Difference between Football and baseball is that football is more dynamic, more variables and x number of times harder to quantify. Baseball is a stop/start game, with fever variables and fairly doable to quantify as showcased in the movie.
But parts of the method used in Moneyball is applied in football, and have been for some time.
The point of that post if I am not mistaken is FSG actually understand aspect of sport club running on their own. Not delegate all responsibilities to somebody else whose specialist is in finance.
Yep, that's exactly how I see it. Give OGS our players at the start of next season & I seriously doubt United would get anywhere the same results as we've achieved this one (90 plus points & another CL final). We have a good structure in place behind the scenes, but without the right man in place to put all the pieces together, then it won't work.
Yep, that's exactly how I see it. Give OGS our players at the start of next season & I seriously doubt United would get anywhere the same results as we've achieved this one (90 plus points & another CL final). We have a good structure in place behind the scenes, but without the right man in place to put all the pieces together, then it won't work.
Nobody denies Klopp work, and he fit into the culture. The point is the progress to get the manager in: contacting, selling the club project (realistic, no bubble upselling then fail to keep the promise); ability to understand the manager style, and independently scout the right players that fit the managers' style (Salah).
Look at this club recent events: OGS being permanent was not the same as what was briefed priorly regarding a careful assessment of candidate. Questionable contract renewal of players at best you can say fit the style of Mourinho than any progressive football. The wage looks terrible which may hinder future renewal, new signings (price hike).
Any new manager, player is a gambling. Most peopl ain't turning on OGS, but the scattergun approach hasty decisions. 6 years post SAF retirement, and it looks going the same direction.
The point of that post if I am not mistaken is FSG actually understand aspect of sport club running on their own. Not delegate all responsibilities to somebody else who is specialist is in finance.
The guy you quoted called what FSG was doing Moneyball. Which it is not.
Your point on the other hand is true, and something we could only hope for our owners to understand.
Difference is Klopp. He's turned Liverpool into the fittest team in the world. There's no other team that runs and presses as much as that team over 90 mins. And they've brought in players that are hungry and fit into Klopp's system.
if it was simply fitness then i have no doubt ole could replicate the process & some.
the real stand out for me during klopp’s tenure is the unprecedented success of their signings.
citeh have been very successful but for every ederson they have a bravo; aguero there’s an adebayor.
the true success of this iteration of pool is their scouting & scouting; tgeir success rate is admirable. we need to determine a system & build from there; nothing wrong with cutting losses if there’s a plan to rectify the mistakes but i doubt we have the people capable of making the right decisions.
it’s widely reported we’ll spend £200mil(ish) this summer, klopp has been with them 4 seasons; if we spent that on average for 4 years & bought correctly we’d be challenging & some but we won’t.
we’ll buy a £100mil player to satisfy the socials & still see ashley young at full back next season.
They clearly have an excellent analytics/scouting department for identifying players to fit their system. It's not luck that players like Salah come good, they'll have looked at underlying numbers like in the article below when he signed:
Since Jose started, that's only really applicable to Pogba and Sanchez. With Pogba I imagine the romance of his return was what would have appealed most to emotional Ed. Sanchez maybe, but see below.
Woodward boasted (in summary) that "Sanchez signing generated 75% more social media interactions than Neymar to PSG. Set new Jan record for shirt sales. Three times previous best." It may be an exaggeration to say it’s why we bought him but it speaks of misplaced priorities at the top. Generallly you’d wait until a player performs on the pitch before giving yourself a pat on the back.
@MoskvaRed Can you remember exactly when that was said? If it was some time after Sanchez started it may just have been a desperate attempt to put a positive spin on a disastrous signing.
Since Jose started, that's only really applicable to Pogba and Sanchez. With Pogba I imagine the romance of his return was what would have appealed most to emotional Ed. Sanchez maybe, but see below.
@MoskvaRed Can you remember exactly when that was said? If it was some time after Sanchez started it may just have been a desperate attempt to put a positive spin on a disastrous signing.
