SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)

[golden_blunder]

Nobody would need to wear masks if the parents weren’t hanging around in groups in the yard. Surely the school can tell all the parents that they’re not allowed in the yard? Drop your kids at the gate and go home. Of if you’re picking them up, meet them outside the school gate. You don’t need a government directive for that.

I wish it was that easy. We’ve told them repeatedly about wearing masks but some just outright ignore requests. Another issue is our location. We are pretty much down an old country lane so you don’t have room to stop outside the gates, especially with traffic for 2 schools. You have no choice but to drive into the school grounds.
there is a church being built on neighbouring land and we are hoping to strike an agreement with them to use their extensive parking once it’s completed. Fingers crossed

 

[Wibble]

This is what I actually said.

Yes and it is utterly wrong. Quarantine works no matter the comparative rates. Obviously it is more beneficial the higher the rate of the source country and quarantining people from the few countries with no or negligible infection may be of litte or no benefit. Ideally quarantine allows internal gains to be maintained.

If you choose to accept a certain level of infection then allowing free movement between countries with similar infection rates becomes acceptable. But that wasn't the point I responded to. You said,

Quarantining people coming from countries with similar infection levels to our own country couldn’t make any difference when people staying in the UK can still go to work etc.

That isn't correct.

 

[Wibble]

I think he just stated his point a little emphatically and didn't expect someone to hold him to his precise words, when the sentiment was what mattered. Which we've all done every now and then. Otherwise I agree.

If you look at my original response that is what I expected. Rather than denial and pretending that that wasn't the point. If he didn't have so much form I'd probably have ignored it more.

 

[Pogue Mahone]

I think avoiding crowds, indoors or outdoors, is wise. And if you can’t avoid a crowd then mask up. I haven’t seen any solid evidence either. This just seems like common sense.

Speaking of outdoor crowds. The GAA haven’t exactly played a blinder in this pandemic, have they?

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[Wibble]

Rocket science it ain't.

Exactly.

 

[MikeUpNorth]

Speaking of outdoor crowds. The GAA haven’t exactly played a blinder in this pandemic, have they?

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Is that the sport which is some kind of mental mash-up of football, rugby and basketball? No wonder they can't follow simple rules that make sense.

 

[acnumber9]

Yes and it is utterly wrong. Quarantine works no matter the comparative rates. Obviously it is more beneficial the higher the rate of the source country and quarantining people from the few countries with no or negligible infection may be of litte or no benefit. Ideally quarantine allows internal gains to be maintained.

If you choose to accept a certain level of infection then allowing free movement between countries with similar infection rates becomes acceptable. But that wasn't the point I responded to. You said,



That isn't correct.

Show me the evidence it has worked in the UK then.

 

[acnumber9]

If you look at my original response that is what I expected. Rather than denial and pretending that that wasn't the point. If he didn't have so much form I'd probably have ignored it more.

When I elaborated on what I meant you accused me of changing the goal posts.

 

[Wibble]

When I elaborated on what I meant you accused me of changing the goal posts.

Because you wouldn't admit that your original statement was factually incorrect.

 

[Wibble]

Show me the evidence it has worked in the UK then.

FFS - you are asking me for evidence that quarantine has worked in the UK in the current pandemic when the UK hasn't used quarantine?

 

[acnumber9]

Because you wouldn't admit that your original statement was factually incorrect.

It’s not. And you have failed to prove otherwise. I never said it doesn’t work under any circumstances. I was clearly talking about the current circumstances in the UK. You won’t provide any evidence because you can’t. You can’t explain the difference between transferring it between Madrid and London and Manchester and London because you can’t.

If quarantining national borders alone was effective when community transmission is rife then Australia wouldn’t have had to block movement between regional borders.

If I didn’t believe it could work under any circumstances I wouldn’t have said this 40 minutes prior to the post you’re banging on about.

True. Though I’m not convinced quarantining at this stage is going to make the slightest difference. We missed that boat 7 months ago.

 

[acnumber9]

FFS - you are asking me for evidence that quarantine has worked in the UK in the current pandemic when the UK hasn't used quarantine?

But they have. Just an ineffective one, several months too late. I’ve no idea what you’re talking about.

 

[lynchie]

What do you think the chances are of picking one up at the beach, where there's loads of people but all at 6 ft away?

I haven't seen good research on this - and I know it's probably hard to come to conclusive results on this so soon.

Similar to you, I don't wear a mask when I go running. I don't see the need. I am conflicted about the beach, however, where there's loads of people.

Beaches seem likely to be pretty safe - outdoors, usually a decent breeze, people tending to keep a reasonable distance.

 

[Raoul]

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[horsechoker]

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I hate the term "game changer"

 

[DavidDeSchmikes]

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[berbatrick]

can't believe this wasn't posted yet

 

[F-Red]

UK (supposed) figures - 19 deaths, 12,594 cases.

 

[decorativeed]

When I elaborated on what I meant you accused me of changing the goal posts.

Because you wouldn't admit that your original statement was factually incorrect.

