Neutral
BTV
People like Powell are derided as Republican In Name Only - by people in their own party.
NH always threatens to go Red but it usually stays Blue doesnt it?I think Obama is getting an aggregate bump from debates 2 and 3 right about now. What is encouraging for him is that if, as expected, he wins Ohio, Wisconsin, and Iowa - what happens in Colorado, Virginia, and New Hampshire will be moot.
Bush won it in 2000 - if it had stayed Blue, Gore would have won the Electoral College, and the world would be quite different today...NH always threatens to go Red but it usually stays Blue doesnt it?
Its a traditionally conservative state, but then again a conservative state in the northeast is probably more liberal than a blue dog democrat state like West Virginia. I don't think NH will much of a factor this time because of its low number of electoral votes. At this point, if Obama can hold on to Ohio, he will probably win the election. If he holds on to Ohio and nicks one of Virginia or Colorado, then he will definitely win it, as Romney's path to 270 will be completely cut off.NH always threatens to go Red but it usually stays Blue doesnt it?
Well I know, that was the point of my post.Just weeks after we discussed this, Romney managed to use a debate to turn the race on its head. Obama then used the ensuing two debates to restablize his polling numbers.
The Democratic Party is representative of centrist opinion. It has essentially no left-wing positions. Yes it favours very mild redistribution, but that only seems left-wing in the light of the GOP's bizarre anti-all-taxes-ever primitivism.I wouldn't pretend to have knowledge of the of the US political landscape that some on here do, however it seems to me that a third centrist party would be more representative of wider opinion. For arguments sake call it 3/5 of the present Democratic Party and a fifth to one quarter of the GOP.
Really? Not merely 'as expected'?Obama for America: POTUS will campaign in CO, WI, OH next week.*Tue: Colorado Springs & Green Bay, overnight OH. Wed: Cincinnati&Akron *
Well.... Interesting.. Very very interesting....
Ohio is expected. Surprised there are no visit to florida, NC or Va.Really? Not merely 'as expected'?
Doubtful. He's probably going there to seal the deal vs out of concern that Romney might win it. And why on earth would he go to NC ? Its a long lost cause at this point.Ohio is expected. Surprised there are no visit to florida, NC or Va.
The fact that he's going to be in Wisconsin is probably an indication of how close it might be there.
he still has thursday, friday, saturday, sunday and monday to visit virginia and florida. I think he's not taking for granted any of these states.Ohio is expected. Surprised there are no visit to florida, NC or Va.
The fact that he's going to be in Wisconsin is probably an indication of how close it might be there.
It only covers Tuesday and Wednesday next. He'll definitely be in Florida on the 4th or 5th, after stopping off in NC and VA.Ohio is expected. Surprised there are no visit to florida, NC or Va.
The fact that he's going to be in Wisconsin is probably an indication of how close it might be there.
Admittedly, only a tiny chance, but new voter registration could yet make a difference.Doubtful. He's probably going there to seal the deal vs out of concern that Romney might win it. And why on earth would he go to NC ? Its a long lost cause at this point.
Doubtful. He's probably going there to seal the deal vs out of concern that Romney might win it. And why on earth would he go to NC ? Its a long lost cause at this point.
he still has thursday, friday, saturday, sunday and monday to visit virginia and florida. I think he's not taking for granted any of these states.
The fact he's in Wisconsin gives Romney hope. Can really be considered in two ways;It only covers Tuesday and Wednesday next. He'll definitely be in Florida on the 4th or 5th, after stopping off in NC and VA.
Re Wisconsin, the only interesting bit is that he's that campaigning in the reddest parts of the state, in fact the same for CO and OH. Modestly aggressive.
The fact that he's going to Green Bay (and presumably the burbs near it) and not Madison or Milwaukee suggests anything but desperation. The same for Cincinnati versus Columbus or Cleveland, and Colorado Springs v Denver.The fact he's in Wisconsin gives Romney hope. Can really be considered in two ways;
a) desperate because if Ohio cannot be won, Wisconsin is the alternative route to EV victory.
b) that it's genuinely in play.
Hard to tell, but it's not a state that anyone would have considered in play until very very recently, it was completely ignored in the last couple of months.
There's still some hope in NC, although its bleak. If Obama's post debate surge continues for another week, he could possibly close the gap and then hope that voter turnout does the rest. Although that's probably more wishful thinking than anything else. The PPP and Grove polls that have NC as a tie or Obama ahead in recent days are interesting. If another poll or two come out showing Obama ahead then those would be reflecting his post-debate 2/3 bounce and NC might be in play again.Admittedly, only a tiny chance, but new voter registration could yet make a difference.
Agreed, especially given that PPP has been trending modestly Republican over the last month or so. Also, hardly any polls released so far have consisted entirely of post-debate 3 surveys.There's still some hope in NC, although its bleak. If Obama's post debate surge continues for another week, he could possibly close the gap and then hope that voter turnout does the rest. Although that's probably more wishful thinking than anything else. The PPP and Grove polls that have NC as a tie or Obama ahead in recent days are interesting. If another poll or two come out showing Obama ahead then those would be reflecting his post-debate 2/3 bounce and NC might be in play again.
