SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)

berbatrick

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The graph uses the variable IFR, which is true. IFR'S are measured by the reported Covid deaths divided by the number of Covid deaths. You have mentioned that the chance of being killed outright by Covid is about 1 in 10.000 from the age of about 20. The graphic indicates a sligtly below 0.01% fatality rate for the woman and 0.01% for man in the category of young adults. The UK has rougly 4.200.000 young adults from that age category 20-24. If all of them got infected, that would result in 420 deaths going by the IFR of 0.01%. That is not really an overwhelming significant risk, is it? Am i wrong here? If so, why?
death is not the only serious adverse outcome.
why are you focusing on 20-24 alone, they don't live on a separate island? hence, won't encouraging the rapid spread of the virus among one subpopulation also lead to vastly increased transmission among those younger and older than them, also, increased chance of mutation (and of course more death and long-term health issues).

Based on quick maths using 18-29 numbers from these sources (1 2, 2500 dead, 124633 admitted to hospital), it seems for every young dead, there are 50 young in hospitals, which means you are aspiring to 21,000 people in hospitals (not to mention others, more susceptible, getting it off them), which might be an "overwhelming significant risk". uk hospitalisation peak was 3500, your hope doesn't seem ideal!

e - updated a wrong link (1)
 
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LazyRed-Ninja

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I think the majority of people are what they call in our country ‘Corona tired’. New stories coming out every day while people are just trying to enjoy and live their lives.

Unfortunately this pandemic has impacted the world drastically. At some point, we just have to accept that Corona will more likely then not stay here for the long run. Im sure that goverments and medical institutions will have more data available as time goes by and that they will keep investing and developing in health protocols/procedures, vaccine technology etc.
 

4bars

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It should be mandatory in places of health care. You can argue all the others if you like but in a medical facility it should be mandatory
Is enters in the cathegory that i said. You work in health care? Then you need the vaccine. You dont want to have it? Then you lose your job. You have the choice to find another job that accepts you without being vaccinated

Not mandatory, but your choices have consequences. The more restrictive, the more "mandatory it seems"
 

stw2022

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Not sure it’s much different to thinking a surgeon shouldn’t be obliged to wash his hands before surgery. He’s free not to; he doesn’t have to be a surgeon.

Nobody has an entitlement to a job and preference against a vaccine isn’t a protected characteristic
 

mav_9me

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Here you go. Read this. Now I’ve previously shared multiple peer reviewed articles with you. On here and via PM and you’re giving the impression of not reading any of them. If you’re going to pretend to be open-minded and curious then you really need to do us all a favour and actually make an effort to read the evidence you keep asking for.

This study uses age-specific COVID-19-associated death data from 45 countries and the results of 22 seroprevalence studies to investigate the consistency of infection and fatality patterns across multiple countries. This is seriously robust data.

Here’s the most relevant graph (although, obviously, you need to read the full article to understand it properly).

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-020-2918-0/figures/2

These are infection fatality rates. The IFR is the most conservative possible way to assess mortality. Case fatality rates (CFR) can overestimate mortality because they don’t consider asymptomatic cases or cases so mild they don’t go and get tested.

As you can see from the graph you chance of being killed outright by covid is about 1 in 10000 from the age of about 20. This increases to about 1 in 1000 by the age of 40. And so on. That’s the risk you take if you choose immunity via infection. And that’s just using death as an end point. Not considering hospitalisation (which is absolutely fecking miserable, believe me) or long covid, or even shitty but minor consequences like permanently losing or altering your sense of taste or smell.

Can you imagine how absolutely fecked the world would be if vaccines killed 1 in 1000 of all the 40 year old who got them? Or how about putting much higher numbers than that in hospital? Or leaving them feeling like shit for months and years afterwards? Or permanently messing with taste/smell?

Well you can only imagine because the vaccines would never have been licensed if they were as damaging to your health as covid. Having been licensed, extensive follow up surveillance in millions and millions of people have confirmed they are absolutely fecking MILES safer than infection with covid. And we may still be waiting for the really long term safety data but we’re also waiting for the long term data on infection with the novel coronavirus SARS-COV-2 (and we already now that there are definite medium term adverse effects thanks to the millions of people suffering with long covid)

To prattle on about preprints which show that covid infection might have slightly increased duration of effect than vaccines (assuming nobody ever gets vaccine boosters) as a reason to choose this method of immunity over vaccination is so spectacularly wrong-headed I find myself repeatedly wondering if you really are entering this discussion as open-minded as you claim to be.

