The vaccines | vaxxed boosted unvaxxed? New poll

[MikeUpNorth]

I don't know how easy it is to transfer production but it must make companies think twice about where to site their production facilities in future.

Yeah, I can't help but think the EU have approached this problem in completely the wrong way. Through a combination of a botched procurement process and plain bad luck that the vaccine sites in the EU are underperforming, they have a massive shortage of vaccines. Instead of throwing their toys out of the pram and attacking the manufacturers, they could instead have opted to negotiate with other countries to purchase a share of their supply in the short term, in exchange for a chunky fee and other trade sweeteners.

If the goal is to actually get more vaccine supply, I don't see how this heated public spat with Astrazeneca (and Pfizer) is going to help? They can't magic vaccine out of thin air. It makes me think this whole storm is more about managing PR and trying to avoid blame than it is about actually securing vaccine supply.

 

[africanspur]

Think we've been a bit spoilt by the Pfizer and Moderna numbers to be honest.

Any vaccine with decent efficacy at preventing deaths and hospitalisation is superb, multiple vaccines being able to do the same (especially as different areas start to descend into vaccine nationalism) is incredible news.

Probably even better for those from thr global South too, means there will be more candidates for them. A single shot jab in particular, in countries where its difficult enough already reaching people for medical problems, will be an incredible positive.

 

[Mickeza]

If Pfizer are in breach of contract by not delivering to Canada and UK because the EU effectively steal that vaccine by blocking the export then they aren’t going to produce there long term. They can’t block vaccine they have no legal claim over regardless of some other dispute with another manufacture. Bullying suppliers they’re reliant on that could manufacture elsewhere and sell thrice over is a very stupid move.

It’s also completely irrelevant what’s in the EU contract with AZ if the UK contract states any vaccine made in the UK goes to the UK until the 100m order is fulfilled. You’ve got to think “best endeavours” discounts any action that would breach another contract. The EU contract I’ve seen also explicitly states EU manufactured vaccine in section 5.1 is used to supply the EU initial order - which doesn’t include UK factories.

 

[jojojo]

AZ press conference underway. Basically with a, "we're trying," and advising countries to take advantage of the "flexible timing" of the second dose to give people their first vaccine as soon as the stock gets delivered, because in 12 weeks time there will be plenty of product for second doses.

Also a reminder that UK manufactured stock can be used to meet other demand, provided that they can do it in addition to delivering their UK committed supply. By which I assume they mean the argument has changed tack to focus on the idea that it's not about waiting until after the full 100m doses have been delivered, but after the 2m weekly commitment (or whatever it is now) is met. Which I suspect was always the reality before the PR sabre rattling stuff got underway.

 

[MikeUpNorth]

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...ron-coronavirus-vaccine-exports-eu-controlled

Macron not coming across well here, I think. Weird that he cites the discredited 'news' about the AZ vaccine being only 8% effective in older people.

 

[Pogue Mahone]

Think we've been a bit spoilt by the Pfizer and Moderna numbers to be honest.

Any vaccine with decent efficacy at preventing deaths and hospitalisation is superb, multiple vaccines being able to do the same (especially as different areas start to descend into vaccine nationalism) is incredible news.

Probably even better for those from thr global South too, means there will be more candidates for them. A single shot jab in particular, in countries where its difficult enough already reaching people for medical problems, will be an incredible positive.

Yeah, when you take a step back from the (inevitable) undignified squabbling over supplies and nit-picking over relative efficacies, the fact that we have this many vaccines, all highly effective - less than 12 months after the first cases outside China - is arguably the most remarkable scientific triumph in any of our lifetimes. Possibly one of the greatest achievements of mankind.

Would not have believed anyone who told me this was possible this time last year. Thank feck for biotech innovation. We’d be fubar’d without it.

 

[jojojo]

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...ron-coronavirus-vaccine-exports-eu-controlled

Macron not coming across well here, I think. Weird that he cites the discredited 'news' about the AZ vaccine being only 8% effective in older people.

I'm finding it hard to see these things as anything but PR directed at their own voters.

