SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)

[TheReligion]

Tell your boss to feck off. Shits going down anyway, let's walk tall at least.

 

[redshaw]

The toilet paper phenomenon in UK is still odd.

Did start in Australia and weirdly they had barely any cases. The viral videos seems to have planted a seed here

 

[Revan]

That would be Italy. Which is very worrying.

Not really. Italy is not doing much testing, and the testing distribution for age does not reflect the age distribution. Their fatality data is a severe overestimate, which is why it is so high.

Bear with me:

Assumption: No country is cheating by underreporting deaths. So, if someone dies from corona then it counts as death from the corona.

From this assumption, I would say that countries with the lowest fatality rate (and a high number of testings) are closest to the real fatality rate. This is simply logical if every death fro corona is reported as a death from corona, then under no circumstances, the official fatality rate can be higher than the real fatality rate.

Assumption 2: Every country misses some people who are infected (even Germany and South Korea).

This means that the official fatality rate is again an overestimate of the real fatality rate. Essentially, the 0.2% fatality rate in Germany is an overestimate. Same for South Korea's 0.7%. Or Bahrain's 0.3%.

Now, it is also not a coincidence that there is a negative correlation between the number of testings and the number of deaths. The more testing, the less deaths (Singapore, Korea, Germany, Bahrain). This strengthens my assumptions. Those countries are having fewer deaths simply cause they are finding more young people who do not show symptoms as positive for the virus. By simply testing more people.

I think that the logic is relatively sound, though there are some holes in it:

1) My assumptions do not count for age. But it is not a big problem, we already know that most of tested people are oldish (cause they get sick easily, and then do a test). Again, any fatality rate is overestimate. Also, not many kids are being tested. With kids surviving but not being counted as infected, again any official fatality rate is an overestimate.
2) My assumptions do not count for different strains of the virus (a possibility, but still we do not know much except there seems to be two different strains of it).
3) Some people who are sick will die, and so the fatality rate will increase. This is the only point that can increase the official mortality rate. But then, Germany has only 2 critical cases, and Bahrain has 3.
4) There are 2 viruses which are similar to each other, and analysis do not count for it. I think this is a very wild guess, with extremely low probability.

If I have to bet, I would say that the true fatality rate is somewhere between 0.1-0.5% assuming that the medical system is working and the assumption 1 is correct (assumption 2 is correct).

Again, this is hardly a scientific analysis, and for that much more data is needed. It is just me finding it hard to concentrate on my real work. But I think that the logic does not have many bugs.

 

[Camy89]

Partner has had potentially transmittable interaction with positive COVID patient. She's upset about it. It wasn't her fault, but has shaken her considerably. She'll be ok, I'm the one with asthma. Will keep you updated with possibly interesting proceedings!

 

[Dante]

So what changed between last Friday and this Friday that meant closing schools a week later than Ireland was the right thing to do? Come on now. It couldn’t be more obvious that the Uk went with what they thought was the best approach (based on whatever outcome they prioritised - presumably economic?) but had to back down when it became obvious they were a total outlier and the public were furious about their more laissez faire strategy.

To be honest, I can see some logic in their approach. Get this thing over as quickly as possible. If they strongly believed that that was the right thing to do then the onus was on them to share their rationale with all of their neighbours and convince them to do the same. Refusing to accept that no European country can act in isolation and we all need an aligned approach smacks of the Brexit bloody-mindedness that sums up BoJo and his advisors.

Infection rates, as much as anything, I'd hazard. It was always a matter of when not if.

Whether Whitty and Vallance were taken by surprise or not, I have no idea.

I think too much has been made of this apparently 'laissez-faire' approach. The initial inaction was presumed to be as such, but aside from one mention of 'herd immunity' it looks like we're following the same gameplan as everybody else. All the cards are still on the table. It's simply that we're waiting to play them later in the game for maximum effectiveness.

If waiting too long makes them ineffective, then the plan will have been a failure and we can start throwing around blame. But right now, the logic makes sense.

