The Breakup of the EU

Can anyone point to any Scandinavian country, e.g government, that ever expressed it's will to leave or is this just another smoke bomb?
 
Abizzz said:
Can anyone point to any Scandinavian country, e.g government, that ever expressed it's will to leave or is this just another smoke bomb?
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I found a daily express article citing some tory who says appeal for a swexit is growing.

So, uh, no.
 
Always unwise to dismiss the consequences of a COVID-type black swan event. This article offers food for thought on the implications in the EU for paying for the future recovery from it or not.

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KirkDuyt said:
I found a daily express article citing some tory who says appeal for a swexit is growing.

So, uh, no.
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For Finland, would it be fix-it or fecks-it? Guess it's a good thing they're not part of Scandinavia.
 
The only sentiment to leave EU in DK comes from the typical right wing anti immigrant party who has absolutely no footing to do anything else than yell "EU is bad" whilst no one listens to them.

Also during the last EU parliament election the "peoples movement against EU" also lost their only seat, so there is very little support from the public to leave unless something fundamentally changes over the coming years
 
One Night Only said:
Weren't some of the Scandinavian countries already looking to leave the EU before Brexit got voted anyway?
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Erm, I can talk for Sweden and that’s a massive no.

Finland? Denmark? Certainly not what I’ve heard, people who know better above have already called nonsense on that.
Scandies love traveling and their freedoms, no chance we’d be giving up the beautiful freedom the EU gives citizens.
 
Regulus Arcturus Black said:
Erm, I can talk for Sweden and that’s a massive no.

Finland? Denmark? Certainly not what I’ve heard, people who know better above have already called nonsense on that.
Scandies love traveling and their freedoms, no chance we’d be giving up the beautiful freedom the EU gives citizens.
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After the shitshow of Brexit I doubt anyone will want to leave ever.
 
Cheimoon said:
Your post needs to sit down and warm it's brain. If you want to be so extremely literal and unnuanced, then we should just count. Since the EU started, 28 countries joined, including big ones, and one left. A great success.

If you think that's nonsense, then you now understand how we're reading your post here. A total lack of nuance or context, yet you keep saying it as if just repeating your point the exact same way makes it more true or will help us understand it better.
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And since the UK left most of the rest of the world has been shaking it's head at a country doing something so idiotically self-destructive. That and/or laughing at the UK.
 
A few independent takes on the question

https://www.euronews.com/2020/08/10...g-the-eu-if-brexit-is-successful-according-to

https://www.politico.eu/article/polexit-poland-veto-kaczynski-morawiecki-polexit-brexit-eu/

And if you want to place a wager

https://www.olbg.com/blogs/next-country-leave-european-union

I still expect the increasing tension around the EU budget and COVID recovery plan to test the stability of the bloc in the short term.
If you look five to ten years forward, the question of the bloc’s capacity to cope with the twin challenges of climate change (e.g Spanish aquifers or lack of) and the forecast huge upheaval in manufacturing and technology will also need answering.
Northward migration from Africa will also increase and prove tricky to manage equitably.
 
Plymouth Red said:
A few independent takes on the question

https://www.euronews.com/2020/08/10...g-the-eu-if-brexit-is-successful-according-to

https://www.politico.eu/article/polexit-poland-veto-kaczynski-morawiecki-polexit-brexit-eu/

And if you want to place a wager

https://www.olbg.com/blogs/next-country-leave-european-union

I still expect the increasing tension around the EU budget and COVID recovery plan to test the stability of the bloc in the short term.
If you look five to ten years forward, the question of the bloc’s capacity to cope with the twin challenges of climate change (e.g Spanish aquifers or lack of) and the forecast huge upheaval in manufacturing and technology will also need answering.
Northward migration from Africa will also increase and prove tricky to manage equitably.
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The first link you posted showed support for leaving the EU in the 30s percent-wise in France and Spain, so hardly a ringing endorsement. The small sample size (1,500 each in four countries) were also polled while we were still in the leaving period, so they hadn't seen the shitshow at the borders yet.