Big pharma is the epitome of globalisation and global supply chains. The idea that individual countries (or even regions) can just shut their doors is ridiculous. Just to take the Novavax vaccine and its "UK factory". It will rely on specialist chemical reagents manufactured in countries including the US and Sweden. All Novavax vaccines rely on a saponin produced by soap bark trees in Chile. That's before you get onto some of the single use bioreactor types that may all come from a single factory in the world. Then there's the vials and syringes that sound trivial until you hear the reason many US sites can't get a sixth dose out of the Pfizer vials is because they can't ramp up the supply of the right kind of syringe.

The US is probably the closest to self sufficiency, or could get there quickly - but quickly in this industry is 6-18 months depending on what you need to build. Not the days/weeks that the politicians are trying to haggle over.

 

[Balljy]

Yeah, when you take a step back from the (inevitable) undignified squabbling over supplies and nit-picking over relative efficacies, the fact that we have this many vaccines, all highly effective - less than 12 months after the first cases outside China - is arguably the most remarkable scientific triumph in any of our lifetimes. Possibly one of the greatest achievements of mankind.

Would not have believed anyone who told me this was possible this time last year. Thank feck for biotech innovation. We’d be fubar’d without it.

Yeah, that's so true. It's also noticeable that the squabbling and vaccination figures are coming from rich countries and most people here are from relatively rich countries. There will be places at the back of the queue and waiting months for the pharma companies / WHO to provide them with cheap discounted vaccines.

I hope that these sort of spats don't induce pharma to withhold supplies to poorer countries, but with the EU and no doubt later down the line other richer countries putting the foot down I can only see one outcome on that.

 

[africanspur]

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...ron-coronavirus-vaccine-exports-eu-controlled

Macron not coming across well here, I think. Weird that he cites the discredited 'news' about the AZ vaccine being only 8% effective in older people.

What a fecking appalling comment for a head of state to be making, especially when you're the head of state of apparently one of the most vaccine skeptic populations in the world and especially when you acknowledge that you haven't seen the data yourself. Jesus wept.

Assuming the translation is correct of course.

 

[africanspur]

Yeah, when you take a step back from the (inevitable) undignified squabbling over supplies and nit-picking over relative efficacies, the fact that we have this many vaccines, all highly effective - less than 12 months after the first cases outside China - is arguably the most remarkable scientific triumph in any of our lifetimes. Possibly one of the greatest achievements of mankind.

Would not have believed anyone who told me this was possible this time last year. Thank feck for biotech innovation. We’d be fubar’d without it.

I would very much class it as one of the greatest achievements in our history to be honest. Obviously there's not much great about being in a pandemic but think how much more awful this would have been even 20 years ago? How quickly would we have been able to develop a vaccine, if at all? How many people would have been able to work from home or be educated from home?

Probably would have been a 'wear a mask and good luck' attitude for most.

 

[MikeUpNorth]

What a fecking appalling comment for a head of state to be making, especially when you're the head of state of apparently one of the most vaccine skeptic populations in the world and especially when you acknowledge that you haven't seen the data yourself. Jesus wept.

Assuming the translation is correct of course.

Agreed. And the rest of the interview is basically Macron trying to play his usual game of dressing up nationalism as multilateralism.

 

[Classical Mechanic]

EU looking more and more like the Tory party every day. Welcome to the dark side chaps.

 

[Pexbo]

Does the J&J and Novavax vaccines do anything to the UK HIT schedule?

I think the original schedule was every adult by September but that was when there was only the Pfizer and AZ vaccines approved. Since then we should have added 17m Moderna and 60m Novavax to the schedule and as manufacturing was the major bottle neck and with loads of vaccine centres in place we should surely see the numbers start ramping up soon and the September schedule brought forward?

Or was September already an optimistic target calculated not on what knew we had access to but what would probably be approved?

 

[GlasgowRedz]

Does the J&J and Novavax vaccines do anything to the UK HIT schedule?

I think the original schedule was every adult by September but that was when there was only the Pfizer and AZ vaccines approved. Since then we should have added 17m Moderna and 60m Novavax to the schedule and as manufacturing was the major bottle neck and with loads of vaccine centres in place we should surely see the numbers start ramping up soon and the September schedule brought forward?

