Why Arsenal?
Why?
If it was only us and Leicester involved then there wouldn't have been much difference (apart from confidence). But Chelsea are also involved in the race.
Did you watch the game or just look up stats?
Play Villa.
Why?
To all intents and purposes, West Ham are already safe.
Doesn't even need to be a win. If Villa draw, West Ham are confirmed safe.
They're already safe
They are 100% safe if Villa loses points against Arsenal, but at the moment they are like 99% secure. It will not make a huge difference since their GD is much better.
Leicester certainly didn't collapse. They didn't look like overturning a multiple goal deficit once behind, but they weren't particularly bad either. A 3-0 loss flattered Spurs IMO. At Bournemouth they were horrendous second half, but against Sheff Utd and Spurs they've been fine. I certainly don't think they look done.
No, but a win against West Ham does mean Chelsea have to find a win to finish ahead of us, so we shouldn't be settling for a draw. It's an interesting dilemma as to whether we push for a couple of late goals if we find ourselves only winning 1-0 or 2-1 with 15 mins to go.
We're equal on goal difference with Leicester. The more we score the better for us cos Leicester will have to beat us by that many to go above us. We should try to hammer the hammers by as many goals as possible.
Come on! WHU are safe. The only way they can go down is if Villa overturn a 14 goal difference in their last 2 games (against Arsenal and WHU), Watford overturn a get 4 points from their games against Arsenal and City. The chances of that happening are close to 0
I think the big goal difference means West Ham are safe anyway to be honest.
Nope. They'd have to beat us by half as many goals as we beat West Ham by
Do you think Chelsea will finish outside the top 4?
I think you'll make it but it's not totally implausible that you won't. Two draws in your last two games, United beat West Ham, Leicester beat United - none of these results would be particularly shocking.
On their own, none of those results would be shocking. All together? You're looking at crazy odds.
What? I dont get it. if our goal difference is both 28 and we beat hammers 3-0 then they would need to beat us by 3 to be equal no? What am I being missing
If we beat or even draw with West Ham we can afford a draw at Leicester (to finish above them) regardless of what Chelsea do.So what's the consensus, we need to beat the Hammers 3:0 so we can lose to Leicester 1:0?
If we beat West Ham and Chelsea loses to Liverpool we can afford a draw at Leicester?
Sure but any combination of specific results is unlikely but one of them will happen. You'd get similarly crazy-ish odds for, say, Chelsea losing to Liverpool, United beating West Ham and drawing at Leicester, Chelsea beating Wolves. Or any other reasonable combination of these four games.
I think I’d be worried at having to play Liverpool and Wolves.
I don't think you will finish outside top 4 but there is realistic chance of that, not even impossible situation where Chelsea are expected to lose against bottom teams.
We play Leicester in the last game. For every GD they gain, we lose 1.
That every goal Leicester score (+1) is a goal conceded for us (-1).
That’s the nature of pretty much any accumulator tbf, unless you pick a bunch of dead cert results.
There's a broader side of results that see Chelsea miss out though:
Wolves need points for EL qualification too.