Climate change and migration from North Africa will be serious challenges over the coming years. Why do you think Spain, Portugal, Italy and Greece, for example, would be better positioned to handle these issues outside of the EU, particularly given three of those countries are net beneficiaries of EU funding?
 
Wibble said:
After the shitshow of Brexit I doubt anyone will want to leave ever.
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Well we've also proved that propaganda works though, so those that wish to do the EU harm will keep throwing money at it... and propaganda does work... so who knows.
 
The incoming breakup of the UK will have Hadrian’s Wall as the most westerly land border of the EU. Seventeen tons of paperwork needed to cross into England. Some say they might decide to rejoin the rest of us one of these centuries.
 
Tincanalley said:
The incoming breakup of the UK will have Hadrian’s Wall as the most westerly land border of the EU. Seventeen tons of paperwork needed to cross into England. Some say they might decide to rejoin the rest of us one of these centuries.
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Hadrian's Wall is in England
 
Green_Red said:
I'm trying to explain my point to you. You've added nothing to the contrary that says why my point is wrong.
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And he is asking for evidence or at least a reasoned justification of why you think 1 perpetually eurosceptical country leaving an ever expanding union is evidence of it failing.
 
Plymouth Red said:
Gosh, you do get het up, don’t you? initially when I read your comments, my glasses weren’t on properly and I thought you had written constipation bias, which struck me as over familiar but I sorted out the bins and saw you said confirmation. That was a relief because I didn’t remember clicking on a bodily functions thread.

Now, back to business, so let’s revisit what I wrote.

Some will immediately say that countries plan for all sorts of eventuality but if there was a contingency plan for a worst case scenario in 2017,

The plan was written in or before 2017. I didn’t say it related to 2017 because anyone reading the article would already have known it was for 2040.

I don’t want you to apologise for your lack of understanding because everyone is living in a stressful period and it’s easy to lose a bit of focus. You, like me, may also have been in the middle of a spectacles incident.

I am concerned you’re getting worked up fairly often, though and you mustn’t. It’s bad for your blood pressure. This can lead to loss of appetite, sleeplessness, hair loss and even infertility.

Have you tried yoga or meditation? My grandmother recommended putting lavender oil on a pillow at night as it was calming, so she said.

If you find the stressful feelings don’t go away, let’s talk more and try to find a way through it for you.

All the best.
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Do you talk like this in real life?
 
Green_Red said:
I'm using figures from 2017.

Of the 28 nations that made up the EU the United Kingdom accounted for 13.1% approx. of the EU population.

That 13.1% population also represented about 15.2% of the European Union GDP.

The fact that 1 nation can have those kind of sizeable numbers when the remainder of the numbers, 87% of population and 85% of GDP represents 27 nations is massive.

In terms of trade the "ever expanding" EU is hardly expanding into lucrative markets where there is buckets of expendible income amongst the middle classes.

Proof of that is that these 5 nations, Germany, France, Italy, Netherlands and Spain represent almost 60% of the remaining GDP!!! 6 countries out of the 28 represented 75% of the EUs GDP in 2017. I'll let that sink in. 21 countries in the EU represented less than a quarter of its GDP.

Would you like me to continue, or is that not enough of a reason why the EU failing to keep the UK in the EU is a failure of the EU?
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Yes please, cause I don't see the point of this contribution yet. You already mentioned that the UK was a big member state, and no-one denied that. And of course there are huge differences between the countries that make up the EU. There is little choice there, as Europe just happens to have rather differently sized countries. (Same with expanding into lucrative markets, for that matter; what countries would.you suggest?) I'm not sure how that's relevant here though, as everyone's counterargument to your point about failure is that the UK was always a reluctant member. There was no pleasing the UK. How does talking more about the UK's relative size within the EU respond to that?
 
Green_Red said:
I'm using figures from 2017.

Of the 28 nations that made up the EU the United Kingdom accounted for 13.1% approx. of the EU population.

That 13.1% population also represented about 15.2% of the European Union GDP.

The fact that 1 nation can have those kind of sizeable numbers when the remainder of the numbers, 87% of population and 85% of GDP represents 27 nations is massive.

In terms of trade the "ever expanding" EU is hardly expanding into lucrative markets where there is buckets of expendible income amongst the middle classes.

