UPDATED!!! United vs Top 6 - An Injury/Availability Analysis - Still Happy With 6th?

Unam333

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First team "Ten Hag's" players:
Onana, Hojlund, Antony, Casemiro, Evans, Eriksen, Amrabat, Martinez, Mount - 9.

"Non Ten Hag's players" - Bruno, Dalot, Rashford, McTominay, Maguire, Lindelof, Shaw, Varane, AWB, Martial - 10.
6 out of those 10 (Bruno, Dalot, Rashford, McTominay, Shaw and Varane) are key players and realistically any other manager would only get rid of McTominay, the rest would still be core of the team.

Mainoo and Garnacho are from academy, not sure where to they fall, probably to "ETH players" bin as well.

The only players that we can really label as "ETH did not want" are Maguire, Martial and maybe AWB - only Maguire plays an important role this season.

ETH made a decision to sell Fred and Elanga.

Can we NOT call it Ten Hag squad at this point?
100% Ten Hag players:
Onana, Eriksen, Amrabat (loan) Weghorst (loan), Martinez, Mount, Antony, Malacia.
Total: 6+1 including Amrabat this year
 

Borys

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100% Ten Hag players:
Onana, Eriksen, Amrabat (loan) Weghorst (loan), Martinez, Mount, Antony, Malacia.
Total: 6+1 including Amrabat this year
What about Casemiro?

But this is IMO wrong way of looking at it. If a manager comes in he will want to keep the core of the team and then replace the weakest parts.
Rashford, Shaw, Dalot, Bruno and Varane are players that no manager would be willing to move - so do we really want to use them as an excuse that "this is not ETH team"?
McTominay was not bought by ETH but seems like he didn't want to let him go, so which category he falls under?
 

Unam333

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What about Casemiro?

But this is IMO wrong way of looking at it. If a manager comes in he will want to keep the core of the team and then replace the weakest parts.
Rashford, Shaw, Dalot, Bruno and Varane are players that no manager would be willing to move - so do we really want to use them as an excuse that "this is not ETH team"?
McTominay was not bought by ETH but seems like he didn't want to let him go, so which category he falls under?
Casemiro doesn't feel like a true Ten Hag signing.

We were chasing De Jong (would have been a true Ten Hag signing) the whole summer, the competition already started, the fans were getting frustrated by the back-to-back losses in the PL and the lack of new midfielders. The board probably informed Ten Hag that acquiring de Jong now would be very difficult, but Casemiro at least was available. Ten Hag caved in because he was already under pressure after losing the first two games and the summer transfer window would close after a week.
 

RedRocket08

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Really nice post, and i agree to everything besides the bolded part.
ETH is the man in charge and as the Manager the man with most influence to change things directly, over time, with both tactics, economy and transfers.
Thats just not a cog in the machine, or i could have done the job.

I havent seen anything yet that makes me think ETH will be the man that takes this team to the next lvl.
Why would anybody just asume he will transfer this kind of chaos fotball, to anything that will make us compete at the highest lvl. I mean, its there to see every week?
No progress, just random stuff happening, and bad fotball for the most part.

And i do feel the manager will have the last word in most transfer situations, wich again shapes the squad and our expectations of it.
I feel ETH have made a continious series of transfers that has really just made it even more difficult going forward. If this is the result of him alone or a team around him im not sure, but i do know it will stop our progress the next couple years dead in the tracks.
And that wasnt what we needed or asked for when we appointed ETH.

Feel free to disagree.
I get what you're saying, but the next level for me is to put any manager (Not just ETH) into a system where someone like Dan Ashworth and a network of scouts / football officers identify a play style that works for this league, hire the manager who can play that style (or go with the existing manager if they can play that style), identify the positions that we need to strengthen, put forward 4 or 5 well researched candidates for each position that the manager is happy with (X player name doesn't matter, he just needs to have the attributes that complement the team), and go out and negotiate for those players without breaking the bank. I believe before we look at new managers, we should look at setting up the environment where managers can succeed at United.

ETH came to this team that finished 8th in the PL and had to reset the culture at this club in a number of ways, in addition to taking responsibility in bringing players in - The fact that he came into this shower of shite and got us a very respectable 3rd by playing a bit more controlled style of football than Ole is enough to see his merits. He's struggled a lot this season, and will continue to for the rest of it, but I would like to see what he's capable of in a more supportive/stable environment - If he's not good enough in that sort of environment, then by all means we should go out and get someone else, without sacrificing the style of play/philosophy/players we've been building under the previous manager.