If Ohio can't be won then Wisconsin (and Iowa) might go to Romney as well because both states contain similar demographics. That's why Ohio is a tipping point state - what happens there will be reflective of several others states. Its rather laughable that Romney and Ryan are going to get routed in the three states they are affiliated with (Mass, Michigan, and Wisconsin).The fact he's in Wisconsin gives Romney hope. Can really be considered in two ways;
a) desperate because if Ohio cannot be won, Wisconsin is the alternative route to EV victory.
b) that it's genuinely in play.
Hard to tell, but it's not a state that anyone would have considered in play until very very recently, it was completely ignored in the last couple of months.
To be fair, all of them are solid Democratic states. Even Gore lost Tennessee.If Ohio can't be won then Wisconsin (and Iowa) might go to Romney as well because both states contain similar demographics. That's why Ohio is a tipping point state - what happens there will be reflective of several others states. Its rather laughable that Romney and Ryan are going to get routed in the three states they are affiliated with (Mass, Michigan, and Wisconsin).
Disagree. While that's how you'd expect it to play out, Ohio has been unusually resilient this year, even the Romentum! after debate 1 didn't affect it much. Here's Alec MacGillis with a great piece on it from before the debates.If Ohio can't be won then Wisconsin (and Iowa) might go to Romney as well because both states contain similar demographics. That's why Ohio is a tipping point state - what happens there will be reflective of several others states. Its rather laughable that Romney and Ryan are going to get routed in the three states they are affiliated with (Mass, Michigan, and Wisconsin).
Even in RCP's slightly Republican-leaning average, Romney has never led, and crucially never gone above 47%. Would indicate that he has a low ceiling in Ohio even with all the Rasmussen and Gravis polls boosting him.I still think Obama will win Ohio. I think it might be tighter than expected though.
If you read the media right now, you would think that Romney is 10% behind in Ohio. It's probably going to be less than 2
Ohio has been resilient, but that's been because Obama has put a lot of resources in it and has been hammering Romney's remarks about letting the auto industry go bankrupt etc. The Dems correctly identified it as a critical state from the beginning, which is paying off now.Disagree. While that's how you'd expect it to play out, Ohio has been unusually resilient this year, even the Romentum! after debate 1 didn't affect it much. Here's Alec MacGillis with a great piece on it from before the debates.
http://www.tnr.com/blog/plank/107729/how-obama-made-ohio-lean-dem-state
What has caused all of this?Seems to me that politics has shifted so far to the right that Obama would have been a Republican from 1945-2000, and the current Republican platform would have been considered the fringe of the conservative party.
Looks about right.Nate Silver now predicts Obama to win 294 EV
Another reason I've distanced myself from the GOP party. The TPers caused all of this shifting. You're either far right or classifed as a liberal by these dipshits.White men are the most conservative demographic in America. In competitive areas, Republicans routinely win even in "white guy vs white guy" elections.
Don't think it's 9/11 as the GOP in the nineties wasn't much different. It had less popular, Tea Party-style influence over elites, but aside from that.What has caused all of this?
Was it 9/11 and subsequent wars?
Was it a greed/power craving by certain elements within the top level of government?
Was it a push by certain elements to ensure a gender/racial control of the nation?
Other factors?
Both candidates and VPs will be in Wisconsin over the next week.Paul Ryan got sent to Alabama the other day, and I don't think that was because they were worried about an Obama surge there. In fact, I don't know any reason why he'd need to go there, but there you go.
North Carolina demographics have shifted in Obama's favour, so if he can get out his vote it'll defy most of the national swing against him and there's a chance he could nick it. Unlikely, but the chance remains. He'll already have won the election easily if he does though so it's more vanity than anything.
If you look at the GOP now. It is made up of a very religous group...I wont call it Christian...because most of the stuff they believe in has nothing to do with Christ's teachings....and a mindless libertarian group....the teaparty.What has caused all of this?
Was it 9/11 and subsequent wars?
Was it a greed/power craving by certain elements within the top level of government?
Was it a push by certain elements to ensure a gender/racial control of the nation?
Other factors?
Romney will never get Minnesota. He wont get WI either.Minnesota's already in Obama's pocket and Wisconsin isn't far off, he's long been averaging 50% there and Romney's never really shown a lead of any sort. Iowa's almost in that category too. It's Ohio or bust. The Romney campaign just has a lot of money to spend so it may as well.
TalevangelicalbanIf you look at the GOP now. It is made up of a very religous group...I wont call it Christian...because most of the stuff they believe in has nothing to do with Christ's teachings....and a mindless libertarian group....the teaparty.
Neither of these groups are able to think critically on serious issues.
This will doom the party soon.
shorten that Marcey...and it may go viral.Talevangelicalban