Bit pessimistic there
SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)
- Thread starter Don't Kill Bill
- Start date
Oh dear, that's bad timing. But you're doing the right thing.
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Shit getting real with this poxy Indian variant. More transmissible, resistant to vaccines (especially after single dose) and as of today we know it’s twice as likely to put you in hospital. In the context of rising cases and increasing numbers in hospital. Looking more and more as though pressing on with full re-opening on the 12th is the exact opposite of the “data not dates” promises made a while back.
I’d wait on the hospitalisation claim seems a bit ahead of the gun, seeming as though they set it as confidence low on their risk assessment.
Yeah let’s wait on the data before we panic over the Delta variant (although I do love a good panic!). If it does turn out to be more deadly, we really need to find out why this virus is behaving this way where by every major mutation (I know it must mutate a lot more than we hear about but I mean the ones of concern) all seem to make it more infectious AND more deadly. What’s it gonna be like in five yrs?
I’m not sure what you mean? The data in that tweet looks rock solid. Big numbers being analysed and highly statistically significant result.
Only reiterating what is posted by themselves.
https://assets.publishing.service.g...k_assessment_for_SARS-CoV-2_variant_DELTA.pdf
We only hear about the mutations that make the virus more effective because they’re the ones that end up dominating. There’s a much bigger number of mutations that make it less good at its job but they’re all evolutionary dead ends that nobody gives a shit about.
I’ve no idea where we’ll be in five years time but I’m clinging to what I heard from a virologist who said that there’s only so many mutations it can possibly go through that are beneficial to the virus. We have to hope that this latest variant is as close to ‘perfection’ as it will ever get.
Scaremongering at it's finest. Hospital death's aren't rising are they? We can't keep locking down every time a new variant is discovered. This isn't isn't going away. It will go on for years.
Ok, gotcha. Well these data are hot off the press. Today is the first time we’ve seen any evidence of increased severity so you can understand why they’re hedging their bets. The results do seem quite convincing though.
Great response. So what's you suggestion? Stay inside the house for another year?
Only thing I’d say is when Kent was first detected and the data analysed I remember them saying it may result in up to 70% higher mortality but that turned out not to be the case. But yeah - we have to be looking at a 4 week delay here surely? And the school data is showing that’s the big driver for transmission - still no news here on vaccinating 12+ yet.
I’m fairly sure I remember you bleating about “scaremongering” in the run up to UK hospitals being pushed to the wall at least once, possibly twice, before. So not sure how else to respond to such a dumb comment.
My suggestion? Defer full reopening until a hell of a lot more people have had two doses of vaccine. Simple and obvious. So simple and obvious that I think it might actually happen.
Good point re mortality from Kent variant but I don’t remember seeing outcomes data as convincing as this when that variant was starting to dominate. Could be wrong. My memory isn’t great.
When do schools close for summer in the UK? Seems to be a race against time in terms of vaccine and schools right now. In Ireland our private schools are all closing in the next week or two. Public schools in three weeks time. Which hopefully buys us a bit of breathing space.
Weren't we told that if you don't have any underlying health conditions it would be rare to get seriously Ill off covid? If all of the vulnerable people have already had both doses then what's the problem?
the problem is the mass of numbers it’s highly unlikely on an individual level a lot of people would need to worry.
but millions upon millions of people even 0-30 years olds still an issue.
quick look at the total beds in the U.K. is 130k ish that’s gotta cover every ailment in society nvm just covid
I think that’s the hardest part for most people to get their head round. It’s not that everyone’s going to die of covid it’s just the health service is dead on it’s feet
Rare is not the same thing as impossible. Even if 1 in 1000 healthy 30 year olds get hospitalised by this virus (most likely real figure much higher than this) that’s a hell of a burden on hospitals/ICUs if millions get infected. Then we have the approximate 1 in 3 (at any age) who won’t be protected against this variant even after two doses of AZ (by far the most widely used vaccine in the UK) and the numbers look even worse. We’re already seeing people hospitalised and dead after two vaccine doses (read the tweets higher up)
There’s a reason that people far more expert than your or me see these latest data as a definitive reason to delay the final stages of reopening. And they’re not saying nobody leave their home. They’re saying cramming into pubs, restaurants and night clubs is a bad idea right now. Not until a hell of a lot more people, of all ages, are fully vaccinated. As I said, simple and obvious. The UK have made a load of bad decisions throughout this pandemic but I think they’ll get this one right.
