SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)

[Gehrman]

That is quite important though. If covid 19 is indeed the result of a gof leak, I think the least is to relocate these labs away from big cities.

Thank you for sharing the article, very informative.

On the whole Lab-leak hypothesis, I don't know if this article I read today reveals any new information, but I don't personally consider the whole thing completely implausible. If CCP had been more transparent in letting in an open international investigation it would look less shady, but the whole thing has become so politized and castastrophic that the consequences could be incredibly dangerous if it was a result of a accident.

https://www.taiwannews.com.tw/en/news/4104828

https://www.wired.com/story/if-covid-19-did-start-with-a-lab-leak-would-we-ever-know/

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7744920/

 

[TheGame]

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[Pexbo]

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First look suggests a downward trend of deaths until you see the numbers for last Monday and realise it’s trending upwards.

 

[TheGame]

First look suggests a downward trend of deaths until you see the numbers for last Monday and realise it’s trending upwards.

Deaths are over 28 days though so we are still play catch up so the figures will still be higher. Cases gradually coming down though.

 

[Stanley Road]

We might be getting a curfew and no household visits, bout feckin time

 

[Tibs]

37k people currently in hospital with Covid.

Will hit 90k deaths tomorrow, and unbelievably, 100k in probably 9 days. Horrific.

Vaccine roll out going well. However, in the next 8 weeks when a lot more people are going for their second jab, the rate of new vaccinations will slowly down significantly?

 

[Pexbo]

We might be getting a curfew and no household visits, bout feckin time

This isn’t the UK is it?

 

[Berbaclass]

This isn’t the UK is it?

Holland IIRC

 

[Nytram Shakes]

So in today's press conference someone asked:

"how much would it matter if there was a surge of cases among younger people, if the most vulnerable were already vaccinated? "​

To which Hannock replied:

"The most difficult question we don't have an answer to is how much a vaccine protects the most vulnerable groups, not just from catching Covid but from serious disease, and the degree of transmission that you get from people that have caught Covid. "​

That's a really scary statement, basically saying we don't know how much of an effect the vacancies are going to have on the vulnerable. Am I miss interpreting that?

I suppose that begs the question is the should probably play down the whole light at the end of the tunnel and don't blow it now stuff they are saying if they don't have the data to say the vulnerable will be protected after the vaccine.

 

[Fridge chutney]

Steve Cotterill, the manager of League 1 side Shrewsbury Town, has been battling Covid in intensive care.

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[Pogue Mahone]

So in today's press conference someone asked:

"how much would it matter if there was a surge of cases among younger people, if the most vulnerable were already vaccinated? "​

To which Hannock replied:

"The most difficult question we don't have an answer to is how much a vaccine protects the most vulnerable groups, not just from catching Covid but from serious disease, and the degree of transmission that you get from people that have caught Covid. "​

That's a really scary statement, basically saying we don't know how much of an effect the vacancies are going to have on the vulnerable. Am I miss interpreting that?

I suppose that begs the question is the should probably play down the whole light at the end of the tunnel and don't blow it now stuff they are saying if they don't have the data to say the vulnerable will be protected after the vaccine.

Unfortunately, he’s making a fair point. The most vulnerable are usually not eligible to take part in trials. Because of the unacceptable level of risk they’re exposed to with an untested treatment. So there’s always an element of the unknown when they start getting the drug in question. Having said that, they will definitely get some protection. It’s just hard to build accurate models based on exactly how much protection. And the accuracy of those models matters when it comes to making public health decisions.

 

[F-Red]

A year to the day since this thread first started.

 

[SalfordRed18]

A year to the day since this thread first started.

Terrible.

 

[Tibs]

So in today's press conference someone asked:

"how much would it matter if there was a surge of cases among younger people, if the most vulnerable were already vaccinated? "​

To which Hannock replied:

"The most difficult question we don't have an answer to is how much a vaccine protects the most vulnerable groups, not just from catching Covid but from serious disease, and the degree of transmission that you get from people that have caught Covid. "​

That's a really scary statement, basically saying we don't know how much of an effect the vacancies are going to have on the vulnerable. Am I miss interpreting that?

I suppose that begs the question is the should probably play down the whole light at the end of the tunnel and don't blow it now stuff they are saying if they don't have the data to say the vulnerable will be protected after the vaccine.

They need to start saying April for T3....already a lot of people thinking its going to be all systems go in March

 

[tombombadil]

Thank you fellas. The well wishes are truly appreciated.

Just an update: my mom seems to have a similar case to mine. She's experiencing very similar symptoms to what I had. My dad, however, is being hit much harder. He's a fighter... was captain of a football team that won 4 championships in a row, captain of a championship wrestling team, was a Chief Petty Officer in the US Navy... so he has it in him to flip a switch into the fighter mindset and go to battle, but he's older now and his body isn't as good at fighting as his mind still is. Thankfully, his blood oxygen is still between 93-95% at any given time, but he is having a very bad time with fever and nausea. When the nausea and fever finally subside and he tries to eat, his fever and nausea spike back up again, so he's feeling really weak even though he can still breathe relatively well. I dropped some Pedialyte powder off at their house today so he doesn't have to drink as much fluid to keep his electrolytes up. Hopefully that will help him some. Today is Day 10 since his symptoms began, so hopefully he only has to hang in there for a couple/few more days.