Proof of that is that these 5 nations, Germany, France, Italy, Netherlands and Spain represent almost 60% of the remaining GDP!!! 6 countries out of the 28 represented 75% of the EUs GDP in 2017. I'll let that sink in. 21 countries in the EU represented less than a quarter of its GDP.

Would you like me to continue, or is that not enough of a reason why the EU failing to keep the UK in the EU is a failure of the EU? Its also a failure of Westminster, don't think I don't think that for one minute, but we are where we are and reality is reality. Why bicker over it.
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None of that in any way proves your point. 1 country leaving who, despite being economically important, have been a pain in the EU's backside since day 1 doesn't make the EU a failure. How would it? Any block like the EU can have new members but can't prevent members from leaving.
 
Cheimoon said:
Yes please, cause I don't see the point of this contribution yet. You already mentioned that the UK was a big member state, and no-one denied that. And of course there are huge differences between the countries that make up the EU. There is little choice there, as Europe just happens to have rather differently sized countries. (Same with expanding into lucrative markets, for that matter; what countries would.you suggest?) I'm not sure how that's relevant here though, as everyone's counterargument to your point about failure is that the UK was always a reluctant member. There was no pleasing the UK. How does talking more about the UK's relative size within the EU respond to that?
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In 2018 only 10 countries were net contributors to the EU budget. UK was one of them. 9 countries are now Bank rolling 27 countries. The UK represented 10 billion euros of a budget of about 50 Billion. That's a big hole in that budget.

If those numbers don't mean anything to you in terms of basic economics then I don't know how I can portray the UKs exit from Europe as a failure on both sides.

Maybe there's a disconnect between what you consider a failure and what I do. But since most of the conversations about Brexit on this forum centered around trade I assumed the economics were important in how you could class the outcomes as positive or negative.
 
Wibble said:
None of that in any way proves your point. 1 country leaving who, despite being economically important, have been a pain in the EU's backside since day 1 doesn't make the EU a failure. How would it? Any block like the EU can have new members but can't prevent members from leaving.
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How were the UK a pain in the EUs backside? Please elaborate. I feel since I've attempted you could show me the same courtesy.
 
Jippy said:
Climate change and migration from North Africa will be serious challenges over the coming years. Why do you think Spain, Portugal, Italy and Greece, for example, would be better positioned to handle these issues outside of the EU, particularly given three of those countries are net beneficiaries of EU funding?
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I can't speak for the other countries, but some people in Greece consider EU membership and law as a reason for the problem of migrants. I'll explain why...

There's this EU law called the Dublin Regulation which basically was put in place to avoid what is known as Asylum Shopping. Which is essentially the same refugee applying for Asylum in many different countries in the EU. It stipulates that refugees must be finger-printed and have their asylum application processed on the country of entry. The application result is final and they can't reapply to another member state. So the first member state where finger prints are stored or an asylum claim is lodged is responsible for a person's asylum claim. And EU member states have the right to transfer migrants to the first recorded country of entry to the EU.

I'd imagine I don't have to explain to you how this is hugely problematic for periphery countries, like Greece. Hardly any of those refugees or immigrants who file for asylum want to stay in Greece, a country that can't really provide them with the jobs they seek. Ideally for them it's only a stepping stone towards Germany/France/Britain/Scandies. However based on EU law they all become stuck there until the Greek legal system can process their claims. And if the claim fails, another long wait until they can be processed for a return. IF they succeed they still have to wait until a destination is allocated to them. Meanwhile they stay in miserable conditions on these camps while Greeks grumble about having to take this burden on behalf of others.

So on to the question "Why do you think Spain, Portugal, Italy and Greece, for example, would be better positioned to handle these issues outside of the EU". The answer for some is simple. They just wouldn't have to handle them. They'd just let the refugees/immigrants move on, like it used to happen 10 years ago, until they arrive at the Northern European country of their choosing where they will proceed to apply for asylum. They feel those countries are almost completely insulated from the problem.

