The last few years have not been too bad in that regard - Trump voted out, Johnson forced out (and his party sure to be voted out next year), Scott Morrison voted out, Bolsonaro voted out….In different circumstances, Ukraine has held off attempts to instal a puppet regime while Putin has never looked more vulnerable. Based on last night’s results, it looks like Turkey is going to buck that trend unfortunately.
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At the contrary, I think most right wingers do not hesitate to show their feelings. They are annoyingly vocal.
People tend to be more happy to vote if they think they are voting for the winner though. Make the illusion that your candidate is winning (which is what every party does) and you increase the chances of that candidate winning. Same for polling.
Most of them are loud and annoying, yes, but no, there are a portion who are embarassed to admit what they are.
You see it all over, Brexit, Trump, Bolsonaro, Erdogan, they all overperform polling by a fair bit, its not a coincidence.
Erdogan looks safe. Still too many uneducated , nationalist people - like everywhere else.
I have seen nothing whatsoever (both scientifically and anectodely) to suggest that right wing voters are embarrassed to say that they are going to vote right wing.
I think as likely is that why the right wing outperform polling is that people who make polls tend to be educated, which makes them (on average) hold left wing views and thus inject their bias in the data/algorithm.
There is no consistent left-wing bias in polling, you're just remembering (or made aware of) the times when it happened, and not the times the right under performed.
Even if there is a bias, then I very much doubt it's so generic that we can apply it to everything from the US to Turkey. The political situations there are very different after all.
Honestly, the only time I can remember polls favored right wing and they turned to be wrong was in last US elections for the House.
In both last two US presidential elections, right wing did better than polls expected. In countless senate races in the US it has been the case for multiple cycles. Lula was supposed to win in a landslide but barely won. Orban and Erdogan were supposed to lose but won convincingly. Brexit was supposed to not happen.
It's not always as simple as left wing bias but in general in this polarized world of social media unpopular opinions are not voiced and polls are just not that accurate to take them into account.
For recent American mid term elections Biden was not so popular and the US economy wasnt doing the best with inflation and rising costs. Proudly claiming you'll vote for Democrats would just result in ridicule. What ended up is republicans creating their own echo chamber and then being surprised when reality was different.
Same thing happened to the Dems in 2016 and then every time with Erdogan.
These polls are just not accurate anymore but news media will keep spinning them because it generates clicks and interest
Why? You get asked via phone in a 1 on 1 conversation. Who is going to ridicule you, the person who is making the poll?
This theory of course works for sentiment analysis, but for polling, I do not see how it has any validity.
Off the top of my head, Le Pen (both times), Zemmour and the Austrian right-wing guy underperformed their most recent polls. Unless you think the same guys are doing polling for US senate races and Orban, I don't see how there's a connection.
Besides, you just listed some high profile ones, but how many elections have there been in the last decade? A whole lot. So if there's a clear left-wing bias in polling generally (not the US, since this thread is about Turkey), then there has to be clear data to show that.
My unscientific theory is you still feel embarrassed/judged because everyone is human at the end of the day.
I had a door to door poll/survey once I pressured into saying yeah I’ll vote for the popular candidate. Yeah face to face is different than phone calls but I feel the effect would be the same.
Unfortunately it seems as though you have to get rid of those people early. If they are there for too long and get their hooks in too deep - like Erdogan or Orban - it's almost impossible to beat them in the elections.
Erdoğan is the Man City of Turkish politics. Grim inevitability about him winning given how unlevel the playing field is.
Hopefully NATO strips him of all his titles
There's nothing "alarming" about any of the rhetoric used by the nationalist coalition. If anything, calling them "ultra-nationalist" is misleading, because if someone is from Europe / America and never been to Turkey, they're going to see that and assume it means something quite specific.
For a country that is living the nightmare that European countries often only imagine themselves to be living - illegal immigrants just pouring across the border without any attempts to stop them - the "ultra-nationalists" are actually remarkably restrained.
@Fener1907 . Seems that you are turkish or you have a special interest in tirkish politics. You mentioned not to trust andalou vote counting in election day but it seems they were on the dot with 0.5% margin error. Is because you think elections were rig?