Since Jose started, that's only really applicable to Pogba and Sanchez. With Pogba I imagine the romance of his return was what would have appealed most to emotional Ed. Sanchez maybe, but see below.
Thats also quite an amount we've spent on those too. Dont forget Falcao, Schweinsteiger neither who was big names, but probably over the hill and we were mostly buying a name.
Hindsight is a beautiful thing and i like Zlatan, but it was no long term solution, and I think Ed was wetting his pants too from a commercial aspect. Seems like some signings have been vetoed from Ed also. Perisic for instance. We definitely have gone for highly commercial players
They happen to be good players also, but with all of them, they've played better elsewhere and haven't peaked at United.
Its kind of a bad trait that players come here for the money. If they do, it might be an indicator that money is more important than success too and that they're not really hungry. Not in all cases, but we've been a nice paycheck for a lot of mediocre players for a long time.
Thats also quite an amount we've spent on those too. Dont forget Falcao, Schweinsteiger neither who was big names, but probably over the hill and we were mostly buying a name.
Hindsight is a beautiful thing and i like Zlatan, but it was no long term solution, and I think Ed was wetting his pants too from a commercial aspect. Seems like some signings have been vetoed from Ed also. Perisic for instance. We definitely have gone for highly commercial players
They happen to be good players also, but with all of them, they've played better elsewhere and haven't peaked at United.
Its kind of a bad trait that players come here for the money. If they do, it might be an indicator that money is more important than success too and that they're not really hungry. Not in all cases, but we've been a nice paycheck for a lot of mediocre players for a long time.
Maybe. Schweinsteiger and Zlatan were LvG and Jose's golden boys though; I can't believe Ed forced them onto unwilling managers. I think both were brought in by the managers as much for their on- and off-field leadership qualities as their footballing ability; it was unfortunate that they both could't wait to get away from Manchester and their teammates the moment they got injured.
Difference is Klopp. He's turned Liverpool into the fittest team in the world. There's no other team that runs and presses as much as that team over 90 mins. And they've brought in players that are hungry and fit into Klopp's system.
It's delusion to think Klopp wouldn't have United challenging in spite of Woodward, just as it would be to say SAF wouldn't have Liverpool challenging in spite of Gillet and Hicks. Same applies to Guardiola and Pochettino. They would buy the players to fit their system and because they are top managers they will hit more than they misss. Simple as.
It's delusion to think Klopp wouldn't have United challenging in spite of Woodward, just as it would be to say SAF wouldn't have Liverpool challenging in spite of Gillet and Hicks. Same applies to Guardiola and Pochettino. They would buy the players to fit their system and because they are top managers they will hit more than they misss. Simple as.
Woodward couldn't persuade Klopp in the first place, just like SAF wouldn't stand Gillet and Hicks.
And in Klopp case, as Liverppolmfan pointed out themselves, Klopp trusted the transfer committee to deal with the transfer. That was the case with Dortmund time too. Some signing like Salah is not Klopp initial intention.
Woodward couldn't persuade Klopp in the first place, just like SAF wouldn't stand Gillet and Hicks.
And in Klopp case, as Liverppolmfan pointed out themselves, Klopp trusted the transfer committee to deal with the transfer. That was the case with Dortmund time too. Some signing like Salah is not Klopp initial intention.
Persuading has nothing to do with the players each manager would target. If you get a top manager in a top team he will buy players to fit his system and most of them them will perform well. He doesn't have to handpick all the players. He only needs believe they can fit within his system. This isn't football manager. The board, CEO, sporting director, and scouts don't choose the style of play.
A sporting director will never be as impactful as a manager. Ever. It's a way to deflect blame from the failure of the manager. Moyes wasn't a top manger. LVG has a good CV and had a good WC but ultimately looked past it. Mourinho has a good CV but he confirmed was everyone saw in Chelsea: He's finished as a top level manager.
