What should be the realistic expectations for 2020-21?

[OleBoiii]

70 points would be a disaster considering how the season has gone and would arguably put Ole in line to be sacked. That’s 26 points from 48, absolutely disgraceful if that happens.

In the very first sentence I wrote "without taking recency bias into account". Top 4 was always the bare minimum, whether that means 65 points or 70 points. That shouldn't change just because we're doing much better than expected. Having said that, 26 points from 48 would be a mini collapse and reflect quite poorly on Ole.

A lot can happen, though. If the likes of Bruno, Shaw and Rashford get injured and we have poor luck with a few VAR calls, it's not unthinkable that something like this could happen.

 

[Tony247]

Realistically I think we should finish in top 4. Title is within the grasp but our last 5 games are tough making this a very difficult final push. Hence, I am not expecting the title, realistically speaking. But this is a solid foundation we have got now. Wise summer spending can take us to the title next season for sure.

For the cups, I believe FA cup is very much within the reach. EL is touch and go, anything can happen. I am expecting another semifinal at least.

 

[Giggsy13]

That's a Sheffield side who seem to have gotten their mojo back. That's three wins they have now and all in the last 5 matches. They narrowly lost to City and our match could have gone the other way especially if the officials were doing their jobs.

One league match against a side fighting relegation isn't really comparable to how we'd perform on a big European night.

As for the season, we're good enough to expect to stay in touching distance in the league and significantly improve on last year in terms of a title challenge.

I know it was against 10 men and then 9 but, hopefully, that ruthless streak we showed last night can be carried forward into games against teams looking to park the bus.

I'd expect us to do well in the Europa but it's a Cup competition so nothing is guaranteed there.

100% this. You can’t underestimate relegation teams in the tail end of the season. These can end up being the cagiest and toughest games.

 

[Giggsy13]

In the very first sentence I wrote "without taking recency bias into account". Top 4 was always the bare minimum, whether that means 65 points or 70 points. That shouldn't change just because we're doing much better than expected. Having said that, 26 points from 48 would be a mini collapse and reflect quite poorly on Ole.

A lot can happen, though. If the likes of Bruno, Shaw and Rashford get injured and we have poor luck with a few VAR calls, it's not unthinkable that something like this could happen.

You have to readjust expectations as the season goes and 70 points is a disaster at this point. It’s not recency bias, considering the trend this season has shown we’re capable of putting up a decent challenge. Progress is not finishing 4 points better than last even if it achieves top 4, thats not real improvement. If their is an injury crisis, as you suggest then maybe it’s understandable. Your point on VAR is off the mark, suggesting that we’ve heavily benefitted from it this year, which is far from the truth and simply a bullshit ABU media narrative.

 

[Tom Cato]

You have to readjust expectations as the season goes and 70 points is a disaster at this point. It’s not recency bias, considering the trend this season has shown we’re capable of putting up a decent challenge. Progress is not finishing 4 points better than last even if it achieves top 4, thats not real improvement. If their is an injury crisis, as you suggest then maybe it’s understandable. Your point on VAR is off the mark, suggesting that we’ve heavily benefitted from it this year, which is far from the truth and simply a bullshit ABU media narrative.

So what are you happy with?

 

[OleBoiii]

You have to readjust expectations as the season goes and 70 points is a disaster at this point. It’s not recency bias, considering the trend this season has shown we’re capable of putting up a decent challenge. Progress is not finishing 4 points better than last even if it achieves top 4, thats not real improvement.

Ok, but then it must go both ways. A bad first half of the season should then lower expectations for where we end up on the table. But that's not how things work. Minimum demands are minimum demands. If you get 25 points in the first half of the season, then you better get 45 in the next half even if that's insanely difficult. You judge managers based on league finishes first and foremost.

You can make some pretty reasonable demands based on squad strength at the beginning of a season. I thought we were a 70-75 points team. Not good enough to challenge for a title, but strong enough to get top 4 fairly comfortably. If we were to end up in that range, then we have done what is reasonable to expect. Anything above should be considered considerable improvement.

 

[Giggsy13]

So what are you happy with?

80 + points and a trophy, FA Cup preferred over Europa. These are achievable targets based on how the season has gone. Winning a trophy is very important for this squad to build up their confidence and shed the label that’s currently attached to them of being bottlers after 4 SF losses.

