Russian invasion of Ukraine | Fewer tweets, more discussion

harms said:
No, there's literally presidential administration — Anton Vaino, Sergey Kiriyenko etc. Aside from Kiriyenko, technically Vaino's deputy, they aren't that well-known publicly but it's a very important institution in Russian power hierarchy. Although while they were arguably the most important political institution at some point, they've been losing their influence over the past few years with Putin preferring FSB & other law enforcement agencies.
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Ok, sort of understood. Help me out a little bit, is it maybe as if a US President planned and initiated a war basically by involving just the Dept of Defense, CIA, etc., but cut out the National Security Advisor, National Security Council and his White House advisors?
 
TMDaines said:
Starting to feel as if we are on a cusp of a big refugee/fleeing crisis from Russia too, with foreign students and workers now really considering their future there:
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Russians themselves are fleeing to Armenia, Georgia, Israel etc. — anywhere where they can, really — in notable numbers. Although with the lack of options in terms of transport & the ridiculous cost of those few tickets that are available it's mostly well established people from Moscow & St. Petersburg (the same people that make up the core of the opposition to Putin's regime and are feeling justifiably threatened by the ever-increasing level of political oppression).
 
MTF said:
Ok, sort of understood. Help me out a little bit, is it maybe as if a US President planned and initiated a war basically by involving just the Dept of Defense, CIA, etc., but cut out the National Security Advisor, National Security Council and his White House advisors?
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Yeah, pretty much. Although it looks like even the "DOD" & "CIA" weren't in on all of the details.
 
BlackShark_80 said:


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The UK is just a joke. The EU is lining up more sanctions on energy etc, has already blacklisted people like Mikhail Friedman, seized yachts, and the UK as per usual does nothing of good. I swear this country just slowly dies more and more every year especially whenever it's run by the conservatives.
 
Water Melon said:
With all the assests that oligarchs have in UK and intelligence data at the disposal of the government, they still can not build up cases against them? Maybe they do not really want to?
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No idea if true though one reply (and the original tweet itself to an extent) suggests that law changes a few years back meant it was/is harder to make a case for sanctions… presumably on the basis that even people who probably should be sanctioned, deserve a thorough process/case made against them as all other people who break a law do. Also that if get it wrong, the relevant person can sue.

(* not saying it is or I agree with it)

 
fergieisold said:
What's the deal with visas? Shouldn't we very quickly just be issuing them to Ukranians?
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I think they're terrified that if they let the white refugees in they'll then have to let everyone else in too.

Too much of their politics is denying refugees need to come here so it's a question of if they're willing to trade that to do the right thing.
 
MuFc_1992 said:
what does it say?
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There’s a whole Twitter thread. Genuinely batshit stuff most of it, but also like a lot of propaganda it is built of kerns of truth twisted and manipulated.






A second thread with conclusions:

 
What's happening is essentially the struggle of freedom against control and oppression. The major part of global history since the year dot has always boiled down down to this.

The only security threat that a free and independent Ukraine poses is the threat posed to Putin's gangster-state regime by the existence - and example to the Russian people - of democracy and freedom.

The above also applies to NATO - a defensive alliance of free and democratic nations. The idea that NATO would ever invade Russia is laughable, all the more so given Russia's nuclear weapons.

Putin fears the spread of freedom and democracy into Russia. Everything else is lies from a thug dictator who, even a week ago, denied that Russian troops would invade Ukraine (beyond being already in Crimea).

There are credible people (e.g. from Bellingcat) who say that Russia cannot finance this large-scale military invasion for more than another 2 - 3 weeks.

I therefore think, if Kiev is still in Ukranian hands after this time, that the risk of Putin using nuclear weapons is, unfortunately, significantly higher than most people suppose. I believe that he might well use a tactical nuke in Ukraine if that becomes his only way of avoiding military humiliation.

What NATO's response would be, if he does use a tactical nuke, is anyone's guess.

Finally, please note: I'm here to discuss the Ukrainian situation - nothing else.
 
harms said:
Who is that? Someone from Ireland I assume?
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Gerry Adams. You can Google him as there’s quite a lot there, though what you read will depend on that writer’s beliefs probably (if they like him, it’ll be good… if they don’t, it’ll be bad).

Are you seeing any signs of sanctions kicking in where you are? UK media suggests hurting Russia but never know if that’s the case or how reported.
 