Yeah, that last bit is a great point. Fatigue and burn-out aside, the hospitals have only recently started eating into the massive backlog of routine medical and surgical care. It would be devastating for them to have to batten down the hatches and pause all the waiting lists all over again.
You have more faith in them than me!
I have never seen so many holiday makers cramming into shops, pubs and cafes as there has been this week in my whole life , it is busier than ever round here and very few masks being worn.
It's just a little bit frustrating when you have been following the rules for over a year. You could see the situation in India getting worse and worse ages ago. The government were to slow to react and close off the border. It was so obvious it needed doing sooner.
That data and analysis you shared are highly concerning.
Schools in Scotland close in 4 weeks, in England nigh on a month later.
Yeah, it’s infuriating. Even if they’d cut the number of cases arriving from India by 50% the reopening might be able to go ahead as planned. How many fecking bodies being burned do you need to see to think maybe we should err on the side of caution?! The UK got such a great start with the vaccination roll out, breaks my heart ( as someone with friends/family in the UK and completely open borders with you) to see such a blatant feck-up when we were so close to the end.
Shitting hell. Two months from now?! That’s not good at all.
Wales have delayed allowing mixing indoors (3 households can form a bubble) by at least a further 3 weeks. That’s after June 21st so I don’t think all social distancing will be gone by then somehow.
Hopefully those beer gardens are full of chainsmokers.
What did they do to deserve hearing The Chainsmokers?
Just so long as none of them are on benefits.
Anyone else roll their eyes at the thought of Portugal being struck off the green list a mere week after thousands of football fans come back from....Portugal?
It’s worse then that the official line is to stop the Nepal variant as they don’t wanna take any risks.
laughable when you consider where we are now thanks to not stopping flights from India
It’s worse then that the official line is to stop the Nepal variant as they don’t wanna take any risks.
laughable when you consider where we are now thanks to not stopping flights from India
It's beyond comprehension now!!
A good summary of what the various bits of data in the latest PHE briefing do to projections of hospitalisations. Still a lot of uncertainty, not yet seeing a need to go back a step, but probably delaying June 21st a bit and hopefully accelerating distribution of vaccines.
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Umm, might need to be careful with statements like that. 2 doses of AZ still appears to be very effective against hospitalisation and death. There may well be more symptomatic cases, but it's not like you're not protected at all after 2 doses.
Ok, yeah, I worded that badly. The individual in whom the vaccine “fails” will hopefully have some protection against serious illness but for 1 in 3 the vaccine won’t stop them getting infected. Which ultimately leads to more and more cases and more seriously ill/dead.
Most, if not all schools in the NW break up for summer in July, I'd be delaying the 21st June deadline or whatever it is until August.
That's a whole different thing to what you misstated earlier. So if the majority of this country are double dosed up on AZ then they have an almost 0 out of 3 (not 1 out of 3) chance of serious hospitalisation or death.
The only ones at risk of serious hospitalisation/death are anti vaxxers or young population awaiting vaccination (who are at a much lower risk anyway - leaving long covid aside).
Weird that you would accuse me of a misstatement in a post containing such a blatant factual inaccuracy. Have a read of the data on the Indian variant posted in this thread. People who have had both vaccine doses have already been hospitalised by this variant. That number will obviously get higher and higher if the case numbers continue to increase.
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Apologies, I didn't mean you did anything deliberately. Bad choice of words from me. Appreciate the time you and others are spending on this and helping us all out by posting your knowledge here.
I try to understand these reports and numbers but my eyes start to glaze over. Best if I try again and come back with questions.
Based on that data, you're concluding that on 7 people having being hospitalised that have had both doses (i.e. an inpatient admission)? It's a very, very low percentage.