 

[RashfordisRed]

Was thinking about this last night and I for one am very happy with where we are, yes we have had some tough to take results, in an ideal world we hold our lead vs Leicester, do what we should have vs Sheff Utd (or you could say the officials do what they should have) and beat one of Arsenal / Liverpool with the chances we had - that would have really put us in prime position to press forward and try and establish a buffer even from City with their upcoming fixtures, but on the flipside we could not have argued with dropping points against Aston Villa / Wolves or even Fulham and pretty much all fans who watch Utd were expecting a blip somewhere.

Now moving onto expectations, I think the next 4 weeks or so will really put clarity on the title race:

We have Everton (h), WBA (a) and Newcastle (h) whilst during the same time City have Liverpool (a), Spurs (h) and Arsenal (a) - I think if City somehow come through that with a full house, we probably need to accept the title is probably too much of a longshot to have hope for. My realistic expectation for us therefore is to do our side of the business and take 9 points, if City do trip up in those games we could be pretty close and have them at the Etihad in the not too distant future in which case I probably would say to take focus of the Europa league, especially in the away games making sure Maguire, Shaw, AWB, Bruno are rested.

The hope is that if we keep our end of the bargain, we should be pretty comfortably in the top 4, and at that stage if it looks like City are going to run away with it - we could shift focus to securing top 4, but give the 2 cups a real good go.

In summary, realistically hoping for 1 of the following 2:

- Be heavily involved in the title race, effectively either winning it or being within 3 points of the winners - in this case, if we end up exiting the cups so be it
- Be comfortably in the top 4 and win one of the cups

I would prefer the first option, and seeing more of Telles, Tuanzebe, Donny & Diallo in the cups for as long as we are in them - as we are starting to reach the time we need to seriously assess what we need in the summer window and need to see what they can offer going forward.

 

[roonster09]

We have very good first 11, so with few good additions for both first 11 and squad we should look for comfortable top 4 finish, with improvement in all areas.

This was my expectations before the season started. We are on track but would be disappointing now if we don't challenge for the league.

 

[Skåre Willoch]

As long as we're in the title mix until the end, or close to the end, I don't really care about our total points at all.

Play som cracking football, score plenty, win most games, and keep the title within reach until gameweek 35+!

 

[romufc]

Lets keep pushing City to the end, if we are within 8 points of them, it will be an okay season, a trophy would cap it of nicely.

To do that, we need to make sure we take every game seriously.

 

[Siorac]

70 points would be a disaster considering how the season has gone and would arguably put Ole in line to be sacked. That’s 26 points from 48, absolutely disgraceful if that happens.

We’re on pace for 80 + points, which in itself would be a great achievement for this squad post-Fergie. We’ve only achieved that total once under Jose. 80 to 85 points is realistic at this stage and would probably get us very close to the title.

We have 44 points in 22 games so we're on pace for 76 points. We'd have to improve our PPG ratio to get to 80+.

I agree that 70, from this position, would be incredibly disappointing. Scratch that, it would be incredibly disappointing anyway: we got 66 last season with Pogba missing most of the season and Bruno only joining halfway through. Just an extra 4 points on top of a season that saw regular playing time for Lingard and Pereira would have to be seen as a failure unless there's a serious injury crisis at some point.

 

[Withnail]

70 points would be a disaster considering how the season has gone and would arguably put Ole in line to be sacked. That’s 26 points from 48, absolutely disgraceful if that happens.

We’re on pace for 80 + points, which in itself would be a great achievement for this squad post-Fergie. We’ve only achieved that total once under Jose. 80 to 85 points is realistic at this stage and would probably get us very close to the title.

70pts would be disappointing but I think you've got your maths wrong there. City are on course for 83 as they've only played 20 games.

We are on course for 76pts. 22 games, 44pts so 2pts per game so far. Over 38 games that's 76.

Even we pretend the Crystal Palace and Aston Villa games didn't happen (44 pts from 20 games and extrapolate out to 36 games) we are still only on course for 79pts.

85pts at this stage would mean 41pts from the remaining 16 games and would mean picking up more than 2.5pts per game between now and the end of the season. That would be a phenomenal achievement and not very realistic in my opinion.

 

[flappyjay]

Also we picked up the most points in the second half of the season. I think our starting 11 is fine for top 4, issues arise when we have to rely on Andreas, Mata or Lingard. People keep mentioning last season and not pointing out the going ons of the 1st half of the season. At times we had Andreas playing cm. Against Sheffield away we subbed out Andreas from cm to replace him with Lingard that's how thin we were in midfield.

