I don’t know of this has been discussed before, but how sustainable are government lockdowns in the long run? Let’s assume countries follow China and Italy and go in to lockdown for a prolonged time. How sustainable is this? If only grocery stores and pharmacies stay open until a vaccine is developed (usually takes more than a year), what happens to the people who can’t pay their bills? Let’s assume the lockdowns are no longer in place and people go back to their normal lives, what’s stopping this virus from causing a large outbreak once again? This is some pretty freaky stuff honestly.
SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)
- Thread starter Don't Kill Bill
- Start date
I assume the lockdown will be temporarily, only to stop the catastrophic spreading that is happening. Gradually, I assume that the restrictions will be loosened, but still keeping social distancing and recommending work from home for those that can do it. Schools is a bit difficult to know, probably there is going to be some form of e-learning for another year and a half.
China is not in lockdown, only the province centered around Wuhan is. The other regions are functional, but apparently people are cautious and keeping social distancing. Japan, Korea, Vietnam, Singapore, Hong Kong are all doing well without going on lockdown.
If everything goes well, we might expect restrictions to loosen around July/August, while in meantime the countries being prepared for a potential second wave. Also, there are already some anti-virals (or even malaria pills) which have shown good promise, with more testing going on, so we might have good news shortly.
And viruses are weird. H1N1 just went away after infecting 1 billion people or so. Maybe this one might do similar, or might mutate to something less lethal, maybe the summer might help our fight against it, etc. Also, maybe this is not as bad as we think. The estimate R0 is from 1.3 (similar to flu) to around 4. SARS and Ebola were around 2 and they were contained.
Or maybe nothing will work, and then the survivals will create herd immunity, but I have become optimistic in the last few hours.
I fear for the people who cannot financially support themselves in the long run. Too many people live paycheck to paycheck as is and their savings is pretty grim/low to begin with. I feel as if government and the banks have to implement some type of hiatus or delay for people who are going to be hit/have been hit financially in the coming days and weeks and months. If people get eviction notices, skipped pay days, etc. I fear the worst in people because it'll get desperate. To me, the financial burden and stress on many people need to be addressed sooner rather than later because by then, it'll be too late and you'll see the hoarding, panicking, and irrational fear/violence jump...obviously I don't wish this to happen, but too many people at least in the US already suffer from anxiety and have poor self-control and respect for others.
Any government imposed lockdown is going to be a tough, tough challenge for too many individuals. For one, I cannot believe they would institute a full "stay at home" mandate in the United States. Just seemingly impossible and not realistic. Need to learn how to live with this for a little bit and continue to adjust our lives accordingly until it's safe for us to go back to living "normal". Still a lot to learn and become educated about not only the virus, but how to cope with it, how to live with it, and how to approach it.
It is a huge worry. The Bill that Pelosi passed (https://docs.house.gov/billsthisweek/20200309/BILLS-116hr6201-SUS.pdf), which president thanked Mnuchin for, and Senate/McConnell could not be bothered to consider over the weekend, doesn't even scratch the surface. All it does is: provide $1 billion in food aid and extend sick leave benefits to vulnerable Americans. That is not nearly enough.
Biden said, he would have directed more than $1Trillion on direct cash aid to those who are losing jobs/income. That sounds much more what is needed. The chances of this administration doing anything like that? Pretty much zero. I can't even imagine what people are going to do on Tuesday when restaurants and clubs close in NY. Imagine waiters, security etc. Thousands of people. Just one city.
This. Which is why you're better off doing it early to maintain at least a bit of control on this.
Secondly, it buys us time. This is critical, not just time for a vaccine or an antiviral. It buys the healthcare system time to equip itself even better (we can't get more doctors/nurses but we can stop them from dying and keep them on the front lines), and also learn as a society to know exactly what works in social distancing.
Wondering what's brought about the optimism in you?
Yeah, $1B in food aid...while we see shelves empty across the country. The story behind the story is the supply chain is broken and the US has to replenish their stocks more efficiently and enact immediate rules/laws that will help ease the low supply such as consumer limitations...but again, that's an enormous cultural shift, let alone immediate change in a pandemic. Americans barely get sick days anyways, so it's a difference of days, not weeks or months. It's a nothing burger of benefits, but it's something sure.
