Film Why are many blockbuster movies failing at the box office?

[BusbyMalone]

So what do you think is causing the current “Flopbuster” era? The two most recent ones are Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny and The Flash. But even beyond them, you have Fast X, Ant-Man Quantumania, Shazam 2, The Little Mermaid, Elemental, Dungeons and Dragons, Transformers Rise of the Beasts…

There's probably more here that I’ve missed. A lot of these movies have either severely underperformed, or have been outright box office bombs. There are some successes, of course. John Wick 4 performed well relative to its budget. The new Spider-Verse movie did well, I think. But we’re looking at 10 (or more) big, tentpole movies failing miserably.

What do you think is the issue here? Budgets are a big one, of course. Apparently, the new Indiana Jones cost $295m before marketing! Which is just fecking nuts!

 

[Salt Bailly]

So what do you think is causing the current “Flopbuster” era? The two most recent ones are Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny and The Flash. But even beyond them, you have Fast X, Ant-Man Quantumania, Shazam 2, The Little Mermaid, Elemental, Dungeons and Dragons, Transformers Rise of the Beasts…

There's probably more here that I’ve missed. A lot of these movies have either severely underperformed, or have been outright box office bombs. There are some successes, of course. John Wick 4 performed well relative to its budget. The new Spider-Verse movie did well, I think. But we’re looking at 10 (or more) big, tentpole movies failing miserably.

What do you think is the issue here? Budgets are a big one, of course. Apparently, the new Indiana Jones cost $295m before marketing! Which is just fecking nuts!

Mind-boggling. Fast X was $340m too. Nolan, Cruise and Gerwig to save the day this summer.

 

[Big Andy]

As you say, the up front costs to make these films is mental. So the vast majority of them will struggle. However they say flop and it's based upon opening weekend figures, but I'd wager that once they hit the shelves on DVD/Blu-Ray/Digital Purchasing/Rental, then they'll start to eventually claw most of it back.

 

[Devil You Know]

I invested in my home setup during lockdown, and now I don't see any point in paying to go to the cinema. If that means I have to wait a few weeks for the home release so be it.

I think the number of reboots and sequels is also an issue. This isn't so bad if it's action driven like John Wick or Maverick, or an "event" like Avatar. But I know I'm not going to see anything new in the next Marvel or Indiana Jones movie.

 

[stepic]

the time it takes for movies to wind up on streaming services can be pretty small at times. lots of people probably just wait for that.

 

[Moby]

There should be no surprise at an Indiana Jones movie being shite.

 

[HTG]

Because the market for stupid shit movies is oversaturated and that oversaturation is finally catching up with Hollywood.

 

[buckooo1978]

Mind-boggling. Fast X was $340m too. Nolan, Cruise and Gerwig to save the day this summer.

Fast X has made 722 million so far?!

 

[Oranges038]

Probably because most films are hack job reboots or a load of cgi generated superhero nonsense with the same 5 people in them.

And they usually end up on the dodgy boxes in a couple of weeks anyway.

 

[Vault Dweller]

Fast X has made 722 million so far?!

That's because Jason Momoa is mint.

 

[We need an rvn]

Think it's down to a number of reasons isn't it.

- The cost to make the things is ridiculously expensive, which is never a good place to start.
- In the past, people used to go to the movies and if they loved the movie, you buy the dvd afterwards. These days, it costs a small fortune to go to the movies, and people don't buy dvd's much anymore as it's all streamed and the cost per month of that is nothing compared to one dvd.
- How many marvel movies do they have to make before they realise people are going to stop going (and repeat that for Indiana 5, should have learnt their lesson after the diamond skull flop)

 

[Cheimoon]

The costs of blockbusters are insane now, and lots of films appear on streaming right away. People are also more used to watching films at home, so why bother going to a cinema? Or that's my simple logic, anyway.

I don't get those insane production costs though. A film like Everything Everywhere All At Once cost a fraction of that and looked totally alright. So much money is wasted on getting big names to star and huge VFX efforts, without much (if any) value-add in terms of film quality.

Not a blockbuster, but same for Air btw. Take a couple of lesser known actors (but quality anyway; there are tons of people in that category) and the film costs a fraction of its US$70-90M budget and makes a big profit instead of just running break-even. (Yes, fewer people would come and see it if Affleck, Damon, etc. don't feature; but that not so many that it would offset the costs saved.)

Fast X has made 722 million so far?!

Marketing costs are mind-boggling. I have no idea for this film, but they might well be only starting to get near break-even with that income.

