SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)

[Rhyme Animal]

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Is that less lethal than Influenza in people who’ve also been vaccinated against Flu? If that makes sense… or is it just across society as a whole?

And if so (the latter), what percentage of the population are Influenza vaccinated vs what percentage are Coronavirus vaccinated?

Sorry for all the questions.

 

[Pogue Mahone]

Is that less lethal than Influenza in people who’ve also been vaccinated against Flu? If that makes sense… or is it just across society as a whole?

And if so (the latter), what percentage of the population are Influenza vaccinated vs what percentage are Coronavirus vaccinated?

Sorry for all the questions.

The latter. And only a tiny % of the population are influenza vaccinated.

So, in a world without vaccines there’s absolutely no doubt that covid would be a hell of a lot more lethal than influenza right now.

But that’s mainly because influenza’s been around for ages so even without vaccines there’s a good level of population immunity. As more and more time goes by the same will happen with SARS-CoV-2.

 

[jojojo]

Is that less lethal than Influenza in people who’ve also been vaccinated against Flu? If that makes sense… or is it just across society as a whole?

And if so (the latter), what percentage of the population are Influenza vaccinated vs what percentage are Coronavirus vaccinated?

Sorry for all the questions.

They're population level stats. If you go to the linked article they go deeper into how the pattern looks in different age groups. Broadly, some combination of infection and vaccination has moved us from a position where the IFR was worse than flu in every age group (and much worse for anyone over 40) to a position where the IFR is lower than for flu, even amongst the oldest.

The flu IFR is based on data from a study in New Zealand, where flu booster jab takeup is typically around 70% in the 65+ group. Keep in mind though, that's annual booster takeup - the number that have had a flu jab sometime will be higher, and almost all of them will have had flu multiple times as well. Covid vaccine takeup in the UK in the 65+ group is more than 95% and close to 100% in the over 70s.

What that means, looking at the UK whole population:
https://www.ft.com/content/e26c93a0-90e7-4dec-a796-3e25e94bc59b
"For every 100,000 Omicron infections, 35 will result in death, while the equivalent number of flu infections will lead to 40 fatalities, the data showed. Even among the over-80s, where about one-in-200 Omicron infections still results in death, this figure is now lower than the equivalent for flu."

They are using "infections" in their analysis (rather than cases), and they base their infection numbers on the weekly ONS random survey, which means they pick up asymptomatic and unnoticed infections, as well as the recorded kind.

Keep in mind, we're talking about rates - if you've got lots of infections, you still get lots of deaths. That's where we're at now. Covid infection rates are currently much higher than the flu infections we see in a typical flu season and overall respiratory disease deaths are higher as well - despite the fact that we aren't really "back to normal" in terms of mixing and behaviour etc. As it happens, flu cases are low at the moment, presumably because we aren't actually back to normal.

 

[Pexbo]

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“Just a bad flu”

Not even.

The bad flu brigade were way ahead of their time.

 

[decorativeed]

The faintest of lines, but I've just done a positive lft.

Last few weeks I've stopped being as careful, and we went away for a few days this week to the Lakes. Almost everywhere we went for food and drinks was heaving, so I hope that I caught it in one of those places rather than took it in there.

Felt knackered the last couple of days, but if put it down to a long walk. Bad throat last night and a bit snotty, so we came home a little early today and tested. Bugger.

Also felt like I kept getting indigestion the last couple of days, wonder if that is related...

 

[Brophs]

I know it's a little route 1 to go down the kids say funny things road, but apparently one of the lads in my daughter's class shat himself and then speculated to the teacher that he might have Covid. Good lad. Don't show weakness.

 

[Pogue Mahone]

I know it's a little route 1 to go down the kids say funny things road, but apparently one of the lads in my daughter's class shat himself and then speculated to the teacher that he might have Covid. Good lad. Don't show weakness.