I actually underestimated us a bit

 

[Judas]

Comfortably top 4, not a million miles away from whoever challenges for the title, and a trophy. The squad still needs work, but the second half of the season showed what we can be capable of. Even though I expect this season to be a heavy slog for most teams and some really bleak performances from everyone, we still have a standard we should be reaching.

This is what I said in September, and it's not really changed. I'm glad so far we're doing what I expected from this group, if not maybe a bit better.

 

[Giggsy13]

70pts would be disappointing but I think you've got your maths wrong there. City are on course for 83 as they've only played 20 games.

We are on course for 76pts. 22 games, 44pts so 2pts per game so far. Over 38 games that's 76.

Even we pretend the Crystal Palace and Aston Villa games didn't happen (44 pts from 20 games and extrapolate out to 36 games) we are still only on course for 79pts.

85pts at this stage would mean 41pts from the remaining 16 games and would mean picking up more than 2.5pts per game between now and the end of the season. That would be a phenomenal achievement and not very realistic in my opinion.

Nothing wrong with being a tad optimistic after the shit we've been served up the past 8 years! I think City will probably go over 83 points based on their current form. They have 54 points left to play for and I can see them getting close to 90 points. Of course I'm happy to be wrong, this season has been very unpredictable.

 

[el3mel]

2nd or close 3rd with 80 points or so.
QF in CL.
Good run in a domestic cup.

Going well so far, apart from the CL part.

 

[Withnail]

Nothing wrong with being a tad optimistic after the shit we've been served up the past 8 years! I think City will probably go over 83 points based on their current form. They have 54 points left to play for and I can see them getting close to 90 points. Of course I'm happy to be wrong, this season has been very unpredictable.

Maybe so but while 70 would be disappointing I think we'll be doing well to get 80.

 

[Giggsy13]

Maybe so but while 70 would be disappointing I think we'll be doing well to get 80.

I agree 80 points would be a very good season considering we’ve only reached that total once since Fergie retired.

 

[Tony247]

Time to revisit this thread for those who replied.

 

[Tony247]

To be fair, after last summer transfer debacle hardly anyone expected top 2 finish. I too lowered my expectations. So, well done Ole and the team.

 

[Tony247]

We will be closer to 1st than last season and end up around 75p fighting for 3rd with the squad we have right now. With further improvements (RW/DC) we will close the gap further.
- Us outside top 6 would be a disastrous season
- Us outside top 4,but inside top 6 would be below par
- Us ending 4th would be on par with our squad strenght relative to the rest.
- Us ending 3rd would be above what we can expect with our current squad
- Us putting up a title-challenge ending 1st, 2nd or 3rd would be a massive success. Not very realistic without further improvements of the squad.

Hmm, close enough?

 

[Tony247]

Top 3/4 is our absolute ceiling as things stand.
Add Sancho and a starting centre back of pace and we have half a chance of really competing.

Exceeded expecation?

 

[Tony247]

Top 4 should be a must, with Sancho I think we can finish from 2-4, Chelsea are obviously stronger then us with the signings they made but Liverpool have stood still and haven’t improved so I think they might not be as strong next season, I’m going
1. City
2. Chelsea
3. Man Utd
4. Liverpool

Finished 2nd without Sancho. Good call though.

 

[Tony247]

As it stands, solidifying top four with a better points total in the mid-late 70’s is perfectly achievable. There’s a lot of talk about Chelsea but we don’t know how any of their new players are going to adapt and we forget that despite them finishing so close to us last year, since we got Bruno in and the team took shape, we’ve been significantly better than them. This is them catching up! They bought Werner? Ok I still think Martial is better. They bought Ziyech? Ok I think Sancho is definitely better (if we get him) and Greenwood isn’t far behind. They are buying a keeper? We’ve got better keepers. Havertz? Is he better than Bruno? Maybe one day but not now. There’s no point in worrying about their squad until we hat it can do. I’m confident we’ll get Sancho and we’ll stay above them, hell I even think we can rival City.

So, to summarise, exceeded expectations? Good analysis on Chelsea. Well done.

 

[FrankDrebin]

Top 4 and a decent cup run.

Looking good.

 

[Tony247]

If we bring in Sancho, I’d be disappointed if we didn’t finish third. We know about Liverpool, but I’m not sure City is a lock for top two. Chelsea are in the conversation too, no doubt at all about that.

After that, vertigo sets in as you look down the table.

Finished second without Sancho. Exceeded expectations?

 

[Tony247]

Top four and maybe a cup, knockout stages of the Champions League. Grounds for optimism is we have young players who should improve and a working midfield. Downside, we are very light on viable defensive options. If we are able to bring in Sancho and A.N.Other then who knows?