 

[Vidyoyo]

Cost of going to the cinema is too high for a lot of people. I still go maybe once a month but it only costs me £7 with my membership. £9 would be my limit (local indie cinema).

More widely I think Hollywood has an issue appealing to people who are now very used to the convenience of watching movies at home. They also started treating their franchises as pointless money makers around the 2010s when the Marvel/FF shit started taking off. I think it's caught up with them as people have stopped caring about supporting them.

People still go and watch great movies even if it's not their usual jam. Look at the success of Parasite.

 

[JPRouve]

The lack of immediate success is probably due to a lack of original contents among these box office productions. There is nothing that makes you want to see those movies asap or at all, people will eventually watch them and money will be made out of them but I don't know if they elicit passion or enthusiasm.

 

[Scandi Red]

Blockbusters have always cost a fortune, with roughly half the budget being spent on marketing alone.

Cinema attendance is going down which means that more blockbusters will fail. So we need to understand why people aren't going to the movies. I personally don't think that it's a pricing issue. Blockbusters typically target the younger demographics, but I don't think that Gen Z (and younger) are so fond of going to the movie theaters. It's a dying art form that is slowly becoming more of a cultural experience.

 

[buckooo1978]

That's because Jason Momoa is mint.

Im no fan of the franchise but it was actually semi-good ridiculous rather than awful ridiculous.

Momoa was entertaining in it....

fair play to Vin Diesel at nearly 60 - think he was flexing his muscles, fists clenched in every scene to appear more muscled

 

[flameinthesun]

Can only say for myself but for years now the only "Blockbusters" I went to the cinema for were Marvel films and that was mainly due to the way they connected the stories, the characters of the first 4 phases and the audience interaction. Outside of that I'd go for anything from Nolan, the odd Horror and the likes of Dune/Blade Runner. Even during that time I think I mentioned on here that the majority of films, even blockbusters just don't need to be seen on the big screen. I can choose to watch a meh blockbuster in the cinema or watch it on a 60inch at home with surround sound nice and comfy. Now after the Endgame I'm a bit fatigued from Marvel etc and a film has to have a big draw to get me in the cinema. Since Endgame the only movies i've seen in the cinema are Wakanda Forever, Avatar 2, Spiderman 3, dr Strange 2 and Dune. I think there are probably a lot of people like me who just can't be bothered with going to the cinema nowadays unless its something exceptional e.g. Dune 2 and Oppenhemier are examples of must go to the cinema to see. Other than that the cinema just isn't a draw anymore and why would I go to watch The Flash when I can spend that same night watching another "Blockbuster" at home like Extraction 2. I just need to wait a couple months and it'll be available to watch from home anyway. That sense of urgency to watch a film in the cinema is I think gone and for a lot of people I'm not sure it is coming back.

 

[Dirty Schwein]

Younger generation attention span and cost of going cinema.

Most of the older people are busier, have kids, expensive bills on top of a low tolerance to idiots chatting through the film.

I recently bought a massive TV and have no reason to go cinema. I didn't even go when I had a 50". It's just so expensive and so much hassle. I only go once a month as I get 2 free tickets monthly so wanna use them up.

It doesn't help that the many films are also shit and most quickly end up on streaming services.

 

[VorZakone]

Maybe those movies are just shit and most people know it?

 

[JPRouve]

Younger generation attention span and cost of going cinema.

Most of the older people are busier, have kids, expensive bills on top of a low tolerance to idiots chatting through the film.

I recently bought a massive TV and have no reason to go cinema. I didn't even go when I had a 50". It's just so expensive and so much hassle. I only go once a month as I get 2 free tickets monthly so wanna use them up.

It doesn't help that the many films are also shit and most quickly end up on streaming services.

My man wrote all of that to tell us that he bought a fancy TV.

 

[Dirty Schwein]

My man wrote all of that to tell us that he bought a fancy TV.

Mate I'm massively in the dog house. Was an impulsive buy. But wife hasn't thrown me out the bed because she knows that's what I want (so I can watch movies on it lying on the couch)

 

[do.ob]

Eventually even the biggest idiot must get tired of watching fast&furious #25 and marvel movie #383829, especially since they were cringe to begin with and went downhill from there.

 

[Redlambs]

Boredom.

I'm mildly interested in seeing Indie, but I'm over the Marvel stuff and just have no interest in yet another Fast film. My boys are exactly the same, they just don't care about yet another superhero or transformers film.

I imagine it's the same for a lot of people/families. Plus with the cost if living shit going on in the world, where people might just go for something to do, that isn't a market anymore if belts are tight.

