US Presidential Election: Tuesday November 6th, 2012

[mjs020294]

You're right!

Okay, forget all that ignore individual polls shit. Cocks out.

Its too close to call now. Romney has more momentum over the last month and more enthusiasm amongst his base. No one thought he had a cat in hells chance just over a month ago, not even his backers.

Who knows what will happen in the final week, and how enthusiasm and the economy will impact voters.

 

[Plechazunga]

Its too close to call now. Romney has more momentum over the last month and more enthusiasm amongst his base. No one thought he had a cat in hells chance just over a month ago, not even his backers.

I did, and so did you, apart from on the Republican forums.

 

[Grinner]

You predicted that Obama would have a shit first debate and blow the race open?

Uncanny.

 

[Plechazunga]

You predicted that Obama would have a shit first debate and blow the race open?

Uncanny.

No, I was just generally pessimistic throughout.

I believed the social scientists that debates tend not to have much effect. i still don't understand how that first debate was responsible for a 6-point shift. I mean, Romney just predictably pitched to the centre and Obama frowned a bit... it's not like he had a bout of Prestidigwick's Congena.

 

[Grinner]

Personally I thought the debate thing was massively overstated. IMO it was the first time we saw the two of them together on national TV in primetime. Romney came over as an ordinary bloke whilst Obama looked muddled. I'm not surprised the polls tightened afterwards, but whether this translates to actual votes being cast is another matter.

I'm still confident that the right result will occur.

 

[Nick 0208 Ldn]

So is Virginia a lost cause for Obama? Romney's momentum there doesn't seem to be abating much.

 

[Plechazunga]

Far from a lost cause. 538 has it leaning very slightly Obama.

 

[pillory]

Didn't Nate Silver write something today about momentum being bollocks?

 

[sglowrider]

Post-ABC tracking poll: Romney 50 percent, Obama 47:

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs...king-poll-romney-50-percent-obama-47/?hpid=z1

 

[mjs020294]

Post-ABC tracking poll: Romney 50 percent, Obama 47:

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs...king-poll-romney-50-percent-obama-47/?hpid=z1

its on RCP.

 

[Red Dreams]

You have a specific combination of states you're expecting, or is the number an approximation?

all the states Obama won except NC and IN.

But I just saw NC has moved to the Toss Up column according to RCP.

Don't be surprised Obama wins NC too.

My prediction is based on Obama getting back the momentum and more importantly his ground game. In NC you can register and vote same day and the Obama people have been turning out a fantastic effort.

 

[sglowrider]

http://www.colbertnation.com/the-co...onald-trump-s-october-surprise?xrs=share_copy

 

[Excal]

all the states Obama won except NC and IN.

That'd actually be 333 for Obama, though I'm guessing you're also moving the NE 2nd back into the GOP's camp as well.

 

[Saliph]

I was worried for a while, but now I think it's in the bag. Obama will win Wisconsin, Iowa, Nevada, New Hampshire, Colorado, Virginia and Ohio.

I'll bet anyone.

 

[Ubik]

So is Virginia a lost cause for Obama? Romney's momentum there doesn't seem to be abating much.

There is no momentum. He reduced the gap, it's been static for more than a week. See:

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/

http://votamatic.org/

http://election.princeton.edu/

Virginia's a toss-up with demographics which could potentially play well for Obama come election day, ditto with Colorado. Even Florida isn't a lost cause, it's just less likely. North Carolina is less likely still, but the demographics once again present a narrow path to victory for Obama.

 

[Red Dreams]

http://www.colbertnation.com/the-co...onald-trump-s-october-surprise?xrs=share_copy

Colbert is superb.

 

[Drainy]

it's not like he had a bout of Prestidigwick's Congena.

Although Romney certainly did spew some jizm

 

[Red Dreams]

That'd actually be 333 for Obama, though I'm guessing you're also moving the NE 2nd back into the GOP's camp as well.

yup. I was clicking on the RCP states to come up with that number.

 

[Red Dreams]

i was worried for a while, but now i think it's in the bag. Obama will win wisconsin, iowa, nevada, new hampshire, colorado, virginia and ohio.

I'll bet anyone.

$10,000?

 

[Ubik]

RCP's also pretty worthless at the moment, what's the point of a poll aggregator when they don't put all the polls up?

 

[Red Dreams]

RCP's also pretty worthless at the moment, what's the point of a poll aggregator when they don't put all the polls up?

538 is your best bet.

He has Obama at 291.

 

[Ubik]

Yeah I don't go there for an accurate reading of the race, but they often get cited so I thought I'd put it out there.

Also, those two other sites I linked to earlier think Silver's being too conservative of Obama's chances, for whatever it's worth.

 

[Nick 0208 Ldn]

There is no momentum. He reduced the gap, it's been static for more than a week. See:

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/

http://votamatic.org/

http://election.princeton.edu/

Virginia's a toss-up with demographics which could potentially play well for Obama come election day, ditto with Colorado. Even Florida isn't a lost cause, it's just less likely. North Carolina is less likely still, but the demographics once again present a narrow path to victory for Obama.

I was flicking through the various news channels, listening not watching unfortunately, and one of them was talking about a poll in Virginia which had Romney with a 2 point lead.

I was suggesting that Romney had the momentum in that one state, not across the board btw.

 

[Red Dreams]

Yeah I don't go there for an accurate reading of the race, but they often get cited so I thought I'd put it out there.

Also, those two other sites I linked to earlier think Silver's being too conservative of Obama's chances, for whatever it's worth.