Fenway Sports Group hired Damien Comoli as sporting director who was great for Spurs (Bale, Modric, and Berbatov) but not as good for Liverpool (signed Suarez but responsible for players like Carroll and Downing). If I'm not mistaken, FSG-owned Liverpool has had a transfer committee for a long time. Who was lauding their great structure at the time? Nobody.
If United get a top level manager, the transfers will work themselves out.
Persuading has nothing to do with the players each manager would target. If you get a top manager in a top team he will buy players to fit his system and most of them them will perform well. He doesn't have to handpick all the players. He only needs believe they can fit within his system. This isn't football manager. The board, CEO, sporting director, and scouts don't choose the style of play.
A sporting director will never be as impactful as a manager. Ever. It's a way to deflect blame from the failure of the manager. Moyes wasn't a top manger. LVG has a good CV and had a good WC but ultimately looked past it. Mourinho has a good CV but he confirmed was everyone saw in Chelsea: He's finished as a top level manager.
Fenway Sports Group hired Damien Comoli as sporting director who was great for Spurs (Bale, Modric, and Berbatov) but not as good for Liverpool (signed Suarez but responsible for players like Carroll and Downing). If I'm not mistaken, FSG-owned Liverpool has had a transfer committee for a long time. Who was lauding their great structure at the time? Nobody.
Woodward was clearly aiming for a faux Galaticos team, Adult Disney Land in another word. Manager like Klopp can disagree and decline the offer.
It's the contrary. The DOF help setting up foundation for the managers to come in. Some signings requires much timing to pull off. Contacts may need to be kept for years before circumstances allow players to become available. Scouts, transfer committee doesn't just go on vacation until the right manager come and start working. There are players that would be bought regardless managers since they fit the core etho of the clubs.
Ypu must have short memories. Liverpool challenge for the league under a Rodgers. That transfer committee got them Sterling, Coutinho. Sturridge worked for sometimes. Salad was said a long term target. Firmino was an important player for Klopp. Liverpool financial situation means that they have to work on cheaper target. They did hell of a job without Klopp balancing the book to reinvest.
Remember how Liverpool got good fee for even their flops. Sakho, Benteke. Even they got like 20 mil for Carroll where we got nothing for some cases just to offload some of our players.
Thi said help the (new) managers greatly. It eased the need the manager who to deal unrealistic expectation with previous manager's mess. People here (me included may hate it, but Liverpool fan net spend has a point on a whole scheme of the club operation. Here we have Woodward shifting the blame that we spent money on managers, when there is a strong case of interference in profile of players. Marketing value overshadows the work ethnic when recruiting players.
Klopp didn't choose Liverpool instead of United nor did he say he rejected United because of Woodward's sales pitch. From all accounts it was a matter of timing:
United told Klopp that it was a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity with them and, also, that he would not have the resources to challenge Bayern who were reasserting their dominance of the German game. But Klopp said he was committed to Dortmund and the timing was not right for him.
It's the contrary. The DOF help setting up foundation for the managers to come in. Some signings requires much timing to pull off. Contacts may need to be kept for years before circumstances allow players to become available. Scouts, transfer committee doesn't just go on vacation until the right manager come and start working. There are players that would be bought regardless managers since they fit the core etho of the clubs.
Ypu must have short memories. Liverpool challenge for the league under a Rodgers. That transfer committee got them Sterling, Coutinho. Sturridge worked for sometimes. Salad was said a long term target. Firmino was an important player for Klopp. Liverpool financial situation means that they have to work on cheaper target. They did hell of a job without Klopp balancing the book to reinvest.
I actually went back further than you. Their transfer committee was also responsible for great signings such as Andy Carroll, Charlie Adam, Downing, Benteke, Markovic, Aspas, Karius, etc. Klopp did a hell of job, the transfer committee bought the players to fit his system, just like they did for all of the other Liverpool managers that failed before him. Brendan Rodger did well in that one off season because he's a good manager, and ultimately failed to churn out consistent results b/c he isn't a great one.
All United need is a good manager and they will recruit the correct players.