The criticism on his transfers is fair, I think Mount will have a part to play in this team (He's a ball carrying midfielder who would suit a progressive team), but I'm not a fan of Antony, and I'm not a fan of Case (I like the player but don't think he suits how we should play) - I don't think those signings are purely down to ETH, in fact what it shows is that the club only started working on transfers when he came to the club, which is honestly insanity. Contrast that with Mourinho when he came to Chelsea - They had already greenlit Robben and Cech before he came in as coach. Let's just give the guy some time for now imo, assess where we are at the end of the season, and in the meantime get our football structure / transfer team sorted out - sort out our roots before we get to the branches so to speak.
 

Borys

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Casemiro doesn't feel like a true Ten Hag signing.

We were chasing De Jong (would have been a true Ten Hag signing) the whole summer, the competition already started, the fans were getting frustrated by the back-to-back losses in the PL and the lack of new midfielders. The board probably informed Ten Hag that acquiring de Jong now would be very difficult, but Casemiro at least was available. Ten Hag caved in because he was already under pressure after losing the first two games and the summer transfer window would close after a week.
Well I feel that is true, and to be honest I feel he got quite lucky last year because of how good Casemiro was for us, but on the other hand you can't expect to get "a De Jong" for every position. We spent too much time waiting for fdj anyway, this isn't how you build a team.

I want to have a manager who can make it work with what we have (as a squad) and has a vision for the future. I don't see this in Ten Hag. To be honest, he definitely has a vision, just not a very good one imo.
 

RyRy11

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I get what you're saying, but the next level for me is to put any manager (Not just ETH) into a system where someone like Dan Ashworth and a network of scouts / football officers identify a play style that works for this league, hire the manager who can play that style (or go with the existing manager if they can play that style), identify the positions that we need to strengthen, put forward 4 or 5 well researched candidates for each position that the manager is happy with (X player name doesn't matter, he just needs to have the attributes that complement the team), and go out and negotiate for those players without breaking the bank. I believe before we look at new managers, we should look at setting up the environment where managers can succeed at United.

ETH came to this team that finished 8th in the PL and had to reset the culture at this club in a number of ways, in addition to taking responsibility in bringing players in - The fact that he came into this shower of shite and got us a very respectable 3rd by playing a bit more controlled style of football than Ole is enough to see his merits. He's struggled a lot this season, and will continue to for the rest of it, but I would like to see what he's capable of in a more supportive/stable environment - If he's not good enough in that sort of environment, then by all means we should go out and get someone else, without sacrificing the style of play/philosophy/players we've been building under the previous manager.

The criticism on his transfers is fair, I think Mount will have a part to play in this team (He's a ball carrying midfielder who would suit a progressive team), but I'm not a fan of Antony, and I'm not a fan of Case (I like the player but don't think he suits how we should play) - I don't think those signings are purely down to ETH, in fact what it shows is that the club only started working on transfers when he came to the club, which is honestly insanity. Contrast that with Mourinho when he came to Chelsea - They had already greenlit Robben and Cech before he came in as coach. Let's just give the guy some time for now imo, assess where we are at the end of the season, and in the meantime get our football structure / transfer team sorted out - sort out our roots before we get to the branches so to speak.
Great post. I know we are moving away from the injury conversation but fans need to avoid looking at this as a binary "should ETH stay or go?" The importance of a manager grows when the structure above them is so poor, now that we are seemingly hiring intelligent football people in those positions, our squad should be run to the point were any high end manager will get us challenging for titles. I hate to put emphasis on City but they have been the benchmark for 10 years. They have challenged and won titles under Manchini, Pellegrini and Pep, of course Pep has put them on a new stratosphere but we wouldn't be falling over ourselves to hire the other two to replace ETH. The Idea is that whether or not ETH is good enough isn't really relevant anymore. If he's not we find the person who is.
 

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@Valencia Shin Crosses read this please.



If City (regrettably) are the standard you can see how every player they have helps their style with excellent individual quality suited to the teams needs.

If we want to play modern football we need a squad full of certain profiles. Now when City, Arsenal or Liverpool get injuries they’ve had the structure in place to have the right kind of profiles in the squad to play to a similar standard and manner. Of course some injuries would be more impactful than others see Liverpool losing Van Dijk or City losing Rodri.

Do we have that squad? And if not is that Ten Hags fault or a wider cultural issue?

Then we could argue well Ten Hag has to develop that style of play but how do you do that without the right personnel?