Just seen reports here in Germany suggesting that China might have known full well what was going to happen and may have asked Russia to wait until after the Olympics.
 
GlastonSpur said:
What's happening is essentially the struggle of freedom against control and oppression. The major part of global history since the year dot has always boiled down down to this.

The only security threat that a free and independent Ukraine poses is the threat posed to Putin's gangster-state regime by the existence - and example to the Russian people - of democracy and freedom.

The above also applies to NATO - a defensive alliance of free and democratic nations. The idea that NATO would ever invade Russia is laughable, all the more so given Russia's nuclear weapons.

Putin fears the spread of freedom and democracy into Russia. Everything else is lies from a thug dictator who, even a week ago, denied that Russian troops would invade Ukraine (beyond being already in Crimea).

There are credible people (e.g. from Bellingcat) who say that Russia cannot finance this large-scale military invasion for more than another 2 - 3 weeks.

I therefore think, if Kiev is still in Ukranian hands after this time, that the risk of Putin using nuclear weapons is, unfortunately, significantly higher than most people suppose. I believe that he might well use a tactical nuke in Ukraine if that becomes his only way of avoiding military humiliation.

What NATO's response would be, if he does use a tactical nuke, is anyone's guess.

Finally, please note: I'm here to discuss the Ukrainian situation - nothing else.
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Bloody hell. It’s Glastonspur!! :)
 
Dans said:
Just seen reports here in Germany suggesting that China might have known full well what was going to happen and may have asked Russia to wait until after the Olympics.
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Yes, New York Times reported it too.
 
BeforeKeanetherewasRobson said:
Gerry Adams. You can Google him as there’s quite a lot there, though what you read will depend on that writer’s beliefs probably (if they like him, it’ll be good… if they don’t, it’ll be bad).

Are you seeing any signs of sanctions kicking in where you are? UK media suggests hurting Russia but never know if that’s the case or how reported.
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Yeah, it's absolutely brutal. Our economy was shit in the first place but what had happened over the past few days was nothing short of catastrophic — and it's only the beginning. Since we'll obviously going to see more and more consequences in the next few weeks & months. By all projections if nothing changes we're going to drop back to the early 90's level — and, considering that "do you want back to the 90's" was one of Putin's most effective counter-arguments to any critique of his internal policy it'll probably cause a huge reaction... in a bit though. People need to feel long-term consequences, right now what we see can be written off by some (who don't really understand more global economical processes) as a panic reaction.
 
harms said:
Yeah, it's absolutely brutal. Our economy was shit in the first place but what had happened over the past few days was nothing short of catastrophic — and it's only the beginning. Since we'll obviously going to see more and more consequences in the next few weeks & months. By all projections if nothing changes we're going to drop back to the early 90's level — and, considering that "do you want back to the 90's" was one of Putin's most effective counter-arguments to any critique of his internal policy it'll probably cause a huge reaction... in a bit though. People need to feel long-term consequences, right now what we see can be written off by some (who don't really understand more global economical processes) as a panic reaction.
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I’m sorry you’re having to go through this :(
 
Dans said:
Just seen reports here in Germany suggesting that China might have known full well what was going to happen and may have asked Russia to wait until after the Olympics.
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Remember when people thought China would save the day?
 
GlastonSpur said:
What's happening is essentially the struggle of freedom against control and oppression. The major part of global history since the year dot has always boiled down down to this.

The only security threat that a free and independent Ukraine poses is the threat posed to Putin's gangster-state regime by the existence - and example to the Russian people - of democracy and freedom.

The above also applies to NATO - a defensive alliance of free and democratic nations. The idea that NATO would ever invade Russia is laughable, all the more so given Russia's nuclear weapons.

Putin fears the spread of freedom and democracy into Russia. Everything else is lies from a thug dictator who, even a week ago, denied that Russian troops would invade Ukraine (beyond being already in Crimea).

There are credible people (e.g. from Bellingcat) who say that Russia cannot finance this large-scale military invasion for more than another 2 - 3 weeks.

I therefore think, if Kiev is still in Ukranian hands after this time, that the risk of Putin using nuclear weapons is, unfortunately, significantly higher than most people suppose. I believe that he might well use a tactical nuke in Ukraine if that becomes his only way of avoiding military humiliation.

What NATO's response would be, if he does use a tactical nuke, is anyone's guess.