Id say so. Less of a mess for a new manager to clean up when he starts, as there are continuity in signings, as the players for the previous manager also are able to fit Into Klopps system. (Milner, Henderson, Firmino, Can, etc)
Id say so. Less of a mess for a new manager to clean up when he starts, as there are continuity in signings, as the players for the previous manager also are able to fit Into Klopps system. (Milner, Henderson, Firmino, Can, etc)
I'd say a mixture of both. I guess he trimmed out the players who didn't know how to play fast technical football. (Benteke, Sakho, Skrtel). Not sure if this was Rodgers who wanted these, but surely Rodgers would benefit from better ball-carriers too, and maybe not even fall so low and get sacked. Probably a question of pragmatism in the transfermarket.
Klopp shipped out Benteke, Ibe, Allen, Skrtel, Balotelli, Kolo Toure, Luis Alberto, Wisdom (loan), Sakho (loan), Markovic (loan) the next season
Went on to use Sturridge, Firmino, Origi, (Ings), Can, Henderson, Lallana, Milner, Gomez (18), Clyne, Moreno from the squad he inherited.
All in all not really any problem makers, or if there are, then they are moved on (Balotelli - was also on loan already when he took over)
Twas a long process, to get in new faces, which is also why we should have long term patience with a new manager (If he's good).
Sometimes a great player just isn't available, also when you're in a slump, but yet the manager is still judged on that and ultimately fired. That's why patience is quite important for us. Liverpool had a lot of patience at one point with Klopp where he came 4th in the league, and not much was going on - when you look back it looks like a time where there was standstill and you didn't know whether the project would go into success or simply crack up.
Klopp wanted a CB in summer 2017 but Liverpool failed to get him one. They wanted Van Djik but he wasn't available and they decided that there wasn't anyone else available that would be worth spending money on.
So why didn't Klopp throw a massive strop, sabotage Liverpool's season and get himself sacked by December? Surely that's the natural thing to do in a situation like this?
I'd say a mixture of both. I guess he trimmed out the players who didn't know how to play fast technical football. (Benteke, Sakho, Skrtel). Not sure if this was Rodgers who wanted these, but surely Rodgers would benefit from better ball-carriers too, and maybe not even fall so low and get sacked. Probably a question of pragmatism in the transfermarket.
Klopp shipped out Benteke, Ibe, Allen, Skrtel, Balotelli, Kolo Toure, Luis Alberto, Wisdom (loan), Sakho (loan), Markovic (loan) the next season
Went on to use Sturridge, Firmino, Origi, (Ings), Can, Henderson, Lallana, Milner, Gomez (18), Clyne, Moreno from the squad he inherited.
All in all not really any problem makers, or if there are, then they are moved on (Balotelli - was also on loan already when he took over)
Twas a long process, to get in new faces, which is also why we should have long term patience with a new manager (If he's good).
Sometimes a great player just isn't available, also when you're in a slump, but yet the manager is still judged on that and ultimately fired. That's why patience is quite important for us. Liverpool had a lot of patience at one point with Klopp where he came 4th in the league, and not much was going on - when you look back it looks like a time where there was standstill and you didn't know whether the project would go into success or simply crack up.
A lot more coherence. The impression I got from the Rodgers era is one of the committee saying "fine, you can have benteke as long as you also take Firmino" kind of deal. And Rodgers generally made very little effort to fit committee signings into his plans. It was sink or swim for them, most often as utility players.
And also a further refinement of the transfer strategy. We've stopped buying players on the basis of sell-on value and potential. No more Origi, Assaidi, Aspas or even Markovic. When we bargain shop it is for known quantities (Shaqiri) and fees paid are more on a consideration of whether they will be worth it for what they can contribute to our sporting goals rather than transfer fee down the line. VVD for example will almost certainly leave at a massive loss when the time comes.
Klopp wanted a CB in summer 2017 but Liverpool failed to get him one. They wanted Van Djik but he wasn't available and they decided that there wasn't anyone else available that would be worth spending money on.