We could then argue well is Ten Hag the right manager for this current squad? But then if he’s not who is capable of getting them to play modern football without them being the archetypal modern player?
I personally have no interest in seeing us replicate Cheaty‘s playstyle, since it is frankly boring, ineffective against sides that sit deep and it would take years to build a squad capable of it.

The tactics we are seeing are geared towards solving our inability the create chances from positions where the opponent has closed all the spaces and plays compact. Even Cheaty struggles to do this.

The players we are targeting certainly have the right profile for what Ten Hag is trying to do: comfortable on the ball and with strong character. To make it work the players need to be decisive and skillful.

Without Martinez and Shaw, we really did fall off a cliff playing out the back, no doubt about it. We will secure a world class cb in summer.

We are making moves also to improve the structures around the team. The problems we have will impact any manager or playstyle.

I think Ten Hag has shown last season he can set up the team tactically to win big games, but the base level to fall back on when things are hard is very low. We fall apart.

The injuries have prevented us from working on consistency and raising this base level.
 

Chumpsbechumps

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Great post. I know we are moving away from the injury conversation but fans need to avoid looking at this as a binary "should ETH stay or go?" The importance of a manager grows when the structure above them is so poor, now that we are seemingly hiring intelligent football people in those positions, our squad should be run to the point were any high end manager will get us challenging for titles. I hate to put emphasis on City but they have been the benchmark for 10 years. They have challenged and won titles under Manchini, Pellegrini and Pep, of course Pep has put them on a new stratosphere but we wouldn't be falling over ourselves to hire the other two to replace ETH. The Idea is that whether or not ETH is good enough isn't really relevant anymore. If he's not we find the person who is.
Exactly, been saying this for years.

Its ironic that some people think there is some cult of manager about keeping ETH, they really dont get it. I want every United manager (regardless of quality) to have the best chance of success. That doesnt mean "400 million spent", it means that there is an actual cohesive plan at the club with the best in class in all departments working together to meet the targets.
 

NLunited

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@Laurencio
I said I’d come back to this and I will. You’re fast becoming one of my favourite new (I think you’re new) posters. I think this is just a brilliant post so I’m not going to try and poke holes here.

My follow up to this would be do you think our squad is as well constructed as Arsenal, City and Liverpool to deal with those injuries.

So let’s say we only really lost:
Mount
Mainoo
Shaw
Martinez
Casemiro

What does that take out of our squad do you feel that can/cant be replaced?
I‘ll answer that: without Mainoo, Shaw, Martinez and Casemiro we are completely fecked at this point.
 

Borys

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I personally have no interest in seeing us replicate Cheaty‘s playstyle, since it is frankly boring, ineffective against sides that sit deep and it would take years to build a squad capable of it.

The tactics we are seeing are geared towards solving our inability the create chances from positions where the opponent has closed all the spaces and plays compact. Even Cheaty struggles to do this.
City style is ineffective against sides that sit deep - compared to what style? I don't think City fans complain about this, and just quickly looking at the result their style seems quite effective against those smaller teams that sit back.

I am interested in the bolded part as well, how do you see our style working exactly? I'd describe our style against those teams sitting deep as "push bodies forward". Sometimes work, sometimes it doesn't.

I think Ten Hag has shown last season he can set up the team tactically to win big games, but the base level to fall back on when things are hard is very low. We fall apart.
Ole has shown that as well and if I recall correctly, he had a good record against the big teams - and in those games we played very similar to Ten Hag style tbh, so there's a valid comparison. OGS didn't have the injuries as an excuse.
To be honest I think ETH got an "out of jail card" with the injuries and he seems to escape a lot of criticism because he has a "good coach" reputation which is based on Ajax doing well.
Like I said before, we do suffer from injuries but just as much as from poor coaching and poor recruitment.
 

NLunited

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City style is ineffective against sides that sit deep - compared to what style? I don't think City fans complain about this, and just quickly looking at the result their style seems quite effective against those smaller teams that sit back.

I am interested in the bolded part as well, how do you see our style working exactly? I'd describe our style against those teams sitting deep as "push bodies forward". Sometimes work, sometimes it doesn't.


Ole has shown that as well and if I recall correctly, he had a good record against the big teams - and in those games we played very similar to Ten Hag style tbh, so there's a valid comparison. OGS didn't have the injuries as an excuse.
To be honest I think ETH got an "out of jail card" with the injuries and he seems to escape a lot of criticism because he has a "good coach" reputation which is based on Ajax doing well.
Like I said before, we do suffer from injuries but just as much as from poor coaching and poor recruitment.
Watch City‘s game against Everton. Two shots on goal, two goals. They looked stale all game and can imagine the moaning if we played like that (2015/16 start of the season: we were winning but the fans were not happy).

