The Breakup of the EU

JPRouve said:
No they won't for a simple reason, we have thousands of kilometers of land borders and the volume of daily border crossing is uncomparable to the EU. The UK and Brexit aren't and will never be a model because the context is totally different, no one is keeping an eye on it.
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I wasn’t aware that somebody on a football forum can act as a spokesperson for every country within the whole of the EU. I take my comments back and bow down to your superior knowledge.
 
Green_Red said:
I don't know what the connection is between being right wing and pro-EU. Why can't someone be both?

Correct me if I'm wrong but isn't a European super state (and empire generally) and the disconnection of nation and state historically a political idea born in the right wing, whereas nationalism and the connection of nation and state is a left wing aspiration. Is that wrong?
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Why do you think the EU will break up? Do you think ECOWAS will break up or other similar international communities?

Edit I saw you changed your post.

We do not live in a European super state and certainly not an empire, we live in nation states that are unified and have their own identity and pecularities. Left wing would be the nation being run by the state.
 
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Green_Red said:
The question has nothing to do with the UK. This is the EU we are talking about. A successful economic partnership but a failed political project.
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How has the EU been a failed political project? From 1957 to today things have been quite nice, no war, better diplomacy, more solidarity, improved social standards across the area. It's not perfect and never will but where is the failure?
 
Monkey bus said:
I wasn’t aware that somebody on a football forum can act as a spokesperson for every country within the whole of the EU. I take my comments back and bow down to your superior knowledge.
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Well it was quite easy, you made a statement based on a context that isn't replicable. Brexit is its own thing, countries on the continent base their views on their own reality. And your statement was about the biggest net contributors which aren't the whole of the EU.
 
Green_Red said:
I don't know what the connection is between being right wing and pro-EU. Why can't someone be both?
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Because the right wing is insular and nationalist, while the EU is globalist, the ideologies don't mix.

The EU a failed project is a joke, probably one of the biggest success stories in history, with a few hiccups along the way.
 
Paul the Wolf said:
Which elite is that. Is That Farage. Demand change of what?
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Not Farage. I am referring to the European Elites.
Change of the germanic dominant tribalism of the european structure, i.e. Germany, France, Belgium, Luxembourg, Netherlands.
 
led_scholes said:
Not Farage. I am referring to the European Elites.
Change of the germanic dominant tribalism of the european structure, i.e. Germany, France, Belgium, Luxembourg, Netherlands.
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France aren't with the germanic countries.
 
JPRouve said:
Well it was quite easy, you made a statement based on a context that isn't replicable. Brexit is its own thing, countries on the continent base their views on their own reality. And your statement was about the biggest net contributors which aren't the whole of the EU.
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My statement was based on my opinion using words like ‘I feel‘. Yours appeared to be based on fact.

If you think the biggest net contributors to the EU will not be keen to see how the UK succeeds or fails post exit from the EU with a view to their own future plans then I think you’re probably pretty ill informed or naive.
 
JPRouve said:
France aren't with the germanic countries.
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They have differences and France tries to exploit some weakness to advance their position, but essentially follows the "party line". The French may try every now and then to pretend that they matter, but in the end they are the second fiddle that in the big matters do not oppose Germany.

If we are also speaking in terms of actual tribal theories, France has a strong blend of Germanism, after all France is the land of Franks.
 
led_scholes said:
Not Farage. I am referring to the European Elites.
Change of the germanic dominant tribalism of the european structure, i.e. Germany, France, Belgium, Luxembourg, Netherlands.
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The UK is more germanic than France, but don't get what you mean by elites. It's a nonsense word spouted by Farage and his ilk. What do you think EU citizens of all countries demand change of. The smaller countries have benefitted enormously, other countries like Poland have been asking their nationals to return now that their economy has thrived under the EU.

Why would anyone want to be so insular as the UK have decided to be? Brexit only works if you cut yourself completely from the outside world, not just from the EU and are totally self-sufficient.
 
Paul the Wolf said:
The UK is more germanic than France, but don't get what you mean by elites. It's a nonsense word spouted by Farage and his ilk. What do you think EU citizens of all countries demand change of. The smaller countries have benefitted enormously, other countries like Poland have been asking their nationals to return now that their economy has thrived under the EU.

Why would anyone want to be so insular as the UK have decided to be? Brexit only works if you cut yourself completely from the outside world, not just from the EU and are totally self-sufficient.
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I m not talking about race or culture in particular. Although as i said in another post, France has a strong blend of german races. Historically, post WW2, France and Germany are fully connected.

