SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)

[Wibble]

COvid-19 cant really be compared to the common flu.

The mortality rates of the common flu are like 0.1%. In the U.S. alone, the common flu causes an estimated 26 million illnesses, 250,000 hospitalizations and 14,000 deaths this season, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC).

The coronavirus is like 2% or in the case of poorer healthcare infrastructure it can go up at 10% as in Iran. For the COVID-19, its like 87,000 cases and almost 3,000 deaths as of today.

Most likely the Iranian numbers are wrong with the majority of mild cases not being recorded.

It looks like the fatality rate is between 1 and 2 % partly dependent on the quality of medical care and the speed of intervention.

I'd guess this might drop as immunity gets built up in the world's population.

 

[Giggs86]

Next virus will transmit only through bootcut jeans.

At least we know that it won't be a sexually transmitted virus then.

 

[zing]

I'm a little confused, Wikipedia says, "An airborne disease is any disease that is caused by pathogens that can be transmitted through the air. The relevant pathogens may be viruses, bacteria, or fungi, and they may be spread through breathing, talking, coughing, sneezing, raising of dust, spraying of liquids, toilet flushing or any activities which generates aerosol particles or droplets."

It seems that's he's describing an airborne virus. He make a distinction about chicken pox that it can be transported "via air currents". Is he trying to say chicken pox is more airborne than the also airborne coronavirus?

https://www.ucsf.edu/news/2020/02/4...progresses-and-why-one-test-may-not-be-enough
The new coronavirus is spread through droplets and surfaces.

The principal mode of transmission is still thought to be respiratory droplets, which may travel up to six feet from someone who is sneezing or coughing. The new coronavirus isn’t believed to be an airborne virus, like measles or smallpox, that can circulate through the air. “If you have an infected person in the front of the plane, for instance, and you’re in the back of the plane, your risk is close to zero simply because the area of exposure is thought to be roughly six feet from the infected person,” said Chiu.

http://kanehealth.com/Documents/Diseases/Ebola-infections-spread-by-air-or-droplets.pdf

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Transmission_(medicine)#Airborne_infection

Airborne infection

"Airborne transmission refers to infectious agents that are spread via droplet nuclei (residue from evaporated droplets) containing infective microorganisms. These organisms can survive outside the body and remain suspended in the air for long periods of time. They infect others via the upper and lower respiratory tracts." [10] The size of the particles for airborne infections need to be < 5 μm[11]. It includes both dry and wet aerosols and thus requires usually higher levels of isolation since it can stay suspended in the air for longer periods of time. i.e., Separate ventilation systems or negative pressure environments are needed to avoid general contamination. e.g

Droplet infection

"Droplet transmission occurs when respiratory droplets generated via coughing, sneezing or talking contact susceptible mucosal surfaces, such as the eyes, nose or mouth. Transmission may also occur indirectly via contact with contaminated fomites with hands and then mucosal surfaces. Respiratory droplets are large and are not able to remain suspended in the air thus they are usually dispersed over short distances."[12] The size of the particles for droplet infections are > 5 μm[11]. Droplet infections are usually transmitted by wet droplets and thus are less likely to stay

Organisms spread by droplet transmission include respiratory viruses (e.g., influenza, parainfluenza virus, adenovirus, respiratory syncytial virus, human metapneumovirus), Bordetella pertussis, pneumococci, diphtheria, and rubella.[13]

 

[zing]

COvid-19 cant really be compared to the common flu.

The mortality rates of the common flu are like 0.1%. In the U.S. alone, the common flu causes an estimated 26 million illnesses, 250,000 hospitalizations and 14,000 deaths this season, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC).

The coronavirus is like 2% or in the case of poorer healthcare infrastructure it can go up at 10% as in Iran. For the COVID-19, its like 87,000 cases and almost 3,000 deaths as of today.

I am aware of the differences. The mortality rate and transmission are two independent things.

I pasted that because I thought it is interesting and there may be some similarities in transmission rate patterns because both are coronaviruses. It is still a nice article even if there are none.

 

[zing]

China getting criticised for not being Draconian enough... now I've heard it all.

