SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)

Roger

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Maybe, but only if the other person is risking their life by being out and about anyway. If everyone is aware of the risks, nobody can complain. Dog eat dog
Just as I thought you couldn't be more of an idiot you exceed expectations, well almost. Not quite on par with the liquid microchip in the vaccine idea you put forward, in a previous post, but pretty damn close.
 

11101

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I don't think they know for sure that it is more infectious, much less 70% more infectious. The 70% figure seems to be primarily so that Boris cango into locking without admitting he should have done so a long time ago.

There are concerns that some genetic changes may make it more infectious but we aren't sure yet.

https://amp.9news.com.au/article/63439cea-1e05-4d48-aceb-3a39ed7f9dcb
The WHO said as much yesterday. They have no evidence that it is any more infectious yet and wont quote figures until they do. They also disagree that it's out of control as the UK has said. The 70% figure seems to have come from it becoming the dominant variant in a number of areas? However, there is clearly something to it or so many countries wouldn't have cut us off.

Even if it is 70% more infectious, it still needs people to be in close contact to spread. It cant fly.
 

Pogue Mahone

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So looking at that chart the fact it's winning out over the other variant is a given.

Is it causing more cases than would have otherwise been seen? Or is it replacing other variants?

The claims would suggest the former but then why has the number of cases involving previously known variants reduced so significantly?
Think of it as little fires in a field of straw. Each blade of straw is a person and the little fires are clusters of cases . These little fires usually burn themselves out, because the straw is generally quite sparse (lockdown/social distancing etc) unless a spark is thrown up and lands in a different patch of dense straw. When a spark lands in one of these patches, every blade that gets burned by the fire that spark starts will be the same variant as the spark that started it.

There’s two possible scenarios here.

One is that one of these sparks starts a particularly sparky fire, flinging sparks much further and more rapidly than usual. That will start more of these unusually sparky fires. And so on. Rinse and repeat.

The alternative scenario is that a spark lands in an area of the field where there is an unusually large patch of straw that is very closely packed together (a region where people are crap at social distancing) so the fire keeps spreading and spreading until you have a much larger fire than usual.

In both scenarios you end up with a single spark causing the majority of the burning straw at a given moment in time. One is a property of the spark, the other is a property of the straw.

Think I’ve torn the arse out of that analogy now but hopefully it makes sense!
 

balaks

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Think of it as little fires in a field of straw. Each blade of straw is a person and the little fires are clusters of cases . These little fires usually burn themselves out, because the straw is generally quite sparse (lockdown/social distancing etc) unless a spark is thrown up and lands in a different patch of dense straw. When a spark lands in one of these patches, every blade that gets burned by the fire that spark starts will be the same variant as the spark that started it.

There’s two possible scenarios here.

One is that one of these sparks starts a particularly sparky fire, flinging sparks much further and more rapidly than usual. That will start more of these unusually sparky fires. And so on. Rinse and repeat.

The alternative scenario is that a spark lands in an area of the field where there is an unusually large patch of straw that is very closely packed together (a region where people are crap at social distancing) so the fire keeps spreading and spreading until you have a much larger fire than usual.

In both scenarios you end up with a single spark causing the majority of the burning straw at a given moment in time. One is a property of the spark, the other is a property of the straw.

Think I’ve torn the arse out of that analogy now but hopefully it makes sense!
That's a good one!
 

SiRed

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Just as I thought you couldn't be more of an idiot you exceed expectations, well almost. Not quite on par with the liquid microchip in the vaccine idea you put forward, in a previous post, but pretty damn close.
I take no offence in being called an idiot from someone who labels the whole UK population as idiots for a minority of people not following the guidelines. Thanks though Rog!
 

golden_blunder

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Great question, i have no answer.
Maybe think on that. It’s not just people who want to be out and about who have to go out every day to work or to provide assistance to someone else.

another example; people who are shielding. How do you think they get their shopping? It doesn’t magically appear.
 

Eugenius

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Some suggestions that children are more susceptible to this form of the virus and therefore explaining why schools are accounting for a large part of the spread.

