Russian invasion of Ukraine | Fewer tweets, more discussion

[Siorac]

Tweet

— Twitter API (@user) date

Oh no.

Anyway.

 

[the hea]

Tweet

— Twitter API (@user) date

 

[Real Name]

Tweet

— Twitter API (@user) date

Ups.

 

[Gehrman]

Tweet

— Twitter API (@user) date

Hard to feel Ukraine isn't entitled to strike within proper Russia by now. Only reason not to is it might be counter productive.

 

[Semper Fudge]

Hard to feel Ukraine isn't entitled to strike within proper Russia by now. Only reason not to is it might be counter productive.

They have struck within Russia.

 

[JuriM]

Hard to feel Ukraine isn't entitled to strike within proper Russia by now. Only reason not to is it might be counter productive.

They took out a lot their bases at Belgorod, Crimea*, Etc. Thing is just for a sake of ot they won't waste a single missile, only hitting pre scouted targets which are relevant in terms of their defence.

 

[The Firestarter]

Hard to feel Ukraine isn't entitled to strike within proper Russia by now. Only reason not to is it might be counter productive.

Even since day 1 they hit Belgorod. They only tend to hit military targets or strategic infrastructure (bridges) .

 

[ShoePolish]

Bakhmut may fall to the Russians though and it is their current offensive but who knows what they will do next.

I think they may still have some capacity to do another major offensive somewhere.

By all accounts, there is not much of Bakhmut left. If those sort of gains are what a major russian offensive gets you now, they truly are fecked.

 

[Rajma]

Russian mobiks undergo their 2 days long training with purpose:

Tweet

— Twitter API (@user) date

 

[The United]

By all accounts, there is not much of Bakhmut left. If those sort of gains are what a major russian offensive gets you now, they truly are fecked.

I'm more concerned that Russians still have capacity to capture heavily fortified places.

It will pave the way to access inner areas and hit the Ukrainian forces from behind. Whether they have a logistics mean to do it, who knows. But they will gather everything they can and do a major offensive somewhere at some point, I think.

 

[ShoePolish]

I'm more concerned that Russians still have capacity to capture heavily fortified places.

It will pave the way to access inner areas and hit the Ukrainian forces from behind. Whether they have a logistics mean to do it, who knows. But they will gather everything they can and do a major offensive somewhere at some point, I think.

They had last 2 months to gather large forces, dig in and defend Kherson, and they are unable to do that, and it's easier to defend than it is to attack.
Unless russian Jesus comes down to aid them, they are not capturing anything of note any time soon.

 

[The United]

They had last 2 months to gather large forces, dig in and defend Kherson, and they are unable to do that, and it's easier to defend than it is to attack.
Unless russian Jesus comes down to aid them, they are not capturing anything of note any time soon.

I do hope that you are right. I just think that people who we listen to are too optimistic about how weak the Russian army is right now. I am not that optimistic.

 

[VorZakone]

I do hope that you are right. I just think that people who we listen to are too optimistic about how weak the Russian army is right now. I am not that optimistic.

Yeah, obviously the Russians aren't knocked out yet and this war may take a long while to end. Ukraine still has to resort to trench warfare here and there. They have firepower but not the kind of firepower that enables them to blow away the Russians and suffer limited ground casualties.

However, it does seem that the initiative has shifted to the Ukrainians and Russia has to react mostly.

 

[ShoePolish]

I do hope that you are right. I just think that people who we listen to are too optimistic about how weak the Russian army is right now. I am not that optimistic.

The thing with modern warfare is that everything is seen and anticipated well in advance due to modern reconnaisance elements, so you will not have an unexpected charge from a cavalry coming down the flank. It will take a long time to build up forces and will be well anticipated.
Russian army is not weak, but they are definetly past their peak attacking power, with all the personel and material they have lost, and unless they change drastically and can finally accept strategic losses, to not lose the war of attrition, they are going to be on the backfoot.
They have gone as far as they can, and bar ukrainian strategic fails, are not going to get any further, but in their mind, it's unacceptable to even be stopped by ukrainian army, let alone have no advances, so they can't settle for what they have and keep throwing people at failed advances.

 

[stefan92]

I'm more concerned that Russians still have capacity to capture heavily fortified places.

It will pave the way to access inner areas and hit the Ukrainian forces from behind. Whether they have a logistics mean to do it, who knows. But they will gather everything they can and do a major offensive somewhere at some point, I think.

