Scary for sure. Can’t speak for all states, but CA has been on lockdown now for the past couple weeks. Definitely lacking on testing though no doubt.
The Trump Presidency | Biden Inaugurated
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Not a strange post at all and healthcare is always an issue in the US.
America is headed for a ridiculous figure. They don't need measures, they need a treatment. Not in 2021, not in June, not even next week. They need it now if they are going to save lives. I can see Gilead's treatment being pushed through even quicker. Otherwise they've already started with recovered patients' plasma treatment:
https://www.usatoday.com/story/news...apy-5-us-patients-covid-19-donors/5090946002/
https://www.usatoday.com/story/news...apy-5-us-patients-covid-19-donors/5090946002/
Everyone is headed for a ridiculous figure. The US has a larger population than the UK, France, Germany, Spain and Italy combined (5 worst-hit countries in EU), so the numbers look worse, but actually they are better than those of any of those countries except Germany.
For now.
Why that should change though? Many of the states have acted quite early (we have had a shelter in place order in California for more than 3 weeks). Florida will we fecked cause they didn't act until yesterday but most states have acted reasonably well. For example, California has a population comparable to Spain, a much more diverse population, had earlier the first case, and has only 8k infections (with much more testings) and 171 deaths.
I think that the US is going to be screwed, but the same is for the rest of the world. I would be very surprised if deaths per capita would be higher than in the UK, Italy or Spain for example.
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There was a show on ITV just (UK channel) about America/Coronavirus... bit wishy washy but one of the the things they mentioned is the number of gun sales is going through the roof and gun shops are open as deemed 'essential businesses'.
Really?
Really?
The US is expected to be at 2,000+ deaths per day by next week I believe I read earlier. The numbers of cases are rising at a huge rate and with the amounts not tested plus the obvious healthcare issues it’s going to be horrendous.
I hope those expectations are wrong, I truly do, but it feels dry for disaster.
Many of the states are still doing far too little.
There was a tweet in here yesterday that showed a glut of recent deaths in one county attributed to pneumonia or respiratory problems. That will definitely be the trend in America, there will be no desire to find out how many were actually covid deaths. I reckon the deaths from covid will fall far short of explaining the massive spike in deaths over the next 18 months.
In Florida, church gathering is classified as essential. feck sake
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America and China in Spider-Man outfits, pointing at each other.
If they don’t look after that ship and the virus causes serious issues...absolutely nobody will get the blame.
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That’d be funny if it weren’t actually true.
2000 deaths per day in US would be similar to 350 deaths in Italy or 300 or so in Spain, adjusted for population. And they have been having much more.
The numbers are rising because of testing. The US is doing more than 100k tests per day in the last two-three weeks. The Uk for example has done around 140k in total. Germany is the best in Europe (from large countries) and they are doing I think around 80k per day.
Don’t get me wrong, it is going to be terrible but I think that the US has done a better job than any of the 5 countries in Europe I mentioned except Germany.
That could be a valid point, but again, it is hardly different to other countries. There have to be many deaths which are getting missed.
I agree that some states are doing badly. Florida in particular is a ticking bomb and can get very ugly there. Some have been doing quite well (for example Washington and California were hit very early but have managed to do relatively well since then).
Again, the US is a very big and diverse place so taking numbers without context serves nothing. Almost certainly is going to have more deaths than any country in Europe but that was always inevitable knowing the size of the population there. As I said, it has a population larger than Germany, France, the UK, Italy and Spain. A valid comparison would be the number of deaths in the US compared to those 5 countries combined.
Because the number of confirmed cases in the US is increasing at a faster rate than any other country on Earth, and it's only a matter of time until the systems get overloaded. The main reason Spain and Italy are seeing such alarming death rates compared to the rest of the world is that they don't have the capacity to treat all their patients. The US is on their way to that point as if it's a fecking race to get there first, and as soon as it happens the shit will really hit the fan. It's more than likely that the number of Americans dying every day will reach five figures well before the end of the month. Donnie's out of his element if he thinks it'll stop at 240,000 total.
Let them go be with their god. They'll welcome it.
But that is to a large degree because of the number of testings going on. The US is testing daily (more or less) as many people as the UK has tested in total since this shitshow started. If you test over 100k people daily, of course, that the number of infected people is going to increase. We saw the same in Europe when Germany looked relatively not attacked, they raised their testing and now are fourth in the world in the number of cases (they will probably surpass Italy in a couple of weeks).
When the number of testings is very different from country to country, it is pointless comparing the number of infected. The number of deaths is more relevant, and well the US numbers are increasing there but are nowhere as bad as Italy. Italy was having almost 1k deaths per day a few days ago, adjusted for size, the US need to have 5k+ deaths per day. Spain is having 1k deaths today, adjusted for size, the US needs to have around 7k deaths per day to do as bad as Spain.
