SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)

[Reddevildans]

Looks like Boris is gonna do nothing and let England carry on being the Omicron Breading ground of the planet.

You want more restrictions? You understand globally omicron will rise and rise and will become dominant until the next strain comes which will do the same. Restrictions again? Covid will be here forever. This is a fact which all scientists have made. If omicron is mild and hospitalises the unvaccinated why should everyone else be under restrictions? People will continue to die from covid, some may get long covid but you have to counter balance your restrictions argument with consequences of restrictions. Its the poor and middle who will suffer long term.

Nothing has worked. Not even vaccine passports. You need a 98%+ compliant and adherent population for good control. Western countries with libertarian attitudes will never have great control with covid . Lockdowns worked to keep the NHS from bulking. Vaccines have been amazing and should continue to be.

It's disturbing how much of the population now accept restrictions when we have had these highly effective vaccines. It's normalisation in some people's minds. It's not the society or life one should live in. If a highly contagious AND deadlier variant comes then fair enough. That's just piss poor luck. But by the looks of it the immunity built from infection and vaccines seems to be working.

 

[dal]

Tweet

— Twitter API (@user) date

No further restrictions until NY has passed. Following the data indeed.

Looks like we might be out of this earlier than I thought, fingers crossed.

 

[Droid_Repairs]

Tweet

— Twitter API (@user) date

No further restrictions until NY has passed. Following the data indeed.

I don't know what to make of this.

On the one hand, highest admissions since March sounds bad - but cases proportionate to infections remains relatively low, as do deaths.

 

[cyberman]

I don't know what to make of this.

On the one hand, highest admissions since March sounds bad - but cases proportionate to infections remains relatively low, as do deaths.

But isn’t that the danger? It’s less severe but the rise in infection numbers makes up for that so say it’s 1000 hospitalised per 1m then 1000 per 3m makes no difference to overflowing capacity

 

[Dante]

I don't know what to make of this.

On the one hand, highest admissions since March sounds bad - but cases proportionate to infections remains relatively low, as do deaths.

It's also dependent on whether they're incidental infections.

1 in 10 people had Covid in London on 19 December. Assuming a 2.4 days doubling rate, that figure would now be 8 in 10. Obviously, it's not going to be quite that high in reality. But it shows that Covid is rampant in everybody - even those who are being treated for a broken arm or a nosebleed or a UTI.

So the figures for hospitalisation WITH Covid are far lees meaningful than the figures for hospitalisation OF Covid. Because the former would have happened anyway and aren't filling beds any more than normal, whereas only the latter would be improved by restrictions.

 

[groovyalbert]

Is it right that people are spending less time in hospital/fewer in ICU with Omicron? If so, daily admissions might not mean the high build up of long-term patients it did during past waves.

 

[TheLiverBird]

You want more restrictions? You understand globally omicron will rise and rise and will become dominant until the next strain comes which will do the same. Restrictions again? Covid will be here forever. This is a fact which all scientists have made. If omicron is mild and hospitalises the unvaccinated why should everyone else be under restrictions? People will continue to die from covid, some may get long covid but you have to counter balance your restrictions argument with consequences of restrictions. Its the poor and middle who will suffer long term.

Nothing has worked. Not even vaccine passports. You need a 98%+ compliant and adherent population for good control. Western countries with libertarian attitudes will never have great control with covid . Lockdowns worked to keep the NHS from bulking. Vaccines have been amazing and should continue to be.

It's disturbing how much of the population now accept restrictions when we have had these highly effective vaccines. It's normalisation in some people's minds. It's not the society or life one should live in. If a highly contagious AND deadlier variant comes then fair enough. That's just piss poor luck. But by the looks of it the immunity built from infection and vaccines seems to be working.

Exactly this for me

 

[King Eric 7]

So the figures for hospitalisation WITH Covid are far lees meaningful than the figures for hospitalisation OF Covid.

Why are they mixing all the figures together? It would be nice to know the true stats but as you said this data is pretty meaningless.

 

[stw2022]

I get calls for further restrictions but if we constantly impose restrictions for a virus everyone accepts isn’t going away when, like most viruses, it ebbs and flows in terms of case numbers isn’t that essentially like arguing we want constantly have the threat of lockdowns hanging over us permanently?

