Donald Trump said 100k will die and that's exactly how many will die.
He also discovered that you could use chloroquine to treat this infection after working long nights in his own lab.
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SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)
- Thread starter Don't Kill Bill
- Start date
He also discovered that you could use chloroquine to treat this infection after working long nights in his own lab.
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I hope they run out of fake tan and hair dye so we can get a look at his jib without the war paint.
Previous history of lung infections/pneumonia? I was reading, that lung infections in general cause long term immune suppression - thus you're much more likely to get pneumonia a 2nd time, if you've already had it once.
I think you are right mate.
Myself and my wife have had hacking coughs and had flu like symptoms for weeks.
My five year old had a temperature of 39.6C last week with the hacking cough and was nearly hospitalised with it.
111 seemed to think it was the corona virus.
Publicly calming fears on Twitter on the 24th Jan doesn't mean he isn't right about the government's slow response. In any case he was referring to it being clear in late Jan i.e. after the 23rd.
He says we knew since the last week of January that there was a virus with pandemic potential. Those "late January" tweets highlighted in that article are from the week before that.
If we check what he was tweeting at the end of January will we see him continuing to downplay the virus? Or will we see his position had changed in line with developing information that there was a virus with pandemic potential, thus making making this article's point utterly irrelevant as there is no contradiction whatsoever? Place your bets.
Bollocks as I had it 10/11 years ago and I'm 56 now
People are already losing their minds being isolated. Not just isolated, but nothing is open, the world is on pause. For how much longer will people be able to put up with this? I’m quite introverted and like my alone time, and even I’m dreading having another month of it. We all understand the reasons for social distancing, of course, but I feel that people are really going to start to struggle with it soon.
Please don't take your news from order-order alone. Here's some of his other tweets from late January that, amazingly enough, did not make it into that bullshit site's article:
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I'm not really qualified to comment though, someone else should clear it up.Bollocks as I had it 10/11 years ago and I'm 56 now
This is where I came across this - and tbf, I've only read the summary :
https://www.cell.com/immunity/fulltext/S1074-7613(17)30281-9
My brothers local hospital, Piedmont in Atlanta has a FB campaign asking people to sew homemade masks for medical personnel. Crazy!
Yes, mine are splitting and bleeding at my knuckles
Seems fairly clear
That's my hands for about 9 months of the year.
Having dogs I wash them all the time. Canadian winters don't help either. I get three or four humid months where the dryness and cracking reverses but it takes two months to heal. Then I have two months where my hands don't look like I'm in a fight club before it starts all over again.
For me I think it’s mostly down to my blood thinners. I can feel my skin tightening and my knuckles getting sore, then cuts break out. I use that Norwegian have cream but it’s only a brief respite. Happens more in the cold weather I think
That study was in Mice and only looked at up to 30 days after initial recovery (I think from a quick scan). There are also suggestions the opposite is true. I choose to believe the later
https://invisiverse.wonderhowto.com/news/your-lungs-arent-same-after-battle-with-pneumonia-0177700/
What he said is not correct?
It should be mandatory for the rest of the pandemic, regardless if you are sick or not. The problem is that we have such a big shortage of masks, that governments have to lie to tell us that masks do not help, or even are harmful, in order to avoid even more shortages of masks (cause then the doctors and nurses would be screwed). The solution needs to be to make more masks so that everyone can wear them.
100k is quite optimistic to be fair. Scaling it down to Italy's numbers, it would be around 25k (which is less than double what Italy has so far, and Italy is at best at half of the number of victims). Essentially, it is quite optimistic (and the graph said so, it being on the low end of a 95% confidence interval), it will likely be worse than that, but hopefully nowhere near Imperial College's prediction of 2.2m.
Yeah the cold weather sucks the moisture right out of them. My hands bleed almost daily from November through March.
Governments have been clear that masks are most helpful at reducing how far a sick person spreads droplets.
There is some anecdotal evidence from South Korea and Taiwan that masks can help people stay healthy but you have to know how to use them and most of us don't.
I only have a few so I'm wary of using them up too soon.
It flattens because is diminishes the percentage of growth compared with the day before. Thats why is a curve that progressively flattens. If it would grow exponentially, it would curve the other way. Actually all of them are flattening, but yesterday, with yesterday's criteria, Spain was flattening more than Italy.
I agree that there is something that doesn't add up. I think that's why he changed the criteria today. Lets see if it is more representative of the situation. New or old criteria, it was interesting nevertheless because the criteria was the same for everyone, but probably, now is fairer
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Masks only help if you happen to be in the vicinity of someone who is coughing/sneezing directly near you or you find yourself in an environment where the droplets from the cough/sneeze of a person(s) can remain suspended in the air for a substantial period of time. Neither of these scenarios are likely to occur in public right now. The only people that really need masks are the doctors/nurses/carers - primarily because they are exposed to a large number of people who will be coughing/sneezing and therefore releasing many droplets continuously into the surrounding air.