Now, the EU does try to move most of the successful applicants on and spread their number across the EU countries. Having a system of quotas with how many each country should take based on population and economic criteria. The northern countries are, obviously, not insulated. However that again creates two problems. One, that's not where they wanna be. Some family that wanted to end up in Switzerland gets allocated to Estonia. They are not content and will try to move again. Two, some bad boy countries like Poland and Hungary refuse to obey the law and their allocated quota remains stuck in camps on the country of entry, often Greece.

So yes, the members do try to share the load. But it's dysfunctional and the periphery feels that having to host and process all the asylum claimants is still disproportionate load for them (even if they are compensated) and that if they weren't in the EU they would have to do pretty much squat.
 
Green_Red said:
How were the UK a pain in the EUs backside? Please elaborate. I feel since I've attempted you could show me the same courtesy.
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Off the top of my head, negotiating a rebate we didn't deserve that was mainly agreed to to keep us quiet in 1984. Opposition to Maastricht, particularly the protection of workers rights, resistance to the single currency, constant sniping, criticism and campaigning against the EU by the Tories, their mates at the top end of town and the Murdoch press over many decades (ironic since it was Labor who were the original Eurosceptics back in the day) etc etc.

Almost since day 1, when we finally got in after begging to get in to help save us from economic collapse, we have wanted everything our way, everything that benefited us but with a huge reluctance to give back. If I were the EU I'd be glad to see that back of us as we never demonstrate the we wanted to be European. Our MEP's didn't exactly make us popular either.

And of course the whole Brexit thing has been a huge pain in the arse for the EU for over half a decade now.
 
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Green_Red said:
In 2018 only 10 countries were net contributors to the EU budget. UK was one of them. 9 countries are now Bank rolling 27 countries. The UK represented 10 billion euros of a budget of about 50 Billion. That's a big hole in that budget.

If those numbers don't mean anything to you in terms of basic economics then I don't know how I can portray the UKs exit from Europe as a failure on both sides.

Maybe there's a disconnect between what you consider a failure and what I do. But since most of the conversations about Brexit on this forum centered around trade I assumed the economics were important in how you could class the outcomes as positive or negative.
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Yes, maybe we're getting into semantics here. Of course I agree that the departure of the UK is a loss to the EU. And in that context, I agree with all your points regarding the relative size of the UK, the importance of their economic contribution, and so on. To classify it as a failure, however, I think you would have to be able to point to concerted efforts to prevent the UK's departure from happening. I don't see that, at least not on the side of the EU. In fact, the day after the vote, I think for a lot people in the EU (if 'a lot' isn't overstating it here), disbelief was mingled with a sense of relief - because for as long as I have been following politics (about 30 years; so I did also miss a good chunk of relevant history), the UK has been reluctant and difficult member state - due to all the reasons @Wibble listed.

So I agree that it's a great loss, that it's unfortunate, and that it preferably shouldn't have happened - but I don't see it as a failure as such.
 
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The EU certainly hasn't failed or come near to braking up because of Brexit, but swings to the right in other EU countries do worry me. The French election in 2022 for example could cause huge issues if Macron were to lose to the LePen, Gert Wilders in Holland doesn't seem to much of a threat anymore, but Italy is a worry as well.

If for the sake of argument France and Italy decide they want out that could spell huge problems in the future.
 
People that think it’s stronger than ever are deluded. It’s a declining economic power and was even with the UK in it. I think this is why the ideologues at the political level will push for more and more integration so it becomes harder for it to break up as it continues to decline in economic importance.

Hard to say what happens in the future but I’m sceptical it will survive an event like a mass climate refugee crisis, at least in its current form.
 
I really don't see why countries like France and Germany smack bang in the middle of the continent with border crossings all over the shop would want to make those harder to manage. Furthermore, from a conflict/war perspective none of them are placed very well to defend their territories on their own so will do anything to keep the Union together.

With the climate crisis and migrants and refugees coming in the future like we've never seen before there's no hope of anyone solving that on their own. I've been critical of the EU's handling of refugees but from a European perspective the EU is the best chance of coming up with a vaguely humanist solution.
Ralaks said:
The only sentiment to leave EU in DK comes from the typical right wing anti immigrant party who has absolutely no footing to do anything else than yell "EU is bad" whilst no one listens to them.