And now I’m annoyed at myself for replying to you again….
Not sure how you can continue to do this.

My friend in Florida just yesterday had a 24 y/o die from Covid and another 22 y/o with covid woke up blind, suspected due to encephalitis with possible occipital stroke, work up ongoing.

And here we have this guy arguing infection is fine for young people. Sigh.
 

Pexbo

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Wumminator

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A guy I know well has tested positive. His wife who is heavily pregnant is in ICU and they had to deliver the baby early.

The guy has been spreading anti vax stuff constantly.

There’s nothing about his life that suggests he js smart. He failed his schooling, he is constantly in trouble with the police.

How on Earth someone like that has the arrogance to be antivaccine is mental to me.
 

The Cat

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A guy I know well has tested positive. His wife who is heavily pregnant is in ICU and they had to deliver the baby early.

The guy has been spreading anti vax stuff constantly.

There’s nothing about his life that suggests he js smart. He failed his schooling, he is constantly in trouble with the police.

How on Earth someone like that has the arrogance to be antivaccine is mental to me.
The few anti vaxxers I know are similar. Always on Facebook on about it - the same people who went mental over Trump losing as well.
 

hp88

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Thoughts on full houses at football matches etc again?
I went to the game yesterday, felt a bit weird at first but it was great meeting up with some of guys who I haven’t seen in over year.

One thing that made me feel a bit uneasy was the lack of testing before the game, did a quick LFT before I left home so at least I know I have done my bit for those around me.
 

Dan_F

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Yeah to be honest not sure why the government have set the mandatory requirement for this in October.
So all over 18s have had the chance to get both jabs. I’m 32 and only had my second a week ago, despite booking my first as soon as it was available for me.
 

Steven Seagull

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Doubt there will be a spike and if there is it won’t be interesting. vast majority at football games will be double jabbed by now as there isn’t the same young demographic at the games.
If it’s not the pubs it’s the protests, euros, then it’s the holidays, then the domestic football, then next will be the schools again.
The vaccines are doing a tremendous job.
 

SirAnderson

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Anyone know or experienced the following post covid after effects:

A strong smokey taste at the back of the throat when laying down and lingers for a bit when standing up, but then goes away?
 

Dan_F

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If it didn't happen in London after euro 2020 why would it happen now?
I’m not going to argue that it will make a difference, as I have no idea, but there was 60k in a 90k capacity stadium for two games, with stricter rules around masks etc on public transport. I believe that went down to 40k for the Germany game, and less for the group stage games. All in a 90k stadium.

Logic says that 75k in a 75k capacity Old Trafford, for example, would bring bigger risk. Then multiplied by all the full capacity stadiums across the country.
 
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decorativeed

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I’m not going to argue that it will make a difference, as I have no idea, but there was 60k in a 90k capacity stadium for two games with stricter rules around masks etc on public transport. I believe that went down to 40k for the Germany game, and less for the group stage games. All in a 90k stadium.

Logic says that 75k in a 75k capacity Old Trafford, for example, would bring bigger risk. Then multiplied by all the full capacity stadiums across the country.
That's what I was thinking. There's also a lot more space around you at a sold out Wembley than at a sold out Old Trafford, where people are really packed in there.
 

Salt Bailly

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Anyone know or experienced the following post covid after effects:

A strong smokey taste at the back of the throat when laying down and lingers for a bit when standing up, but then goes away?
Sounds like a textbook case of Shatner's Bassoon.
 

Rektsanwalt

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Anyone know or experienced the following post covid after effects:

A strong smokey taste at the back of the throat when laying down and lingers for a bit when standing up, but then goes away?
that sounds incredibly weird! I somehow expect some sort of secretion being the cause of this in combination with an affected taste sense? Like, if it stops after standing up, my logic is it simply goes down your throat, while when you're laying down it sort of accumulates around your pharynx.
 

Wibble

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Nothing you’ve provided there is in any way relevant to the point you’re disagreeing with!

Obviously, prior infection gives you good (but not complete) protection. Nobody would disagree with this. I certainly don’t. However there’s no convincing evidence that prior infection gives a more durable response or better protection against new variants than vaccination. It’s just not possible for that sort of long term comparable data to be available this early in the vaccine roll-out.