 

[berbatrick]

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In the current study, most COVID-19 cases among students and staff were acquired from the community and approximately 10% of cases were acquired within school. The researchers found that for every 100 community-acquired cases, school districts with mandatory masking had approximately 7.3 cases of in-school infections, while optionally masked districts had 26.4 cases of in-school infections. In other words, school districts with optional masking had approximately 3.6 times the rate of in-school COVID-19 cases when compared to schools with mandatory masking. These data also show that mandatory masking was associated with a 72% reduction of in-school COVID-19 cases, compared to districts with optional masking.

The study included 61 school districts (kindergarten through grade 12) that provided data from July 26, 2021, through Dec. 13, 2021, a period encompassing the Delta surge and preceding the Omicron surge. In total, there were 40,601 primary infections acquired in the community (36,032 among students, 4,569 among staff) and 3,085 secondary infections acquired in school (2,844 among students, 241 among staff). Of these school districts, six districts (10%) had optional masking policies; nine had partial masking, i.e., policies that changed during the study or only applied to certain grade levels (15%); and the remaining 46 districts (75%) required masking for the entirety of the study.

Emily Oster, charlatan.

 

[Klopper76]

The mask mandate in BC ends tonight at midnight. It'll be interesting to see whether cases spike or not. A lot of people here are vaccinated/boosted.

 

[Pogue Mahone]

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Emily Oster, charlatan.

You can take all those mask studies with a big pinch of salt. So many confounding variables. The most obvious is that anywhere with mandatory masks will have a “covid cautious” mindset overall. So they’ll be more careful about testing, self-isolation, ventilation etc etc

To be fair, that does still technically mean that mask mandates are helping keep cases down, just not in the way you think.

Living somewhere where masks were worn in basically every indoor space (with extraordinarily high compliance) for a very long time I’m absolutely loving not wearing a mask any more (other than on public transport). It should be a small thing but life feels so much better now masks are a thing of the past. We’ll only fully realise what an imposition they were when they’re gone for good.

 

[Wibble]

The latter. And only a tiny % of the population are influenza vaccinated.

So, in a world without vaccines there’s absolutely no doubt that covid would be a hell of a lot more lethal than influenza right now.

But that’s mainly because influenza’s been around for ages so even without vaccines there’s a good level of population immunity. As more and more time goes by the same will happen with SARS-CoV-2.

Australia is normally around the 45% of adults mark. 2020 saw a huge boost with over 70% getting their flu shot.

I also think that many people, possibly most, confuse colds with actual flu. I had H1N1 unvaccinated in 2009 and I was so sick with double pneumonia that I had to refuse medical advice to be admitted to ICU because I was too busy. I have never ever felt so unwell.

 

[Wibble]

Living somewhere where masks were worn in basically every indoor space (with extraordinarily high compliance) for a very long time I’m absolutely loving not wearing a mask any more (other than on public transport). It should be a small thing but life feels so much better now masks are a thing of the past. We’ll only fully realise what an imposition they were when they’re gone for good.

I wear mine (a P2 mask) in almost all public indoor spaces except when I'm sitting down eating or drinking. I don't find it much of an imposition at all barring having to remember to carry a mask with you.

 

[UnofficialDevil]

I wear mine (a P2 mask) in almost all public indoor spaces except when I'm sitting down eating or drinking. I don't find it much of an imposition at all barring having to remember to carry a mask with you.

Yep me too. If accidentally speak to someone even briefly with us both not wearing a mask, I get really worried.

 

[Stanley Road]

Shocked by the amount of cases per day in NL, 70k up from 1500pd before rwlaxat

 

[Pogue Mahone]

I wear mine (a P2 mask) in almost all public indoor spaces except when I'm sitting down eating or drinking. I don't find it much of an imposition at all barring having to remember to carry a mask with you.

Yep me too. If accidentally speak to someone even briefly with us both not wearing a mask, I get really worried.

That was me a few months ago. As I said, you only realise how much better life is without masks when you get to experience it again. I was always in the “it’s just a minor inconvenience” camp but it’s actually quite dehumanising. Really messes with day to day human interactions, that gets you down over time.

