The vaccines | vaxxed boosted unvaxxed? New poll

[tombombadil]

Is the SA variant a bit of a one off or is it something that is likely to happen more?

The more people get infected, the more chances there are for these kinds of variants. Hence more reason to control reopenings. Especially when vaccines are already being rolled out.

 

[jojojo]

Novavax (if approved) is expected to be available in the UK in Q3, with 60m doses for delivery before the end of 2021. I've not seen a timeline for the US, though I read they're looking at a ramp up in Q2.

I don't know what the timeline will be if they decide they want the vaccine updated to add more protection against the SA variant. The mod to the vaccine itself is apparently quick to make.

Formulating it as a cocktail, with old style and new mutation style spikes and testing it for safety might take longer I guess. I can't see them being able to test efficacy quickly - other than as a lab test, blood antibody thing. Is that how they manage changes to the flu vaccine?

Plus whatever time it takes to test/ramp up volume production. That sounds like Q4 at earliest or 2022 for a modified version to me. Meanwhile I guess a lot of attention will be on how it performs in terms of stopping serious illness. Another, larger trial in SA as well perhaps, to get a higher volume of data. The SA trial numbers currently have big +/- error bars on the efficacy figures.

 

[Kasper]

Wasn`t there a table in here posted by someone showing how many doses EU and UK had ordered from which manufacturer (and in which quarter to be expected)? Can`t find a good overview online but I remember seeing something like that in here.

 

[F-Red]

Wasn`t there a table in here posted by someone showing how many doses EU and UK had ordered from which manufacturer (and in which quarter to be expected)? Can`t find a good overview online but I remember seeing something like that in here.

This one?

I can't see what the EU has ordered, but the UK has ordered 30 million, so is hardly left out. Hopefully everyone will get theirs on schedule, if approved of course.

Vaccine	Progress	Doses ordered	Approval	Deployment
Pfizer–BioNTech	phase III clinical trials	40 million	2 December 2020	8 December 2020
Oxford–AstraZeneca	phase III clinical trials	100 million	30 December 2020[12]	4 January 2021[13]
Moderna	phase III clinical trials	17 million[10]	8 January 2021[10]	Pending
Novavax	phase III clinical trials	60 million	Pending	Pending
Valneva	phase I/II clinical trials	60 million	Pending	Pending
GSK/Sanofi Pasteur	phase I/II clinical trials	60 million	Pending	Pending
Janssen	phase III clinical trials	30 million	Pending	Pending

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_vaccination_programme_in_the_United_Kingdom#Vaccines_on_order

 

[carpy]

J&J results are in:
66% efficacy (72% in the US part of the US part of the trial).

 

[tombombadil]

J&J results are in:
66% efficacy (72% in the US part of the US part of the trial).

Man, the traditional vaccines have been underwhelming. Both this and Sinovac are in the 60+% categories. I just hope they are at least equally good in dealing with the south africa and UK variants.

 

[BD]

Am I imagining things, or were there rumours going around last week that the J&J vaccine was hitting 90+% efficacy?

 

[jojojo]

J&J results are in:
66% efficacy (72% in the US part of the US part of the trial).

J&J (single dose, fridge storage) is a great option at 66% efficacy. I know they're running a twin dose trial as well, so that could be important.

As usual it's going to be the detailed data that matters. I'm particularly interested in why they got better numbers from the US trial. If that means it's strong against the original virus, but significantly weaker against the mutations, it'll be important.

 

[carpy]

Am I imagining things, or were there rumours going around last week that the J&J vaccine was hitting 90+% efficacy?

No, you're not imagining it but the rumours were obviously wrong.

 

[Traub]

J&J (single dose, fridge storage) is a great option at 66% efficacy. I know they're running a twin dose trial as well, so that could be important.

As usual it's going to be the detailed data that matters. I'm particularly interested in why they got better numbers from the US trial. If that means it's strong against the original virus, but significantly weaker against the mutations, it'll be important.

I'm not sure when the trial was conducted, but this is concerning:

"The level of protection against moderate and severe COVID-19 infection was 72% in the US, 66% in Latin America and 57% in South Africa, 28 days post-vaccination."

57% in SA may point to the variant. I'm hoping this was extremely effective for younger ages, so we can target older ages and vulnerable on the better vaccines, and the general population on this one.

Source:
https://edition.cnn.com/2021/01/29/health/johnson-coronavirus-vaccine-results/index.html

 

[redshaw]

Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) Covid-19 Vaccine Shot Provides Strong Shield in Trial - Bloomberg

" In the more than 44,000-person study, the vaccine prevented 66% of moderate to severe cases of Covid-19, according to a company statement on Friday. And it was particularly effective at stopping severe disease, preventing 85% of severe infections and 100% of hospitalizations and deaths. "

 

[jojojo]

Found a few more details:
Geographically, the level of protection for the combined endpoints of moderate and severe disease varied: 72% in the United States; 66% in Latin American countries; and 57% in South Africa, 28 days post-vaccination. The investigational vaccine was reportedly 85% effective in preventing severe/critical COVID-19 across all geographical regions. No deaths related to COVID-19 were reported in the vaccine group, while 5 deaths in the placebo group were related to COVID-19. Overall, there were 16 deaths in the placebo group, and 3 deaths in the vaccine group.
https://www.nih.gov/news-events/new...eleased?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter

That's not bad at all when it comes to preventing serious illness.