Well glad that your mom seems to be a mild case. Good that your dad is a fighter. Hope both your parents get well soon.

You are leading a similar phase to me, I really hope your parents recover swiftly and your wife is OK mentally too. It's not easy in ICU.

My wife is also working ICU here in London, do you mean your wife also works in ICU too? I certainly hope she's not admitted to ICU!

My parents too have covid. Thankfully my dad despite higher risk is having very mild symptoms, and my mum has zero appetite and severe exhaustion. Fortunately no cough or breathing difficulties, but it's only day 7 so few more days yet. I hope mine and your family pull through unaffected!

Sorry to hear that. Hope your parents get better soon.

 

[ZIDANE]

Do they provide stats for people admitted to hospital with Covid by age range?

 

[VP89]

Well glad that your mom seems to be a mild case. Good that your dad is a fighter. Hope both your parents get well soon.


Sorry to hear that. Hope your parents get better soon.

Thanks, and thanks all.

Fingers crossed from here.

 

[djembatheking]

My wife is getting vaccinated in the morning for work, she is a home carer and they have been told they will be getting tested twice weekly as it is still possible that they can catch and transmit covid but may not become ill or have any symptoms. Still a lot of unknowns but they have been told to act as if they haven`t been vaccinated and continue to distance, masks, hand washing etc but hopefully the vaccine should give the carers some protection.

 

[F-Red]

Do they provide stats for people admitted to hospital with Covid by age range?

Latest figures:

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopula...es/articles/coronaviruscovid19/latestinsights

 

[ZIDANE]

Latest figures:

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopula...es/articles/coronaviruscovid19/latestinsights

Cheers. Should’ve googled, always checked data summarised via other sources and never seen that after all this time...

I was curious how much the vaccine distribution focuses on the most common admissions into hospitals rather than infections and how quickly we’ll be able to see the impact.

 

[F-Red]

Cheers. Should’ve googled, always checked data summarised via other sources and never seen that after all this time...

I was curious how much the vaccine distribution focuses on the most common admissions into hospitals rather than infections and how quickly we’ll be able to see the impact.

Admissions data by the end of February should give a clearer picture, feels like it's too early to tell the impact of the vaccination programme on hospitalisations.

 

[Stanley Road]

Holland IIRC

Yes

 

[Pogue Mahone]

This is a grim read.

Almost 30% of Covid patients in England readmitted to hospital after discharge

The findings are based on data from the ONS and general practitioners in England. A total of 47,780 individuals who had a hospital episode between 1 January 2020 and 31 August 2020 with a primary diagnosis of Covid-19 were compared with a control group who did not have Covid-19.

Of the 47,780, 29.4% were readmitted within 140 days of discharge and 12.3% died. The rate of readmission was 3.5 times greater, and the death rate seven times higher, than those in the control group, the researchers found

 

[Wibble]

This is a grim read.

Almost 30% of Covid patients in England readmitted to hospital after discharge

I wonder if rushing people out to cater for new cases was a factor?

 

[Gambit]

One thing to note, it seems like there's a massive delay in getting the second jab, we're talking march/beginning of April,
Be interesting to see if your ma has the same time scale?!

Took my Great Aunt Maeve 3 weeks to get both.

 

[Pogue Mahone]

I wonder if rushing people out to cater for new cases was a factor?

Definitely a possibility.

 

[Bosws87]

My mum had the first dose of the oxford vaccine today been told to expect the second in 10 weeks.

 

[tombombadil]

I saw this report and was reminded of someone complaining of families visiting homes across states repeatedly.

https://www.gstatic.com/covid19/mobility/2021-01-15_GB_Mobility_Report_en-GB.pdf

Residential is literally up 21% whilst everywhere else is down.

Reminds me of somewhere I read about lots of infections stemming from social gatherings at homes. E.g. Once schools were closed, children primarily got infected from social gatherings from friends, etc. Which then spread to the rest of the family.

 

[Nytram Shakes]

Unfortunately, he’s making a fair point. The most vulnerable are usually not eligible to take part in trials. Because of the unacceptable level of risk they’re exposed to with an untested treatment. So there’s always an element of the unknown when they start getting the drug in question. Having said that, they will definitely get some protection. It’s just hard to build accurate models based on exactly how much protection. And the accuracy of those models matters when it comes to making public health decisions.

Yeah i'd red that previously, it just seemed very out of place as most of the message coming out of the government is don't blow it now, once the vaccines are in place things will return to near normal, theirs light at the end of the tunnel, yada yada yada.

So its weird for them then to say, basically we have no idea if this is actually gonna work in a small section of the news conference from a question asked by the public. It just seemed very contradictory.