We can only take draconian measures a limited number of times, and for a limited amount of time each. We've not got to the point yet where playing our trump card will save the greatest number of lives.

 

[Don't Kill Bill]

So what changed between last Friday and this Friday that meant closing schools a week later than Ireland was the right thing to do? Come on now. It couldn’t be more obvious that the Uk went with what they thought was the best approach (based on whatever outcome they prioritised - presumably economic?) but had to back down when it became obvious they were a total outlier and the public were furious about their more laissez faire strategy.

To be honest, I can see some logic in their approach. Get this thing over as quickly as possible. A prolonged economic shock can kill more people than a virus. If they strongly believed that that was the right thing to do then the onus was on them to share their rationale with all of their neighbours and convince them to do the same. Refusing to accept that no European country can act in isolation and we all need an aligned approach smacks of the Brexit bloody-mindedness that sums up BoJo and his advisors.

Why did the Scottish first minister wait to close schools then?

 

[TheReligion]

All the talk of military lockdown is misplaced I think.

We have just 135,000 police after tory cuts and at 95,000 active personnel, a smaller military than at any time since waterloo for the same reason.

Yes, they are armed, but there are two issues with that. First, asking your armed forces to fire on your own civilians is pretty much game over for a society. And if they ever did, it changes the rules forever. There are 65 million people, guns or not they are not winning that fight.

Johnson will, if he is sensible, avoid testing any of that at all costs.

It won't be a military lock down. They have no powers of arrest or detention. The military will be used to support the NHS primarily. They may be used as a support/backfill mechanism to help relieve some of the pressure on public services (see floods etc) but it will be support only.

 

[Lj82]

Your first claim is unsubstantiated. The live market was a hub in Wuhan, we actually don't know where it started, and we don't know patient zero. What we do know is that the very busy market of Wuhan(a massive city) was the first hotspot and that's it.

I recall reading somewhere that the first real case detected had no connections to the market. Can't rem where I read that though

 

[TMDaines]

So what changed between last Friday and this Friday that meant closing schools a week later than Ireland was the right thing to do? Come on now. It couldn’t be more obvious that the Uk went with what they thought was the best approach (based on whatever outcome they prioritised - presumably economic?) but had to back down when it became obvious they were a total outlier and the public were furious about their more laissez faire strategy.

The world feels like it has changed more in the last week than in the last 10 years. I’m really not sure how much of an exaggeration that is.

Not sure if I agree with you on the public reaction to schools. It wasn’t that cut and dry. I’ve had more colleagues lamenting schools closing this evening than ever calling for schools to close in the last week. A lot are hoping that the schools being open is not just for frontline NHS workers, but back-office ones too. I agree that there was certainly noise from some, but Laura Kuenssberg inadvertently summed up the farce when her first question back to Boris Johnson was for parents wanting to know when the schools would reopen.

 

[The Firestarter]

Infection rates, as much as anything, I'd hazard. It was always a matter of when not if.

Whether Whitty and Vallance were taken by surprise or not, I have no idea.

I think too much has been made of this apparently 'laissez-faire' approach. The initial inaction was presumed to be as such, but aside from one mention of 'herd immunity' it looks like we're following the same gameplan as everybody else. All the cards are still on the table. It's simply that we're waiting to play them later in the game for maximum effectiveness.

If waiting too long makes them ineffective, then the plan will have been a failure and we can start throwing around blame. But right now, the logic makes sense.

We can only take draconian measures a limited number of times, and for a limited amount of time each. We've not got to the point yet where playing our trump card will save the greatest number of lives.

You are not following the same game plan. You are just repeating the same mistakes. Businesses where people gather socially should have been closed weeks ago. That would have saved lives that are about to be lost in the upcoming weeks. Not allowing fecking concert in Cardiff.

 

[dwd]

This is going to be the biggest thread on the Caf isn’t it unfortunately

 

[Dante]

Not really. Italy is not doing much testing, and the testing distribution for age does not reflect the age distribution. Their fatality data is a severe overestimate, which is why it is so high.