 

[dinostar77]

Cause many are utter garbage. Theres a reason Top Gun Maverick did so well and why the latest MI movie will do well. Its the quality of the movie.

Now everyone can pretty much stream movies at home, it takes something top notch to go watch in the cinema.

 

[Sky1981]

Alot of those flops arent a surprise. People have predicted they will flops for a logical reason.

But hey. What's flop to us is still a BEP to the very least with the producer. Some still make double their investment even being flop. Not to mention future revenue from stream and rights

 

[noodlehair]

A) Over the last 15-20 years the quality of the average blockbuster has gone from a 6/10 (stupid and rubbish but reasonably entertaining) to somewhere around a -3/10 (Why are they still making Transformers movies and it somehow isn't a federal crime). It just seems like any bugger can make an awful action film now. There's so many of them and you'd think that would raise the bar but it actually seems to keep getting lower, and I think its reached a saturation point where something has to give.

B) Also too many garbage re-makes or sequels that are basically just rip-offs of the original/last film except dumbed down by about 500%, in many cases despite the original film itself being pretty dumb. No one wanted an Independence Day 2 or a Jurassic Park movie where Chris Pratt is head of a velociraptor motorbike gang. This also applies to Marvel which has just re-hashed the same formula over and over while upping the stupid level slightly from one film to the next. They have managed to make 3 separate films about a man who's superpower is being able to become the size of an ant and run around with the ants.

C) Production cost going up while film quality declines, which makes no sense but is what is happening. Even the special effects don't seem to get much better anymore. Like they all just buy them from the SFX equivalent of PoundWorld, except without the bit where its cheap.

D) We had a massive pandemic that changed a lot of people's behaviors, especially towards leaving the house for things that aren't really worth leaving the house for, and now we have a massive cost of living crisis arising from said pandemic which means people are less inclined to spend money on things that aren't worth the price. Watching a really bad film in a sticky floored room full of strangers and other people's annoying children, probably isn't worth about £15 each when you have to make decisions about what is worth your disposable income (if you even have any).

I mean I just watched Black Adam the other day for the first time. A few years ago that might have been a cinema trip, but it was so bad it annoyed me purely out of the time it took out of my evening to watch it in my own living room. You can't charge people money to basically waste their time and expect them to keep paying up.

 

[Bebestation]

For me movies have to be normal to do well/be widely liked on netflix. Ever since Netflix i dont see weird films pop up like Fight Club, Pulp Fiction, American beauty, Matrix, Kill Bill, The Mummy or even the Toy Story.

Movies would attract interest/money both in the cinema &/or by Blu Ray - now that 2nd burst of interest in a movie has stopped due to Netflix so Movies would rather be largely liked than minorly absolutely adorered.

This coupled with the decade or 2 of superhero films & triologies - hollywood found an easy way to make movies that are generally liked by the majority than absolutely loved by a minority.

The Dark Knight was a legendary film that changed Hollywood for the worse. The interest on that film due to ledgers death & performance was unreal & films has never been the same.

 

[BusbyMalone]

Mind-boggling. Fast X was $340m too. Nolan, Cruise and Gerwig to save the day this summer.

Yeah, I think Mission Impossible is going to smash it. Cruise seems like he's on a one-man mission to save the blockbuster. I think Barbie will do well, but not sure about Oppenheimer. The subject matter, and the fact that it's a three-hour epic, not sure how many will flock to see it. I definitely am.

Although Dunkirk did really well at the box office I think. So we'll see.

 

[Salt Bailly]

Yeah, I think Mission Impossible is going to smash it. Cruise seems like he's on a one-man mission to save the blockbuster. I think Barbie will do well, but not sure about Oppenheimer. The subject matter, and the fact that it's a three-hour epic, not sure how many will flock to see it. I definitely am.

Although Dunkirk did really well at the box office I think. So we'll see.

Oppenheimer has the benefit of a comparatively low budget of $100m, so will likely break even around the $300m mark. I reckon it'll hit $400-450m.

 

[BusbyMalone]

As you say, the up front costs to make these films is mental. So the vast majority of them will struggle. However they say flop and it's based upon opening weekend figures, but I'd wager that once they hit the shelves on DVD/Blu-Ray/Digital Purchasing/Rental, then they'll start to eventually claw most of it back.

Not sure if DVDs and Blu-Ray really make a difference anymore, really. Back in the day, these were huge for a film's profitability, and I don't think rentals come close to making the money that DVDs did back then.