Or was September already an optimistic target calculated not on what knew we had access to but what would probably be approved?

I'm sure I read that they don't expect to receive any of the Novavax vaccine until after July, so unless the J&J one is approved and delivered more quickly then it'll still be September

 

[Pexbo]

I'm sure I read that they don't expect to receive any of the Novavax vaccine until after July, so unless the J&J one is approved and delivered more quickly then it'll still be September

Ok thanks, that’s disappointing.

 

[GazTheLegend]

EU looking more and more like the Tory party every day. Welcome to the dark side chaps.

Very weird times. The entire thing feels like a gigantic deflection and it's hard not to wonder if giving the keys to vaccine supply to the European Commission is causing huge arguments behind the scenes, there seems to be a lot of anger from Holland and Germany in particular? (Though I'm pretty ill informed on that, if anyone knows more about it - just taken from 15 mins of TV and a German anchor that was on BBC last night)

 

[Penna]

Another vaccine being developed in Italy, has just completed Phase one trialling:

A Covid-19 vaccine developed by Italian company ReiThera is expected to be available from September, Italian pharmaceutical agency AIFA said on Wednesday.

"It will take a few more months to verify its effectiveness and safety," AIFA President Giorgio Palù told the Sky TG24 news channel. "It could be administered after the summer."

"Phase one (of the vaccine trial) has just been completed. Phase two and three mean tens of thousands of subjects will need to be vaccinated to verify the effectiveness and safety" of the vaccine, he explained.

Health Minister Roberto Speranza said the Italian state would put public money into ReiThera, which is based at Castel Romano on the outskirts of Rome.

https://www.thelocal.it/20210127/co...ra-vaccine-set-to-be-available-from-september

 

[MikeUpNorth]

Very weird times. The entire thing feels like a gigantic deflection and it's hard not to wonder if giving the keys to vaccine supply to the European Commission is causing huge arguments behind the scenes, there seems to be a lot of anger from Holland and Germany in particular? (Though I'm pretty ill informed on that, if anyone knows more about it - just taken from 15 mins of TV and a German anchor that was on BBC last night)

There’s basically a massive blame game going on in Europe over vaccine supply. Domestic politicians are getting heat and seeking to pass the blame to the EU commission. The EU commission is then seeking to pass it to the vaccine manufacturers. It’s not helpful to anyone.

Ultimately, once this is all over, Europe needs to take stock and consider what the EU is good at and what it struggles with. It’s fantastic at negotiating trade deals and coordinating competing priorities of many states to protect a single market. It’s good at running a justice system and unifying divergent legal jurisdictions. It’s reasonably good at regulating complex and novel subjects ahead of other blocks (data, competition etc).

But it’s pretty terrible at executive functions. It’s really not designed to be able to act quickly or nimbly in response to rapidly changing events. Let the EU do what it does best, but don’t put it in charge of disaster response! The biggest mistake would be to learn the wrong lessons and think the solution is to give the commission an even bigger role in these types of situation. And we’re already seeing some people going in that direction by suggesting the EU should invoke emergency powers to take over direct control of vaccine manufacture from the pharma companies.

 

[Pogue Mahone]

There’s basically a massive blame game going on in Europe over vaccine supply. Domestic politicians are getting heat and seeking to pass the blame to the EU commission. The EU commission is then seeking to pass it to the vaccine manufacturers. It’s not helpful to anyone.

Ultimately, once this is all over, Europe needs to take stock and consider what the EU is good at and what it struggles with. It’s fantastic at negotiating trade deals and coordinating competing priorities of many states to protect a single market. It’s good at running a justice system and unifying divergent legal jurisdictions. It’s reasonably good at regulating complex and novel subjects ahead of other blocks (data, competition etc).

But it’s pretty terrible at executive functions. It’s really not designed to be able to act quickly or nimbly in response to rapidly changing events. Let the EU do what it does best, but don’t put it in charge of disaster response! The biggest mistake would be to learn the wrong lessons and think the solution is to give the commission an even bigger role in these types of situation. And we’re already seeing some people going in that direction by suggesting the EU should invoke laws to take over direct control of vaccine manufacture from the pharma companies.