It's amazing how much the Johnson govt cares about keeping schools open yet has zero appetite to enforce social distancing or PPE for students/staff. Or roll out the vaccine to teachers, who are frankly being put in harms way.
 

SiRed

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Maybe think on that. It’s not just people who want to be out and about who have to go out every day to work or to provide assistance to someone else.

another example; people who are shielding. How do you think they get their shopping? It doesn’t magically appear.
Well since the start of the pandemic i have been getting my food shopping online and delivered. I have never done it before but i cant imagine myself in one of those supermarkets ever again. Its so much easier AND if i buy something that they dont have in stock, they send me a better version of what i wanted. So 1 positive of all this is it has revolutionised how i do my shopping.
 

LARulz

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That's a very sticky situation. Agree with samsky's advice. Try contacting your local authorities, these being such extraordinary circumstances maybe they'll extend the visa. Although I know immigration services in the UK are a bitch to deal with.
Yeah that is definitely the plan. But unfortunately the new hurdle of getting her in the country has cropped up :(

I know this variant is very bad, not denying it. But the wording Boris and co used (when this has been around a couple months and already global) was ridiculous. I am convinced they only said it like that to make themselves not look bad for 'cancelling Christmas'.... but forgot the rest of the world will pounce and make us the scapegoat
 

golden_blunder

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Well since the start of the pandemic i have been getting my food shopping online and delivered. I have never done it before but i cant imagine myself in one of those supermarkets ever again. Its so much easier AND if i buy something that they dont have in stock, they send me a better version of what i wanted. So 1 positive of all this is it has revolutionised how i do my shopping.
Do you think all those people picking your shopping and delivering it to you want to be out during a pandemic?
 

F-Red

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It's amazing how much the Johnson govt cares about keeping schools open yet has zero appetite to enforce social distancing or PPE for students/staff.
Keeping schools open is as much about keeping jobs going than anything else, as soon as schools close it then forces a childcare option at home for parents, and not everyone can work from home. It's an illusion to believe that they have some consideration for children's education.
 

Inigo Montoya

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The WHO said as much yesterday. They have no evidence that it is any more infectious yet and wont quote figures until they do. They also disagree that it's out of control as the UK has said. The 70% figure seems to have come from it becoming the dominant variant in a number of areas? However, there is clearly something to it or so many countries wouldn't have cut us off.

Even if it is 70% more infectious, it still needs people to be in close contact to spread. It cant fly.
The BMJ published figures which showed that 1108 cases out of over 1.5million cases recorded from late September could be attributed to the new variant. That’s 0.07%.They also revealed that there have been 4000 variants in that time. Even Hancock stated in Parliament that there was no reason to suggest that it was the cause of recent spikes in positive tests.
 

Classical Mechanic

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Keeping schools open is as much about keeping jobs going than anything else, as soon as schools close it then forces a childcare option at home for parents, and not everyone can work from home. It's an illusion to believe that they have some consideration for children's education.
Of course they care about children's education. If you accuse them of only caring about the economy then an educated population is essential to that.
 

noodlehair

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Yet despite their deadly incompetence they will get voted in again
Going by this thread and people's willingness and actually bizarre determination to blame and judge other people, rather than look at the ones making the decisions, I think it's likely they will be.

There is only one place to point the finger at this point. The first time round you could put the mistakes down to all the unknown factors with the virus and the fact any plan was basically a guessing game. This time they have had the data and information to make informed decisions and yet here at least we are somehow in a worse position than in March both in terms of the lives that will be lost and people's jobs, wellbeing, etc.
 

Schmeichel's Cartwheel

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I’m not locking down again. We’ve done it twice already & we have had 9 months of restrictions. It’s clearly not working.

This governing is not robbing me of my late twenties. House piss ups it is.

feck Boris.
 

Fluctuation0161

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So if you're saying it's fine to allow household mixing on the provision that they lockdown after Christmas, then ultimately I suspect you'll be in support of the strategy because I think that's a very likely outcome. NI have led the way on that because the situation is grave enough to make that borderline politically palatable, and they're just going to communicate it differently in the other nations. It was first suggested by the Welsh First minister a good while back. In which case this would be quibbling about communications. If that is the case then yep my apologies, I misunderstood!
Communications are absolutely vital for public compliance, understating and controlling the virus. I would not describe it as a quibble! :)

point is the outcome has changed, and although you are guessing the outcome will be lockdown after Xmas, once again the communications are mixed, unclear and will not be strategic, but one again last minute changes.