Top 2 and in a cup final.

 

[charlenefan]

I agree with this though not sure you can target a trophy though given you're basically talking about the league cup (are we even in it next season?) and the FA Cup and they'll be other sides potentially better than us who will also target them

The points thing is the most crucial thing, 75-85 points would mark tangible clear progression

We'll fall short of that points total though given the circumstances of the scheduling and the players switching off once top 4 (and realistically 2nd place) was secure I'm not going to lose my shit

Wasn't expecting us to fall at the group stage in the UCL so wasn't expecting the EL to once again be a trophy we could win

 

[Tony247]

Going to be an extremely rough season and a hard battle to try for fourth. Getting there will probably require United's closest competitors to feck up in addition to everything working out at United.

Do you now think we are second on merit?

 

[Tony247]

Looking good.

Congratulations.

 

[FrankDrebin]

Congratulations.

I was expecting myself to be far more pessimistic ,tbh.

 

[Tony247]

I was expecting myself to be far more pessimistic ,tbh.

That's why I congratulated you. Team did better than your expectations.

 

[Tony247]

We'll fall short of that points total though given the circumstances of the scheduling and the players switching off once top 4 (and realistically 2nd place) was secure I'm not going to lose my shit

Wasn't expecting us to fall at the group stage in the UCL so wasn't expecting the EL to once again be a trophy we could win

You made a good call. Yeh, I wasn't expecting us to get dropped out from CL group stage. But at least the team compensated it with a good run in EL. Fingers crossed for the final.

 

[Tony247]

I wonder why some people think we can qualify for CL? Yes if other teams didn't buy any players we may have a chance. But other teams have improved a lot. We didn't. So no way we can qualify for CL now without getting new players. I would say Liverpool, City top two with Chelsea, Everton, Arsenal and Spurs for the top 3 and 4 with us fighting for 5th or 6th place.

You must be really happy by now!

 

[bsCallout]

All we needed was one point from three games to make our season look much better. Getting out the groups.

I always debate with myself though whether a final 16 in CL is better than a Europa League win. I don't think it is.

 

[Tony247]

Getting top 4 would be a good result based on the players and coach we have, but we will probably end up top 6.

Happy? Satisfied?

 

[bsCallout]

Exceeded expecation?

Tony is on it. I wonder how many of these spend their time saying how bad our season has been despite predicting us to not doing as good as we have.

 

[Tony247]

Top5-6 will be difficult with the rise of Everton and Arsenal rapidly healing the wounds of 19-20.

I didn't write before today but nothing has changed.

I expect us to be scrapping with Arsenal for 4th spot. Maybe Tottenham as well.

I reckon Chelsea and Arsenal will both post 70+ points and I don’t see United doing it.

It'll be a scrap for top 4 again. Best case.

After past season I expected us to strengthen and push on and comfortably secure top 4. But very unlikely. Chelsea will be there, Spurs won't be as bad as last season and Arsenal are much better.

You guys really underestimated the elite level manager.

 

[romufc]

I wonder why some people think we can qualify for CL? Yes if other teams didn't buy any players we may have a chance. But other teams have improved a lot. We didn't. So no way we can qualify for CL now without getting new players. I would say Liverpool, City top two with Chelsea, Everton, Arsenal and Spurs for the top 3 and 4 with us fighting for 5th or 6th place.

Agree 100%. 5th or 6th is where we will finish!

I have us finishing 6th or 7th at the moment.

Deluded fans - we will finish top 4 easily

Realists - we will be lucky to get top 6.

I reckon Chelsea and Arsenal will both post 70+ points and I don’t see United doing it.

Best case scenario is 4th . Most likely 6-8

Getting top 4 would be a good result based on the players and coach we have, but we will probably end up top 6.

6th if we do well.

5th looks realistic. Although I think we might finish 6th or 7th.

8th at best

Hope we finish 10th. Maybe that will get Woodward out.

It'll be a scrap for top 4 again. Best case.

After past season I expected us to strengthen and push on and comfortably secure top 4. But very unlikely. Chelsea will be there, Spurs won't be as bad as last season and Arsenal are much better.

We fluked our way into the too 4 last year with 66 points with so many top teams being shit as well.

Don't really see us getting more than 70 points this year and it'll be a struggle for top 4.

I mean look at what alot of fans expected us to get. We are sitting comfortably in 2nd, surely we have to give some credit to the manager.

I mean a few on here thought Arteta was something special and they are 9th.