The point you seem to keep (deliberately?) ignoring is that obtaining immunisation by infection is considerably more dangerous than immunisation by vaccine. There’s absolutely no doubt about this. The medical community are divided on a few issues relating to covid but this is not one of them.

With all due respect, life is too short to give you fully referenced responses when you repeatedly ignore the main point being made in my posts.
Immunity through infection is always more variable than by vaccination. No reason to suspect that SARS-CoV-2 is any different. And of course you have to be not dead to get immunity from actual infection.

If you get Delta and survive/don't get long covid/permanent damage to your health then just maybe you might get slightly better immunity to that strain (until the vaccines are tweaked in the next couple of months) but a hell of a risk give the variable immunity from infection and the much larger chances of serous harm or dealt. Basically it is an idiotic choice. The stats just don't even come close to adding up.
 

Wibble

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fair enough:lol:

to answer that, I’m referring to the development of the immunesystem after vaccination. Vaccination didn’t start 18 months ago.
No it began in the 1500s.

All the signs are that covid vaccination produce a good and long term (as long term as we can currently assess) response including all 4 types of memory cell. Which is of course exactly what you might reasonably expect. And that is before Pfizer and Modena release new versions of their vaccines tweaked for Delta in the next few months.

https://science.sciencemag.org/content/371/6529/eabf4063#:~:text=CONCLUSION,predictive of T cell memory.

If infections was better than vaccination why would we use vaccination for everything else? Perhaps because it has saved so many lives?
 
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LazyRed-Ninja

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Not sure how you can continue to do this.

My friend in Florida just yesterday had a 24 y/o die from Covid and another 22 y/o with covid woke up blind, suspected due to encephalitis with possible occipital stroke, work up ongoing.

And here we have this guy arguing infection is fine for young people. Sigh.
Please dont attribute misinformation towards me, thanks! I've never said young people can not catch covid, that would be absolutely silly to say. I've said the majority of young people recover naturally through the antibodies made through the immune system. That does not negate that vaccinations are an important factor to get this virus under control. With in that category of those recovering naturally, there are cases of individuals who still have the post covid symptoms, but statistically they are in the minority.

In our country (The Netherlands), we have as of August 10, an estimated 17.878 deaths. 15.924 are from the age bracket of 70-90+, with the majority of them having underlying health risks and 145 deaths from 50 years and downwards. You will find similar patterns worldwide in regards to these statistics.

Another example for illustration purposes is the United States (statistics as of april 2020). This is outdated data, but the disproportionality in age bracket and with/without underlying conditions has shown to be consistent.

AGE​
Number of DeathsShare of deathsWith underlying conditionsWithout underlying conditionsUnknown if with underlying cond.Share of deaths
of unknown + w/o cond.
0 - 17 years old
3​
0.04%
3​
0​
0​
0%​
18 - 44 years old
309​
4.5%
244​
25​
40​
1.0%​
45 - 64 years old
1,581​
23.1%
1,343​
59​
179​
3.5%​
65 - 74 years old
1,683​
24.6%
1,272​
26​
385​
6.0%​
75+ years old
3,263​
47.7%
2,289​
27​
947​
14.2%​
TOTAL
6,839
100%​
5,151​
137 (2.0%)​
1,551​
24.68%​

(source: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-age-sex-demographics/).

Young people do attract covid but as you can see on the graphic for the United States, they account for less then 5% and the majority of them had underlying conditions). The underlying conditions was/is the majority variable in every age bracket. The ratio 'with underlying conditions' vs 'without underlying conditions' are very disproportionate as you can see. This age disproportion will be 'similar' in most of the countries. Therefore, i am not saying some 'controversial' statements, or something new whatsoever. Im merely highlighting the already available information about the disproportional ratio of age in combination with underlying conditions in comparison to age without underlying conditions. Vaccination is key, especially for immune compromised individuals as the stats show. Nothing more and nothing less is said by me.
 
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Stack

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Please dont attribute misinformation towards me, thanks! I've never said young people can not catch covid, that would be absolutely silly to say. I've said the majority of young people recover naturally through the antibodies made through the immune system. That does not negate that vaccinations are an important factor to get this virus under control. With in that category of those recovering naturally, there are cases of individuals who still have the post covid symptoms, but statistically they are in the minority.