 

[Massive Spanner]

A lot of people aren’t bothered with the cinema anymore since Covid. We have great tvs and the films come out on streaming platforms within a few months so why pay the cost of a restaurant meal to go see them in a cinema anymore? I haven’t gone at all since Covid and I haven’t even been arsed to try.

 

[Devil You Know]

A lot of people aren’t bothered with the cinema anymore since Covid. We have great tvs and the films come out on streaming platforms within a few months so why pay the cost of a restaurant meal to go see them in a cinema anymore? I haven’t gone at all since Covid and I haven’t even been arsed to try.

I think this is an important factor.

In the olden days, movies were the premium entertainment medium and TV was seen as empty fluff. I think that reputation has flipped in the last few years. These days, you're far more likely to find a substantial/engaging story on a Netflix or HBO show than a Disney blockbuster.

 

[BusbyMalone]

Fast X has made 722 million so far?!

It did do well internationally. I think domestically is where it wasn't so good. The two movies before this one performed better.

Also, the film cost $340 million dollars!

 

[caid]

Home cinemas exist and bad movies tend to flop.
The movies listed are shit and in most cases people knew they were going to be shit as soon as they were announced.

 

[BusbyMalone]

Black Adam is another big, superhero movie that came out and shit the bed. I'm always hesitant to say superhero fatigue because then you get a string of them that absolutely smash it.

Not so much this summer though, obviously.

 

[Scarlett Dracarys]

I think people have forgotten how fun it is to go the the theatre. The cool recliners here are a hit. Nothing beats watching a movie with the audience reaction in the background and eating shit popcorn. People nowadays are more antisocial and most of this generation are the ones who prefer to stay home and play video games. Human interaction isn't at the top of their list.
Nothing can top the audience's reaction when Legolas killed that Mammoth in LOTR. The cheering at the end too. We can't get that at home.

 

[Vidyoyo]

Re: People being less inclined to watch movies, I wonder if the demise of professional critics might be a factor?

About 10 years ago the main way you'd hear about new movies is from professional critics and many of them did a good job curating what was good and not, whether through specialist film websites or mainstream newspaper outlets.

Personally I would often tune in to things like Mark Kermode on a Radio 5, or check out the latest Peter Bradshaw review just because they usually had fairly decent opinions. I rarely do this anymore and I guess part of the reason is because we now have so many ways to gather an opinion now that it doesn't seem as valuable to get your view from an expert. I think in doing this though we've ended up giving up on what was actually a very useful way of filtering out what was good and bad.

 

[BusbyMalone]

Oppenheimer has the benefit of a comparatively low budget of $100m, so will likely break even around the $300m mark. I reckon it'll hit $400-450m.

Yeah, that's basically the theme in all this. Most of these movies that are "failing" are due to their absurd budget. $340 million dollars for Fast X. The new Indie film cost more than the previous four put together!

Quote here by Robbie Collin:

By the end of this summer, the preceding 12 months will have seen four of the 10 most expensive films ever made.

 

[caid]

I think people have forgotten how fun it is to go the the theatre. The cool recliners here are a hit. Nothing beats watching a movie with the audience reaction in the background and eating shit popcorn. People nowadays are more antisocial and most of this generation are the ones who prefer to stay home and play video games. Human interaction isn't at the top of their list.
Nothing can top the audience's reaction when Legolas killed that Mammoth in LOTR. The cheering at the end too. We can't get that at home.

I'm not sure that audience interaction thing exists in Ireland. I dont think i've ever seen an audience cheer at a movie. I guess i dont tend to go on opening weekends, maybe its more common there?

 

[pacifictheme]

I think people have forgotten how fun it is to go the the theatre. The cool recliners here are a hit. Nothing beats watching a movie with the audience reaction in the background and eating shit popcorn. People nowadays are more antisocial and most of this generation are the ones who prefer to stay home and play video games. Human interaction isn't at the top of their list.
Nothing can top the audience's reaction when Legolas killed that Mammoth in LOTR. The cheering at the end too. We can't get that at home.

Cheering at the end of a movie is truly tragic carry on and going to the cinema is one of the least social activities I can think of.

COVID obviously has a big part to play, as well as people having better home movie set ups than ever and the speed at which lots of stuff comes out to rent or buy.

Cinemas can be a massive rip off, a family of four can pay over 40 quid to watch a film, it's not good value at all.

There has also been a rise in the quality of TV shows. Look at stuff like succession and that game of thrones spin off. Brilliant shows you can enjoy in your own home, much better than going to watch some abysmal marvel or Indiana Jones film.