I agree with this.

The whole disaster response thing needs a rethink internationally. Learning from countries and organisations that got the big calls correct. Then deciding who should be coordinating the response. As well as the EU’s sluggish response the WHO hasn’t covered itself in glory either.

 

[jojojo]

I'm sure I read that they don't expect to receive any of the Novavax vaccine until after July, so unless the J&J one is approved and delivered more quickly then it'll still be September

The Novavax is described as delivering 60m doses in the "second half of the year" by:
https://www.gov.uk/government/news/novavax-publishes-positive-efficacy-data-for-its-covid-19-vaccine

In the US Novavax are talking about 35m doses per month being available from probably "May or June". In other words expect a slow start before hitting volume production. I would guess there UK plant (and in the EU) will follow a similar but slightly delayed timeline.

J&J expect to have volume production in the US by the end of April, but I've not seen their estimates for the UK/EU supply.

 

[K Stand Knut]

My Auntie has had the vaccine this week and has developed symptoms so needs a test.

is this unusual or something to worry about?

EDIT - she has just said that she has just had a sore throat. Not lost her sense of taste but says everything tastes like sour milk

 

[Skills]

When are the J&J and Novavax suppliers due for the UK?

 

[jojojo]

When are the J&J and Novavax suppliers due for the UK?

Second half of the year for Novavax. Probably similar for high volume from J&J.

 

[Skills]

Second half of the year for Novavax. Probably similar for high volume from J&J.

Thanks! So I guess we're completely reliant on AZ, Pfizer and then Moderna when it comes in q2 for now.

What will be interesting to see is, what kind of booster effect each of these vaccines have on each other. So for example if you could use the J&J or Novavax as boosters next winter.

 

[jojojo]

Thanks! So I guess we're completely reliant on AZ, Pfizer and then Moderna when it comes in q2 for now.

What will be interesting to see is, what kind of booster effect each of these vaccines have on each other. So for example if you could use the J&J or Novavax as boosters next winter.

I think a big issue for next winter will be how to deal with the mutations. The boosters will probably be a new cocktail.

There are also some techy reasons why AZ may not be a good booster for itself. So it will be quite important (assuming we all need boosters) to study the mix and match behaviours. I suspect we'll be seeing trials of that through the summer.

 

[11101]

Italy has approved Astrazeneca for over 18s but recommends against use in over 55s. Health workers have already been done so i'm not sure who will get it, as all the remaining priority groups are outside that age range.

https://www.aifa.gov.it/web/guest/-/aifa-autorizzato-vaccino-astrazeneca

And I know I seem to be shitting on the UK government a lot in this thread. To be fair they’ve done very well at securing so much supplies and injecting so many people already. So if the gamble they’re taking (by assuming all vaccines are equivalent) pays off then they’ve played an absolute blinder.

I'm not sure taking a risk on that scale could be considered playing a blinder, even if it does pay off. Blind luck, maybe.

 

[Pogue Mahone]

Italy has approved Astrazeneca for over 18s but recommends against use in over 55s. Health workers have already been done so i'm not sure who will get it, as all the remaining priority groups are outside that age range.

https://www.aifa.gov.it/web/guest/-/aifa-autorizzato-vaccino-astrazeneca

That seems crazy to me. All of Italy’s priority groups are elderly? What about teachers? Police? Supermarket workers? etc etc

 

[11101]

That seems crazy to me. All of Italy’s priority groups are elderly? What about teachers? Police? Supermarket workers? etc etc

We're having this discussion over two threads but the priority list is:

1. Frontline health workers (1.4 million)
2. Nursing home staff and residents (570,000)
3. Over-80s (4.4 million)
4. 60-79 year olds
5. People of any age with at least one chronic health condition that puts them at higher risk of falling seriously ill with Covid-19
6. Sociodemographic groups at significantly higher risk of severe illness or death
7. High-risk teachers and school staff
8. All other teachers and school staff
9. Key workers and others who work in high-risk settings
10. Prison wardens and prisoners
11. People with less serious chronic health conditions
12. Everyone else

The first three are considered Phase 1.