In our country (The Netherlands), we have as of August 10, an estimated 17.878 deaths. 15.924 are from the age bracket of 70-90+, with the majority of them having underlying health risks and 145 deaths from 50 years and downwards. You will find similar patterns worldwide in regards to these statistics.

Another example for illustration purposes is the United States (statistics as of april).

AGE​
Number of DeathsShare of deathsWith underlying conditionsWithout underlying conditionsUnknown if with underlying cond.Share of deaths
of unknown + w/o cond.
0 - 17 years old
3​
0.04%
3​
0​
0​
0%​
18 - 44 years old
309​
4.5%
244​
25​
40​
1.0%​
45 - 64 years old
1,581​
23.1%
1,343​
59​
179​
3.5%​
65 - 74 years old
1,683​
24.6%
1,272​
26​
385​
6.0%​
75+ years old
3,263​
47.7%
2,289​
27​
947​
14.2%​
TOTAL
6,839
100%​
5,151​
137 (2.0%)​
1,551​
24.68%​

(source: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-age-sex-demographics/).

Young people do attract covid but as you can see on the graphic for the United States, they account for less then 5% and the majority of them had underlying conditions). The underlying conditions was/is the majority variable in every age bracket. The ratio 'with underlying conditions' vs 'without underlying conditions' are very disproportionate as you can see. This age disproportion will be 'similar' in most of the countries. Therefore, i am not saying some 'controversial' statements, or something new whatsoever. Im merely highlighting the already available information about the disproportional ratio of age in combination with underlying conditions in comparison to age without underlying conditions. Vaccination is key, especially for immune compromised individuals as the stats show. Nothing more and nothing less is said by me.
Are you able to break down the Netherlands stats to show the Delta variants impact?
 

LazyRed-Ninja

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No it began in the 1500s.

All the signs are that covid vaccination produce a good and long term (as long term as we can currently assess) response including all 4 types of memory cell. Which is of course exactly what you might reasonably expect. And that is before Pfizer and Modena release new versions of their vaccines tweaked for Delta in the next few months.

https://science.sciencemag.org/content/371/6529/eabf4063#:~:text=CONCLUSION,predictive of T cell memory.

If infections was better than vaccination why would we use vaccination for everything else? Perhaps because it has saved so many lives?
I've never said infections were better then vaccination. I was providing sources to say there are evidences to suggest that immunity through infection can induce long- term immunity in most individuals. As an example (NATURE), stated:

'' The good news is that the evidence thus far predicts that infection with SARS-CoV-2 induces long-term immunity in most individuals. This provides a welcome positive note as we wait for further data on memory responses to vaccination. ''

The same article stated the following about immunity through vaccination:

' Finally, Wang and colleagues show that immunity can be boosted even further in convalescent individuals by vaccinating them after a year. This resulted in the generation of more plasma cells, together with an increase in the level of SARS-CoV-2 antibodies that was up to 50 times greater than before vaccination.''

It's fantastic news if vaccines lead up to 50 times more antibodies after vaccination, the higher the antibodies the higher the protection. The specifics are still being researched, but that is logical, considering how science works and the more data will become available.

full article: https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-01557-z

Hope that clears it up!
 

berbatrick

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@LazyRed-Ninja your US death stats in post #59,909 might either be from april last year or are off by a factor of 100.


either way, do you have anything to add about this?

death is not the only serious adverse outcome.
why are you focusing on 20-24 alone, they don't live on a separate island? hence, won't encouraging the rapid spread of the virus among one subpopulation also lead to vastly increased transmission among those younger and older than them, also, increased chance of mutation (and of course more death and long-term health issues).

Based on quick maths using 18-29 numbers from these sources (1 2, 2500 dead, 124633 admitted to hospital), it seems for every young dead, there are 50 young in hospitals, which means you are aspiring to 21,000 people in hospitals (not to mention others, more susceptible, getting it off them), which might be an "overwhelming significant risk". uk hospitalisation peak was 3500, your hope doesn't seem ideal!

e - updated a wrong link (1)
 

Wibble

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I've never said infections were better then vaccination. I was providing sources to say there are evidences to suggest that immunity through infection can induce long- term immunity in most individuals. As an example (NATURE), stated:

'' The good news is that the evidence thus far predicts that infection with SARS-CoV-2 induces long-term immunity in most individuals. This provides a welcome positive note as we wait for further data on memory responses to vaccination. ''

The same article stated the following about immunity through vaccination:

' Finally, Wang and colleagues show that immunity can be boosted even further in convalescent individuals by vaccinating them after a year. This resulted in the generation of more plasma cells, together with an increase in the level of SARS-CoV-2 antibodies that was up to 50 times greater than before vaccination.''