So why didn't Klopp throw a massive strop, sabotage Liverpool's season and get himself sacked by December? Surely that's the natural thing to do in a situation like this?
A lot more coherence. The impression I got from the Rodgers era is one of the committee saying "fine, you can have benteke as long as you also take Firmino" kind of deal. And Rodgers generally made very little effort to fit committee signings into his plans. It was sink or swim for them, most often as utility players.
And also a further refinement of the transfer strategy. We've stopped buying players on the basis of sell-on value and potential. No more Origi, Assaidi, Aspas or even Markovic. When we bargain shop it is for known quantities (Shaqiri) and fees paid are more on a consideration of whether they will be worth it for what they can contribute to our sporting goals rather than transfer fee down the line. VVD for example will almost certainly leave at a massive loss when the time comes.
This change in approach was down to a lessons learnt moment by Fenway or a requirement by Klopp?
Its certainly, financially its a higher risk approach, or maybe the sale of Suarez and Coutino enable the owners to take bigger risks in the short term. And may revert back to the previous approach if there are no rewards financially.
This change in approach was down to a lessons learnt moment by Fenway or a requirement by Klopp?
Its certainly, financially its a higher risk approach, or maybe the sale of Suarez and Coutino enable the owners to take bigger risks in the short term. And may revert back to the previous approach if there are no rewards financially.
Think it was a lesson learned from the group. Klopp's approach to transfers was also different to what we're doing now when he came in.
I think the idea of the current approach is actually to minimise risk by paying what it takes to get the right one in, rather than investing less in more uncertain players with potential.
What I took from it though is it wasn't until they got a top (forward thinking) manager (Klopp) did they start to make smart signings (a few exceptions here and there before that) so I guess there's nothing radical there really - good manager makes good signings shock horror
To compare it to our current situation is that we don't know if we have a top manager (likelihood is we don't) so we don't know if our fortunes will improve after this summer or not
Klopp did amazing things with Dortmund, 2 titles and runners up in CL. However, it isn't massively different to Ole, yes a higher level of football, but Ole guided Molde to their first ever title. This again is not entirely different to SAF at Aberdeen. Dislodging Celtic and Rangers is a mean feat, so maybe worth extra points, but the general point is all of these managers started at lesser teams and guided them to relative success.
They have then moved on to the next big thing. SAF took a while to get going, so did Klopp. Maybe Ole will too, but it's unfair to say we don't have a top manager, whilst saying Klopp was. If anything none of them were top, they all were successful with the potential to be top.
Remember Klopp hasn't won anything with Liverppol yet, so I'd still say he is a potentially top manager.
A lot of people conclude that its as easy as getting a 'Klopp' in or getting the manager right. I dont think thats the take-away at all.
He succeeds at Liverpool because the board has bought similar players to his system for a good while, and he was able to built on top of that instead of dealing with expensive, non-performing players on high wages or a board that only wants to buy marketable players. There was not much for him to sort out.
Klopp at current United would be toxic, and he wouldnt be getting hard working players - He'd have to deal with commercial players full of themselves. Might implode and be sacked after year 2.
He might even be overruled if a player is not marketable enough. So its not as easy as 'just get the manager right' - both the DoF/Comittee part has to play well with the manager or else a conflict between manager and Woodward/Glazers who only thinks of marketability/money emerges.
In short we don't have a good football brain-side to what we're doing - we play to a commercial tune mostly, not a footballing one.
In what way are the likes of Fred, Dalot etc are marketable? My point is Woodward is capable of supporting a manager by buying the player the manager demands. We signed Sanchez because Mourinho wanted him, not because he was marketable.
Persuading has nothing to do with the players each manager would target. If you get a top manager in a top team he will buy players to fit his system and most of them them will perform well. He doesn't have to handpick all the players. He only needs believe they can fit within his system. This isn't football manager. The board, CEO, sporting director, and scouts don't choose the style of play.