The concept of elites in not nonsense. It exists in political theory long before Farage. Just because Farage and populists use the word does not necessary mean that it does not exist.

I also didn't say that citizens everywhere are demanding change now, or there is a strong European movement towards this direction. I said that the EU will change if the citizens demand change, and if the elites do not want to go along, then a break up is something possible.

Also, i disagree that smaller countries have benefited enormously, especially the ones in the Eurozone. For example, If you look at the brain drain that is happening in the Balkans the last decade, i am not sure that in the long run people will feel happy about the European prospect.
 
led_scholes said:
They have differences and France tries to exploit some weakness to advance their position, but essentially follows the "party line". The French may try every now and then to pretend that they matter, but in the end they are the second fiddle that in the big matters do not oppose Germany.

If we are also speaking in terms of actual tribal theories, France has a strong blend of Germanism, after all France is the land of Franks.
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Within the EU, France is historically aligned with the southern countries not the germanic ones. And France isn't a germanic country anyway, it's a mix of romance and german culture, about half of the country is from occitan and provençal culture.
 
JPRouve said:
Within the EU, France is historically aligned with the southern countries not the germanic ones. And France isn't a germanic country anyway, it's a mix of romance and german culture, about half of the country is from occitan and provençal culture.
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Well, during the euro crisis they proved to align only with Germany. I also said it has a strong blend of germanic culture, i didn't say it is the only one.
 
JPRouve said:
Within the EU, France is historically aligned with the southern countries not the germanic ones. And France isn't a germanic country anyway, it's a mix of romance and german culture, about half of the country is from occitan and provençal culture.
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No, you're Germans now and that's the end of it. Go have your schnitzel.
 
How about the current EU ultimately morphing in to something else.

To me it's clear a lot has gone wrong with the EU in the last 20-25 years. So far there has been little recognition of that let alone any real push for significant reform. When the UK voted to leave, nobody asked why? Was unthinkable 20 years ago.
 
led_scholes said:
Well, during the euro crisis they proved to align only with Germany. I also said it has a strong blend of germanic culture, i didn't say it is the only one.
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Yes, sometimes two countries are on the same side on a particular topic.
 
The break up of the US seems more (if still very un) likely at this point.
 
led_scholes said:
I m not talking about race or culture in particular. Although as i said in another post, France has a strong blend of german races. Historically, post WW2, France and Germany are fully connected.

The concept of elites in not nonsense. It exists in political theory long before Farage. Just because Farage and populists use the word does not necessary mean that it does not exist.

I also didn't say that citizens everywhere are demanding change now, or there is a strong European movement towards this direction. I said that the EU will change if the citizens demand change, and if the elites do not want to go along, then a break up is something possible.

Also, i disagree that smaller countries have benefited enormously, especially the ones in the Eurozone. For example, If you look at the brain drain that is happening in the Balkans the last decade, i am not sure that in the long run people will feel happy about the European prospect.
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I still do not get what you mean by elite, to go along with what. Which strong European movement and change to what? I don't see what germanic races has to do with it, France is a mix of all races as is the UK but more southern European than northern European.

It is clear that continental Europe has a completely different view than the UK, probably because of the UK's insular nature.

One gets the impression that the UK realise they have made an enormous mistake and hope that someone else will follow them. After less than one month it is quite clear how difficult the future will be for the UK and is likely to get much worse especially if the world goes back to a pre-Covid situation . The government and press have tried to pass it off as teething troubles and due to the pandemic. The pandemic is everywhere and the change in trade requirements is here to stay.
 
Paul the Wolf said:
According to that poll 35% of French people think there wll be a European war, who the hell did they ask?
If I went into our village and asked who thought there'd be a European war, they'd think I'd lost the plot, seriously....
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70% of the people polled also said they would vote to stay in the EU according to the link and the question was is it realistic that the EU can break up rather than whether they think it will happen. Two thirds also said being in the EU is beneficial to them so I think that poll is positive if the headline is disregarded.
 
Paul the Wolf said:
I still do not get what you mean by elite, to go along with what. Which strong European movement and change to what? I don't see what germanic races has to do with it, France is a mix of all races as is the UK but more southern European than northern European.

It is clear that continental Europe has a completely different view than the UK, probably because of the UK's insular nature.