Where?

The criticism I've seen is that they didn't act fast enough - which is 100% true. We'd not been in this shit if they'd behaved like an ostrich with their heads in the sand.

 

[Wibble]

Nursing home showing symptoms in Washington

Even the buildings are getting sick now.

 

[Wibble]

@Sassy Colin found it

https://www.thepoke.co.uk/2020/02/2...eory-is-like-a-tinfoil-hatters-greatest-hits/

 

[Member 60376]

It's been a long time but I have found a Dante post that I fully agree with.... Cheers

He's in August company

 

[massi83]

Even the buildings are getting sick now.

Have there been any local cases in Australia? Not related to travel or meeting with someone who has travelled.

If not, do you think it is because of the; 1: climate, not flu season in Southern hemisphere. 2: lack of testing. 3: luck 4: measures by government (doubt it myself)?

 

[Pexbo]

Next virus will transmit only through bootcut jeans.

That rules out it being an STI then.

 

[Rajma]

On a lighter note, a man here in Lithuania has locked down his wife in the bathroom suspecting her of having Coronavirus. It required firefighters to free her up. Also, we only had one confirmed case so far to give you some context (returnee from Italy).

 

[sglowrider]

On a lighter note, a man here in Lithuania has locked down his wife in the bathroom suspecting her of having Coronavirus. It required firefighters to free her up. Also, we only had one confirmed case so far to give you some context (returnee from Italy).

He thought it was an STD from an illicit affair?

 

[Wibble]

Have there been any local cases in Australia? Not related to travel or meeting with someone who has travelled.

If not, do you think it is because of the; 1: climate, not flu season in Southern hemisphere. 2: lack of testing. 3: luck 4: measures by government (doubt it myself)?

All cases so far are linked to China or Iranian travel, plus some from that cruise ship, who we evacuated home.

One of the recent Iranian linked cases is a worry as she worked in a beauty salon in one of the busiest shopping centres in the country. She self reported as soon as she got symptoms but it could now be in the general population.

Hopefully it still being warm here might help but we are on the way to autumn/winter so that might not be the case soon.

We did take good precautions for evacuees from infected areas and banned China flights early so fingers crossed.

 

[massi83]

All cases so far are linked to China or Iranian travel, plus some from that cruise ship, who we evacuated home.

One of the recent Iranian linked cases is a worry as she worked in a beauty salon in one of the busiest shopping centres in the country. She self reported as soon as she got symptoms but it could now be in the general population.

Hopefully it still being warm here might help but we are on the way to autumn/winter so that might not be the case soon.

We did take good precautions for evacuees from infected areas and banned China flights early so fingers crossed.

Thanks! Yes seems like you banned flights already on 1st of Feb and asked people to self quarantine. So response was a lot better than in Europe.

Still countries like Thailand give a lot of credence to the thought that climate plays a big role. Which would be excellent news. Better to have a problem for 1/3 year than all the time.

So in Europe I think it will get worse until around end of April maybe and then better. We will know more with more data, of course.

 

[BootsyCollins]

Swedish newspapers reporting from a WHO research group that went to China. Not a single case of children infecting other children or adults.
dont know what age they mean as children, but good news anyway.

 

[sglowrider]

Swedish newspapers reporting from a WHO research group that went to China. Not a single case of children infecting other children or adults.
dont know what age they mean as children, but good news anyway.

Even 2-day old infants have recovered after getting the virus. It seems that the coronavirus is a culling exercise for the elderly and those with pre-existing chronics.

 

[BootsyCollins]

Even 2-day old infants have recovered after getting the virus. It seems that the coronavirus is a culling exercise for the elderly and those with pre-existing chronics.

Jupp.
But its great news that even if children get it they dont seem to infect others as adults are (or at least should be) better att doing things to hinder spreading, like washings hands.

 

[oates]

On a lighter note, a man here in Lithuania has locked down his wife in the bathroom suspecting her of having Coronavirus. It required firefighters to free her up. Also, we only had one confirmed case so far to give you some context (returnee from Italy).

I feel Italy is being a bit selfless in carrying the bad rap.