 

[hmchan]

Yet another brilliant stuff from the WHO. UK should quit this corrupted organization asap.

https://www.itv.com/news/2021-01-30...es-once-most-vulnerable-receive-jabs-who-says

 

[Mickeza]

Yet another brilliant stuff from the WHO. UK should quit this corrupted organization asap.

https://www.itv.com/news/2021-01-30...es-once-most-vulnerable-receive-jabs-who-says

Has Biden rejoined WHO?

 

[Heardy]

We're having this discussion over two threads but the priority list is:

1. Frontline health workers (1.4 million)
2. Nursing home staff and residents (570,000)
3. Over-80s (4.4 million)
4. 60-79 year olds
5. People of any age with at least one chronic health condition that puts them at higher risk of falling seriously ill with Covid-19
6. Sociodemographic groups at significantly higher risk of severe illness or death
7. High-risk teachers and school staff
8. All other teachers and school staff
9. Key workers and others who work in high-risk settings
10. Prison wardens and prisoners
11. People with less serious chronic health conditions
12. Everyone else

The first three are considered Phase 1.

Prisoners given priority status - feck that.

 

[jojojo]

Interesting article on the maths behind the key workers v (mostly) age driven prioritisation which sets the current UK/JCVI list.

https://www.theguardian.com/society...riority-for-vaccines-warn-government-advisers

Basically arguing that while public opinion might run with the key work argument (at least for certain groups like teachers and the police), the life-saving (and hospitalisation) statistics argue for sticking to the age/medical histories driven models.

I suspect we'll see a compromise targeting some groups - like pulling key workers in the over 50 group forward. Complicated balancing act for the JCVI.

 

[Regulus Arcturus Black]

Yet another brilliant stuff from the WHO. UK should quit this corrupted organization asap.

https://www.itv.com/news/2021-01-30...es-once-most-vulnerable-receive-jabs-who-says

I mean, they are correct of course, unless you’re an absolute cnut who hates anyone outside your own country and wants more vulnerable people in other countto die whilst tens of millions of non-risk groups get vaccinated in rich countries, how can you deny that?

What should happen in a perfect World is that all countries get vaccines in batches based on per capita of risk groups. Once that is out of the way you’ve move on to phase 2.

Vaccinating the entire population of Israel whilst for example vulnerable populations in Peru die in huge numbers, obviously isn’t moral.

 

[Skills]

Interesting article on the maths behind the key workers v (mostly) age driven prioritisation which sets the current UK/JCVI list.

https://www.theguardian.com/society...riority-for-vaccines-warn-government-advisers

Basically arguing that while public opinion might run with the key work argument (at least for certain groups like teachers and the police), the life-saving (and hospitalisation) statistics argue for sticking to the age/medical histories driven models.

I suspect we'll see a compromise targeting some groups - like pulling key workers in the over 50 group forward. Complicated balancing act for the JCVI.

Isn't the argument for vaccinating key workers, that you stop them spreading the virus to the vulnerable people they come in contact with?

Which is why I don't think professions like teachers should be anywhere that priority list. And if they have vulnerable people in their homes, those individuals should have been vaccinated by the time schools open anyway.

 

[GlasgowRedz]

I mean, they are correct of course, unless you’re an absolute cnut who hates anyone outside your own country and wants more vulnerable people in other countto die whilst tens of millions of non-risk groups get vaccinated in rich countries, how can you deny that?

What should happen in a perfect World is that all countries get vaccines in batches based on per capita of risk groups. Once that is out of the way you’ve move on to phase 2.

Vaccinating the entire population of Israel whilst for example vulnerable populations in Peru die in huge numbers, obviously isn’t moral.

Not only that but vaccinating an entire country while the virus runs through poorer countries is just giving the virus opportunity to mutate and become vaccine resistant.

Puts everyone back to square one.

We'll not be out of this until everyone is vaccinated.

 

[Balljy]

I was having a read around about the various vaccines efficacy figures and saw various articles saying that the Pfizer trial relied on subjects reporting symptoms whereas the Oxford trial for example tested all subjects regularly.

Does anyone know if this is definitely the case?