 

[Wibble]

We are experiencing a surge in cases in Sydney at about the lag time you would expect post compulsory mask wearing stopping and density restrictions in pubs and restaurants were removed. There is a suspicion that the Omicron BA.2 sub-variant is responsible but I'm not convinced.

 

[Wibble]

That was me a few months ago. As I said, you only realise how much better life is without masks when you get to experience it again. I was always in the “it’s just a minor inconvenience” camp but it’s actually quite dehumanising. Really messes with day to day human interactions, that gets you down over time.

Not having kids at home probably makes it easier for me and now being 58 the risks of severe disease are getting greater. I actually find people not wearing masks in places where distancing isn't possible very inconsiderate. It will be quite some time before I stop habitually wearing a mask as I don't think we are really in the "living with covid" stage yet. Not until we vaccinate the world and hopefully largely stop new variants arising. That will be great though. The last 2 years have been quite shit in various ways for all.

 

[berbatrick]

You can take all those mask studies with a big pinch of salt. So many confounding variables. The most obvious is that anywhere with mandatory masks will have a “covid cautious” mindset overall. So they’ll be more careful about testing, self-isolation, ventilation etc etc

To be fair, that does still technically mean that mask mandates are helping keep cases down, just not in the way you think.

Living somewhere where masks were worn in basically every indoor space (with extraordinarily high compliance) for a very long time I’m absolutely loving not wearing a mask any more (other than on public transport). It should be a small thing but life feels so much better now masks are a thing of the past. We’ll only fully realise what an imposition they were when they’re gone for good.

I was referring to an economist who ran a "school covid tracker" or something like that, where, having been told that she was excluding a lot of schools from her analysis, she refused to change her inputs. She then got published (WaPo, NYT) as an advocate for in-person maskless teaching in summer 2020, winter 2020, all through delta, omicron, etc. Agree that mask studies are difficult to do properly, but hers was terrible, and very obviously led to a pre-decided outcome.

Personally, all remaining mask mandates (city and university) ended this Monday, but my boss, the bosses of the course I teach, and my department, have all said they expect us to continue. Teaching 20 students without much non-verbal communication sucks, but I've got used to it at this point, and it's my last month of teaching (possibly forever!) anyway.

...

Also thanks to you and @jojojo for very clear answers you gave me about a booster for my father - he did get one, and the journey went ok.

 

[UnofficialDevil]

That was me a few months ago. As I said, you only realise how much better life is without masks when you get to experience it again. I was always in the “it’s just a minor inconvenience” camp but it’s actually quite dehumanising. Really messes with day to day human interactions, that gets you down over time.

I feel like I haven't got a personality anymore. Half my face is always covered. No expressions etc. Can't wait till its safe to not wear it anymore.

 

[Rams]

Shocked by the amount of cases per day in NL, 70k up from 1500pd before rwlaxat

yeah but hardly any get hospitalized now because of the immunity wall. Just about everybody I know has had Covid and is fully vaccinated.

 

[Stanley Road]

yeah but hardly any get hospitalized now because of the immunity wall. Just about everybody I know has had Covid and is fully vaccinated.

I'm fortunate enough to not have had covid or a normal cold for 2 years. Thats compared to 4 weeks in total off sick in my first 5 months in the office in 2019. I think that tells us all we need to know about wfh

 

[Pogue Mahone]

I was referring to an economist who ran a "school covid tracker" or something like that, where, having been told that she was excluding a lot of schools from her analysis, she refused to change her inputs. She then got published (WaPo, NYT) as an advocate for in-person maskless teaching in summer 2020, winter 2020, all through delta, omicron, etc. Agree that mask studies are difficult to do properly, but hers was terrible, and very obviously led to a pre-decided outcome.

Personally, all remaining mask mandates (city and university) ended this Monday, but my boss, the bosses of the course I teach, and my department, have all said they expect us to continue. Teaching 20 students without much non-verbal communication sucks, but I've got used to it at this point, and it's my last month of teaching (possibly forever!) anyway.