Bear with me:

Assumption: No country is cheating by underreporting deaths. So, if someone dies from corona then it counts as death from the corona.

From this assumption, I would say that countries with the lowest fatality rate (and a high number of testings) are closest to the real fatality rate. This is simply logical if every death fro corona is reported as a death from corona, then under no circumstances, the official fatality rate can be higher than the real fatality rate.

Assumption 2: Every country misses some people who are infected (even Germany and South Korea).

This means that the official fatality rate is again an overestimate of the real fatality rate. Essentially, the 0.2% fatality rate in Germany is an overestimate. Same for South Korea's 0.7%. Or Bahrain's 0.3%.

Now, it is also not a coincidence that there is a negative correlation between the number of testings and the number of deaths. The more testing, the less deaths (Singapore, Korea, Germany, Bahrain). This strengthens my assumptions. Those countries are having fewer deaths simply cause they are finding more young people who do not show symptoms as positive for the virus. By simply testing more people.

I think that the logic is relatively sound, though there are some holes in it:

1) My assumptions do not count for age. But it is not a big problem, we already know that most of tested people are oldish (cause they get sick easily, and then do a test). Again, any fatality rate is overestimate. Also, not many kids are being tested. With kids surviving but not being counted as infected, again any official fatality rate is an overestimate.
2) My assumptions do not count for different strains of the virus (a possibility, but still we do not know much except there seems to be two different strains of it).
3) Some people who are sick will die, and so the fatality rate will increase. This is the only point that can increase the official mortality rate. But then, Germany has only 2 critical cases, and Bahrain has 3.
4) There are 2 viruses which are similar to each other, and analysis do not count for it. I think this is a very wild guess, with extremely low probability.

If I have to bet, I would say that the true fatality rate is somewhere between 0.1-0.5% assuming that the medical system is working and the assumption 1 is correct (assumption 2 is correct).

Again, this is hardly a scientific analysis, and for that much more data is needed. It is just me finding it hard to concentrate on my real work. But I think that the logic does not have many bugs.

You'll understand this better than me, but it looks like Italy has completed 165k tests. That's a hell of a lot, as far as I can tell (in global terms).

36k came out positive and 3k have sadly passed away.

What do you read into it?

http://www.salute.gov.it/imgs/C_17_pagineAree_5351_20_file.pdf

 

[Camy89]

This is going to be the biggest thread on the Caf isn’t it unfortunately

Nah. This'll fizzle out.

The Liverpool being denied a league title because of the plague thread? THAT will be the biggest one, that has significant longevity to it.

 

[hobbers]

On what criteria?

Didn't really think that through, what I meant was better than Southern Europe and certainly no worse off than the rest despite whatever differences in approach.

 

[Dante]

You are not following the same game plan. You are just repeating the same mistakes. Businesses where people gather socially should have been closed weeks ago. That would have saved lives that are about to be lost in the upcoming weeks. Not allowing fecking concert in Cardiff.

The Stereophonics gig was ridiculous, I agree. That shouldn't have been allowed to happen. The same goes for the St Paddy's Day Parade in Manchester.

I'm focusing more on the essential services that impact families, jobs, food supply and the economy. Those facilities need to be maintained in a state of normalcy for as long as possible, or else people are going to struggle even more than they're already likely to.

 

[MTF]

All the talk of military lockdown is misplaced I think.

We have just 135,000 police after tory cuts and at 95,000 active personnel, a smaller military than at any time since waterloo for the same reason.

Yes, they are armed, but there are two issues with that. First, asking your armed forces to fire on your own civilians is pretty much game over for a society. And if they ever did, it changes the rules forever. There are 65 million people, guns or not they are not winning that fight.

Johnson will, if he is sensible, avoid testing any of that at all costs.

I agree that using the military to police the population is an extreme measure, and that them firing on citizens would really put things on edge. But just remember that the military can still deploy domestically with limited weapons, they don't have to roll out like they would to go to war with Iran. When the National Guard first deployed to New Rochelle in New York state, they were unarmed and driving around in rented minivans. It can be used as additional "muscle" to be coordinated by the cops, and mainly aiming to keep things organized, and use non-lethal methods to stop and detain people if necessary.