If it is it means that the efficacy figure is not comparable between different vaccines as there could be non-symptomatic cases not picked up by some trials. Obviously it is not an issue in terms of mortality and the person with no symptoms can carry on normally but it does mean that the 95% is the effectiveness at stopping symptomatic cases rather than all cases.

 

[jojojo]

Interesting interview with the Novavax CEO.
Summarising, they're expecting the full UK trial data to be available in 2/3 weeks (they need more cases to hit their full trial quota). They believe the MHRA will be the first to approve and that there may be some vaccine supply from them to the UK in April.

They still don't have a contract with the EU, though they are expecting to sign one.

They will manufacture about 1B doses in total across the US, UK, EU. They'll get a similar number from India mostly for distribution to low income countries and through the GAVI scheme.

They're working on modifying the vaccine, with an expectation that they can make a cocktail to improve efficacy across the mutations. They hope they'll be able to combine it with their flu vaccine. It may be an annual booster.

 

[Garethw]

I mean, they are correct of course, unless you’re an absolute cnut who hates anyone outside your own country and wants more vulnerable people in other countto die whilst tens of millions of non-risk groups get vaccinated in rich countries, how can you deny that?

What should happen in a perfect World is that all countries get vaccines in batches based on per capita of risk groups. Once that is out of the way you’ve move on to phase 2.

Vaccinating the entire population of Israel whilst for example vulnerable populations in Peru die in huge numbers, obviously isn’t moral.

I could understand it if we were sitting on our hands and saying feck everybody else, but The Uk has already raised/donated over £700 million to that fund to enable poorer countries to get vaccines.

 

[rcoobc]

From the EU's perspective, they seem to think that AZ is manufacturing the vaccine in the EU, they have agreed to supply them the vaccine, and they are not getting it.

If this was the UK, or any other country, our reaction would be similar. The very people decrying the EU right now would be asking UK Gov to do same thing.

Still unfortunate

 

[Brwned]

I was having a read around about the various vaccines efficacy figures and saw various articles saying that the Pfizer trial relied on subjects reporting symptoms whereas the Oxford trial for example tested all subjects regularly.

Does anyone know if this is definitely the case?

If it is it means that the efficacy figure is not comparable between different vaccines as there could be non-symptomatic cases not picked up by some trials. Obviously it is not an issue in terms of mortality and the person with no symptoms can carry on normally but it does mean that the 95% is the effectiveness at stopping symptomatic cases rather than all cases.

The main efficacy figure reported by all of the companies is the % reduction in symptomatic cases, so the comparisons are valid. Oxford did test for asymptomatic cases on top of symptomatic cases which provides additional insight, but it wasn't the main thing they focused on:

Outcomes The primary objective was to evaluate the efficacy of ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 vaccine against NAAT-confirmed COVID-19. The primary outcome was virologically confirmed, symptomatic COVID-19, defined as a NAAT-positive swab combined with at least one qualifying symptom (fever ≥37·8°C, cough, shortness of breath, or anosmia or ageusia).

Procedures Participants across all four trials were asked to contact the study site if they experienced specific symptoms associated with COVID-19 and received regular reminders to do so. Those who met symptomatic criteria had a clinical assessment, a swab taken for a nucleic acid amplification test (NAAT), and blood samples taken for safety and immunogenicity. In the UK and Brazil, the list of qualifying symptoms for swabbing included any one of the following: fever of at least 37·8°C, cough, shortness of breath, and anosmia or ageusia. In South Africa, the list of qualifying symptoms for swabbing was broader, and additionally included myalgia, chills, sore throat, headache, nasal congestion, diarrhoea, runny nose, fatigue, nausea, vomiting, and loss of appetite.

In all studies, if participants were tested outside of the trial, either in their workplace if a health-care worker or by private providers, these results were recorded and assessed by a masked independent endpoint review committee. The source of each swab was recorded plus the details of the test kit where available.

To test for asymptomatic infections, participants in COV002 in the UK were asked to provide a weekly self-administered nose and throat swab for NAAT testing from 1 week after first vaccination using kits provided by the UK Department of Health and Social Care (DHSC).

Source: Phase 3 Trial Results in The Lancet