A sporting director will never be as impactful as a manager. Ever. It's a way to deflect blame from the failure of the manager. Moyes wasn't a top manger. LVG has a good CV and had a good WC but ultimately looked past it. Mourinho has a good CV but he confirmed was everyone saw in Chelsea: He's finished as a top level manager.
Fenway Sports Group hired Damien Comoli as sporting director who was great for Spurs (Bale, Modric, and Berbatov) but not as good for Liverpool (signed Suarez but responsible for players like Carroll and Downing). If I'm not mistaken, FSG-owned Liverpool has had a transfer committee for a long time. Who was lauding their great structure at the time? Nobody.
If United get a top level manager, the transfers will work themselves out.
Great post. It's always the manager at the end of the day, if the manager has a system, it's easier for identifying positions and profiles of players needed, it's easy for whoever in charge and the scouts to identify players. For example, it's clear to everyone that Pogba will never properly fit into a Guardiola type team, City never went after him to replace Yaya Toure or a aging Silva, they targeted Bernardo Silva instead and signed him.
43m gbp on Christian Benteke. Just imagine spending 44m gbp on a slightly bulkier Andy Carroll. Carroll wasn't great, but at least he didn't cost 45m gbp. 46m gbp. It's still hard to belive. For 47m gbp you can get so much more quality in areas they needed it more. If I didn't know better I would think they spent those 48m gbp just to show off.
43m gbp on Christian Benteke. Just imagine spending 44m gbp on a slightly bulkier Andy Carroll. Carroll wasn't great, but at least he didn't cost 45m gbp. 46m gbp. It's still hard to belive. For 47m gbp you can get so much more quality in areas they needed it more. If I didn't know better I would think they spent those 48m gbp just to show off.
Klopp wanted a CB in summer 2017 but Liverpool failed to get him one. They wanted Van Djik but he wasn't available and they decided that there wasn't anyone else available that would be worth spending money on.
So why didn't Klopp throw a massive strop, sabotage Liverpool's season and get himself sacked by December? Surely that's the natural thing to do in a situation like this?
Klopp did amazing things with Dortmund, 2 titles and runners up in CL. However, it isn't massively different to Ole, yes a higher level of football, but Ole guided Molde to their first ever title. This again is not entirely different to SAF at Aberdeen. Dislodging Celtic and Rangers is a mean feat, so maybe worth extra points, but the general point is all of these managers started at lesser teams and guided them to relative success.
They have then moved on to the next big thing. SAF took a while to get going, so did Klopp. Maybe Ole will too, but it's unfair to say we don't have a top manager, whilst saying Klopp was. If anything none of them were top, they all were successful with the potential to be top.
Remember Klopp hasn't won anything with Liverppol yet, so I'd still say he is a potentially top manager.
Klopp did amazing things with Dortmund, 2 titles and runners up in CL. However, it isn't massively different to Ole, yes a higher level of football, but Ole guided Molde to their first ever title. This again is not entirely different to SAF at Aberdeen. Dislodging Celtic and Rangers is a mean feat, so maybe worth extra points, but the general point is all of these managers started at lesser teams and guided them to relative success.
They have then moved on to the next big thing. SAF took a while to get going, so did Klopp. Maybe Ole will too, but it's unfair to say we don't have a top manager, whilst saying Klopp was. If anything none of them were top, they all were successful with the potential to be top.
Remember Klopp hasn't won anything with Liverppol yet, so I'd still say he is a potentially top manager.
Just buying young players with potentials wont solve United's problem. I read this in some Liverpool article, the transfer committee does a thorough background check on potential targets and by that I mean not only his suitability to current system or his technical capabilities but also his attitude, hunger for success etc which I believe are equally important in integrating the player into team.
There's no doubt United have more talented players than Liverpool but Liverpool players play as a team whereas when you witness United play you always get the feel that they are not on same wavelength. Most of the time united's gifted players bail them out but not all the time.
I also feel team should have mix of experience and youth and all successful teams had this mix. TBH I dont think Ole is the right choice to make United competitive again but then I am no Nostradamus and he'll make me eat my words by having successful next season for United.