Also during the last EU parliament election the "peoples movement against EU" also lost their only seat, so there is very little support from the public to leave unless something fundamentally changes over the coming years
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Enhedslisten (furthest left party we have in parliament, for anyone who isn't Danish) used to be anti-EU as well but I'm not sure that's the case anymore. They're one of only two parties with a serious climate agenda and being interested in solving the climate crisis doesn't really align very well with having an insular outlook.

But yeah, currently no one except the ones defending MPs breaking the law are willing to even entertain the idea of leaving the EU, and I'm pretty sure it wouldn't get much backing from the electorate either.
 
The Boy said:
The EU certainly hasn't failed or come near to braking up because of Brexit, but swings to the right in other EU countries do worry me. The French election in 2022 for example could cause huge issues if Macron were to lose to the LePen, Gert Wilders in Holland doesn't seem to much of a threat anymore, but Italy is a worry as well.

If for the sake of argument France and Italy decide they want out that could spell huge problems in the future.
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Le Pen is pro-Eu and even the Italian RW realised leaving the EU is moronic.

The message from Brexiters is clearly that they've realised they have made a catastrophic mistake, please please someone else do the same otherwise they look really really stupid.
You would have thought they would be basking in their success.
 
Paul the Wolf said:
Le Pen is pro-Eu
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Le Pen is not pro-EU, she may have stepped back from demanding a referendum and taking France out of the EU completely as she did for years

“I think we’ve witnessed a historic moment, the most important moment since the fall of the Berlin Wall. I think the courage of the British people who didn’t allow themselves to be intimidated by the threats, blackmail and lies of the European elites is a voice to follow. For four years I’ve been demanding that a referendum be organized in France to ask the French people what they think of the EU, if they want to leave. The British go the first shot in, so to speak.”

But she is absolutely clear her new approach to Europe wants to do away with the commission, regain control of borders and have representative from national parliaments making decisions outside of Brussels.

Party chief Marine Le Pen set out her program for the European Parliament election at an event in Strasbourg on Monday, but rowed back from earlier calls for France to abandon the euro and to quit the EU altogether. Both had been key features of Le Pen’s stump speeches.

Instead, she said the National Rally (formerly the National Front) wants to “save Europe from the European Union that is destroying it,” and called for a “European alliance of nations” to take decision-making away from Brussels

With the implementation of economic patriotism aimed at defending “local, ecological and socially responsible production,” Rassemblement National aims to defend “localism”, which is essentially opposed to globalisation and free trade advocated by the currrent EU, explained Le Pen.

She is also still very supportive of Brexit.

“Since #Brexit, the national wealth of the United Kingdom has outperformed that of the eurozone, their unemployment rate is at its lowest, they created twice as many jobs as in France and salaries have increased since the end of mass immigration!”

Pretty much all she wants to keep is the Euro. Don't get me wrong I think she is bonkers, but if she comes to power in France it will put huge pressure on the EU.
 
I agree that Le Pen in power would be a disaster for the EU (as well as for France, and Europe generally).
 
The Boy said:
Le Pen is not pro-EU, she may have stepped back from demanding a referendum and taking France out of the EU completely as she did for years

“I think we’ve witnessed a historic moment, the most important moment since the fall of the Berlin Wall. I think the courage of the British people who didn’t allow themselves to be intimidated by the threats, blackmail and lies of the European elites is a voice to follow. For four years I’ve been demanding that a referendum be organized in France to ask the French people what they think of the EU, if they want to leave. The British go the first shot in, so to speak.”

But she is absolutely clear her new approach to Europe wants to do away with the commission, regain control of borders and have representative from national parliaments making decisions outside of Brussels.

Party chief Marine Le Pen set out her program for the European Parliament election at an event in Strasbourg on Monday, but rowed back from earlier calls for France to abandon the euro and to quit the EU altogether. Both had been key features of Le Pen’s stump speeches.

Instead, she said the National Rally (formerly the National Front) wants to “save Europe from the European Union that is destroying it,” and called for a “European alliance of nations” to take decision-making away from Brussels

With the implementation of economic patriotism aimed at defending “local, ecological and socially responsible production,” Rassemblement National aims to defend “localism”, which is essentially opposed to globalisation and free trade advocated by the currrent EU, explained Le Pen.