Our style: if all works reasonably well, we play through the opponent and create chances from skillful movement and decision making of our wingers, fb and midfielders. If the attack stalls, recycle and go again. If we lose the ball, gegenpress. If that fails, rest defence.

I agree about Ole‘s good period: he made good use of the players available. The difference with Ten Hag is the build up from the back.

Out of jail card for Ten Hag: nah, he is facing a lot of pressure and so far is dealing with it. The pressure is on, there is no out of jail card.
 

BenitoSTARR

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What? I never said this, I am arguing that we have Evans because there was no money left in the bank. We did have a money for 3x overpaid right winger and 3rd #10 in the club though. So I feel this "it's not ETH squad" is an excuse, just very weak.

I don't mind Evans as 5th choice CB, but you have to consider he's 4th Centre Back that prevents ETH from implementing his "style" (added to Varane, Maguire, and Lindelof). If you can't play football without elite on the ball centreback and left back, maybe you prioritise them as signing instead of going for another #10 (especially since apparently Mainoo was key element in ETH plan this season, as this thread also suggests). This is all consequence of other choices.

Right Winger was not a priority signing, we already had Sancho, Pellistri, even Bruno, maybe Garnacho + Amad close. It was managers decision to go big for RW, and it was definitely ETH decision to go for Antony. Again, it has serious consequences, and it makes this "he wasn't backed in the transfer window" excuse weak as well.
But you’re arguing he’s a Ten Hag signing or player as if he’s a top choice.

It’s no more Ten Hags squad than it is Ole’s at this point. What it should be is United’s and we build towards a philosophy of playing.

The injuries we’ve had have prevented the few players capable of playing the more progressive style we want from being available.

Im not saying he hasn’t been backed Im saying key parts of his plan that he did sign aren’t available so the changes he wants to make with personnel are going to be slower.
Great post. I know we are moving away from the injury conversation but fans need to avoid looking at this as a binary "should ETH stay or go?" The importance of a manager grows when the structure above them is so poor, now that we are seemingly hiring intelligent football people in those positions, our squad should be run to the point were any high end manager will get us challenging for titles. I hate to put emphasis on City but they have been the benchmark for 10 years. They have challenged and won titles under Manchini, Pellegrini and Pep, of course Pep has put them on a new stratosphere but we wouldn't be falling over ourselves to hire the other two to replace ETH. The Idea is that whether or not ETH is good enough isn't really relevant anymore. If he's not we find the person who is.
Impossible job is now being made possible.
 

Borys

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Watch City‘s game against Everton. Two shots on goal, two goals. They looked stale all game and can imagine the moaning if we played like that (2015/16 start of the season: we were winning but the fans were not happy).

Our style: if all works reasonably well, we play through the opponent and create chances from skillful movement and decision making of our wingers, fb and midfielders. If the attack stalls, recycle and go again. If we lose the ball, gegenpress. If that fails, rest defence.

I agree about Ole‘s good period: he made good use of the players available. The difference with Ten Hag is the build up from the back.

Out of jail card for Ten Hag: nah, he is facing a lot of pressure and so far is dealing with it. The pressure is on, there is no out of jail card.
To be precise, they had 3 shots on goal out of 19 total. They have also limited Everton to basically no threat. Anyway, it has proven to be an effective style over years so I am not going to invest too much time into that discussion. If you don't like their style, that's fine, but it is bloody effective.

I don't understand how this description of "our style" differs from any other team that is aspiring for the top. We do press high, but we are also not effective in this pressing, so hard to praise this approach (it's like praising a player for taking a lot of shots from any random position - something will go in just because of the volume, but usually you just lose the ball). We don't really play out from the back any better compared to Ole days, apart from when Martinez plays, but that seems to be the ONLY difference (we used to rely on Shaw a lot to bring the ball out of defense to midifeld).
 

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It’s no more Ten Hags squad than it is Ole’s at this point. What it should be is United’s and we build towards a philosophy of playing.
That's the key thing to me.

One could argue that the OP isn't showing the full picture, because Ten Hag didn't always pick players even if they were available, and it's a squad game, and similar points. That's all true, but then leads to the point that United's squad is still horribly imbalanced from about a decade of frequent stylistic change (from one coach to another) and scattershot transfer policy.