For economic reasons alone surely that can’t be allowed to be the situation

 

[Suedesi]

Just got my results, SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19): POSITIVE

Last 2 days have been very rough (fever, chills, dry throat, foggy head, extreme fatigue) - but thankfully no chest pains or difficulty breathing. Hoping to put this behind me soon.

 

[Pogue Mahone]

I get calls for further restrictions but if we constantly impose restrictions for a virus everyone accepts isn’t going away when, like most viruses, it ebbs and flows in terms of case numbers isn’t that essentially like arguing we want constantly have the threat of lockdowns hanging over us permanently?

For economic reasons alone surely that can’t be allowed to be the situation

The pandemic will end. They always do. We’ll eventually build up enough immunity (either through infection or vaccines) to defang the virus. We’re not there yet, though. The only sensible people calling for restrictions now are doing so as a short term fix to get us through this winter. From next winter on they should never be necessary again (until the next pandemic anyway!)

 

[Droid_Repairs]

Just got my results, SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19): POSITIVE

Last 2 days have been very rough (fever, chills, dry throat, foggy head, extreme fatigue) - but thankfully no chest pains or difficulty breathing. Hoping to put this behind me soon.

Feel better, were you vaccinated?

 

[Droid_Repairs]

The pandemic will end. They always do. We’ll eventually build up enough immunity (either through infection or vaccines) to defang the virus. We’re not there yet, though. The only sensible people calling for restrictions now are doing so as a short term fix to get us through this winter. From next winter on they should never be necessary again (until the next pandemic anyway!)

I want to believe that, but not many people saw saw the Omicron curveball coming. I do wonder how many more times a mutation will wreak havoc - especially if it pulls a MERS on us and mutates into something more lethal!

 

[Suedesi]

Feel better, were you vaccinated?

Yep - vaccinated and boostered. Today's the first day after 3-4 that I feel better.

Now come on, let's beat the Toon!

 

[Stanley Road]

Because people are going about their normal lives again not having to social distance??

What’s hard to understand?

Well we're in lockdown and people are still catching it

 

[jojojo]

Why are they mixing all the figures together? It would be nice to know the true stats but as you said this data is pretty meaningless.

The with covid/because of covid split isn't always recorded immediately on admission, sometimes awaiting test results or other diagnostics. It may not matter much initially in terms of treatment options, they still have to put you on some kind of covid ward to handle infection control. Net effect, the NHS gets raw beds numbers from English hospitals a couple of days before it gets the with/of data. The medical and scientific teams use the data as it arrives, the data also appears a bit later at:
https://www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
Some of the public files are updated daily, others weekly. Different people want different numbers, but all the data has to come from somewhere, and it arrives on different days.

The with/of split file is known as the Primary Diagnosis Supplement.

The split is running at about 3 covid patients to 1 "with covid" patient at present. That split can be deceptive of course. If you're in for a broken leg, the covid may just be uncomfortable and unpleasant but won't make your leg worse. If you're in for cancer treatment it might be more than your body can take.

Incidentally - all the stats this week need to be read with caution - they're still catching up with test results and data collection from Christmas weekend and some people will have delayed tests or even delayed going to hospital because they were trying so hard to enjoy Christmas they wouldn't accept they were ill. There's data missing and data delayed so headlines definitely aren't the whole story.

 

[Pogue Mahone]

I want to believe that, but not many people saw saw the Omicron curveball coming. I do wonder how many more times a mutation will wreak havoc - especially if it pulls a MERS on us and mutates into something more lethal!

Omicron’s been a bit of a curveball in terms of contagiousness but it’s really just accelerated the positive trend of covid killing a smaller and smaller % of people it infects. Not necessarily because the variants become less lethal, so much as their impact on an increasingly vaccinated/infected population gets less and less problematic. I fully expect that trend to continue.

 

[Stanley Road]

You want more restrictions? You understand globally omicron will rise and rise and will become dominant until the next strain comes which will do the same. Restrictions again? Covid will be here forever. This is a fact which all scientists have made. If omicron is mild and hospitalises the unvaccinated why should everyone else be under restrictions? People will continue to die from covid, some may get long covid but you have to counter balance your restrictions argument with consequences of restrictions. Its the poor and middle who will suffer long term.