She is also still very supportive of Brexit.

“Since #Brexit, the national wealth of the United Kingdom has outperformed that of the eurozone, their unemployment rate is at its lowest, they created twice as many jobs as in France and salaries have increased since the end of mass immigration!”

Pretty much all she wants to keep is the Euro. Don't get me wrong I think she is bonkers, but if she comes to power in France it will put huge pressure on the EU.
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People like Le Pen, Farage , Trump and the like don't have coherent policies, they are populists who breed off the dumbness of the people they know they can appeal to. They are destroyers.

Le Pen has already started her campaign for the 2022 french presidential election and is now appealing to Muslims and immigrants to vote for her next year. Some will of course because they're not very bright , just as immigrants voted for Brexit in 2016. Taking occasional quotes mean nothing, they change with the wind.

Le Pen becoming French president would be a concern , not for the EU but for France, she is actually an idiot.
 
This thread has become really boring. People regurgitating talking points that were insignificant 5 years ago without any additional information or context. Obviously there's problems in the European Union, like in any set of countries. Brexiteers wet dreams of even more comical figures than Boris rising to the top of other nations aside, there's not much happening. Even the countries with the most controversial stance towards the EU, Poland and Hungary currently, aren't anywhere near threatening to leave.

It's all just in some crazed Brexiteers heads.
 
Plymouth Red said:
A few independent takes on the question

https://www.euronews.com/2020/08/10...g-the-eu-if-brexit-is-successful-according-to

https://www.politico.eu/article/polexit-poland-veto-kaczynski-morawiecki-polexit-brexit-eu/

And if you want to place a wager

https://www.olbg.com/blogs/next-country-leave-european-union

I still expect the increasing tension around the EU budget and COVID recovery plan to test the stability of the bloc in the short term.
If you look five to ten years forward, the question of the bloc’s capacity to cope with the twin challenges of climate change (e.g Spanish aquifers or lack of) and the forecast huge upheaval in manufacturing and technology will also need answering.
Northward migration from Africa will also increase and prove tricky to manage equitably.
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That first link is nonsense. I live in Italy, there is absolutely no chance people here want to leave. Italians love to complain and hypothesise what they would do instead, but it doesn't mean they actually mean it, if push comes to shove.
 
Paul the Wolf said:
People like Le Pen, Farage , Trump and the like don't have coherent policies, they are populists who breed off the dumbness of the people they know they can appeal to. They are destroyers.

Le Pen has already started her campaign for the 2022 french presidential election and is now appealing to Muslims and immigrants to vote for her next year. Some will of course because they're not very bright , just as immigrants voted for Brexit in 2016. Taking occasional quotes mean nothing, they change with the wind.

Le Pen becoming French president would be a concern , not for the EU but for France, she is actually an idiot.
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The funny thing about Le Pen is that she is less popular than Macron who is not exactly popular himself and she is as popular as Hidalgo who is for the moment ignored by people outside of France. I'm actually scared of Hidalgo, she is obnoxious but could emulate Hollande 2012.
 
Paul the Wolf said:
People like Le Pen, Farage , Trump and the like don't have coherent policies, they are populists who breed off the dumbness of the people they know they can appeal to. They are destroyers.

Le Pen has already started her campaign for the 2022 french presidential election and is now appealing to Muslims and immigrants to vote for her next year. Some will of course because they're not very bright , just as immigrants voted for Brexit in 2016. Taking occasional quotes mean nothing, they change with the wind.

Le Pen becoming French president would be a concern , not for the EU but for France, she is actually an idiot.
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Now I’m sure it is just badly put but I do think you should edit your post. That section is about as racist a statement as you could make and is unworthy of you.
 
Virgil said:
Now I’m sure it is just badly put but I do think you should edit your post. That section is about as racist a statement as you could make and is unworthy of you.
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No it's just your way of looking at it. Muslim's and immigrants who would vote for Le Pen would not be very bright. French white people who voted for Le Pen would not be very bright.
I'm an immigrant and if I voted for Le Pen I would not be very bright.

Nice try though.
 
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