't want to go to war themselves but are fine with everything else.