Nothing has worked. Not even vaccine passports. You need a 98%+ compliant and adherent population for good control. Western countries with libertarian attitudes will never have great control with covid . Lockdowns worked to keep the NHS from bulking. Vaccines have been amazing and should continue to be.

It's disturbing how much of the population now accept restrictions when we have had these highly effective vaccines. It's normalisation in some people's minds. It's not the society or life one should live in. If a highly contagious AND deadlier variant comes then fair enough. That's just piss poor luck. But by the looks of it the immunity built from infection and vaccines seems to be working.

We're in lockdown and cases have fallen by more than 10k per day in a short time

 

[Vidyoyo]

We're in lockdown and cases have fallen by more than 10k per day in a short time

Yeah but you like being in lockdown

maybe, i dunno, probably not

 

[ColvaleGoa]

At least Sajid has saved New year's Eve!

 

[calodo2003]

Tweet

— Twitter API (@user) date

 

[King Eric 7]

Thanks for the detailed info @jojojo, that was super useful to know

 

[jojojo]

Interesting update from the chairman of NHS Providers - the local trusts who administer the NHS hospital system. Some discussion of "incidental covid" - people testing positive for covid who are in for something else, some encouraging news on severity and numbers if ICU patients - though inevitable coming with the cautionary note that we don't yet know what will happen as omicron rates rise in the older groups.

Also:
"Striking how many chief executives are saying that, on current evidence, they think omicron related staff absences may be a greater challenge than number of omicron related severely ill patients they have to treat."

Tweet

— Twitter API (@user) date

 

[Eboue]

Tweet

— Twitter API (@user) date

Just a complete failure of governance

 

[Stanley Road]

Yeah but you like being in lockdown

maybe, i dunno, probably not

I do, if only the Dutch would stop going to Germany and Belgium to have beer nights

 

[Dumbstar]

Tweet

— Twitter API (@user) date

Just a complete failure of governance

Isn't he basically telling the red States, "Don't make the fed government the evil Vaccination Nazis. If you want to save 'your' people speak up Repubs and save them. Or watch them die".

Basically Biden is damned if he goes national and he's damned if he goes state.

 

[berbatrick]

Tweet

— Twitter API (@user) date

 

[Mr Pigeon]

I don't know what to make of this.

On the one hand, highest admissions since March sounds bad - but cases proportionate to infections remains relatively low, as do deaths.

Deaths from Covid are low, but what about people who are missing out on cancer treatments and life saving surgery or treatments because of this?

Until we get to a point where the unvaccinated are given the middle finger at the front door and told to feck off our NHS is still going to be overloaded with these cnuts.

 

[The Cat]

Deaths from Covid are low, but what about people who are missing out on cancer treatments and life saving surgery or treatments because of this?

Until we get to a point where the unvaccinated are given the middle finger at the front door and told to feck off our NHS is still going to be overloaded with these cnuts.

Unfortunately, well said.

 

[christy87]

Deaths from Covid are low, but what about people who are missing out on cancer treatments and life saving surgery or treatments because of this?

Until we get to a point where the unvaccinated are given the middle finger at the front door and told to feck off our NHS is still going to be overloaded with these cnuts.

I’d love to see a vaccination to work thing set up, as I know there is several of them in my place, including the supervisor, one of them is balls deep in conspiracies.

 

[Klopper76]

I know this includes a backlog but still:

Tweet

— Twitter API (@user) date

 

[Posh Red]

Just got my results, SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19): POSITIVE

Last 2 days have been very rough (fever, chills, dry throat, foggy head, extreme fatigue) - but thankfully no chest pains or difficulty breathing. Hoping to put this behind me soon.

I’m in exactly the same boat right now. Nasty stuff.

 

[berbatrick]

I know this includes a backlog but still:

Tweet

— Twitter API (@user) date

also an undercount since many people have found it hard to get tested or to get results on time.

