Based on the Tweet from Dale Johnson above, VAR was only consulted on who the culprit was. The referees on the pitch then made their independent decision on the sanction (red card) for the hand going in the face, so surely the clear and obvious threshold should apply once the red card has been brandished.
I'm basically disagreeing with the second to last line of your timeline. It should (IMO) read, "heyo chap, that red card that you just showed is clearly and obviously and never in a million years a red card according to the laws of the game". Once he's sent to the monitor then obviously everyone watching knows that VAR has told him he's made a mistake and they always* reverse their decisions upon getting sent to the screen, which puts him under massive pressure to actually reverse his decision, even if he's not made a "clear and obvious" mistake, because as people told us a few weeks ago, when your hands go up there it's always a red card (apart from Coady, Ayew, Ziyech, tbc...).