 

[massi83]

I feel Italy is being a bit selfless in carrying the bad rap.

Yes. It will balance soon. Italy is testing a lot more. US numbers will skyrocket by multiples next week, as they haven't tested almost at all. In absolute numbers several thousand in US is still really small of course

 

[Beans]

https://www.ucsf.edu/news/2020/02/4...progresses-and-why-one-test-may-not-be-enough
The new coronavirus is spread through droplets and surfaces.

The principal mode of transmission is still thought to be respiratory droplets, which may travel up to six feet from someone who is sneezing or coughing. The new coronavirus isn’t believed to be an airborne virus, like measles or smallpox, that can circulate through the air. “If you have an infected person in the front of the plane, for instance, and you’re in the back of the plane, your risk is close to zero simply because the area of exposure is thought to be roughly six feet from the infected person,” said Chiu.

http://kanehealth.com/Documents/Diseases/Ebola-infections-spread-by-air-or-droplets.pdf

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Transmission_(medicine)#Airborne_infection

Airborne infection

"Airborne transmission refers to infectious agents that are spread via droplet nuclei (residue from evaporated droplets) containing infective microorganisms. These organisms can survive outside the body and remain suspended in the air for long periods of time. They infect others via the upper and lower respiratory tracts." [10] The size of the particles for airborne infections need to be < 5 μm[11]. It includes both dry and wet aerosols and thus requires usually higher levels of isolation since it can stay suspended in the air for longer periods of time. i.e., Separate ventilation systems or negative pressure environments are needed to avoid general contamination. e.g

Droplet infection

"Droplet transmission occurs when respiratory droplets generated via coughing, sneezing or talking contact susceptible mucosal surfaces, such as the eyes, nose or mouth. Transmission may also occur indirectly via contact with contaminated fomites with hands and then mucosal surfaces. Respiratory droplets are large and are not able to remain suspended in the air thus they are usually dispersed over short distances."[12] The size of the particles for droplet infections are > 5 μm[11]. Droplet infections are usually transmitted by wet droplets and thus are less likely to stay

Organisms spread by droplet transmission include respiratory viruses (e.g., influenza, parainfluenza virus, adenovirus, respiratory syncytial virus, human metapneumovirus), Bordetella pertussis, pneumococci, diphtheria, and rubella.[13]

Thanks!

 

[Abizzz]

I feel Italy is being a bit selfless in carrying the bad rap.

Can't help but agree. For all we know all the places with frequent connections to China that haven't done mass testing might be spreading it at an equal or greater rate.

 

[Classical Mechanic]

Interesting interview

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...virus-dr-jonathan-quick-q-and-a-laura-spinney

Fortunately the UK is only behind the US in the world when it comes to ’health security’ according to the rankings he’s talking about on this index.

https://www.ghsindex.org/

If the virus does become endemic then you have to wonder what the implications of that would be, would it reduce life expectancy with it being so dangerous to the elderly?

 

[oates]

Can't help but agree. For all we know all the places with frequent connections to China that haven't done mass testing might be spreading it at an equal or greater rate.

Not attempting to scaremonger but we have to examine what effect tourism from countries such as South Korea, Vietnam etc could have on disease spreading cities to come such as Paris, London, NYC, Milan, Rome etc where the lines to and from attractions are solid and block pavements where people need to cross.

 

[VorZakone]

So how does this stuff work. You get the virus, you become sick, and then...? Once you get better, can you get sick from the same virus again in a year or so?

Could there be loads of people out there who weren't bothered enough to get themselves tested?

 

[Dancfc]

My family picked a great time to go to Portugal in april.

I know a lot can change before then but right now they'd statically be safer in Portugal than the UK.

I'm a regular traveller and I will only cancel a trip if the place I'm visiting or a surrounding area has a sudden massive spread of cases and/or a lockdown.

 

[Rhyme Animal]

Swedish newspapers reporting from a WHO research group that went to China. Not a single case of children infecting other children or adults.
dont know what age they mean as children, but good news anyway.

I find this very difficult to believe to be honest...