True, Ten Hag's period did not improve that as much as it could have (whether or not Ten Hag is solely to blame for that), but either way, the fact remains that United's squad makes little sense, as the backups are often nothing like the starting XI players that they're supposed to be able to fill in for. In that context, I would agree that finally installing properly capable people in the football structure should be United's priority, ideally before anything else happens in terms of the coach or even player transfers.

I'll add that I agree that, despite these issues, Ten Hag should probably still have instilled a more coherent style on the team (that then just wouldn't always work out as well, depending on the players available), but that's a topic for a different thread. This one is about first XI availability, and by extension about squad strength - and I think the OP and subsequent discussion make clear what a mess United have been in, in that regard.
 

Leftback99

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Interesting article. Opta gives us a 6% chance of 4th and a 19% chance of 5th. Sounds about right.
 

Leftback99

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I would have us much higher for 5th.
I think Villa losing two more games than us (and us winning at the same time) sounds more likely than it is.

We aren't playing well.
 

Sarni

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I think Villa losing two more games than us (and us winning at the same time) sounds more likely than it is.

We aren't playing well.
I expect Villa to struggle a lot the upcoming few months. Their defense is decimated, Kamara is out, they will lose their edge there.
 

Sunny Jim

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Based on a discussion in the Erik Ten Hag thread I present in my view the biggest reason we've failed to perform consistently at a high level whilst other teams haven't suffered as much in the top 6.

Each side in the Top 6 (Liverpool, City, Arsenal, Spurs, Villa and United) have been broken down player by player into their % mins in the PL also with their (in my opinion) best XI and a brief comment as to how this looks in terms of key player losses and who has played in their stead. It also take a small look into the future in some cases with current injuries.

75% or above
50% to 74%
0% to 49%
* = GK or additional circumstance (e.g. Loan)


Liverpool
Alisson 88%
Trent 75% Van Dijk 89%
Konate 53% Robertson 40%
Mac Allister 68%
Jones 43% Szobozslai 77%
Salah 81%
____________ Díaz 69%
Núñez 66%

The only position up for debate here is Jones but as you can see Liverpool's overall availability taking into account rotations is healthy. The best players, Salah, Van Dijk, Alisson, Szobozslai and Trent all have played at least 3/4 of the PL season minutes to date with Robertson and Thiago arguably the only significant players absent through injury for a longer period. The rest of the squad has been used more in rotation as and when. Joe Gomez is the player who I wouldn't consider in the strongest XI but has played more minutes than Robertson. Injury wise Matip is ACL so out for the season, Szobozsali has a hamstring issue but could be back next week and Thiago is unlikely to return anytime soon but its not a 'big big injury', Trent has a knee issue unsure if he will or won't play on it and Salah has a thigh injury but could return this week.

Alisson 88%
Kelleher 13%*
Adrian 0%*


TAA 75%
Bradley 7%

Van Dijk 89%
Konate 53%
Joe Gomez 54%

Matip 36%
Quansah 16%

Robertson 40%
Tsimikas 31%


Mac Allister 68%
Endo 38%
Bajcetic 0%



Szoboszlai 77%
Jones 43%
Thiago 0%
Gravenberch 38%


Salah 81%
Diaz 69%
Jota 47%
Gakpo 43%
Elliot 26%

Doak 1%


Núñez 66%

Manchester City
Ederson 92%
Walker 92% Dias 76%
Ake 66% Gvardiol 71%
Rodri 83%
De Brunye 11% Bernardo 73%
Foden 90% Haaland 72% Doku 52%

Now there could be arguments made for the inclusion of several players here such is the strength in depth of the Man City squad but even allowing for any change you'd choose to make the only long term injuries have been De Brunye (massive of course) and Stones. The rest have been used in rotation as you would expect with a squad as strong as City's. I'd say they are the 2nd least affected side by injuries in the top 6. The only positions I consider up for debate in this starting XI are Doku and Ake. Álvarez is actually the most played outfield player with 94% mins played and would be the one to replace De Brunye in the most played XI. Currently no players are significantly injured Kovacic has a knock, Gvardiol being assessed and Grealish a hip issue being assessed.