 

[TMDaines]

You'll understand this better than me, but it looks like Italy has completed 165k tests. That's a hell of a lot, as far as I can tell (in global terms).

36k came out positive and 3k have sadly passed away.

What do you read into it?

http://www.salute.gov.it/imgs/C_17_pagineAree_5351_20_file.pdf

I’d be shocked if the Mezzogiorno doesn’t outbreak at some point. Sure, population density is a lot less, but a place like Matera in Basilicata draws a lot of tourism. Even 10% are testing positive from the few done.

Comparing the ratio between total cases and number of tests in Lombardy, Emilia-Romagna and Veneto is interesting. The Veneto looks more in control with a much bigger proportion of people testing negative, but Emilia-Romagna is only half the size of Lombardy but has done less testing proportionally and looks also in the deep shit. There‘s still so much room for the number to grow. Liguria too has a small population, but that one will rocket. That part of Italy from Turin to Milan to Genoa to all the towns across Emilia-Romagna and then Le Marche is so well connected, there was no stopping it.

 

[Don't Kill Bill]

This is going to be the biggest thread on the Caf isn’t it unfortunately

I have always been fascinated by world ending, or game changing events through history and in science. I became aware of this issue just after new year and started this thread when it struck me that this was potentially going to escalate out of control in a way predicted in the books I read on the subject and that almost all the boxes for a truly catastrophic event were in fact being ticked.

For all the platitudes being rolled out now there is still a potential chance this virus mutates quickly and becomes re-infectious and even more deadly. At that point this way of running the world is doomed.

I don't think that will be the outcome but frighteningly that chance is still in play.

I hope we catch a break and the thread sinks without a trace. My dad is in a nursing home 83 years old and very weak. It just closed for visitors due to a suspected Covid-19 case. My wife has health issues which put her on the vulnerable 12 week isolation ( which will extend to 6 or 12 months ).

Sorry.

 

[golden_blunder]

All the talk of military lockdown is misplaced I think.

We have just 135,000 police after tory cuts and at 95,000 active personnel, a smaller military than at any time since waterloo for the same reason.

Yes, they are armed, but there are two issues with that. First, asking your armed forces to fire on your own civilians is pretty much game over for a society. And if they ever did, it changes the rules forever. There are 65 million people, guns or not they are not winning that fight.

Johnson will, if he is sensible, avoid testing any of that at all costs.

The man wasted millions ffs trying to build a flowery bridge

 

[Rooney1987]

Got a call from Reed agency earlier asking if I was free to work for 6 weeks at the NHS in IT. Gonna take it, need the work and can try to help as much as I can. If there is any contractors in here struggling give Reed, Brook Street (they deal with NHS England) a call NHS is in need of staff at the moment.

I do wonder how NHS IT workers would work if the country goes in to lockdown? Do IT workers at the NHS count as critical/essential workers? .

 

[Red_toad]

All the talk of military lockdown is misplaced I think.

We have just 135,000 police after tory cuts and at 95,000 active personnel, a smaller military than at any time since waterloo for the same reason.

Yes, they are armed, but there are two issues with that. First, asking your armed forces to fire on your own civilians is pretty much game over for a society. And if they ever did, it changes the rules forever. There are 65 million people, guns or not they are not winning that fight.

Johnson will, if he is sensible, avoid testing any of that at all costs.

Are expecting all 65 million to fight back?

 

[dumbo]

Yeah, this is why the media spin shitting on the government for not immeadiatly employing a ”suppression” strategy, as if it is the clear and obvious path out of here, is so misguided. The report is clear that their modelling suggests this whole situation is worse than we previously imagined and we would have to keep up these intense “suppression” measures until a vaccine is found, which could realistically be 18 months, maybe allowing a month of relaxed measures every so often.

At least Bill Gates thinks the assumptions in the Imperial modelling were a bit too harsh and the latest data from China could see a more optimistic revision. Will people shit on the government if strategy than changes again accordingly?