 

[Dante]

Given that the UK is already 89% single vaxxed, 82% double vaxxed and 56% boosted, the current set of loose Covid restrictions seem to be designed to save the NHS from getting swamped, while also allowing the whole population to reach some semblance of herd immunity asap.

I think a lot hinges on whether reducing the isolation period to 7 days will free up enough medical staff in time for the inevitable coming surge. And, of course, that the surge itself isn't bigger than than the projections have predicted.

The fact that Scotland and NI have decided to err on the side of caution suggests that Boris is walking a fine line with his gamble. But I'm hopeful that he'll be right. I've got leave booked in February and I don't want to spend it at home.

 

[Stack]

Given that the UK is already 89% single vaxxed, 82% double vaxxed and 56% boosted, the current set of loose Covid restrictions seem to be designed to save the NHS from getting swamped, while also allowing the whole population to reach some semblance of herd immunity asap.

I think a lot hinges on whether reducing the isolation period to 7 days will free up enough medical staff in time for the inevitable coming surge. And, of course, that the surge itself isn't bigger than than the projections have predicted.

The fact that Scotland and NI have decided to err on the side of caution suggests that Boris is walking a fine line with his gamble. But I'm hopeful that he'll be right. I've got leave booked in February and I don't want to spend it at home.

Are you sure on those numbers? Is that for above a certain age group or the entire population?

 

[Dante]

Are you sure on those numbers? Is that for above a certain age group or the entire population?

Ah, yeah, sorry. I plugged in 57m instead of 67m as the UK population. It should be 76%, 70% and 48% for the entire population.

That being said, uptake for eligible over 12s it's 89.8%, 82.2% and 56.5%. So if we're bringing age into it, the real figures are even better.

There was a bit of a pause after 23rd December because all the sites shut down. But I expect the vaccination program to pick up again this week.

 

[berbatrick]

Will omicron defeat the world's only successful 0-covid strategy?

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...battles-biggest-community-outbreak-since-2020


Lockdown restrictions have been tightened in the Chinese city of Xi’an, which is battling the largest community outbreak the country has seen since the initial months of the pandemic when China brought thousands of daily infections under control.

Authorities reported 162 new community infections on Monday, up from 158 on Sunday. All but 10 of Monday’s new cases were reported in Shaanxi province, where 13 million residents of the capital Xi’an have been forced to stay in their homes for five days.

The lockdown is the first time China had implemented such severe measures since 2020, as authorities continue to doggedly pursue a “zero Covid” approach to stamp out all local infections ahead of the Beijing Winter Olympics in February.

Since the coronavirus first emerged in the central city of Wuhan in late 2019, China has largely kept the pandemic at bay with tight border restrictions, lengthy quarantines and targeted lockdowns. It has officially recorded only two deaths in over a year.

While low by international standards, the new case number marks the highest count of local symptomatic infections since March 2020, when the daily bulletin provided by the National Health Commission started to classify asymptomatic carriers separately. On Saturday, the country recorded the highest daily rise in local cases in 21 months as infections more than doubled in Xi’an. In total there have been 635 confirmed coronavirus cases during the 9 to 26 December period.

 

[Ferguson’s Hairdryer]

Exactly this for me

There are generally some who want restrictions and lockdowns simply for the fun of it. Don’t know if it’s the WFH or hope that furlough returns, but you can see the appeal to some. Stay at home, work whenever, spend time with the family, no travelling to work, go out for that leisurely stroll and grab a takeaway coffee….. I wonder if they’d still want lockdowns if we had a Chinese style lockdown ? I doubt it.

Now don’t get me wrong, if hospitalisations become too much then yes it’s a sacrifice we have to make. But that’s the point it’s a sacrifice eg something I won’t enjoy and hope the need never arises but will accept as a last resort once the data and reality means that’s the only option. But there are some who genuinely seem to just want restrictions and lockdown simply for lifestyle reasons.

 

[Wibble]

Given that the UK is already 89% single vaxxed, 82% double vaxxed and 56% boosted, the current set of loose Covid restrictions seem to be designed to save the NHS from getting swamped

Is that just adults?

 

[jojojo]

Is that just adults?

Over 12s. Under 12s aren't eligible unless clinically vulnerable. The 12-18 group were on a single dose instruction until last month.