It might happen, or not, but I haven't seen a pattern so far to suggest that they are doing worse than Spain, Italy, the UK, or France. The UK, for example, has 1/5 of the population, while having 1/2 of total deaths and daily deaths. And has issued the lockdown later than most of the US states, while has a far weaker medical system (number of ICUs and ventilators).
Germany is doing unquestionably better though (so far). Is it just pure luck or they are just behind and inevitably it is going to get there, I don't know.
At the end of the day, there has hardly been a vast difference in how the large Western countries have acted, so I don't think we will see a large difference in the number of deaths when all this is done.
Finally, only New York, New Jersey and to a lesser degree Louisiana and Michigan have the medical system near collapse as Italy and Spain. In others, the medical system is still quite strong. And some of the states like Cali or Washington have been attacked earlier, but the measures the governments took seem to have had a large effect. Additionally, the US can mobilize better than most of the other countries (just see the work in New York going on, and compare it with Lombardy) in building new hospitals or making new ventilators.
Bollox. The US were too busy claiming it was a democrat hoax. Population isn't a defence when you look at whats going on in New York.
Trump leadership is responsible for alot of avoidable deaths. But he wont care or take any blame.
The same Donnie that was calling it a hoax a few weeks ago.
Not really. Trump was saying the usual bullshit, but there were measures going on behind the scenes. For example, California issued a lockdown long before the federal government did so. Many states acted the same. And even when Trump was saying retarded things, there was stuff going on (for example, on testing, which after a very bad start, resulted in the US having the possibility of doing more tests than any other country).
I agree that the action from the federal government initially was quite bad (though it has been quite good in the last 2 weeks), but many governors (Democrats like Newsom or Inslee, and Republicans like DeWine) acted quickly and decisively. Unfortunately, New York (despite being a blue state) was not one of them, with high-level officials not taking things seriously even in February.
How can a claim be made that the federal response is anything short of disastrous, when individual states are still out bidding each other (and FEMA!) on the market for medical supplies and equipment ? Instead of the no brainer solution for federal purchase and distribution.
I guess that's what you get in the US of A, capitalism to the bone.
Even Germany are headed for a ridiculous figure. People still can’t grasp how inevitable this is.
Realistically it was always likely to be career ending, and I thought that when I first read he’d spoken out. Military commanders don’t get away with going to the press with their problems. Good on him for putting his sailors ahead of his career though, it was a brave and noble move.
At least he has forced the two cruise ships to be allowed to dock in the USA. He has done the right thing. Give him credit for that.
The US does fewer tests per capita than Italy, Germany, France, UK and Spain, but the amount of cases is doubling in the US at a faster rate than in any of those five countries.
Very soon the US is going to have worse numbers across the board than any of the big European countries, and it's not just because they're testing a lot. It's because they fecked up the handling of this crisis despite having more time to prepare. There's no way to sugarcoat this. The US just hasn't gotten as far into it as Europe because it started rapidly spreading here earlier. In terms of infection, Italy was about two weeks ahead of the US. If the US doubling rates keep up there'll be almost two million confirmed cases in two weeks time. How the hell do you expect the health care system to handle an onslaught like that? Tell me again how the US is handling this well. It's a fecking disaster for the history books unfolding before our eyes.
No, it does not. The US is doing over 100k tests per day in the last 2 weeks, the UK has done 140k tests in total. It was like that until 2-3 weeks ago, but since the US raised their testings, only Germany from the countries you mentioned do more testings per capita (and Germany upped their game too which also resulted with a spike in infections). The UK in particular is having a severe lack of testing, which is the main reason why the number of infections there is so low.
There are some small European countries that do more testing per capita, of course. For example, Iceland or Norway. But then, the US tests more in a day than they have done entirely.
They also did not have more time to prepare. The first official cases there were 10 days before in Italy or Spain.
For as ridiculous as the south is at times, Louisiana and Mississippi were pretty good at the response to the pandemic, Texas still hasn't even got an official stay at home order, Louisiana has now been extended to April 30th.
The first case doesn't matter that much. You need to look at when it started spreading rapidly. All the big European countries reached both 100 and 1000 cases up to several days before the US. That also gave the US the benefit of seeing what was happening elsewhere and putting in place measures to prevent it spreading as rapidly as in the countries that were already badly infected, but they failed to do so before it was too late. The alarmingly high doubling rate shows conclusively that it has spread out of control already.
I will concede that I was looking at older data for tests per capita and that the US has ramped up since then, but even the most recent data I can find (from today) shows both Italy and Germany still testing more per capita than the US, by a factor of 2.5.