Jesus feck, some of you lot.

 

[TMDaines]

Got a call from Reed agency earlier asking if I was free to work for 6 weeks at the NHS in IT. Gonna take it, need the work and can try to help as much as I can. If there is any contractors in here struggling give Reed, Brook Street (they deal with NHS England) a call NHS is in need of staff at the moment.

I do wonder how NHS IT workers would work if the country goes in to lockdown? Do IT workers at the NHS count as critical/essential workers? .

Unless you are working on the hardware, you'll likely be homeworking mainly I would have thought.

 

[TMDaines]

Jesus feck, some of you lot.

?

 

[Atze-Peng]

So what do you think is happening with Wuhan's figures? Wuhan I believe still has a mortality rate of about 3% - and that's despite them expanding the definition of a 'case' about halfway through to anyone who shows the symptoms and not requiring a test (they had a crazy 20k jump one day). Did they just stop registering new cases after a while?

I mean, do you really think China had below 100k cases? With the way they reacted to this entire thing? Yeah, no.
Not to mention there are reports that really let's you question their infection numbers and their deathtoll (like crematoriums running 24/7).

I also doubt our German numbers. We sorta have a track record on fitting numbers to our narrative in the past years.

 

[Rooney1987]

Unless you are working on the hardware, you'll likely be homeworking mainly I would have thought.

Funny enough the agency was a little vague but it's imaging laptops on mass to allow NHS staff to work from home.

 

[Skills]

I mean, do you really think China had below 100k cases? With the way they reacted to this entire thing? Yeah, no.
Not to mention there are reports that really let's you question their infection numbers and their deathtoll (like crematoriums running 24/7).

I also doubt our German numbers. We sorta have a track record on fitting numbers to our narrative in the past years.

So what is it then? Do you think the mortality rate more or less than they're reporting?

 

[Ian Reus]

While other countries are flying their citizens home for free.

This is extortion and the British embassy in Peru should hang their heads in shame for endorsing it.

That 1 way to London is 10 times the price as normal.

 

[Revan]

So what is it then? Do you think the mortality rate more or less than they're reporting?

It could be that they have new cases but don't admit it. The philosophy of the Chinese government is to a large degree based on Chinese supremacy (and the supremacy of their system) so it is in their interest to show how efficient they are at dealing with the problem while the rest of the world crashes and burns. I am being cynical here, but for them controlling the information is as important as controlling the problem.

Additionally, there might have been more reported cases at the beginning, that might have not been accounted for.

Finally, Hubei was hit hard at the beginning. It alone has around double of the cases of Italy, while having a smaller population. Italy's system was overwhelmed and their medical system is better than China's. Not beyond all means that at the beginning they were not able to offer the necessary help to many people who needed it.

 

[Arruda]

A growing concern around here is domestic violence. It's a plague in the best of times, but now, with everybody home and tensions high, some fear it will rise significantly.

 

[senorgregster]

A growing concern around here is domestic violence. It's a plague in the best of times, but now, with everybody home and tensions high, some fear it will rise significantly.

I just saw a tweet on that very topic in the US.

 

[Atze-Peng]

So what is it then? Do you think the mortality rate more or less than they're reporting?

I wouldn't know. I am just saying that the numbers from China are most likely downplayed A LOT. Which was also reported by a few reputable sources (It's late, I can look them up again tomorrow - same reports about Iran by the way). I don't know if their mortality rate is higher or lower, just that their total numbers for infections and deaths are definitely lower. Just Thus my point is to not put too much emphasis on Chinas numbers and their mortality rate.