 

[Pogue Mahone]

Yeah i'd red that previously, it just seemed very out of place as most of the message coming out of the government is don't blow it now, once the vaccines are in place things will return to near normal, theirs light at the end of the tunnel, yada yada yada.

So its weird for them then to say, basically we have no idea if this is actually gonna work in a small section of the news conference from a question asked by the public. It just seemed very contradictory.

They’re obviously very worried about people letting their guard down completely once the most elderly/vulnerable are vaccinated. So it’s important to remind everyone that the virus will remain very dangerous for a lot of people for a good while longer.

 

[golden_blunder]

Wife getting tested today. She’s been having sinus issues, upset tummy and slight temperature. She didn’t think it was unusual because this happens every year (sinus infections) but GP says lot of people presenting with these symptoms are found to have the new strain.
my wife works from home, kids are not in school, we are shielding and nearly no contact with outside world and when we do we are masked up

 

[FireballXL5]

From the BBC...

One in eight in England had Covid antibodies by December

Rachel Schraer
BBC Health Reporter

The proportion of the population testing positive for Covid-19 antibodies almost doubled between October and December 2020, according to Office for National Statistics estimates.
Approximately one in 10 people had antibodies against the virus across the UK in December, with England topping the list at one in eight people or about 12% of the population.
That equates to 5.4 million people over the age of 16.
In Wales, an estimated one in 10 had antibodies and one in 11 in Scotland. The likelihood of having antibodies was lowest in Northern Ireland at one in 13 or 7.6%.
Since October, the number of people with Covid antibodies has increased across the UK.
Yorkshire and the Humber has overtaken London as having the highest proportion of people with antibodies at 16.8%, up from 9.5% when the ONS last published the figures in October, and from below 5% in May.
London is close behind at 16.4%, up from 11% in October. At the last peak in May, 15% of the population in London had antibodies, but this fell, as detectable antibodies recede with time.
In the North West, 15% of people had antibodies, more than doubling from 6% in October.

 

[Nytram Shakes]

They need to start saying April for T3....already a lot of people thinking its going to be all systems go in March

I think they need to start being a bit more cautious in their messaging, from listening to them they make it sound like everything is going to relatively ok once people have been vaccinated. But then they say they don't have the data to say what effect it will have on vulnerable.

That means Its a very dangerous game their playing, acting like we are on the home straight to help keep morale up and to try to get people to stick to the rules when in reality they don't know that we are.

 

[Nytram Shakes]

They’re obviously very worried about people letting their guard down completely once the most elderly/vulnerable are vaccinated. So it’s important to remind everyone that the virus will remain very dangerous for a lot of people for a good while longer.

Ow I completely get that, its just the contradiction in the message that worries/frustrates me.

 

[Dante]

From the BBC...

One in eight in England had Covid antibodies by December

Rachel Schraer
BBC Health Reporter

The proportion of the population testing positive for Covid-19 antibodies almost doubled between October and December 2020, according to Office for National Statistics estimates.
Approximately one in 10 people had antibodies against the virus across the UK in December, with England topping the list at one in eight people or about 12% of the population.
That equates to 5.4 million people over the age of 16.
In Wales, an estimated one in 10 had antibodies and one in 11 in Scotland. The likelihood of having antibodies was lowest in Northern Ireland at one in 13 or 7.6%.
Since October, the number of people with Covid antibodies has increased across the UK.
Yorkshire and the Humber has overtaken London as having the highest proportion of people with antibodies at 16.8%, up from 9.5% when the ONS last published the figures in October, and from below 5% in May.
London is close behind at 16.4%, up from 11% in October. At the last peak in May, 15% of the population in London had antibodies, but this fell, as detectable antibodies recede with time.
In the North West, 15% of people had antibodies, more than doubling from 6% in October.

If that's true, 73,512 died out of ~6.7m infected people. So the IFR would have been 1.1%.

 

[11101]

I think they need to start being a bit more cautious in their messaging, from listening to them they make it sound like everything is going to relatively ok once people have been vaccinated. But then they say they don't have the data to say what effect it will have on vulnerable.

That means Its a very dangerous game their playing, acting like we are on the home straight to help keep morale up and to try to get people to stick to the rules when in reality they don't know that we are.

Leaving vulnerable people with weak immune systems half vaccinated for 3 months in the middle of a huge surge is an incredibly risky game to play when it comes to mutations.

 

[Fingeredmouse]

Leaving vulnerable people with weak immune systems half vaccinated for 3 months in the middle of a huge surge is an incredibly risky game to play when it comes to mutations.

Yes. This is what worries me most right now.

 

[Pogue Mahone]

If that's true, 73,512 died out of ~6.7m infected people. So the IFR would have been 1.1%.

The 6.7m infected is likely an underestimate as you’ll get a proportion with undetectable antibodies a few months after being infected (especially milder cases)

 

[Tibs]

1 in 8..wow, makes you realise the gravity of this mofo.

 

[Kaos]

Considering these numbers, would it be accurate to assume we'd probably need to vaccinate less people than initially anticipated to achieve national herd immunity?