Is there another virus in history that doesn't affect children yet is lethal to adults?

 

[onemanarmy]

Second case in Belgium, a man who traveled to France a week ago.

 

[Drifter]

I am just outside Seattle right now

Stay safe .And don't listen to the WH.

 

[BootsyCollins]

I find this very difficult to believe to be honest...

Is there another virus in history that doesn't affect children yet is lethal to adults?

I have no idea, but i have no reason to doubt the information either.

 

[africanspur]

I find this very difficult to believe to be honest...

Is there another virus in history that doesn't affect children yet is lethal to adults?

Not quite the same but chickenpox for instance is far worse to get as an adult than as a child.

Hand, foot and mouth can also be worse in adults than kids.

 

[sglowrider]

Stay safe .And don't listen to the WH.

After three-plus years, I highly doubt anyone with half a brain will listen to that cnut -- doubly so in an election year.

 

[Pexbo]

After three-plus years, I highly doubt anyone with half a brain will listen to that cnut -- doubly so in an election year.

It’s the people with half a brain who will help propagate it through the rest of the herd.

 

[11101]

I find this very difficult to believe to be honest...

Is there another virus in history that doesn't affect children yet is lethal to adults?

Influenza.

Roughly 50% of known Italian cases are asymptomatic, and probably a significant number on top of that are asymptomatic and not known. It's unlikely that kids just don't get affected by it, but the younger and fitter you are the less likely you are to show symptoms, and without symptoms you are less likely to spread it.

So how does this stuff work. You get the virus, you become sick, and then...? Once you get better, can you get sick from the same virus again in a year or so?

Could there be loads of people out there who weren't bothered enough to get themselves tested?

First question - nobody knows. People are producing antibodies to it so you would assume not, and reports of reinfections are suspect (i.e people being discharged after 2 days when its clearly not totally gone)

Second question - definitely. In the Italian town that tested everybody, 1.7% had it, but two thirds had no symptoms and would never have known.

 

[zing]

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This is good if true.

 

[Paxi]

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[Rhyme Animal]

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Not entirely true though is it... cuz if you were walking through, say, a packed shopping mall or a busy supermarket for 15 minutes, you'd obviously be better off with a mask and glasses on for that time.

Same with public transport.

Again, it just seems far too relaxed for me. Decadent even, in attitude.

 

[africanspur]

Not entirely true though is it... cuz if you were walking through, say, a packed shopping mall or a busy supermarket for 15 minutes, you'd obviously be better off with a mask and glasses on for that time.

Same with public transport.

Again, it just seems far too relaxed for me. Decadent even, in attitude.

Depends what mask you're wearing.

If you've purchased an N-95 for example, then you would undoubtedly be safer. You'd also be a bit of a nutter most likely.

If you're wearing a surgical mask, as a member of the public as well, you're likely to a) not be wearing it correctly b) not forming a tight seal around your mouth and nose, c) disposing of it incorrectly and touching the mask with your hands and d) not being very efficient in shutting out viruses regardless of the above as most are smaller in size than the pores in surgical masks.

 

[Hammerfell]

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Twelve more confirmed cases in the UK.

 

[Rhyme Animal]

Depends what mask you're wearing.

If you've purchased an N-95 for example, then you would undoubtedly be safer. You'd also be a bit of a nutter most likely.

If you're wearing a surgical mask, as a member of the public as well, you're likely to a) not be wearing it correctly b) not forming a tight seal around your mouth and nose, c) disposing of it incorrectly and touching the mask with your hands and d) not being very efficient in shutting out viruses regardless of the above as most are smaller in size than the pores in surgical masks.

Even still - if 100 people wore the mask / glasses and 100 didn't, the infection rate would undoubtedly be far lower in those that wore them.

They wouldn't be able to touch their nose / mouth / eyes.

They would obviously have more droplet / spray protection than those not wearing masks - even if not all of them were 'wearing them correctly'.

It's pretty obvious that it'd help to slow the spread and thus alleviate pressure on struggling healthcare systems.

 

[Di Maria's angel]

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Twelve more confirmed cases in the UK.

Surely its important to know where exactly.