Assets would remain with the nations remaining in the UK, they are UK assets. Scotland having decided to leave them behind, what was it the EU said, you can leave but you don't get to take the furniture with you. Agree them pre referendum, so everyone knows what is at stake before they vote.
Scottish Politics
- Thread starter Cheesy
- Start date
I get your point now. It doesn't seem to me to be provocative any more than pointing out in what way you believe your political enemies' policies to be ineffective under normal circumstances but fair enough.
Well, that's going to be a pretty contentious point especially as, if you follow that logic, everything in Scotland is a UK asset. If you choose to leave a marriage you get feck all seems a fairly, to use @Counterfactual 's language, provocative position. I'm sure it's the one that'll be taken, if ever it comes to it.
Disentangling the UKs assets would clearly be a challenge, and obviously contentious.
military assets would be interesting. It certainly used to be the case all of our nuclear assets our held in Scotland.
there would ultimately be some sort of transition. Hopefully we don’t get that far…
military assets would be interesting. It certainly used to be the case all of our nuclear assets our held in Scotland.
there would ultimately be some sort of transition. Hopefully we don’t get that far…
It gets worse,
UK debt is 2131.2 billion pounds. Scotland is for the sake of the math 10 % of the UK per population. Just the 213 billion pounds to pay before they leave then.
in a similar way to Brexit - it’s impossible to outline exactly what the terms will be. It can only be the premise that is proposed and outlined. and as we’ve seen with Brexit the detail takes years.
Scotland wouldn’t need to pay any debt before they left, it would become a liability. The terms of that liability may be interesting, depending upon their assets and credit rating.
As we have seen with Brexit, it is best to iron out those details pre vote or you don't know what you are voting for. Like I say I don't want to be paying for it so best off getting started with those details because they can really bite you in the arse.
Interesting would also be the financial settlement ... presumably the UK would want some funds (as did the EU) to settle their share of national debt... futire pemsions etc
I am not sure these would be negotiated pre -referendum - I agree that in an ideal world they would be but given how difficult these negotiations were with the Eu and how long they took im just not sure how practical it would be to engage with that before the referendum - equally access to nuclear bases etc - trade and border rules - and probably something to do with fish would also no doubt be big stumbling blocks to a negotiation that for people to make the best informed decision should be agreed beforehand but that would probably require several years of negotiations which does not fit with the SNp proposed timeline of introducing legistlation in early 2022 with a vote in 2023 and the westminister line of no authority for a referendum
As such its hard to imagine such negotiations (given their complexity) happening within a timeframe that works - and thats even without the whole scotland will (probaby) want to rejoin the EU but will that involve using the Euro or not and scotland technically not being able to discuss these terms with the EU because they are part of the UK and the UK wont give permission for them to have these talks (imagine Spains reaction if the UK government started direct negotations with catalonia on a trade deal to be ratified once they becoe independent)
Basically this will result in a lot of bluster and unprovable claims (probably plastered on the side of a bus) from both sides - and thats if there is even a referendum which I suspect at the moment the Government would simply de-legitamise by telling remain supporters not to vote as its not authorised (basically what spain did in catelonia)
I actually think the SNP's best chance of a binding referendum comes with the next election and a hung parliament where it could be their price for propping up a labour government (along with voting through massive boundry changes should scotland leave)
Unfortuantly there is very little chance of an informed vote though
but as we’ve seen - the massive effort, and political will and lengthy negations mean that it’s obviously not possible to do so and get anything worthwhile and binding prior to a referendum.
it has to be, and will be done afterwards if we come to it.
There is every chance they renege on debt repayments though. They will have to sort out their own currency to borrow to pay it off and the value of that currency would be volatile. Studies suggest tax rises and spending cuts would both be needed to underpin the value of Scotland's new currency and there is no appetite for either. If they go under and fail to repay their debt that is the rest of the UK having to pay for Scottish independence. Which wouldn't be fair and I don't agree to run that risk just because some people held a referendum I didn't get a vote in and decided to leave.
Its for the SNP to lay out how they resolve their problems not the UK. They want to leave its on them.
It would probably be a lot easier now since UK is out of the EU.
I agree with much of this.
I assume the SNP would expect their currency medium to long term to be the Euro and that leads to all manner of ramifications. It'll be a shit storm of course.
Your point about a referendum is a good and I guess the counter response would be that when you're country's vote is outweighed 10 to 1 by another country then that's what every referendum and general election is akin to.
It'll be different but I can't see how it'd be easier. The whole thing is, and will be, a political and logistical nightmare.
Even before you get to the issues of debt, and either being beholden to the Bank of England or to the Eurozone, Scotland's current deficit is almost 10% of GDP. One of the conditions of joining the EU is a deficit of less than 3% of GDP. How the hell does Scotland get close to that without enforcing austerity?
And why would you want to enforce austerity to get into the EU, where 15% of Scottish exports currently go, when over 60% of its exports go to the rest of the UK? Scotland's economy is heavily service-based, and there's no market in the EU for those services.
And why would you want to enforce austerity to get into the EU, where 15% of Scottish exports currently go, when over 60% of its exports go to the rest of the UK? Scotland's economy is heavily service-based, and there's no market in the EU for those services.
Nationalism? Why would Kosovo or any others like Uyghurs want to be independent?