Ederson 92%
Ortega 8%*
Carson 0%*


Walker 92%
Lewis 22%

Dias 76%
Aké 66%
Stones 29%
Akanji 64%

Gvardiol 71%

Gomez 1%

Rodri 83%
Kovacic 42%
Nunes 30%


De Brunye 11%

Bernardo Silva 73%

Foden 90%
Doku 52%
Grealish 34%
Bobb 6%


Haaland 72%
Álvarez 94%

Arsenal
Raya 83%
White 84% Saliba 100% Gabriel 84%
Zinchenko 66%
Rice 96%
Ødegaard 87%
Havertz 67%
Saka 92% Jesus 51% Martinelli 72%
Arsenal's first choice XI feels a bit more clear cut but I would accept an argument for Partey over Havertz. Regardless you can see they've had their best XI available the majority of the season the only exception being Jesus who still have over 1/2 the available minutes for Arsenal. Partey and Timber stand out as longer injuries to squad players but beyond that they've not been hit too badly. Saliba 100% is mind boggling considering his role! Timber is expected back April, Zinchenko has a calf issue but could be back this week, Partey has a hamstring issue no idea when back, Vieira is back in the next few weeks and Jesus has a knee problem but could be back within days too.

Raya 83%
Ramsdale 21%
Hein 0%*


White 84%
Tomiyasu 29%
Soares 1%


Saliba 100%
Gabriel 84%

Timber 2%
Kiwor 20%


Zinchenko 66%

Rice 96%
Partey 12%
Jorginho 23%
Elneny 1%


Ødegaard 87%
Havertz 67%
Vieira 11%
Smith Rowe 10%


Martinelli 72%
Trossard 38%

Saka 92%
Nelson 6%

Jesus 51%
Nketiah 47%

Tottenham Hotspur
Vicario 100%
Porro 96%
Romero 71% van de Ven 60% Udogie 82%
Sarr 59% Bissouma 58%
Kulusevski 86% Maddison 53% Son 80%
Richardson 59%
The Spurs midfield pairing is very much up for debate so argue amongst yourselves as to who you'd swap in but this myth of Spurs injuries have been as bad across the season just isn't statistically true. They have absolutely been impacted by losing Maddison but beyond that the loss isn't anywhere near our levels. They are I'd say the 2nd most affected by injuries out of the top 6. No major injuries to report currently but Lo Celso back this week, Solomon out for the foreseeable with knee issues and Sessegnon no idea.

Forster 0%*
Austin 0%*
Whiteman 0%*


Porro 96%
Royal 36%

Romero 71%
van de Ven 60%

Dragusin 2*
Dier* 11%


Udogie 82%
Davies 42%
Sessengnon 0%


Sarr 59%
Bissouma 58%

Bentacur 19%
Højbjerg 45%
Skipp 26%


Maddison 53%
Lo Celso 19%

Son 80%
Kulusevski 86%

Johnson 61%
Solomon 9%
Gil 9%


Richarlison 59%
Véliz 2%
Werner* 14% (approx of season)
88% (since loan)

Aston Villa
Martinez 96%
Konsa 93%
Carlos 54% Torres 70%
Cash 69%
Kamara 77% Luiz 91% Digne 71%
McGinn 95%
Diaby 68% Watkins 98%
Aston Villa are very hard to pin to a formation so I've tried my best to show what I believe is in Emery's mind the best mix of players in roughly the right places. So don't shoot me! The only notable lower % player is Carlos but with Konsa able to play RCB/CB and Cash they've rotated well. Diaby has been rotated with Bailey for their pacey outlet option so overall looking very healthy with key players like Martinez, Konsa, Luis, McGinn and Watkins all in the 90+% bracket. Mings is long term injured but not a player any Villa fan would consider in their best XI. They have more recently picked up injuries and I would expect them to struggle more now with Kamara and Cash out. Kamara is out long term knee, Buendia is in recovery (knee) our for the season likely, Mings similar, Konsa likely out for 3/4 weeks.

Martinez 96%
Olsen* 4%
Gauci* 0%


Konsa 93%
Cash 69%
Kesler Hayden 0%

Torres 70%
Carlos 54%

Mings 1%
Lenglet 32%
Chambers 0%
Hause 0%


Digne 71%
Moreno 29%

Kamara 77%
Luiz 91%
McGinn 95%

Ramsey 30%
Tielemans 34%
Iroggebunam 1%


Diaby 68%
Bailey 50%

Zainolo 26%
Buendia 0%
Rogers 5%


Watkins 98%
Durán 8%

Manchester United
Onana 100%
Dalot 89%
Varane 42% Martinez 26% Shaw 43%
Casemiro 42% Mainoo 36%

Garnacho 66% Bruno 96% Rashford 76%
Højlund 64%
Now we can debate Dalot vs AWB, I've gone Dalot because he's had the most minutes and so as not to be accused of trying to hide high % playing 'starters', and I've opted Varane over Maguire but I'd argue Varane is better and it's only a 5% difference in minutes share.