If there has been advice that masks are harmful, what was probably meant is that some masks don't offer much protection from inhalation of the droplets, if any at all e.g. surgical masks and the "harm" arises from giving people a false sense of security.
The governments have been into 'do not use masks, keep them for the healthcare workers'. Which is a valid argument considering that the healthcare workers need them more than us, and when there is a shortage of them, then the healthcare workers would be screwed (well, die, and then more people die).
Of course, masks help in not getting infected. Why do you think healthcare workers wear them in the first place? It surely is not to not infect the infected patients. The head doctor in South Korea said that masks are very important to not get infected, and even more important to not infect the others, and he showed surprise that people in the west do not wear them.
The shortage of masks is a fecking travesty. Unlike ventilators, it is easy to make them, and they are cheap. The governments had the entire February and a part of January to direct companies to make literally billions of maks. Of course, it wouldn't have solved the problem, but it would have been a part of the solution.
Well, you mentioned a way of how they help. They also help that the infected it coughing/sneezing in the mask, instead of in the air. And finally, you cannot touch your mouth and nose while you are wearing a mask. Put sunglasses and you cannot also touch your eyes. The chances of getting infected drastically decrease.
I mean, I would trust S. Korea more on this than the West. Of course, there were other reasons why they are doing much better than us, but masks were one of the main reasons (and that is what that doctor said, in fact IIRC, he said that masks was the main difference in handling the situation).
A bit contradictory there in bold.
As noted, you have to wear the mask properly for it to be effective at reducing your chance of being infected. That means making sure it is fitted to your face, covers your nose and mouth and that you do not touch it every few minutes. People aren't really capable of this from what I've seen (i.e. pulled down with their nose exposed) so there's little benefit in wearing them if you're not sick and they are better left to the healthcare workers.
The shortage is problematic but we are in unprecedented times. No jurisdiction could have forecast needing a billion masks this month.
Is there an expiry date on some of these masks?
A shortage now will only lead to an abundance sometime down the line.
A shortage now will only lead to an abundance sometime down the line.
I don't think it is contradictory. I think that it helps from not spreading it if infected, and it helps from not getting infected.
Obviously, this does not mean it ensures either of those things happening, it just minimizes (to some degree) the chances of doing so. And if everyone is wearing them, then even if it minimizes the chances by only 20%, in long run it makes a large difference.
Btw, in Italy (at least in Veneto where my family lives), the police have been going house to house giving masks for free, and mentioning that it is mandatory to wear them outside of the house.
I seen a young fella and his girlfriend crossing at the traffic lights a few days ago. Both were smirking and not wearing masks. The only people I seen that day without a mask on.
For the ones that have skin problems with their hands because of the extensive washing? What soaps are you using? I think that using different soaps (I e.g. use natural handmade soaps from the pharmacy) might be a help.
They prevent you getting infected to some degree depending on fit and other things. If you have it they limit your ability to infect others.
Not like living inside a hazmat suit but they do help.
Yes, for reusable respirators, the replacement cartridges have an expiry date. I believe the disposable ones do as well, though I can't remember. I am not sure why either need an expiry date though.
If someone is ill, it won't make any difference to them whether they wear the mask or not. Also when you are ill, the last thing you will want is to wear an uncomfortable mask as well - which may make it even more difficult to breathe. I am not sure whether you can get masks which have integrated oxygen supply to them, but if these exist they will also likely be a lot more expensive. The point then moves again towards preventing the infected patient from infecting anyone else in the vicinity. Again we reach the simplest conclusion which is that doctors/nurses/carers wear the masks.
As explained above, in an outdoor setting, this isn't really an issue.
There are images out there of him without his tanner and it can't be unseen.
I don't want to spend hours nitpicking elements in your post.
There is a shortage. The most important users need masks. These are healthcare workers and people with COVID-19. Italy is a mess. They are trying everything they can. Hopefully it works for them.
It is by definition in the center of the interval, so it would be 170k deaths (which can also be seen from the graph).
Sure, I agree.
What I said was that they had 2 months to prepare for this, and it seems that every Western government totally failed. Which is why they have now to come with this nonsense 'masks don't help you'.
I think in this instance, I won't regret it. Find somewhere on this forum to post it. No memes in here though.
Cheers
Yeah, I don't disagree that they failed. Quite miserably, too. Fingers in ears lalalalala type failure. Can't go upsetting China by considering travellers from there a risk.
Confidence intervals only tell you that X% of the time (in this case 95%), you can expect a mean calculated (from a sample of a population) to fall within that particular interval. The name "confidence" only applies to the statistical procedure and not to the actual sample. You will never know if the mean you've calculated actually lies in the interval or not. The values of the interval will also change with each sample because each sample has a different standard deviation and the confidence intervals are calculated, in part, using the standard deviation of the sample, because you don't know the standard deviation of the population.
It gets more complicated and well beyond anything I understand. Only a statistician/mathematician can really explain the entire concept well. (I don't think I've explained it well either!)
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