Initially, it was announced that lockdown eased from 2nd December and we had 5 days mixing over Xmas. Now that has changed. It was clear that announcing both of those eases in restrictions would be a disaster, even without a new strain. Look at hospital admission stats in the run up to that announcement and beyond.

I struggle to think how the UK govenrment could have handled this any worse. Highest number of deaths in Europe and worst economic hit.
 

Wilt

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Some suggestions that children are more susceptible to this form of the virus and therefore explaining why schools are accounting for a large part of the spread.

It's amazing how much the Johnson govt cares about keeping schools open yet has zero appetite to enforce social distancing or PPE for students/staff. Or roll out the vaccine to teachers, who are frankly being put in harms way.
Keeping the schools open is beyond stupid.

There is to be no mixing outside your household, but you must still send your children to school ....feck off Johnson.
 

Fluctuation0161

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Aside from the worst government and prime minister in history doing a terrible job, what you've posted above is also part of the reason why the infection rates here are so high and the worst in Europe.

We're in tier 4 where I am, my family made the decision earlier in the week to cancel our Christmas plans, it's just not worth it.

The people who live in the house at the back have been constantly flouting, they had people over yesterday even though we were in tier 3 at that time. If I see anymore people over there I'm tempted to call the police (Although I think the Mrs will probably try to stop me)
Personally, I've not even been into a shop since March and I'm very careful.

But at what point will the mixed messages from our government be held at least partly accountable for peoples actions? People have lost trust in the government advice.

- "virus will be under control in 12 weeks"

-"virus will be under control by Xmas"

- They said "It is your duty to go back to the office" in August was it? Back out by September.

-Eat out to help out, government subsidised public mixing indoors without a mask.

-Ease lockdown from December 2nd and prepare for a 5 day Christmas. Last week ridiculing anyone who would "cancel Christmas", then days later doing just that.
 

F-Red

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Of course they care about children's education. If you accuse them of only caring about the economy then an educated population is essential to that.
I'm talking specifically in the reason for keeping schools open at the minute, not in the wider realms of their policy on education. The only reason schools are open is that the parents can go to work, as soon as you close schools then parents have to make a decision. They're not keeping schools open because they think it's the right thing to do for children/young adults. Otherwise they wouldn't have closed in the first lockdown.
 

Eugenius

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Keeping schools open is as much about keeping jobs going than anything else, as soon as schools close it then forces a childcare option at home for parents, and not everyone can work from home. It's an illusion to believe that they have some consideration for children's education.
We can debate the relative merits of keeping them open, but at the moment the only protection against the spread in classrooms are 'bubbles' (which are actually bubbles of 100s when you consider the kids and their households) and opening windows in classrooms. It's literally a fecking joke - no masks, no social distancing etc.
 

Player Red

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I’m not locking down again. We’ve done it twice already & we have had 9 months of restrictions. It’s clearly not working.

This governing is not robbing me of my late twenties. House piss ups it is.

feck Boris.
The government's handling of this has been a clusterf*ck, but if people didn't have this attitude we wouldn't have a problem.
 

Salt Bailly

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Just as I thought you couldn't be more of an idiot you exceed expectations, well almost. Not quite on par with the liquid microchip in the vaccine idea you put forward, in a previous post, but pretty damn close.
New from McCain.
 

MikeUpNorth

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I’m not locking down again. We’ve done it twice already & we have had 9 months of restrictions. It’s clearly not working.

This governing is not robbing me of my late twenties. House piss ups it is.

feck Boris.
The reason we (and every other country in the West) keep having lockdowns is precisely because it has proved to be the only thing that seems to work in controlling the spread of the virus.
 