When you consider Mainoo's minutes would likely have gone to Mount while injured we've been really royally fecked over by injuries. Look at us compared to the top 6 sides.

Dealing with some level of injury is absolutely to be expected but 5 of what many would consider our best XI haven't played more than 57% of our PL matches so far this season. Our best CB has missed 3/4 of the season so far and looks to be missing even more. And we've been without our best midfield pairing for 64% of the season. Now add in Champions League, League Cup and FA cup fixtures and you can see why we might have found it difficult.

The impact injuries have had on our defence is unprecedented we have one player (Dalot) who has been able to play 50%+ of our games.

In midfield due to injuries and fitness we've had to rely on McTominay for 56% of our game time but with the squad back and fit you can see his role is reduced to clutch player (impact sub).

Our record since having most players back has been 4 wins in 4. But we have Martinez out until April earliest, Martial out till April, Malacia expected back end of Feb/Early march, Shaw hopefully back this weekend. Mount also back hopefully next week. Wan Bissaka out for the foreseeable.

Onana 100%
Bayindir 0%*
Heaton 0%*

AWB 41%

Dalot 89%

Martinez 26%
Maguire 47%
Varane 42%
Lindelof 44%
Evans 41%
Kambwala 12%

Shaw 43%
Malacia 0%

Casemiro 42%
Amrabat 32%

Mainoo 36%

McTominay 56%
Eriksen 39%

Fernandes 96%
Mount 19%

Rashford 76%
Garnacho 66%
Antony 43%
Diallo 2%


Højlund 64%
Martial 21%

Thoughts?
good post. What you’re not showing is the overlap -%. United have had multiple injuries to key players at the same time.
 

RedRocket08

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Interesting article. Opta gives us a 6% chance of 4th and a 19% chance of 5th. Sounds about right.
Spurs did their part today :lol: Fulham gave Villa (who are going through a bit of an injury run of their own) a good game as well. I think top 4 is still open to us if we want it and play for it - Just 6 points between us and spurs now with a game in hand.
 

BenitoSTARR

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Spurs did their part today :lol: Fulham gave Villa (who are going through a bit of an injury run of their own) a good game as well. I think top 4 is still open to us if we want it and play for it - Just 6 points between us and spurs now with a game in hand.
A near full strength Spurs lose? No it’s not possible.
 

Leftback99

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Spurs did their part today :lol: Fulham gave Villa (who are going through a bit of an injury run of their own) a good game as well. I think top 4 is still open to us if we want it and play for it - Just 6 points between us and spurs now with a game in hand.
The issue isn't them but whether we're good enough to take advantage. Villa knock off another game keeping the advantage at least the same.
 

RedRocket08

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The issue isn't them but whether we're good enough to take advantage.
I fully agree, it's ours to lose rather than theirs to gain. If we go on and lose tomorrow, we're back to square one. But we've got a realistic shot at top 4 if we play properly.
 

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We are going to use this excuse again today, aren't we? Luton aggregated xG 1,13 in 45 mins against Luton, we had 41% possession - with only Martinez missing.

Maybe if your game plan relies on elite on the ball players and otherwise your team can't play football, then it isn't a very good plan.
 

BenitoSTARR

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Imagine being a United fan and your first thought after a really tough away win is to post the above.
 

RedRocket08

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We are going to use this excuse again today, aren't we? Luton aggregated xG 1,13 in 45 mins against Luton, we had 41% possession - with only Martinez missing.

Maybe if your game plan relies on elite on the ball players and otherwise your team can't play football, then it isn't a very good plan.
Oh come on we had a good game, finishing let us down massively today as well with 5-6 clear cut chances wasted on top of the 2 goals - This against a team who have won with 1 goal margins at Kenilworth Road against Spurs, Chelski, City and Arsenal on top of drawing against Liverpool and beating Newcastle. Not a perfect game by any means, but enough to enjoy the win for me.
 

bosnian_red

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Imagine being a United fan and your first thought after a really tough away win is to post the above.
It was only a tough away win because we are pretty horribly coached. We had a 2 goal lead gifted after 7 minutes. A well coached team controls that game, keeps the ball, limits them to below 10 shots, and just dominates the game like Liverpool, Arsenal and city did. Ten Hags garbage system leads to a basketball game even against lower league opposition. It's pathetic. I don't care about league position this year. I want to see quality coaching, reasons for us to be optimistic that we can play a dominant style of play and actually become a top team. As it is, it's just end to end against whoever and hope our players get the job done. It's the reason why we're horrible against big teams, it's the reason why our form plummeted with injuries more than other teams.