Finally, please note: I'm here to discuss the Ukrainian situation - nothing else.
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Is your return because India abstained from the vote yesterday?
 
harms said:
Yeah, it's absolutely brutal. Our economy was shit in the first place but what had happened over the past few days was nothing short of catastrophic — and it's only the beginning. Since we'll obviously going to see more and more consequences in the next few weeks & months. By all projections if nothing changes we're going to drop back to the early 90's level — and, considering that "do you want back to the 90's" was one of Putin's most effective counter-arguments to any critique of his internal policy it'll probably cause a huge reaction... in a bit though. People need to feel long-term consequences, right now what we see can be written off by some (who don't really understand more global economical processes) as a panic reaction.
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Does the Swift ban mean that it will be impossible for Russian residents to receive any money from abroad?

If so, that's remote workers fecked.
 
GlastonSpur said:
What's happening is essentially the struggle of freedom against control and oppression. The major part of global history since the year dot has always boiled down down to this.

The only security threat that a free and independent Ukraine poses is the threat posed to Putin's gangster-state regime by the existence - and example to the Russian people - of democracy and freedom.

The above also applies to NATO - a defensive alliance of free and democratic nations. The idea that NATO would ever invade Russia is laughable, all the more so given Russia's nuclear weapons.

Putin fears the spread of freedom and democracy into Russia. Everything else is lies from a thug dictator who, even a week ago, denied that Russian troops would invade Ukraine (beyond being already in Crimea).

There are credible people (e.g. from Bellingcat) who say that Russia cannot finance this large-scale military invasion for more than another 2 - 3 weeks.

I therefore think, if Kiev is still in Ukranian hands after this time, that the risk of Putin using nuclear weapons is, unfortunately, significantly higher than most people suppose. I believe that he might well use a tactical nuke in Ukraine if that becomes his only way of avoiding military humiliation.

What NATO's response would be, if he does use a tactical nuke, is anyone's guess.

Finally, please note: I'm here to discuss the Ukrainian situation - nothing else.
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He’s back!!!
 
harms said:
Yeah, it's absolutely brutal. Our economy was shit in the first place but what had happened over the past few days was nothing short of catastrophic — and it's only the beginning. Since we'll obviously going to see more and more consequences in the next few weeks & months. By all projections if nothing changes we're going to drop back to the early 90's level — and, considering that "do you want back to the 90's" was one of Putin's most effective counter-arguments to any critique of his internal policy it'll probably cause a huge reaction... in a bit though. People need to feel long-term consequences, right now what we see can be written off by some (who don't really understand more global economical processes) as a panic reaction.
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I vaguely remember those days. That means bread lines etc?
 
GlastonSpur said:
What's happening is essentially the struggle of freedom against control and oppression. The major part of global history since the year dot has always boiled down down to this.

The only security threat that a free and independent Ukraine poses is the threat posed to Putin's gangster-state regime by the existence - and example to the Russian people - of democracy and freedom.

The above also applies to NATO - a defensive alliance of free and democratic nations. The idea that NATO would ever invade Russia is laughable, all the more so given Russia's nuclear weapons.

Putin fears the spread of freedom and democracy into Russia. Everything else is lies from a thug dictator who, even a week ago, denied that Russian troops would invade Ukraine (beyond being already in Crimea).

There are credible people (e.g. from Bellingcat) who say that Russia cannot finance this large-scale military invasion for more than another 2 - 3 weeks.

I therefore think, if Kiev is still in Ukranian hands after this time, that the risk of Putin using nuclear weapons is, unfortunately, significantly higher than most people suppose. I believe that he might well use a tactical nuke in Ukraine if that becomes his only way of avoiding military humiliation.

What NATO's response would be, if he does use a tactical nuke, is anyone's guess.

Finally, please note: I'm here to discuss the Ukrainian situation - nothing else.
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Where on Earth have you been?!?! You can’t do this to us.
 
GlastonSpur said:
What's happening is essentially the struggle of freedom against control and oppression. The major part of global history since the year dot has always boiled down down to this.

The only security threat that a free and independent Ukraine poses is the threat posed to Putin's gangster-state regime by the existence - and example to the Russian people - of democracy and freedom.

The above also applies to NATO - a defensive alliance of free and democratic nations. The idea that NATO would ever invade Russia is laughable, all the more so given Russia's nuclear weapons.

Putin fears the spread of freedom and democracy into Russia. Everything else is lies from a thug dictator who, even a week ago, denied that Russian troops would invade Ukraine (beyond being already in Crimea).