...

Also thanks to you and @jojojo for very clear answers you gave me about a booster for my father - he did get one, and the journey went ok.

Yeah, it’s easy to talk tough about life without a mask when you’re not in a lecture room/class room with dozens of youths breathing on you every day!

In other news, think I’ve finally caught the damn thing. Daughter covid positive since the weekend and I’ve woken up with a scratchy throat. Feck it anyway.

Glad your dad’s booster went ok.

 

[DixieDean]

When do you think we're going to hear about a new booster? Especially, for the vulnerable.

 

[Massive Spanner]

Yeah, it’s easy to talk tough about life without a mask when you’re not in a lecture room/class room with dozens of youths breathing on you every day!

In other news, think I’ve finally caught the damn thing. Daughter covid positive since the weekend and I’ve woken up with a scratchy throat. Feck it anyway.

Glad your dad’s booster went ok.

RIP.

I wish you a speedy death.

 

[Donut]

Is the omicron vaccine still planned? I remember they were saying it’s coming in March.

 

[F-Red]

When do you think we're going to hear about a new booster? Especially, for the vulnerable.

It's already been discussed - https://www.gov.uk/government/news/...ement-on-spring-covid-19-booster-vaccinations

 

[langster]

Was feeling shitty on Wednesday and woke up feeling rough yesterday. Just thought I had a nasty cold but did a test last night and tested positive again so have now had it twice in 3 months ffs.

Exactly the same symptoms and overall feeling as the last time too.

It's rife here in Torbay once again too, not surprising really as we are still insanely busy compared to a normal February/March time. So many visitors still coming here on holiday.

 

[Pogue Mahone]

RIP.

I wish you a speedy death.

I was hoping to hang round long enough to see us win one more PL title, which makes this particularly cruel (although, realistically, old age would have put paid to that dream anyway)

 

[jojojo]

I'm interested to know at what stage posters who are still committed to maskwearing and other interventions like working from home etc, will feel it's time to stop. I'm not really thinking of the context sensitive maskwearing - like visiting the doctor or on crowded public transport - I'm thinking more about when meeting people socially or in a work/education setting.

So if you're not yet in maskless normality:
When will you stop routinely wearing a mask?
When will you feel OK about other people around you not wearing masks?

 

[jojojo]

RIP.

I wish you a speedy death.

Sounds like you went to the same bedside-manner lectures at Med School as Pogue

 

[Bebestation]

I'm interested to know at what stage posters who are still committed to maskwearing and other interventions like working from home etc, will feel it's time to stop. I'm not really thinking of the context sensitive maskwearing - like visiting the doctor or on crowded public transport - I'm thinking more about when meeting people socially or in a work/education setting.

So if you're not yet in maskless normality:
When will you stop routinely wearing a mask?
When will you feel OK about other people around you not wearing masks?

I'm currently abroad in Asia where everyone wears masks almost to show respect for each other.

It's kind of like how Japan wear masks before the pandemic as a way of respect.

I kind of like the idea of me always wearing it.

Living In England everyone is a bit more self centered and wearing a mask is thought of a hassle for ones self rather than helping others out.

 

[Massive Spanner]

Sounds like you went to the same bedside-manner lectures at Med School as Pogue

I have conflicted feelings. On the one hand he was a sensible voice in here during Covid, on the other hand he disagreed with me on my nonsensical views and therefore I hate him forever and wish great misery upon him.

 

[jojojo]

When do you think we're going to hear about a new booster? Especially, for the vulnerable.

As @F-Red said there's a plan in place for the 75+ group that may be set in motion this month (6 months after first booster) and some people on the clinically vulnerable lists are already scheduled to get them as fourth/booster doses.

After weeks of declining cases/hospitalisations/deaths in the UK, there's currently a slight upturn taking place, at least on cases and hospitalisations. They're still analysing this, and need a week or two's more data, but if it's not just a blip it might lead them to accelerate/change the plan.