 

[Raoul]

Seems like we're in a race to get shots in arms before the variants spread too far.

 

[Smores]

Given it's much easier to transport and store it still seems likely it'll be the one used for a mass roll out?

 

[jojojo]

Actually I've just noticed that J&J are quoting efficacy at preventing moderate/severe cases. Novavax quoted efficacy against mild/moderate/severe cases. That's confusing.

 

[Classical Mechanic]

Actually I've just noticed that J&J are quoting efficacy at preventing moderate/severe cases. Novavax quoted efficacy against mild/moderate/severe cases. That's confusing.

Is the Oxford vaccine 60% effective against all cases and 100% effective against moderate and severe cases?

 

[Balljy]

Given it's much easier to transport and store it still seems likely it'll be the one used for a mass roll out?

That and the Oxford one, yeah. I'm not sure of the price of the J&J vaccine though.

 

[tombombadil]

Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) Covid-19 Vaccine Shot Provides Strong Shield in Trial - Bloomberg

" In the more than 44,000-person study, the vaccine prevented 66% of moderate to severe cases of Covid-19, according to a company statement on Friday. And it was particularly effective at stopping severe disease, preventing 85% of severe infections and 100% of hospitalizations and deaths. "

Found a few more details:
Geographically, the level of protection for the combined endpoints of moderate and severe disease varied: 72% in the United States; 66% in Latin American countries; and 57% in South Africa, 28 days post-vaccination. The investigational vaccine was reportedly 85% effective in preventing severe/critical COVID-19 across all geographical regions. No deaths related to COVID-19 were reported in the vaccine group, while 5 deaths in the placebo group were related to COVID-19. Overall, there were 16 deaths in the placebo group, and 3 deaths in the vaccine group.
https://www.nih.gov/news-events/new...eleased?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter

That's not bad at all when it comes to preventing serious illness.

You are right. In hind sight, after rereading, for an apples to apples comparison, considering it is a single shot, preventing severe illness at 85% compared to Pfizer's 95% is very good. Although it is lower compared to Pfizer's 90% rate at preventing any illness vs 66%. Which is still better than a flu vaccine. I guess we mustn't be too pampered and also must take into account that this is single shot. I'd probably take this vs AZN's shot if I could only take a single shot.

 

[Pogue Mahone]

Actually I've just noticed that J&J are quoting efficacy at preventing moderate/severe cases. Novavax quoted efficacy against mild/moderate/severe cases. That's confusing.

The primary endpoint of the vaccines licensed thus far has always been any symptomatic case. If J&J are only quoting efficacy at preventing moderate/severe cases that would imply the ‘true’ figure is even worse than 66%.

 

[Pogue Mahone]

You are right. In hind sight, after rereading, for an apples to apples comparison, considering it is a single shot, preventing severe illness at 85% compared to Pfizer's 95% is very good. Although it is lower compared to Pfizer's 90% rate at preventing any illness vs 66%. Which is still better than a flu vaccine. I guess we mustn't be too pampered and also must take into account that this is single shot. I'd probably take this vs AZN's shot if I could only take a single shot.

66% is preventing mod/severe disease. We don’t have a figure for any illness from J&J. Which makes me worry it’s a lot lower.

 

[Pogue Mahone]

100% reduction in hospitalisations is encouraging though. Has anyone found the full press release yet?

 

[Pogue Mahone]

Found it.

 

[massi83]

.

The primary endpoint of the vaccines licensed thus far has always been any symptomatic case. If J&J are only quoting efficacy at preventing moderate/severe cases that would imply the ‘true’ figure is even worse than 66%.

Personally I pretty much only care how it prevents hospitalisations (or worse). Obviously it is better if it prevents milder cases also, but don't see it as that important.

 

[tombombadil]

66% is preventing mod/severe disease. We don’t have a figure for any illness from J&J. Which makes me worry it’s a lot lower.

Oh dear. Thanks for the clarification.

 

[Pogue Mahone]

Also found the study protocol. To be fair, moderate/severe illness was the primary endpoint. Mild disease was one of the secondary endpoints.

 

[Pogue Mahone]

.

Personally I pretty much only care how it prevents hospitalisations (or worse). Obviously it is better if it prevents milder cases also, but don't see it as that important.

Yeah, it’s not really that important. Less important anyway. Looks like they never had any expectation for it to be sterilising anyway, based on the endpoints they’re looking at.

 

[jojojo]

The primary endpoint of the vaccines licensed thus far has always been any symptomatic case. If J&J are only quoting efficacy at preventing moderate/severe cases that would imply the ‘true’ figure is even worse than 66%.