There are credible people (e.g. from Bellingcat) who say that Russia cannot finance this large-scale military invasion for more than another 2 - 3 weeks.

I therefore think, if Kiev is still in Ukranian hands after this time, that the risk of Putin using nuclear weapons is, unfortunately, significantly higher than most people suppose. I believe that he might well use a tactical nuke in Ukraine if that becomes his only way of avoiding military humiliation.

What NATO's response would be, if he does use a tactical nuke, is anyone's guess.

Finally, please note: I'm here to discuss the Ukrainian situation - nothing else.
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Good post.
 
Hound Dog said:
Does the Swift ban mean that it will be impossible for Russian residents to receive any money from abroad?

If so, that's remote workers fecked.
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I'm not entirely sure to be honest, I think it's still possible but way more complicated. Putin has already restricted Russian residents from opening foreign bank accounts, restricted the amount of cash that you can take abroad to $10k etc. and it's only the beginning.

Classical Mechanic said:
I vaguely remember those days. That means bread lines etc?
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Yeah. We're not there yet, obviously, we're falling from a relatively high perch (compared to the 90's), but I would even expect food shortages at some point if all continues like this. Not in Moscow probably, but in the regions. Our agriculture is very reliant on foreign seeds, for example, we buy most of our wheat abroad etc.
 
TheReligion said:
I’m sorry you’re having to go through this :(
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If it all leads to Putin finally fecking off (and, ideally, a regime change, not a continuation of the same thing with a different face), I'll take that. I'd mention Ukraine as well but I don't think that those sanctions will change his policy in the next few weeks, sadly, he probably would've started to slow down otherwise (ideologically as well on the ground), but he only escalates everything more and more.
 
GlastonSpur said:
What's happening is essentially the struggle of freedom against control and oppression. The major part of global history since the year dot has always boiled down down to this.

The only security threat that a free and independent Ukraine poses is the threat posed to Putin's gangster-state regime by the existence - and example to the Russian people - of democracy and freedom.

The above also applies to NATO - a defensive alliance of free and democratic nations. The idea that NATO would ever invade Russia is laughable, all the more so given Russia's nuclear weapons.

Putin fears the spread of freedom and democracy into Russia. Everything else is lies from a thug dictator who, even a week ago, denied that Russian troops would invade Ukraine (beyond being already in Crimea).

There are credible people (e.g. from Bellingcat) who say that Russia cannot finance this large-scale military invasion for more than another 2 - 3 weeks.

I therefore think, if Kiev is still in Ukranian hands after this time, that the risk of Putin using nuclear weapons is, unfortunately, significantly higher than most people suppose. I believe that he might well use a tactical nuke in Ukraine if that becomes his only way of avoiding military humiliation.

What NATO's response would be, if he does use a tactical nuke, is anyone's guess.

Finally, please note: I'm here to discuss the Ukrainian situation - nothing else.
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Having 2-3 weeks of funds available may be a bit misleading since it doesn't factor in the impact of the sanctions (which can't be accurately measured yet). Even if he were to get desperate and attempt to use much more destructive weapons to expedite gaining control of Kyiv, it still wouldn't help his financial situation, nor would it help Russia's economy being plunged into a deep depression. He can't hold on to power much longer under these circumstances and NATO/EU leaders know it.
 
Mihai said:
“The main body of the large Russian column advancing on Kyiv remains over 30km from the centre of the city having been delayed by staunch Ukrainian resistance, mechanical breakdown and congestion. The column has made little discernible progress in over three days.” according the the Ukrainian MOD. So, it's fair to assume that there are some sort of counter-attack measures to delay the convoy.
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It's hovering around freezing in Ukraine, I appreciate Russians know cold well, but it's still pretty miserable if sleeping outdoors on an ongoing basis not knowing when you'll be moving next.

I assume they're sleeping in the vehicles, but I doubt they can just keep the vehicles running for heat as I expect they need to conserve fuel.
 
harms said:
If it all leads to Putin finally fecking off (and, ideally, a regime change, not a continuation of the same thing with a different face), I'll take that. I'd mention Ukraine as well but I don't think that those sanctions will change his policy in the next few weeks, sadly, he probably would've started to slow down otherwise (ideologically as well on the ground), but he only escalates everything more and more.
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The whole situation is awful and divisive.

Id love to visit Russia one day and there’s no reason why we can’t all be more aligned without the political narrative and agenda pushing resentment.
 
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