Based on income tax filed or something that can monitor and track job income, yeah...direct cash aid put directly into people's accounts are much more effective because it's immediate (liquid) capital that they can access and spend as necessary.
Someone (government, banks, financial institutions) has to make drastic changes in the short-term to keep the country in decent terms and not let it get out of hand for many people. If the tax payers bailed out the banks, I think this is the time for the banks to support the people who need it most. But that's not how government or financial institutions work, sadly.
Watching videos of Anthony Fauci speaking about it. I know that he is not making all shots, and his job is also to reassure us *, but he is speaking sense (and he knows his shit better than anyone).
The catastrophic modelling (that I did fastly, and many other people have been doing) does not account for extreme measures that are being taken from all over the world. Heck, even just social distancing without full lockdown should do wonders, and many countries are doing more than that.
Don't get me wrong, I still think that it will be extremely ugly, worse than anything we have seen for a very long time, and countless people are gonna perish. But probably not as much as scenarios which do not account for any change of behaviour.
* For example, he says that it took 8 weeks for China to reach the peak and then go down, so probably it will happen here too. That is a bit hard to believe IMO. China did much more than social distancing and washing your hands. So inevitably, it will be worse than in Wuhan, but hopefully not as bad as Spanish flu which I have been fearing.
Road way busier than normal this morning, wtf?
Thought people might be trying to stay home.
Thought people might be trying to stay home.
Same here, holidays / stay inside order = vacations
I think, Fauci is very quickly losing credibility. Right now both US and UK seem to be on the same path as Italy, if we don't get our heads out of our asses.
This is not how to behave: https://boston.cbslocal.com/2020/03/14/coronavirus-south-boston-bars-crowded-social-distancing/
Neither is this YOLO crap:
I have to make a decision on whether to fly back to California before all flights are grounded or wait it out here in London. I'm a US citizen so they will let me in but I don't really want to be there for the peak.
Tough choice. Do you think London will handle it any better than California? I would mostly be worried about the flight/in-airport exposure itself.
I just think the US will be much worse. My wife is there, my mother, sister, brother, nieces, nephews assorted friends are here.
Surely the flights and airports will be really empty so better to wait and move then?
I am basically with the hope that this will not scale enormously because roughly 8 weeks in the govt's got to go "feck this shit" and implement draconian measures, go China style, regardless of what the country is.
That will continue after this. NO doubt will happen as it happened in the past
They aren't sustainable, it's just about flattening the peak. No vaccine on any relevant timeframe.
The only objective is to enable healthcare to cope better.
Eventually almost everyone gets it and therefore immunity.
MGM have closed down their Las Vegas casinos. Others will follow.
I honestly don't know. As a mathematician (well computer scientist), both US and UK are behaving insanely. But then, he is arguably the most knowledgeable person in that job, so he has to know better than me. At the same time, it is clear when he speaks that he is not saying exactly what he thinks, so he is trying to comfort people.
Great so now it is going to lead to planet of the apes.
The pictures from yesterday are insane. I wouldn't move right now.
I assume that people are rushing to return home, so it should be better in a few days, buy you never know.
With all these zero hour contract people going off...
How long before public sector workers are put onto statutory sick pay? If countries are going like Australia and governments are paying for all electricity/water bills, I think they’ll have to.
How long before public sector workers are put onto statutory sick pay? If countries are going like Australia and governments are paying for all electricity/water bills, I think they’ll have to.
Imagine having to choose between toilet paper and weed
Maybe they see the rolling paper as a good toilet paper substitute?
Is that not more likely to be people not using trains/public transport?
16 new cases in China (without lockdown outside of Hubei), a reduction from yesterday. 74 new cases in South Korea (without lockdown), a reduction from yesterday.
I assume that the worst has passed (at least about the first wave) in both countries. The number of cases per day in South Korea is essentially a Gaussian (graph attached).
Both countries were worse than any other country until last week, so I guess it is safe (to some degree) to assume, that it is possible to have an epilogue that does not require 70% of people to get infected or get "herd immunity". And there are templates to emulate right there on how to do this right.
I assume that the worst has passed (at least about the first wave) in both countries. The number of cases per day in South Korea is essentially a Gaussian (graph attached).