Nate is always pragmatic.

last weekend we got Obama team people at our door. Not just asking we vote for the President but asking we vote for several democratic candidates.

I donated last night for both the Obama and DCCC, the committee that helps congressional democratic races.

We don't have early voting here. So it will be Nov. 6. But in addition to Democratic races, I have been reminding family and friends to vote No on the Voter ID and Marriage amendments.

 

[Red Dreams]

I was flicking through the various news channels, listening not watching unfortunately, and one of them was talking about a poll in Virginia which had Romney with a 2 point lead.

I was suggesting that Romney had the momentum in that one state, not across the board btw.

Rasmussen poll.

 

[Red Dreams]

There is no momentum. He reduced the gap, it's been static for more than a week. See:

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/

http://votamatic.org/

http://election.princeton.edu/

Virginia's a toss-up with demographics which could potentially play well for Obama come election day, ditto with Colorado. Even Florida isn't a lost cause, it's just less likely. North Carolina is less likely still, but the demographics once again present a narrow path to victory for Obama.

Nate just included the PPP Poll for CO and says Obama will get 293 EV.

 

[Ubik]

Mittmentum! I suppose you can still have momentum whilst going backwards, though.

Since house effects were being mentioned earlier, I've also just spend ages looking for this (remind me to just search with the address bar next time, took 5 seconds):

Spoiler

Nick - Virginia's probably Romney's best bet in swing states outside of Florida and North Carolina, but it's still basically a toss up. If it's still polling a tie on election day and if Obama's ground operation is anything like it's cracked up to be, Obama could well have the edge there.

 

[Red Dreams]

Obama and Clinton are campaigning together Monday onwards.

 

[Nick 0208 Ldn]

Have any of you already voted out of interest?

Actually attending a polling station on election day is sort of part of the experience, must be an odd [maybe just different] atmosphere when doing so weeks away.

 

[Raoul]

No, I was just generally pessimistic throughout.

I believed the social scientists that debates tend not to have much effect. i still don't understand how that first debate was responsible for a 6-point shift. I mean, Romney just predictably pitched to the centre and Obama frowned a bit... it's not like he had a bout of Prestidigwick's Congena.

Just weeks after we discussed this, Romney managed to use a debate to turn the race on its head. Obama then used the ensuing two debates to restablize his polling numbers.

 

[Ubik]

I think you can include good ol' Joe in that too, he clearly bested Ryan and got the Dems fired up again after the suckerpunch in Denver.

 

[Raoul]

I think Obama is getting an aggregate bump from debates 2 and 3 right about now. What is encouraging for him is that if, as expected, he wins Ohio, Wisconsin, and Iowa - what happens in Colorado, Virginia, and New Hampshire will be moot.

Spoiler

 

[brad-dyrak]

Have any of you already voted out of interest?

Actually attending a polling station on election day is sort of part of the experience, must be an odd [maybe just different] atmosphere when doing so weeks away.

Yup, a few days ago. Here in Oregon though we get to mail ours in.

*** for Obama. 4 more years of that good stuff.

 

[Sir Matt]

I think Obama is getting an aggregate bump from debates 2 and 3 right about now. What is encouraging for him is that if, as expected, he wins Ohio, Wisconsin, and Iowa - what happens in Colorado, Virginia, and New Hampshire will be moot.

Spoiler

But, but momentum! Romney has momentum!

We've heard that non-stop since the first debate despite the fact that poll numbers show otherwise--at least where it matters: swing states. His national numbers have improved, but he's not winning key states at the moment. It's irritating as hell to have to see/hear that Romney's closing with the momentum despite the fact that his "momentum" has dissipated.

It's all about the story...

 

[Ubik]

Here's a good visual representation of state trends - http://votamatic.org/state-trend-detail-d-tier/

All say more or less the same thing. That said it's still a fragile lead and squeaky bum time is most certainly upon us.

 

[Neutral]

Have any of you already voted out of interest?

Actually attending a polling station on election day is sort of part of the experience, must be an odd [maybe just different] atmosphere when doing so weeks away.

Oui! Obama/Biden...all the way from Dhaka, Bangladesh - Virginia. Experienced no polling station atmosphere - absentee voting Doing my bit to ensure Obama keeps hold of Virginia, but not too confident(despite what the polls say).

 

[sglowrider]

Sununu: Applauds Powell for endorsing Obama.. based on race


Based on this logic, can I assume that the GH Bush endorsement of Romney is also based on race. Would that not make Bush a racist too?

 

[Nick 0208 Ldn]

First he says that with a straight face and then had the audacity to dress it up as a compliment.

One of those instances where the person Piers Morgan is interviewing is even more of a tosser than he is.

You know, for a country with such an obsessive media culture it is amazing how these campaigns allow and even encourage their links with such controversy magnets. It would be like Jon Gaunt having official ties to Cameron's election team in 2015.

 

[Neutral]

This is why I laugh at those who say 'they're as bad as each other'

Not even close...the republican party, their supporters and apologists are ALL cnuts.

 

[Nick 0208 Ldn]

This is why I laugh at those who say 'they're as bad as each other'

Not even close...the republican party, their supporters and apologists are ALL cnuts.

Bear in mind that Powell probably still considers himself a Republican of sorts. Also that John Huntsman was served as US Ambassador to China during Obama's first term in office.

I wouldn't pretend to have knowledge of the of the US political landscape that some on here do, however it seems to me that a third centrist party would be more representative of wider opinion. For arguments sake call it 3/5 of the present Democratic Party and a fifth to one quarter of the GOP.

The Greens and the remainder of the Democrats would likely make good bedfellows.