One gets the impression that the UK realise they have made an enormous mistake and hope that someone else will follow them. After less than one month it is quite clear how difficult the future will be for the UK and is likely to get much worse especially if the world goes back to a pre-Covid situation . The government and press have tried to pass it off as teething troubles and due to the pandemic. The pandemic is everywhere and the change in trade requirements is here to stay.
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The European Elites are not 5 or 6 persons, are not harmonious and are not static. Every country has one, be it US or North Korea. The European Elites are elites from all over Europe, so you dont have Euroelites, but national elites that communicate in a european context, that in the end can have different goals and interests, even on a national level. In the european context, we can put in this branch bussiness leaders, politicians, bankers, companies etc. I guess in the UK the crown is also part of the elite. If you want a more general theory I suggest Weber, who laid the framework of elites. Of course, the world has changed a lot since then.

As I said, currently there is no strong european movement -or actually there is none- that will demand a change towards a more democratic, integrated European Union.
 
Absolutely no chance. No other country will be idiotic enough to put it to a referendum, especially once the toll of leaving on the UK becomes more and more apparent.

Mb194dc said:
How about the current EU ultimately morphing in to something else.

To me it's clear a lot has gone wrong with the EU in the last 20-25 years. So far there has been little recognition of that let alone any real push for significant reform. When the UK voted to leave, nobody asked why? Was unthinkable 20 years ago.
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And what is that exactly? I can't think of anything majorly negative it has caused here in Ireland.
 
These observations (courtesy of Reuters) from the German Vice Chancellor in 2016 are even more relevant today.

Germany’s insistence on austerity in the euro zone has left Europe more divided than ever and a break-up of the European Union is no longer inconceivable, German Vice Chancellor Sigmar Gabriel told Der Spiegel magazine.

Gabriel, whose Social Democrats (SPD) are junior partner to Chancellor Angela Merkel’s conservatives in her ruling grand coalition, said strenuous efforts by countries like France and Italy to reduce their fiscal deficits came with political risks.

“I once asked the chancellor, what would be more costly for Germany: for France to be allowed to have half a percentage point more deficit, or for Marine Le Pen to become president?” he said, referring to the leader of the far-right National Front.


“Until today, she still owes me an answer,” added Gabriel, whose SPD favours a greater focus on investment while Merkel’s conservatives put more emphasis on fiscal discipline as a foundation for economic prosperity.

The SPD is expected to choose Gabriel, their long-standing chairman who is also economy minister, to run against Merkel for chancellor in September’s federal election, senior party sources said on Thursday.

Asked if he really believed he could win more votes by transferring more German money to other EU countries, Gabriel replied: “I know that this discussion is extremely unpopular.”


“But I also know about the state of the EU. It is no longer unthinkable that it breaks apart,” he said in the interview, published on Saturday.

“Should that happen, our children and grandchildren would curse us,” he added. “Because Germany is the biggest beneficiary of the European community - economically and politically.”

Such is their concern about this threat that they have been planning for it for several years, according to the Guardian. Some will immediately say that countries plan for all sorts of eventuality but if there was a contingency plan for a worst case scenario in 2017, how much will that have been affected by the impact of Covid and Brexit? The tone of any forward predicting by governments cannot have become more optimistic.

There's also the likelihood that the gap between the richest and poorest EU members will have grown and will continue to grow, causing further strain on the internal bonds between them.
 
Massive Spanner said:
Absolutely no chance. No other country will be idiotic enough to put it to a referendum, especially once the toll of leaving on the UK becomes more and more apparent.


And what is that exactly? I can't think of anything majorly negative it has caused here in Ireland.
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Any damage from the UK leaving will pale in to comparison to the damage from COVID-19. So will be hard to separate. Both the UK and EU will ultimately suffer unless the trade arrangements are vastly improved. Things going to get seriously ugly economically in the next few years now due to the pandemic.

For me it was obvious the expansion of the EU would cause significant problems with democratic accountability in the UK. Major and Blair are primarily responsible for the UK voting out ultimately. UK Should have taken different path with Maastricht and the enlargement.

The EU became an out of control bureaucratic nightmare as it has enlarged. The monetary union has caused significant economic problems. Housing bubble in Ireland was fuelled by interest rates being too low due to economic weaknesses elsewhere in the EU in early 2000s. Then austerity and all those issues. Obviously ROI has benefited hugely from being a tax haven base for US multinationals.

Wait till corporation tax (and tax generally) is harmonised across the EU though. I actually think Ireland ultimately probably unifies and joins the US global block eventually.