Some murmurings that the opposition are considering contesting the legitimacy of the results.
At this point we're not getting rid of Erdogan until he croaks, hopefully sooner than later.
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Depressing stuff.. And Erdogan proven a liar very quickly. He claimed a few days ago he wasn’t going to cut a deal with Ogan.
The reality is, Oğan ran with the weight of Zafer Partisi behind him. Nobody was speaking about Oğan a few months ago just before he was announced as a candidate. All the work to garner attention and bring a more nationalist candidate to the election was done by Ümit Özdağ, the founder of Zafer Partisi. His first choice to be a candidate was Mansur Yavaş, the current mayor of Ankara. Oğan wasn't even his second candidate of choice; it was Muharrem İnce, but he threw a hissy fit and decided to run by himself. Özdağ will now more than likely back Kılıçdaroğlu, which is exactly what the opposition needed, as Özdağ's reputation as the central nationalist will bring votes he desperately needed to even have any chance in the second round. Furthermore, this might finally push İnce to back Kılıçdaroğlu, which would act as further proof to the nationalists that he's an acceptable candidate.
My current guess is, the incumbent president does have enough to get over the line, especially with a few cards up his sleeve, but what Oğan brings to the table won't give him anything resembling a commanding lead. If anything, Oğan has badly overestimated his appeal.
My current guess is, the incumbent president does have enough to get over the line, especially with a few cards up his sleeve, but what Oğan brings to the table won't give him anything resembling a commanding lead. If anything, Oğan has badly overestimated his appeal.
Providing that both candidates win the votes from the first round, I think Erdogan needs to win only 15-20% of votes that went for this guy and Ince, right?
It seems that it is going only one way regardless of what the opposition does. Still the closest election in decades so with a bit of luck, it should be the last one he wins.
That's correct, yeah, which is why I think they have enough to at least just get over the line. However, it looks as if Oğan's decision is provoking a backlash from nationalists. Özdağ himself won't go on a tirade, but Zafer members are apoplectic and not holding back. Özdağ has far more clout in the eyes of nationalists because he's the most unabashed Kemalist you'll find, so it will be interesting to see how it plays out.
What a cnut.
i was listening to a "start your week" political podcast...the bloke mentioned Erdogan polled ~60% right smack bang in the middle of the earthquake region.
Turkish politics is on a whole other level of "wtf".
Turkish politics is on a whole other level of "wtf".
Which podcast was this?
It's surprising in a way that it's not surprising at all.. people constantly vote against their best interests unfortunately. Might seem more absurd in this context coming from a recent disaster situation but unfortunately that doesn't seem to change people's minds much.
i'll find it and get back to ya!
It's a uk podcast called "the bunker", ill post the episode when i find it.
If Kılıçdaroğlu wins, Özdağ becomes interior minister. Oğan, on the other hand, secured absolutely nothing. That's exactly the momentum the opposition needed.
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Do we think there's a decent chance Erdogan loses here then?
I don't see how he would, given he nearly won outright last time and the third wheel supports him. It would have to be from turn-out, surely? But if people weren't motivated to vote against him last time, what makes this time special?
Can someone who knows what they're talking about explain this to me? It's a lot closer than in the first round, despite the third guy in the first round throwing in with Erdogan.
Because "the third guy" isn't the voice of the nationalists. Ümit Özdağ - the chairman of the nationalist party that pulled in all the votes for the nationalist alliance - is, and he threw his support behind Kılıçdaroğlu. However, the foreign media only reported what "the third guy" said because they don't know as much about Turkish politics as they ought to i.e. if you're getting paid to write about it.
Cheers, maybe there's hope...
I doubt it. It was nice for a second, but I didn't get my hopes up as much this time. Just going to get on with life whilst people who don't know better learn their lesson the very, very hard way. Lira's going for a ride tomorrow.
Depressing result to say the least. The country needed and deserved a change, but the people chose to not take that leap of faith even though the other same old option already showed clear limitations.