To give an example: https://nypost.com/2020/02/08/chinas-culture-of-lies-has-helped-spread-the-coronavirus/
"One crematorium manager told a Hong Kong reporter that, in normal times, his 24 ovens were lit five days a week for four hours at a time. Now, he said, they have so many corpses to deal with that all the ovens are going around the clock. This suggests the body count must be in the thousands."

https://www.cremationresource.org/cremation/how-is-a-body-cremated.html
"On an average, it takes about one to three hours to cremate a human body"


So let's go with 2 hours per corpse as a middle ground and assuming only one corpse at a time (which I'm pretty sure isn't happening and China is rather pushing in the next corpse before the previous one has been fully cremated as they don't have our safety and ethical standards, but let's just be decent about it). This means in this one of 14 mentioned crematoriums with 24 chambers that they will be able to cremate 24x12 (=288) bodies a day. The report was from ~6 weeks ago. So 24x12x7x6 = 12096 bodies.
Now in the report they say they normally only work 5 days a week at 4 hours. So it's 24x2x5x6 = 1440 bodies. Those are the normal amount of death bodies they have to dispose in this one single crematorium. Thus 12096-1440 = 10656 cases from Corona/Corona-related issues (such as not enough medical staff to care for other diseases due to the overload of the hospitals capacities). From one single out of 14 mentioned crematoriums.

What's Chinas official current deathtoll? 3237! See here: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
Yeah, not buying it. Not even close. Don't need to be a conspiracy theorist to know something's fishy.

 

[justboy68]

This crisis really highlights the importance of having an emergency fund. It also highlights the terrible inequality that has resulted in many people not being in a position to save and being forced to living paycheck to paycheck. If anything good can come out of this, maybe we will move a step closer to trialling UBI on a larger scale and also establishing a realistic living wage.

I also hope it will instill a greater awareness in general about the importance of having money saved up for an emergency. Unfortunately, there are a significant portion out there living paycheck to paycheck who could have cut back on expenses a bit and saved for a rainy day. I Iearned from my uni days how reckless some people can be with there money. My heart goes out to all those anxious and struggling financially right now. I hope the government can provide enough support.

 

[ArmandTamzarian]

Tweet

— Twitter API (@user) date

What the feck? Why would you even publicly announce something like that. Philly about to initiate a Purge scenario

 

[Atze-Peng]

Tweet

— Twitter API (@user) date

What the feck? Why would you even publicly announce something like that. Philly about to initiate a Purge scenario

San Francisco is ahead of the curve and showing you the outcome (its called Prop 47, right?):

Tweet

— Twitter API (@user) date

 

[maniak]

A growing concern around here is domestic violence. It's a plague in the best of times, but now, with everybody home and tensions high, some fear it will rise significantly.

No doubt it will. Men who often drink till late at bars and taverns are now without their mates, with no footie, drinking at home. It's gonna be hell for some women out there.

 

[RedSky]

Didn't really think that through, what I meant was better than Southern Europe and certainly no worse off than the rest despite whatever differences in approach.

We're actually replicating Italys numbers, we're pretty much exactly where they were in terms of death escalation. The only difference is that Italy were the unfortunate European country to get hit badly first. Spain seem to be the worst hit though, their deaths are going up alarmingly fast.

​

UK Dates​	Total Deaths​	Italy Dates​	Total Deaths​
March 8th​	3​	Feb 23rd​	3​
March 9th​	5​	Feb 24th​	7​
March 10th​	6​	Feb 25th​	11​
March 11th​	8​	Feb 26th​	12​
March 12th​	10​	Feb 27th​	17​
March 13th​	11​	Feb 28th​	21​
March 14th​	21​	Feb 29th​	29​
March 15th​	35​	March 1st​	41​
March 16th​	55​	March 2nd​	52​
March 17th​	71​	March 3rd​	79​
March 18th​	104​	March 4th​	107​

 

[Paxi]

San Francisco is ahead of the curve and showing you the outcome (its called Prop 47, right?):

Tweet

— Twitter API (@user) date

Holy feck

 

[Dante]

San Francisco is ahead of the curve and showing you the outcome (its called Prop 47, right?):

Tweet

— Twitter API (@user) date

Feck me, that's grim.

 

[Wibble]

A free Coursera course on the subject including how to evaluate the available information. It might help people ease their stress a bit.

https://www.coursera.org/learn/covi...marketing&utm_campaign=tIo98GlqEeqd_xFKDENJkw