It might not mean that though, it depends on the ratios of mild/moderate/severe across the vaccinated/placebo. I guess a reminder that press releases are only ever part of the story. It does make comparisons more complicated though. I think the stat everyone cares about are really the severe/critical cases so it's not necessarily a big deal.

I do think the mutation issue is a bigger deal. In particular I think the news from the Novavax SA trial, that prior covid infection doesn't protect against the new SA variant is important. Though again we'll need more numbers to know if prior infection reduced the severity of illness. I suspect it does mean that the inactivated virus type vaccines for example could find their efficacy taking a very fast tumble.

 

[Pogue Mahone]

Here’s how they defined moderate/severe illness.

In the study, the definition of severe COVID-19 disease included laboratory-confirmed SARS-CoV-2 and one or more of the following: signs consistent with severe systemic illness, admission to an intensive care unit, respiratory failure, shock, organ failure or death, among other factors. Moderate COVID-19 disease was defined as laboratory-confirmed SARS-CoV-2 and one or more of the following: evidence of pneumonia, deep vein thrombosis, shortness of breath or abnormal blood oxygen saturation above 93%, abnormal respiratory rate (≥20); or two or more systemic symptoms suggestive of COVID-19.

 

[golden_blunder]

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-55852698

 

[Pogue Mahone]

The EMA have approved the AZ vaccine. No restrictions re age (other than over 18s only)

Big 24 hours for vaccine news!

 

[MikeUpNorth]

Have to say, I did not expect the EU to be the first country/block in the world to go full nationalist and implement vaccine export controls. Poor show.

“The protections and safety of our citizens is a priority and the challenges we now face left us with no choice but to act,” EU Trade Commissioner Valdis Dombrovskis told reporters on Friday in Brussels. “This is a race against the clock -- we cannot lose time because of vaccines not being delivered on schedule.”

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...g-global-battle-for-doses?srnd=premium-europe

Let the vaccine war commence, I guess?

 

[gormless]

So fair to say the Johnson and Johnson jab isn’t what we were hoping for? Especially after somebody posted rumours of 100%

 

[Wolverine]

The EMA have approved the AZ vaccine. No restrictions re age (other than over 18s only)

Big 24 hours for vaccine news!

Great news, came in a bit late today mind you! Hope its advertised in the news. All my morning over 70s AZ vaccination clinic were quoting Germany with the news yesterday so had to do a lot of reassuring.

 

[Wolverine]

So fair to say the Johnson and Johnson jab isn’t what we were hoping for? Especially after somebody posted rumours of 100%

As mentioned, not a single hospitalised case or death in vaccine arm is good news. That too with a single jab. In real terms that is very significant. Plus there is data from its two-dose trial still to come.

I think if the mRNA's are utilised now for the elderly and extremely vulnerable we could potentially use this for the younger population especially as logistically useful (as stored in a fridge) so will be useful for community pharmacies. Maybe two if dramatic benefit in relevant clinical endpoints.

 

[Regulus Arcturus Black]

Have to say, I did not expect the EU to be the first country/block in the world to go full nationalist and implement vaccine export controls. Poor show.


https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...g-global-battle-for-doses?srnd=premium-europe

Let the vaccine war commence, I guess?

Inevitable after the delays, they aren’t blocking anything, just require approval.
Makes me think they suspect vaccines are being provided first to highest bidders and they simply want to prevent that.

 

[MikeUpNorth]

Inevitable after the delays, they aren’t blocking anything, just require approval.
Makes me think they suspect vaccines are being provided first to highest bidders and they simply want to prevent that.

Sure they are.

 

[Phil]

Have to say, I did not expect the EU to be the first country/block in the world to go full nationalist and implement vaccine export controls. Poor show.



https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...g-global-battle-for-doses?srnd=premium-europe

Let the vaccine war commence, I guess?

This is so so ugly.

 

[Regulus Arcturus Black]

Sure they are.

Maybe, I don’t know. The entire vaccine race is every bit as disgusting as you’d expect though.
The numbers in UAE & Israel especially verge on despicable.

 

[MikeUpNorth]

Pfizer response to EU export ban threat is that it might move production:

In response to the EU’s threat, Pfizer this week told a Senate hearing that it would consider shifting production of its vaccine to the United States in a bid to avoid any export ban.

“It’s obviously critical that governments don’t impose export restrictions or trade barriers,” Pfizer Australia and New Zealand medical director Krishan Thiru said.

“Should that happen we will explore what options are available. We have large scale of manufacturing across the US and Europe. No determination has been made at this point in time about switching the source of our manufacture of vaccinations.”

https://www.theguardian.com/austral...rope-over-certainty-of-covid-vaccine-supplies

 

[711]

Pfizer response to EU export ban threat is that it might move production:


https://www.theguardian.com/austral...rope-over-certainty-of-covid-vaccine-supplies

I don't know how easy it is to transfer production but it must make companies think twice about where to site their production facilities in future.