It won't, not any longer at least. When the attack on Bakhmut started in late spring, it was part of a pincer movement to encircle Ukrainian troops in Donbas. This was the southern attack and they are still attacking the first obstacle half a year later. Meanwhile the complete northern part of that pincing movement was totally obliterated by Ukraine in the meantime. That's why Bakhmut has become quite irrelevant by now, it doesn't really hurt Ukraine to lose the City area and it doesn't help Russia much as now all roads lead to Ukrainian controlled territory. So no, it won't pave the way. Ukraine doesn't really lose anything allowing Russia to take the ruins, but it can cynically optimize their loss ratio there by slowly retreating and making Russia pay for every meter.

 

[VorZakone]

Communications intercepts reveal that Russian morale is breaking in some parts of the line in Kherson. But not on this flank of the oblast where Max and his men are operating. “They are a very good squad. In many places they are ready to surrender but over here they are ready to fight until the end,” he said.

Tweet

— Twitter API (@user) date

 

[The United]

It won't, not any longer at least. When the attack on Bakhmut started in late spring, it was part of a pincer movement to encircle Ukrainian troops in Donbas. This was the southern attack and they are still attacking the first obstacle half a year later. Meanwhile the complete northern part of that pincing movement was totally obliterated by Ukraine in the meantime. That's why Bakhmut has become quite irrelevant by now, it doesn't really hurt Ukraine to lose the City area and it doesn't help Russia much as now all roads lead to Ukrainian controlled territory. So no, it won't pave the way. Ukraine doesn't really lose anything allowing Russia to take the ruins, but it can cynically optimize their loss ratio there by slowly retreating and making Russia pay for every meter.

I'm not sure if it's completely irrelevant now because the Ukrainians have lost a lot of men defending it (according to some Twitter accounts). There might still be a decent enough reason why both sides are going hard at it there.

 

[The United]

The thing with modern warfare is that everything is seen and anticipated well in advance due to modern reconnaisance elements, so you will not have an unexpected charge from a cavalry coming down the flank. It will take a long time to build up forces and will be well anticipated.
Russian army is not weak, but they are definetly past their peak attacking power, with all the personel and material they have lost, and unless they change drastically and can finally accept strategic losses, to not lose the war of attrition, they are going to be on the backfoot.
They have gone as far as they can, and bar ukrainian strategic fails, are not going to get any further, but in their mind, it's unacceptable to even be stopped by ukrainian army, let alone have no advances, so they can't settle for what they have and keep throwing people at failed advances.

Russian army has become a bit of joke here, of course. But the bold part though, how many people had thought or seen UKR forces would do that North Eastern's counterattack? Armies can still surprise people even with advanced reconnaissance elements. The Russians are indeed building up forces at this moment, hence, I am anticipating there will be some big movement in the coming months from them. Whether they can get what they want is a different thing altogether, of course.

 

[JuriM]

I'm not sure if it's completely irrelevant now because the Ukrainians have lost a lot of men defending it (according to some Twitter accounts). There might still be a decent enough reason why both sides are going hard at it there.

The loss ratio is still 1 to 6.5 so, despite Ukrainian forces obviously having losses, theirs has never been that significant.

 

[The United]

The loss ratio is still 1 to 6.5 so, despite Ukrainian forces obviously having losses, theirs has never been that significant.

Not that I don't trust you. Where do you get those numbers? What I want to know is the total number of casualties from both sides and might have an idea if UKR forces are trying hard to defend it.

The point is that UKR forces are not afraid to retreat and regroup and they don't let their men die for places that are not strategically important.

 

[Simbo]

Walter can get carried away sometimes but he's got sources on the ground.

Tweet

— Twitter API (@user) date

 

[stefan92]

Not that I don't trust you. Where do you get those numbers? What I want to know is the total number of casualties from both sides and might have an idea if UKR forces are trying hard to defend it.

The point is that UKR forces are not afraid to retreat and regroup and they don't let their men die for places that are not strategically important.

Bakhmut isn't important for Ukraine, but it's strategically important to keep the Wagner forces busy somewhere. Had those been moved to strengthen the defences around Kharkiv the offensive would have been much more difficult.

Loss ratios always favour the defender so Ukraine chose to defend against Wagner in Bakhmut instead of leaving it and having to attack Wagner elsewhere.

 

[The United]

Bakhmut isn't important for Ukraine, but it's strategically important to keep the Wagner forces busy somewhere. Had those been moved to strengthen the defences around Kharkiv the offensive would have been much more difficult.

