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- Oct 22, 2010
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death is not the only serious adverse outcome.The graph uses the variable IFR, which is true. IFR'S are measured by the reported Covid deaths divided by the number of Covid deaths. You have mentioned that the chance of being killed outright by Covid is about 1 in 10.000 from the age of about 20. The graphic indicates a sligtly below 0.01% fatality rate for the woman and 0.01% for man in the category of young adults. The UK has rougly 4.200.000 young adults from that age category 20-24. If all of them got infected, that would result in 420 deaths going by the IFR of 0.01%. That is not really an overwhelming significant risk, is it? Am i wrong here? If so, why?
why are you focusing on 20-24 alone, they don't live on a separate island? hence, won't encouraging the rapid spread of the virus among one subpopulation also lead to vastly increased transmission among those younger and older than them, also, increased chance of mutation (and of course more death and long-term health issues).
Based on quick maths using 18-29 numbers from these sources (1 2, 2500 dead, 124633 admitted to hospital), it seems for every young dead, there are 50 young in hospitals, which means you are aspiring to 21,000 people in hospitals (not to mention others, more susceptible, getting it off them), which might be an "overwhelming significant risk". uk hospitalisation peak was 3500, your hope doesn't seem ideal!
e - updated a wrong link (1)
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