The moaning will stop once our performances aren't shit. It is really quite simple.
 

VP89

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We are going to use this excuse again today, aren't we? Luton aggregated xG 1,13 in 45 mins against Luton, we had 41% possession - with only Martinez missing.

Maybe if your game plan relies on elite on the ball players and otherwise your team can't play football, then it isn't a very good plan.
We didn't want to blow them away with possession because they are very dangerous on the counter. It was a fine plan, with 2.81xg for us and 1. 76xg against.

You're now just crying for the sake of it, it's pretty sad.
 

VP89

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It was only a tough away win because we are pretty horribly coached. We had a 2 goal lead gifted after 7 minutes. A well coached team controls that game, keeps the ball, limits them to below 10 shots, and just dominates the game like Liverpool, Arsenal and city did. Ten Hags garbage system leads to a basketball game even against lower league opposition. It's pathetic. I don't care about league position this year. I want to see quality coaching, reasons for us to be optimistic that we can play a dominant style of play and actually become a top team. As it is, it's just end to end against whoever and hope our players get the job done. It's the reason why we're horrible against big teams, it's the reason why our form plummeted with injuries more than other teams.

The moaning will stop once our performances aren't shit. It is really quite simple.
Facking hell imagine winning a game away, again, and hearing the same shite about circumstantial things favouring the team and no credit being given to the manager.

I've seen shit house posts like these after Wolves away, West Ham, Luton, even Villa on the last game.

The blue balls is real with some fans. I'm sure you're waiting to burst the second we drop points again but just try holding on a bit longer.
 

Berbasbullet

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We are going to use this excuse again today, aren't we? Luton aggregated xG 1,13 in 45 mins against Luton, we had 41% possession - with only Martinez missing.

Maybe if your game plan relies on elite on the ball players and otherwise your team can't play football, then it isn't a very good plan.
Agreed can’t believe we lost. :(
 

didz

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Imagine being a United fan and your first thought after a really tough away win is to post the above.
I don't believe such people exist. Nevermind the fact that we need no excuses having won the match, created significantly more than the opposition, and gained ground on the teams around us.

I also wonder if people actually know what possession is. The fact that Luton played more passes than us means nothing when it gets them one big chance versus our four.
 

Borys

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We didn't want to blow them away with possession because they are very dangerous on the counter. It was a fine plan, with 2.81xg for us and 1. 76xg against.

You're now just crying for the sake of it, it's pretty sad.
Doesn't look like we were effective at preventing Luton to create chances.

We deserved to win, but it was another horrible performance with almost full squad available.
It's not injuries that prevent us from playing good football at the moment.
 

bosnian_red

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Facking hell imagine winning a game away, again, and hearing the same shite about circumstantial things favouring the team and no credit being given to the manager.

I've seen shit house posts like these after Wolves away, West Ham, Luton, even Villa on the last game.

The blue balls is real with some fans. I'm sure you're waiting to burst the second we drop points again but just try holding on a bit longer.
I'm glad we won. I want to see competent performances against teams like luton. It's not a lot to ask for.
 

RedRocket08

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Facking hell imagine winning a game away, again, and hearing the same shite about circumstantial things favouring the team and no credit being given to the manager.

I've seen shit house posts like these after Wolves away, West Ham, Luton, even Villa on the last game.

The blue balls is real with some fans. I'm sure you're waiting to burst the second we drop points again but just try holding on a bit longer.
It's almost like after 10 years of moaning, some of us are so scarred we can't separate being a United fan and moaning :lol:
 

Berbasbullet

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I'm glad we won. I want to see competent performances against teams like luton. It's not a lot to ask for.
It was competent! We should have won by more, we just don’t play the type of football you seem to want.
 

VP89

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Doesn't look like we were effective at preventing Luton to create chances.

We deserved to win, but it was another horrible performance with almost full squad available.
It's not injuries that prevent us from playing good football at the moment.
Shaw wasn't fully fit enough as shown by the sub before HT. Licha is out too, but yeah there were elements that we certainly could have controlled better.

That being said I think our game plan was to soak and hit rather than try and blow them away. Liverpool and Arsenal tried and failed with what appeared an obvious approach.

We weren't superb today, there was a 30 min spell where we were poor. But the entire performance certainly wasn't horrible. That's just overkill.