Loss ratios always favour the defender so Ukraine chose to defend against Wagner in Bakhmut instead of leaving it and having to attack Wagner elsewhere.

A few have said though that it is a key logistical hub for both sides to maintain their southern front. But it looks like every city and village has become a key hub nowadays anyway if we are to believe people online.

Keeping Wagner may be the main reason here and which is an important objective for UKR. Wagner group can always turn south from there after capturing it and hit UKR forces from behind at Kherson front? It may be the reason why UKR are defending it like they did in Mariupol.

All considering, the place seems to be a very important place for UKR to hold as long as they can.

 

[VorZakone]

Tweet

— Twitter API (@user) date

 

[Frosty]

Tweet

— Twitter API (@user) date

 

[JuriM]

Tweet

— Twitter API (@user) date

Yea you can see some special operations getting more active and their activists trying to get more and more attention. I don't know by head whose elections are the closest atm, but Estonia has parliamentary elections under way in spring 2023 and our Right Wingers are basically quoting Sovoljov already.

+ Things like these going on

https://www.techspot.com/news/96394...s-impact-internet-connectivity-worldwide.html

 

[The Firestarter]

Tweet

— Twitter API (@user) date

That tweet was dumb as they come. And also the UK needs more a Gus Fring character. Because he is a fantastic manager, of course.

 

[calodo2003]

Tweet

— Twitter API (@user) date

 

[dove]

Russians in disbelief by the quality of some of the equipment the Ukraine army has. Imagine bulletproof plates actually being able to stop bullets? Magic.

Tweet

— Twitter API (@user) date

Makes sense I guess when you compare to the crap they get which wouldn't stop anything more than paintballs.

Tweet

— Twitter API (@user) date

 

[TMDaines]

Given the events of a few weeks ago, I had hoped that Kherson would have been liberated by now, perhaps naively. It felt as if the momentum was really with Ukraine, now any gains are much more attritional again. Does this reflect the state of the war, or are the Ukrainians regrouping for a big push?

 

[tomaldinho1]

Given the events of a few weeks ago, I had hoped that Kherson would have been liberated by now, perhaps naively. It felt as if the momentum was really with Ukraine, now any gains are much more attritional again. Does this reflect the state of the war, or are the Ukrainians regrouping for a big push?

Hard for Ukraine to take cities where the Russians are dug in given they aren’t going to shell the city. They basically have to force them to surrender by cutting them off. It looks like Russia are going to withdraw from Kherson and blow the dam though if we believe what a few people are saying so it might not be long.

 

[TwoSheds]

Given the events of a few weeks ago, I had hoped that Kherson would have been liberated by now, perhaps naively. It felt as if the momentum was really with Ukraine, now any gains are much more attritional again. Does this reflect the state of the war, or are the Ukrainians regrouping for a big push?

With all the new cannon fodder at the Russian front it might be that they need to absorb some pressure along the line so have sent reinforcements to other priorities?

 

[VorZakone]

Tweet

— Twitter API (@user) date

 

[Simbo]

Given the events of a few weeks ago, I had hoped that Kherson would have been liberated by now, perhaps naively. It felt as if the momentum was really with Ukraine, now any gains are much more attritional again. Does this reflect the state of the war, or are the Ukrainians regrouping for a big push?

They instated an information blackout for the Kherson region a couple weeks ago as they stepped up operations so its hard to know much, though if any large gains were made I'm sure we'd know about it.

Ukraine is fighting this war very carefully and patiently. Also, the last time they convinced the world they were about the make a big push for Kherson it was a bit of a ruse, so its perhaps unwise to have too many expectations.

 

[2cents]

The speed of the Kharkiv operation has probably raised expectations to an unrealistic degree.

 

[the hea]

Tweet

— Twitter API (@user) date

 

[VorZakone]

Tweet

— Twitter API (@user) date

 

[harms]

Time for Ukraine to start bombing Russian cities. This time will come in my opinion, it's just a question of when.

They do. Not overly much (and not comparable to the Russian strikes) considering the circumstances but still.

 

[Pexbo]

Tweet

— Twitter API (@user) date

I thought at the time that was Johnson calling in a favour from a contact in Ukraine.

 

[sglowrider]

Tweet

— Twitter API (@user) date

Tbf that's always the case in war. Historically, the poor and the destitute fight under the command of noblemen or the rich.