Shakesy

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Can't remember a formal definition, but informally both terms are used interchangeably in my microbio lab. Especially given that we're dealing with a virus here, I can't imagine a difference, an the article doesn't get into it. From that article, the way the professor is talking, a strain seems to be a variant with more changes than a normal variant?
From what I read there is no widely agreed definition as to what constitutes a new virus strain, so strain and varient seem to be used interchangeably. I could be wrong of course.

@Pogue Mahone @Tony Babangida @berbatrick - any info re. strain vs variant?

Edit: just seen that @berbatrick has already answered.
Thanks!

What a waste of an article. Tomato, tomato.
 

Roger

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I take no offence in being called an idiot from someone who labels the whole UK population as idiots for a minority of people not following the guidelines. Thanks though Rog!
Your'e wasting your time If you think I'm going to dignify your childish moments with a response. I've got better things to do and my turkey is arriving today. Enjoy your dog.
 

Schmeichel's Cartwheel

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The government's handling of this has been a clusterf*ck, but if people didn't have this attitude we wouldn't have a problem.
I followed the first 2. How much of my life am I expected to give up? Am I to just sit at home & go to work for years without seeing my friends or family? What’s the answer here? Because there doesn’t seem to be one.
 

Schmeichel's Cartwheel

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Assuming you’re serious..

why do you think it hasn’t worked?
If they worked why do we need another one?

If you’re happy to give up years of your life that’s fine, I’m not. The mental health repercussions of 3 lockdowns is going to be drastic on an awful lot of people. I’m quite lucky I live with my girlfriend, not everybody has that, are people who live alone just expected to spend the rest of their lives alone?
 

MikeUpNorth

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I followed the first 2. How much of my life am I expected to give up? Am I to just sit at home & go to work for years without seeing my friends or family? What’s the answer here? Because there doesn’t seem to be one.
At the moment, the hope is that the vaccines will allow us to slowly open up society again over the next 6-12 months, and reach a new equilibrium where the virus doesn't grow uncontrollably again.

If the vaccines (or their take-up) do not prove effective enough to allow that to happen, then I think it would be the time to engage with your point and have a real debate on the risk/reward of long-term restrictions and what is tolerable.
 

Schmeichel's Cartwheel

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At the moment, the hope is that the vaccines will allow us to slowly open up society again over the next 6-12 months, and reach a new equilibrium where the virus doesn't grow uncontrollably again.

If the vaccines (or their take-up) do not prove effective enough to allow that to happen, then I think it would be the time to engage with your point and have a real debate on the risk/reward of long-term restrictions and what is tolerable.
I haven’t seen my parents in over 6 months. The government is not going to stop seeing them over Christmas. If you’re pro-lockdown good for you, I’m done with it. I’ve followed the guidelines for nearly a year & we’re back at square one.
 

Schmeichel's Cartwheel

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That is the worst logic I have ever seen.
The first one was working & we opened up too early. Asking people to lockdown for the 3rd time in 6 months is not going to work. People are done with it now. Doing another lockdown will do nothing. The more times we go into lockdown the less people will follow it.

You may be happy to follow it. I’m not now. I’ve lost nearly a year of my life & we’re no closer to a resolution. Done with it.
 

MikeUpNorth

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I haven’t seen my parents in over 6 months. The government is not going to stop seeing them over Christmas. If you’re pro-lockdown good for you, I’m done with it. I’ve followed the guidelines for nearly a year & we’re back at square one.
Mate, I get it. I haven't seen my family in even longer than you, and it is painful. I also accept that there will come a point where people will have just had enough and stop complying with restrictions, and for some people that point will arrive sooner than others.

For me, the vaccine is literally being rolled out as we speak. 500k people have been vaccinated in the UK now. Giving up now would be like quitting a marathon in the final couple of miles.
 

Wumminator

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The first one was working & we opened up too early. Asking people to lockdown for the 3rd time in 6 months is not going to work. People are done with it now. Doing another lockdown will do nothing. The more times we go into lockdown the less people will follow it.

You may be happy to follow it. I’m not now. I’ve lost nearly a year of my life & we’re no closer to a resolution. Done with it.
We are incredibly close to a resolution.
Keep at it. We’ve got this very bleak winter to get through and then we are there.