Again, that depends on the testing. Back then, it was impossible to get a test in the US unless you were an NBA player or a senator, so for sure there were many cases undetected. Obviously Italy is ahead on the curve, but not sure for Spain. The lockdowns in Spain and most of the US were issued around the same time. I think that Spain so far has been the country which has been attacked worse.
I am not sure that any country is giving the official number of testings(except the UK). Germany said that they have reached 80k per day, Deborah Brix said last week that the US has done more testings in 8 days then S. Korea in 8 weeks (something that Trump has repeated since every time he has the chance) and days later she said that they surpassed 100k/day testing capacity. So hard to know exactly, but for sure the US has surpassed 1 million testings. I don't know much about Italy except that you cannot get a test unless you are really sick.
If Germany (who is doing a very good job on testing) is really doing 80k/day, then yes, they are doing more than the US per capita. To be equal, the US need to have been doing over 300k/day, which is not the case (source: Trump would have never shut up if that was the case).
It's not confirmed that he leaked it to the press, although that is what Navy brass apparently suspects (per WaPo). But I think you're right, was always going to put his career in trouble but he did the right thing. I think the only chance for him to be inline for anything other than retirement now is if there is heavy political pressure from the administration or congress, which I don't imagine will be the case.
He did the right thing. His first responsibility is to his crew. I am sure you get to be a captain of an aircraft carrier after a lot of experience and assessment. He would not have made the decision to write like that without a lot of thought. In the end he probably knew that he was going to get fired for telling the truth. But he did it for his crew and he was proved right as so many tested positive and the crew whose lives will be saved will thank him. To me he is a much better man than someone who shot down a civilian airliner.
To be honest I find it hard to believe that Trump, the president after all, and half the country with him believing that the Virus shouldn't be taken too seriously (or at all) won't have a (strong) negative effect on how the crisis develops in the US.
I'm also not sure that your use of statistics is entirely correct (though not an expert myself either tbf). If we look at the number of deaths the US had a very fortunate start compared to some European countries like Spain, France or Italy. The 100 deaths mark was reached weeks after Italy for example (despite the huge difference in population size), so you're comparing countries at different stages in their crisis.
I think the NYT's tracking is quite informative in that regard: https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/03/21/upshot/coronavirus-deaths-by-country.html
You can see the rates for EU countries declining for some time now, while the US is actually still increasing.
To me it looks like you are comparing what could be early days for most of the US with parts of Europe that have unfortunately already reached critical mass (collapse of health care services).
And to put 100k tests into perspective. As you mentioned Germany, relatively speaking, is apparently doing three times as many as the US. But our experts seem to think that even that is not enough and the target should be 200k per week.
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I agree mostly with your post. EU (Spain/Italy) is ahead in the curve compared to the US (heck, with a bit of luck, Italy is already in the second half of the curve). What I mean is that some people only check the deaths and see the US leading, so it is 'Gosh, the US is doing so bad'. When in fact, assuming that both Italy and Spain are at their peak, for the US to do as bad as them it needs to have around 5k deaths/day (Italy) to 7k deaths/day (Spain). We do not know if that is going to be the case or not, for example the US actually had fewer deaths today than yesterday, hopefully, because New York has peaked. I am under no illusions that the number is not going to increase, it will. However, my main point was that to say that the US is doing worse than most big EU countries, they need to actually have 5k+ and up to 10k deaths/day during the peak. Any exercise that does not take into consideration the size of the population is misleading.
I totally agree with Germany, they seem to be the one big country in Western Europe who is doing this a bit better (though it is still a bit early to judge). I still do not know why though? It might be that they are behind in the curve compared to Spain/Italy/France, with the number of infections being as high as those countries primarily because Germans are doing more testing. My hunch would be that Germany would suffer less than the other countries, but who knows these things. Sure as hell, I would have preferred to be in Munich instead of Santa Clara. Why did I change countries 3 months ago?!
PS: From the curve you posted, the UK and the US seem to be in worse shape than the other countries. The US, in particular, is incredibly hard to predict because of the size and because different states are behaving differently. Washington and California were hit first, but seem to have been doing much better now. New York is probably at the peak and hopefully will decline next week, but then you might expect other states like Florida or Georgia to start having massive fatalities. And then, you have states like Oklahama who are yet to issue a stay-at-home order, which means that they might peak quite later, maybe even in May. So, I wouldn't be surprised if the US has a lower peak when it comes to deaths (again, adjusted for population), but the peak to be longer than in the European countries.
What's your evidence for this level optimism? What has Biden done that makes you seriously doubt a Biden DoJ wouldn't prosecute Trump?
Oh man, feels like I never left (this thread)
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Devastating news.
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