I suppose this is where the third option was always more attractive to me; Devo Max. The complete devolution of powers with the except of foreign affairs, from what I remember. The West Lothian question was obviously a problem though because Devo Max meant that Scottish politicians could still vote on decisions that no longer affected them, but you'd hope that rules could be put in place to block Scottish MPs from being able to cast votes on subjects related to purely just England, Wales and/or NI.
Keeps the union going, moves the UK into more of a federal system. Filled with a million different issues like the alternatives but still viable in my small minded opinion.
Keeps the union going, moves the UK into more of a federal system. Filled with a million different issues like the alternatives but still viable in my small minded opinion.
If you elect to join a country with a population bigger than yours then you risk being a minority within it, yes. If that is a major problem for you then electing to join an organization a 100 times bigger could lead to problems further down the road too.
For the euro issues I'd read hobbers post, which sums it up.
Scotland voted SNP knowing they would push for independence, all the problems with that process rest with the SNP to resolve and the Scottish people to pay for it. Its not my, the rest of the UK's or England's problem.
Hasn't every country basically been fecked for ages after leaving the UK/British Empire, America aside?
Thing is, how many would prefer it didn't happen?
Thing is, how many would prefer it didn't happen?
Just out of interest, how far is Scotland from "Devo Max" now?
Same, I would vote for devo max.
From the Independent because I'm lazy
Currently, Scotland create its own laws regarding: agriculture, forestry and fisheries, education and training, environment, health and social services, housing, law and order (including the licensing of air weapons), local government, sport and the arts, tourism and economic development, and many aspects of transport.
Meanwhile, Westminster retained the powers to decide upon: benefits and social security, immigration, defence, foreign policy, employment, broadcasting, trade and industry, nuclear energy, oil, coal, gas and electricity, consumer rights, data protection, and the Constitution.
would be interesting to see how this would poll
suspect a in / out type question is more likey than a 3 way question on a referendum
Also suspect the SNP talks of rejoining the EU wouldnt be an optuion under such a scenario
gut feel it might carry enough votes to pass if it was on the ballot but the SNP wont want it on the ballott and the uk Government does not even want a ballott - but if they have to have one i suspect they would want a clear in / out as in the brexit referedum (because as we all know brexit means brexit ... why confuse people with things like customs unions and single markets )
That was already addressed, I believe...
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/English_votes_for_English_laws
Ah, yes you're right Hari. We smash faces in this thread too?
The EU does not control the Government or policies of its member states in a reasonably comparable way to UK government and Scotland but, of course, joining large federalised political blocks comes with issues. As for electing to join, the Union of the crowns is a complicated matter and one that very much was not considering voting blocks in a representative parliament. It was, and is, however a Union not a surrogacy.
There are clearly complicated challenges regarding the EU and other aspects of independence.Only a fool would deny it.
It's a strange world where the most reasonable solutions to complex problems get ignored.
Do boreworms have a face?
If thats the case, then the debt is also the sole property of the remaining nations. Something that sticks in the craw of many a unionist.
I think it'd likely win but a three way vote would split the non Unionist vote and therefore it'll never happen. Oh for a World where such nuance actually worked.
anything you can smash can have a face if you just believe *insert Mel Gibson face paint photo here*Secretly, everyone is reading the D&D thread and just waiting for an opportunity to slot a reference in.
(I know I am)
(can't think of a reference for this post)
(but I can add a third line with parentheses)
Rightly so. A compromise would need to be reached and I fear it would not be an amicable negotiation.
Edit: Also much hostility would be stoked by our political Thunderdome
Take an INT check then.Secretly, everyone is reading the D&D thread and just waiting for an opportunity to slot a reference in.
(I know I am)
(can't think of a reference for this post)
(but I can add a third line with parentheses)
Pretty sure I failed my INT check in this thread.
I think it depends how you constructed the ballott (is it 3 options winner takes all, or single transferable vote... how many options are on the ballot? - one round of voting or seperate final round for the top two options) - but as I say i think the UK government and the SNP both probably favour a clear in / out full independence binary vote if there is going to be a vote.
Caf forget that deep down tooktook loudmouth Scotsman who knows bugger all.Secretly, everyone is reading the D&D thread and just waiting for an opportunity to slot a reference in.
(I know I am)
(can't think of a reference for this post)
(but I can add a third line with parentheses)
I think @Reiver and @Cheimoon mentioned the federal system. That's something I could genuinely see working well across the UK. Not just Scotland but in the North of England, Midlands, Wales, Northern Ireland etc. People like me aren't against the union, far from it. It's something to be proud of but only if it suits everyone, and it clearly doesn't. Too many in the country (UK) feel ignored by a centralised government that moves further and further away from the cultural and social identities that make up the nation.
For example, we're stuck with whatever immigration laws Westminster pass and it looks like we're becoming more and more isolationist. I think polling shows that Scotland supports more immigration, and it makes sense. There's obviously patches where you get racist loons waving their saltires about but for the most part, at least in my area, communities aren't sectioned off by nationality. You're either a gid cnut or a plain old cnut, regardless of where your family is from.
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If Scotland went the UDI route then it could, but they would still need their own currency and Spain is never letting Scotland into the EU after that move. Even Sturgeon ruled it out as an option because its a terrible idea.
Like I say Scotland has voted for this, its their problem they hold no cards at all that I can see.
I'm sure you're quite right.