Is the omicron vaccine still planned? I remember they were saying it’s coming in March.

So far the omicron targeted boosters haven't shown particularly great results in lab testing - they didn't seem to produce a broader/better response than a straight booster. They're in clinical trials now, but a lot of the enthusiasm for them faded when those lab antibody results came out.

 

[jojojo]

I'm currently abroad in Asia where everyone wears masks almost to show respect for each other.

It's kind of like how Japan wear masks before the pandemic as a way of respect.

I kind of like the idea of me always wearing it.

Living In England everyone is a bit more self centered and wearing a mask is thought of a hassle for ones self rather than helping others out.

When you say "always wearing it" do you just mean on things like public transport, or when you/they are at events like concerts, shows, movies or in sports stadia? Do people wear them in the workplace/classroom as well? What about when socialising in people's homes or in hospitality settings or in the gym etc?

Apologies for pushing for more detail - I'm just curious about what it means in practice

 

[Bebestation]

When you say "always wearing it" do you just mean on things like public transport, or when you/they are at events like concerts, shows, movies or in sports stadia? Do people wear them in the workplace/classroom as well? What about when socialising in people's homes or in hospitality settings or in the gym etc?

Apologies for pushing for more detail - I'm just curious about what it means in practice

Literally if you step outside your house to the corners hope then your almost obliged to wear a mask.

 

[berbatrick]

Spoke to a Chinese guy (anti-Mao, but lately pro-Xi, he lives in Macao now) who blames HK cases on "HK people want to be free" - their govt doesn't seal buildings when they detect a single case, unlike what happens with the disciplined Chinese people
He's happy with low cases and things being mostly open in China, but unhappy at lack of life on the streets (blames online shopping that started in 2020).

 

[Pogue Mahone]

After weeks of declining cases/hospitalisations/deaths in the UK, there's currently a slight upturn taking place, at least on cases and hospitalisations. They're still analysing this, and need a week or two's more data, but if it's not just a blip it might lead them to accelerate/change the plan.

Anecdotally we’re going through a pretty serious surge of cases in Ireland. I say anecdotally because you can’t trust the case numbers any more now that the official guidance is basically to not bother getting tested unless old/vulnerable. But over the last week there seems to have been a crazy amount of people I know, directly and indirectly, going down (including everyone in chez moi!). Hospitals/ICUs filling up as well. People also seem to be getting sicker. Again anecdotal and still not very sick but there seems to be a shift from the “mild head cold” of early omicron days to being completely flattened with high fevers, aches and pains. Extremely sore throat also a feature. Hard not to wonder about BA2 turning out to be a bit of a game changer.

 

[2cents]

Anecdotally we’re going through a pretty serious surge of cases in Ireland. I say anecdotally because you can’t trust the case numbers any more now that the official guidance is basically to not bother getting tested unless old/vulnerable. But over the last week there seems to have been a crazy amount of people I know, directly and indirectly, going down (including everyone in chez moi!). Hospitals/ICUs filling up as well. People also seem to be getting sicker. Again anecdotal and still not very sick but there seems to be a shift from the “mild head cold” of early omicron days to being completely flattened with high fevers, aches and pains. Extremely sore throat also a feature. Hard not to wonder about BA2 turning out to be a bit of a game changer.

Yeah my daughter tested positive this morning. Think I may have had it earlier in the week but tested negative today.

 

[Pogue Mahone]

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So yeah, as I was saying…

 

[Amar__]

I'm currently abroad in Asia where everyone wears masks almost to show respect for each other.

It's kind of like how Japan wear masks before the pandemic as a way of respect.

I kind of like the idea of me always wearing it.

Living In England everyone is a bit more self centered and wearing a mask is thought of a hassle for ones self rather than helping others out.

Has wearing a mask actually ever proven to be some mega helpful thing?

Considering how often people touch their masks with their hands and how many people are not careful with it, I cannot see how mask is helping at all. If anything, I can see it being helpful in spreading the virus in many cases.