Europe can do better than the EU as it is at the moment. If there is a will for significant reform. Can have economic integration and cooperation without the Euro and the EU as it presently exists.
 
led_scholes said:
They have differences and France tries to exploit some weakness to advance their position, but essentially follows the "party line". The French may try every now and then to pretend that they matter, but in the end they are the second fiddle that in the big matters do not oppose Germany.
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We’ve literally seen the opposite happening over the past year, so...
 
Logic would suggest that if the EU goal of 'ever closer Union /greater integration' is to still remain pertinent then with the UK (awkward squad) gone, that goal should be attainable more rapidly.

The Euro Zone would need to become a mandatory requirement for all member states and a EU Military established. If these things are not move forward significantly via major new treaties, then its possible the EU will drift; possibly towards a two tier system e.g. Northern EU and a Southern EU. however a complete breakup would be very unlikely, although further 'exits' may occur.

In essence the EU has to keep moving forward towards every closer Union, once it stops looking forward then both external pressures (e.g. unfettered immigration) with the 'load' falling on specific countries and internal pressures (e.g. arising from schengen disputes etc.) in and amongst a number of countries will produce 'fracturing politics' and will overcome the collective free trade will.

Its the politics/sovereignty issues etc. rather than the trade issues, that will weaken the EU, if its ever closer Union objective remains unfulfilled.
 
Plymouth Red said:
Such is their concern about this threat that they have been planning for it for several years, according to the Guardian. Some will immediately say that countries plan for all sorts of eventuality but if there was a contingency plan for a worst case scenario in 2017, how much will that have been affected by the impact of Covid and Brexit? The tone of any forward predicting by governments cannot have become more optimistic.
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You - again - fail to read past your confirmation bias:
The German defence ministry set out its worst-case scenario for the year 2040

Despite the alarmist headlines it has generated, the leaked document is, if anything, overoptimistic. In three out of the six scenarios, things go so well that Europe resembles the Biedermeier era – 1815-1848 – of domestic bliss and military boredom.
 
Green_Red said:
Is that a joke?
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No. What's the answer?
Mb194dc said:
Any damage from the UK leaving will pale in to comparison to the damage from COVID-19. So will be hard to separate. Both the UK and EU will ultimately suffer unless the trade arrangements are vastly improved. Things going to get seriously ugly economically in the next few years now due to the pandemic.

For me it was obvious the expansion of the EU would cause significant problems with democratic accountability in the UK. Major and Blair are primarily responsible for the UK voting out ultimately. UK Should have taken different path with Maastricht and the enlargement.

The EU became an out of control bureaucratic nightmare as it has enlarged. The monetary union has caused significant economic problems. Housing bubble in Ireland was fuelled by interest rates being too low due to economic weaknesses elsewhere in the EU in early 2000s. Then austerity and all those issues. Obviously ROI has benefited hugely from being a tax haven base for US multinationals.

Wait till corporation tax (and tax generally) is harmonised across the EU though. I actually think Ireland ultimately probably unifies and joins the US global block eventually.

Europe can do better than the EU as it is at the moment. If there is a will for significant reform. Can have economic integration and cooperation without the Euro and the EU as it presently exists.
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Not really. In the short term, yes, but long term the effects of leaving the EU will be felt much harder.

The second part just isn't true at all. The housing bubble and fallout here was caused by the idiocy of our own government and banks.

I'm not sure how you can possibly think unifed Ireland = Ireland leaving the EU and joining some US global block? if anything a unified Ireland would make our EU membership much simpler and any notion of a unified Ireland would require huge funding from the EU in order to work, too (and likewise the UK). Also one of the main reasons a united Ireland would even happen is Brexit and NI wanting to be back in the EU!
 
I don’t see a break up on the cards anytime soon although I wouldn’t be shocked to see one of the fringe countries have their membership suspended (Hungary for example).

The main factor still to be resolved is the tension of having a common currency without a common fiscal policy. The economic damage caused by Covid will again put those structural fault lines under pressure although I doubt the consequences will extend beyond bad blood and economic pain.
 
Crackers said:
Please back up your incredulous claim with some actual evidence.
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When one of the biggest economies in Europe leaves the project isn't that evidence of failure? Not sure what you could class as bigger evidence? Minute detail is what you're looking for is it?
 
Green_Red said:
When one of the biggest economies in Europe leaves the project isn't that evidence of failure? Not sure what you could class as bigger evidence? Minute detail is what you're looking for is it?
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27 -1 victory. Come back in a year or two and see how successful the UK is. The Uk left because the voters were conned. Simple as.
 
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