This is the sixth fecking day of this argument! Can't you two just agree to disagree and leave it at that, so we can just read the updates rather than an aimless debate dragging on into its second week?

 

[acnumber9]

This is the sixth fecking day of this argument! Can't you two just agree to disagree and leave it at that, so we can just read the updates rather than an aimless debate dragging on into its second week?

Gladly, provided he doesn’t continue to lie about what I said.

 

[prateik]

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I would take any claim coming from the Indian govt or official govt bodies with a massive spoonful of salt.

They have flat out lied about the sensitivity/specificity of the test kits they made a few months ago.

 

[prateik]

Aren't deaths supposed to trail infections by a few weeks? I genuinely wouldnt be surprised if the Indian govt was just making shit up.. that's how little faith I have in them.

 

[sullydnl]

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Varadkar striking quite a tone there given the health minister was simultaneously in a press conference saying there was no issue between government and NPHET.

Comes across as him criticising NPHET for rightly staying solely within their remit, which is public health, even after pointing out that is the limit of their remit. Literally not their job to consider social or economic implications.

With the CMO releasing a letter outright saying the government's plan won't work, it's quite a political risk. If it goes wrong then they'll come under heavy fire for ignoring expert health advice. Though if they listened to the advice they'd come under fire for that too.

 

[Berbaclass]

can't believe this wasn't posted yet

I find it scary just how accurate TTOI is sometimes. Well all of the time...

 

[Ludens the Red]

This is the sixth fecking day of this argument! Can't you two just agree to disagree and leave it at that, so we can just read the updates rather than an aimless debate dragging on into its second week?

I’ve found it really funny. @Wibble is a great thread villain. He’s surpassed @Regulus Arcturus Black effort back in the spring.

 

[Bullhitter]

Speaking of outdoor crowds. The GAA haven’t exactly played a blinder in this pandemic, have they?

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That's one household, GAA confirmed one big family.

 

[Pogue Mahone]

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Varadkar striking quite a tone there given the health minister was simultaneously in a press conference saying there was no issue between government and NPHET.

Comes across as him criticising NPHET for rightly staying solely within their remit, which is public health, even after pointing out that is the limit of their remit. Literally not their job to consider social or economic implications.

With the CMO releasing a letter outright saying the government's plan won't work, it's quite a political risk. If it goes wrong then they'll come under heavy fire for ignoring expert health advice. Though if they listened to the advice they'd come under fire for that too.

To be honest, this is how it should work. Scientists issue advice, the government takes that advice on board, considers factors outside the scope of the scientists advice (impact on economy etc) then decides on next steps. I’m always inclined to side with the medics but jumping straight to level 5 would have made a mockery of the whole framework published a few weeks ago. You can’t keep moving the goal-posts and expect the public to buy in to the plan.

Having said that, the absence of a clear plan here is our biggest problem. What is our goal? Without making that clear it’s hard for everyone to stay motivated.

 

[Massive Spanner]

To be honest, this is how it should work. Scientists issue advice, the government takes that advice on board, considers factors outside the scope of the scientists advice (impact on economy etc) then decides on next steps. I’m always inclined to side with the medics but jumping straight to level 5 would have made a mockery of the whole framework published a few weeks ago. You can’t keep moving the goal-posts and expect the public to buy in to the plan.

Having said that, the absence of a clear plan here is our biggest problem. What is our goal? Without making that clear it’s hard for everyone to stay motivated.

I think our goal should be to have everything back at level one by early December, which is why I would've been happy for level 4 (I still think level 5 would've been pure madness), which still isn't great, and for selfish reasons it means I can't go away on my already booked week off, but having things open for Christmas would be both amazing for people in general as well as a massive boost to the economy. If people are still told not to leave their counties for Christmas and pubs are still basically closed, they'll be pissed (and not the good pissed!).

Long, long term? Feck knows, we definitely need to adapt more of the EU regulations, that's for sure.

 

[McGrathsipan]

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He has the most punchable face on the planet. makes me angry just looking at him!!

 

[sullydnl]

To be honest, this is how it should work. Scientists issue advice, the government takes that advice on board, considers factors outside the scope of the scientists advice (impact on economy etc) then decides on next steps. I’m always inclined to side with the medics but jumping straight to level 5 would have made a mockery of the whole framework published a few weeks ago. You can’t keep moving the goal-posts and expect the public to buy in to the plan.

Having said that, the absence of a clear plan here is our biggest problem. What is our goal? Without making that clear it’s hard for everyone to stay motivated.

My main issue is Varadkar. I don't think generating "Varadkar criticises Holohan" stories about clear tensions between government ans NPHET helps, especially when his colleagues were trying to downplay the idea of any rift.

But yeah, the idea any NPHET advice would be weighed against socio-economic consequences was already layed out by government, as far as I'm aware. So it's not like they were intending to be forever tied to their advice. Big few weeks ahead though given Holohan is outright stating the government plan won't work. 1600-2300 new cases by Nov. 7th if the current trend continues, apparently.

 

[Pogue Mahone]

My main issue is Varadkar. I don't think generating "Varadkar criticises Holohan" stories about clear tensions between government ans NPHET helps, especially when his colleagues were trying to downplay the idea of any rift.