It's fantastic news if vaccines lead up to 50 times more antibodies after vaccination, the higher the antibodies the higher the protection. The specifics are still being researched, but that is logical, considering how science works and the more data will become available.

full article: https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-01557-z

Hope that clears it up!
Why would anyone be surprised that infection can produced a decent immune response? Usually more variable but still decent. We designed vaccines to produce the same or better immune response without actually being infected and suffering the consequences. Even if infection produced a slightly better immune response why would millions of deaths be worth that? It makes zero sense.
 

LazyRed-Ninja

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@LazyRed-Ninja your US death stats in post #59,909 might either be from april last year or are off by a factor of 100.


either way, do you have anything to add about this?
The point of the graphic was to show the disproportional ratio in the age bracket with and without underlying conditions, in the overall reported death statistics.

In regards to your point, can you add a link for that quote, for reading material.

In regards to your question of why i focussed on the age bracket of age 20-24 is as followed. I responded to this specific sentence of another conversation i had > ' As you can see from the graph you chance of being killed outright by covid is about 1 in 10000 from the age of about 20'

It would be appreciated if you could share the link, ill respond to your post after reading it.
 

Wibble

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The point of the graphic was to show the disproportional ratio in the age bracket with and without underlying conditions, in the overall reported death statistics.

In regards to your point, can you add a link for that quote, for reading material.

In regards to your question of why i focussed on the age bracket of age 20-24 is as followed. I responded to this specific sentence of another conversation i had > ' As you can see from the graph you chance of being killed outright by covid is about 1 in 10000 from the age of about 20'

It would be appreciated if you could share the link, ill respond to your post after reading it.
It is idiotic to try to justify not vaccinating everyone based on a single age group as society is not a single age group. And deaths are far from the only consequence with long covid, the collapse of heath services and having to hear covidiots daily but on the plus side there fewer annoying birthdays/wedding anniversaries we have to attend for grandparents.
 

Wibble

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Question for the clever folk in this thread....

My 9 year old daughter has just tested positive, her sister (11) and my wife and I (in our 40s) are still negative. But her best friend has also tested positive and that family were due to go on holiday tomorrow, obviously she can not go but the others have all tested negative and have asked us if their positive daughter can come and stay with us while they go on holiday! Are we increasing our risk at all by having 2 rather than 1 positive person in the house? we are both double vaccinated.
Kinell.

2 positive people in your house raises the risk of infection for everyone else, vaccinated or not. The girl's family are already at an increased risk of infection and they shouldn't be holidaying at all when they risk spreading infection (again irrespective of vaccination status). Leaving a sick kid with someone else so you can holiday is probably the least annoying factor in that request.
 

LazyRed-Ninja

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Why would anyone be surprised that infection can produced a decent immune response? Usually more variable but still decent. We designed vaccines to produce the same or better immune response without actually being infected and suffering the consequences. Even if infection produced a slightly better immune response why would millions of deaths be worth that? It makes zero sense.
Logic would dictate that it would be absolute foolish for anyone to deny the impact science and vaccines have had on life expectancy and health in general. Thus anybody debating that would by default make a fool of himself.

My argument was about the disproportional ratio of the statistical variables of age with underlying health conditions vs age without underlying health conditions. The immune compromised people have suffered the most deaths as a consequence of this virus. The not immune compromised represent the overwhelming minority statistically, but within this group there are categories as well, ranging from no symptoms, to mild to severe. Within this category there is another differentiation to be made, in terms of those who experience post covid symptoms.

The dis proportionality was my point, nothing more and nothing less.
 

LazyRed-Ninja

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It is idiotic to try to justify not vaccinating everyone based on a single age group as society is not a single age group. And deaths are far from the only consequence with long covid, the collapse of heath services and having to hear covidiots daily but on the plus side there fewer annoying birthdays/wedding anniversaries we have to attend for grandparents.
Im not trying to justify not vaccinating based on a single age group. I've said that statistically the risk groups had more importance, in regards to the lower risk. This does not negate that the lower risk group can still vaccinate, im not debating that. What i do say is that i believe in right of choice.

hope that clears it up!