Both countries were worse than any other country until last week, so I guess it is safe (to some degree) to assume, that it is possible to have an epilogue that does not require 70% of people to get infected or get "herd immunity". And there are templates to emulate right there on how to do this right.
Same as how Indonesia kept claiming they're not affected by it. They just don't bother to do the testing until it's too late to hide that their country is in deep shit.
As a US citizen I guess you’re able to return at any point (and the US gov. would support in bringing you home if it came to it at a later date I think).
I think the risk is in the travel rather than being here or there at present. So if I was in your position I would wait until the mass return is done in a few days or so and then make my way back on a likely empty plane
Yeah, Diamond Princess is the best dataset we have so far. Word of caution on the asymptotic numbers though. According to the study they are relying on figures from Feb 20th and they define "asymptotic" as being "self assessed or tested positive before symptom onset." Maybe I missed it (or misunderstood) but it doesn't seem like there's any data on what proportion of those went on to show symptoms. Maybe there's data on that elsewhere?
I guess another optimistic thing that should be mentioned is that in addition to the asymptotic those who only progress to very light symptoms would also significantly under-report too.
I am extremely curious to know what is happening in Germany and the US. In Germany, they have around as many infected as France, but somehow only 10% of deaths. And they also have only 2 people in critical conditions (France has 400). Are Germans lying, or France has many more infected than they think they have?
The number of deaths in the US is also incredibly low, only 69 so far (half of that of France's). While the number of infected people in the US is half of that of France, US is supposed to have the most extreme case of underestimating the number of infected considering the lack of testing. On the other hand, there are only 10 people in critical conditions.
Are we talking already for many strains, some of which are almost entirely non-lethal? That just cannot be, France and Germany are just so near each other.
The only logical explanation is that Helles beer is not only the best beer, but it also protects against Covid19.
The number of deaths in the US is also incredibly low, only 69 so far (half of that of France's). While the number of infected people in the US is half of that of France, US is supposed to have the most extreme case of underestimating the number of infected considering the lack of testing. On the other hand, there are only 10 people in critical conditions.
Are we talking already for many strains, some of which are almost entirely non-lethal? That just cannot be, France and Germany are just so near each other.
The only logical explanation is that Helles beer is not only the best beer, but it also protects against Covid19.
I think you have a better chance of self isolating in the US (especially if you don't live in a major city) than London.
Yes that's what I'm thinking, but I'm not leaving my mother for a while. My return is booked for March 31st.
I thought that they tested everyone.
The study is old, but the number of casualties has not increased, while the number of infected has increased for 50 or so (it was 696 the last time I checked). No idea if the asymptotic ones showed symptoms later.
Could just be a fluke? I.e. the initially infected groups in Germany were the young ones, who they somehow managed to identify?
I'd say, if there was a European country with a hope of replicating East Asian discipline, it's probably Germany.
They are not doing intensive testing, in fact, they are doing almost no testings at all (at least in Munich). Don't know how it can be a fluke.
Indeed. My Italian friends laugh at Germans for not passing at red traffic light (while walking) even at 11 of night. Germans are very disciplined.
Also, the social distancing there would be much more natural.
They will do very well IMO. Feck me, I lived there until less than 2 months ago, why did I have to come on the stupid US?!
Such detailed posts @Revan and @Ekkie Thump. Mathematically, where do you think we are on a global scale? It appears that China and S Korea are now much more stable (and recovering) whereas the numbers and the dataset presented does not currently show the scale and the severity of infection in the UK and US. Does this mean these two countries can somehow get away without any significant/scathing impact?
I think it’s just a fluke, too.
For example if initial transmission happens in university accommodation, VS say a hospital or a care home, you would expect the mortality rates to be wildly different.
Now obviously you’d expect that over X number of cases, the averages would align eventually by maybe it just hasn’t yet. It’s not entirely improbable.
For example if initial transmission happens in university accommodation, VS say a hospital or a care home, you would expect the mortality rates to be wildly different.
Now obviously you’d expect that over X number of cases, the averages would align eventually by maybe it just hasn’t yet. It’s not entirely improbable.
Well it tastes similar to soap so they can probably use it to wash their hands.