But yeah, the idea any NPHET advice would be weighed against socio-economic consequences was already layed out by government, as far as I'm aware. So it's not like they were intending to be forever tied to their advice. Big few weeks ahead though given Holohan is outright stating the government plan won't work. 1600-2300 new cases by Nov. 7th if the current trend continues, apparently.

Ok, yeah. Fair enough. Not great when this all plays out so publicly. Although the papers were going to be full of stories about this rift anyway. Varadkar is just “getting ahead of the story” no doubt as advised by some PR gonk. Seems to be a bit of rancour about NPHET and their media leak, which is ironic considering how every other decision - bar none - was leaked by the government.

 

[golden_blunder]

It’s very disappointing. When it was Varadkar, Harris and Holohan as the 3 amigos at the Covid peak, I always felt they were a good team, on the same page working together. So to see this play out publicly once Holohan comes back is disappointing and shows they aren’t in control as much as I thought

 

[McGrathsipan]

To be honest, this is how it should work. Scientists issue advice, the government takes that advice on board, considers factors outside the scope of the scientists advice (impact on economy etc) then decides on next steps. I’m always inclined to side with the medics but jumping straight to level 5 would have made a mockery of the whole framework published a few weeks ago. You can’t keep moving the goal-posts and expect the public to buy in to the plan.

Having said that, the absence of a clear plan here is our biggest problem. What is our goal? Without making that clear it’s hard for everyone to stay motivated.

We cant keep going in and out of hiding from this.
We need either a total and utter lock down to crush this or carry on as we are.

I am firmly of the belief that the economic damage and potential job losses and financial strain will cause more long term issues and mental health problems.
So we have to find a balance until science rescues us.

 

[jojojo]

Greater Manchester's amended figures for the week to 2nd October. For Manchester itself, the huge leap is in the university halls of residence areas - about 55% of cases are in 18-21 year olds, mostly asymptomatic or with minimal symptoms.

The same effect is probably happening in places like Salford, where there are also high student numbers - I suspect we may see jumps there once the testing ramps up.

 

[fergieisold]

Greater Manchester's amended figures for the week to 2nd October. For Manchester itself, the huge leap is in the university halls of residence areas - about 55% of cases are in 18-21 year olds, mostly asymptomatic or with minimal symptoms.

The same effect is probably happening in places like Salford, where there are also high student numbers - I suspect we may see jumps there once the testing ramps up.

University of Manchester now publishing daily confirmed cases. >200 per day now, presumably it's spreading rather nicely through halls of residence!

https://www.manchester.ac.uk/coronavirus/cases/

 

[Stack]

We cant keep going in and out of hiding from this.
We need either a total and utter lock down to crush this or carry on as we are.

I am firmly of the belief that the economic damage and potential job losses and financial strain will cause more long term issues and mental health problems.
So we have to find a balance until science rescues us.

Even if you have a complete lockdown and get it to a point of close to elimination then you have to be prepared to have ongoing control put in place for small outbreaks. There will be ongoing outbreaks that have to be contained. Regional limited restrictions cant be avoided. Its the nature of the beast. The biggest problem is getting general by in from the majority of the population, I think thats almost more difficult than the control measures, getting the public onboard.

 

[jojojo]

Allegedly the error, that saw test results go missing from the test and trace record keeping system last week, is that it uses xls files (possibly due to a csv import step) perhaps just because they're clueless. But quite possibly because a lot of NHS trusts haven't been able to upgrade systems since Excel 2003 ruled the roost.

From a basic techie perspective, data import from multiple sources is always an issue - which is why you write database imports that crosscheck that the correct number of records gets added each time. Obviously not if you're world beaters though. Which begs the question really - have they actually written an Excel database app rather than used an actual database?

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[Smores]

Allegedly the test and trace system uses xls files (possibly due to a csv import step) perhaps just because they're clueless. But quite probably because a lot of NHS trusts haven't been able to upgrade systems since Excel 2003 ruled the roost.

From a basic techie perspective, data import from multiple sources is always an issue - which is why you write database imports that crosscheck that the correct number of records gets added each time. Obviously not if you're world beaters though.

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Oh man that's bad

Serco and the like really are a joke. I'd love to know their change processes because not considering file volumes and formats is really fecking basic stuff.

It speaks volumes about government contracts though. Firms that had built up expertise got priced out of the contracts and the only ones willing to do them now are such crooks. There's a reason they're cheaper.

 

[CassiusClaymore]

Yeah I read this on the Serco/Excel cock up yesterday. Clowns

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[golden_blunder]

We cant keep going in and out of hiding from this.
We need either a total and utter lock down to crush this or carry on as we are.

I am firmly of the belief that the economic damage and potential job losses and financial strain will cause more long term issues and mental health problems.
So we have to find a balance until science rescues us.

Actually what we need to do is find a way to enforce mask wearing and other common sense measures that big proportions of numpties are ignoring, if we could do that we’d not need to entertain the idea of a lockdown