X-File 02 - Prophecies, Nostradamus to the Mayans and all that lies in between.

[x42bn6]

Anyway, I did discover some other things which I feel are more important.

~ Fábio hasn't made a Premiership appearance yet.
~ David N'Gog, of all people, has his birthday on the 1st of April.

 

[peterstorey]

Chill man I was only having a bit of a laugh by lampooning classic Libra traits (which of course have no basis in fact and even if they did would be attributable to the weather rather than the planetary effects).

 

[x42bn6]

Were these random players from all over the world?

They are all the football players who have played in the Premier League (and its equivalents, like the old Division One) on Wikipedia and categorised presumably correctly.

Everyone here: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Category:Premier_League_players

They must have made at least one Premier League appearance.

 

[Rood]

Chill man I was only having a bit of a laugh by lampooning classic Libra traits (which of course have no basis in fact and even if they did would be attributable to the weather rather than the planetary effects).

ah ok - went right over my head !

 

[x42bn6]

Anyway, here's all the data and stuff if anyone wants to mess around with it: http://rapidshare.com/files/203019654/Astrology.rar

I declare this as public domain, so go ahead and mess around with it if you wish.

 

[peterstorey]

I think x42 should be awarded a caf Wibble prize for services to rationality - enshrined in his soubriquet.

 

[MrMarcello]

This rooney fella would argue the existence of Santa, the Tooth Fairy and the Easter Bunny if given a chance.

 

[Rood]

A possible explanation is that once players are less likely to be picked to play, it affects both their motivation and development. This can explain how an advantage for certain kids is carried into adulthood.

Yeah on reflection that's absolutely right. Kids are 'chosen' at 14 or earlier when the older have a physical/mental advantage. There is clearly a trick to be learned if you can spot the signs of potential achievement in young kids over actual.

I've thought about this a bit and decided that I dont totally buy it.
The main reason being that kids grow at totally different rates so should the 6 months between a September and March birth really make that much of a difference?
Although I guess the mental advantage could still come into play and perhaps that extra bit of experience but do most kids start playing at the same age?

 

[peterstorey]

I've thought about this a bit and decided that I dont totally buy it.
The main reason being that kids grow at totally different rates so should the 6 months between a September and March birth really make that much of a difference?
Although I guess the mental advantage could still come into play and perhaps that extra bit of experience but do most kids start playing at the same age?

6 months makes a massive difference at 12-13. I think there are other studies in other sports that show the same effect when the registration date is changed,

 

[Chris H]

Not me I'd have assumed that the effect would decline into maturity.

I think it does decline over time, but it was so strong at an early age that it is still present in adulthood.

 

[peterstorey]

The die is cast early doors. If you haven't been scouted by 14 it's over for a pro career these days.

 

[MikeUpNorth]

We surely can't assume that there are equal amount of births each month. Do we not need to compare the percentage of players born in each month to the percentage of total births in each month?

For example, more people may be born in the summer and this could bias the figures...

 

[peterstorey]

Yeah it's a broad brush effort (hats off to x42) you should use the astrological bands and eliminate the cusps too. Other factors like multiple hemispheres/countries born in, make the sample more diverse than ideal. i'm pretty sure that some astrologers would argue that people are born 'when they need to be' so spirits that want to be Messi get themselves born in Virgo/Libra (Lionel failed in this).

 

[MikeUpNorth]

It does seem August/September are the months with the most births. (http://abcnews.go.com/Health/Science/story?id=945911&page=1&CMP=OTC-RSSFeeds0312 relates to the USA but will probably be similar for Britain).

If we could get some good figures for average number of births per month, then we can offset our football figures to eliminate this factor.

 

[x42bn6]

The season thing is an interesting thought - might see if I can pull figures off other leagues such as the Scandinavian ones (which start at different times) or even the South American ones (which start in January or something).

 

[DoctorEvil]

I've thought about this a bit and decided that I dont totally buy it.
The main reason being that kids grow at totally different rates so should the 6 months between a September and March birth really make that much of a difference?
Although I guess the mental advantage could still come into play and perhaps that extra bit of experience but do most kids start playing at the same age?

It does not have to be true for any kid, just to be true on average. I would expect fast growth to be evenly distributed to its effect would average out.

 

[peterstorey]

The season thing is an interesting thought - might see if I can pull figures off other leagues such as the Scandinavian ones (which start at different times) or even the South American ones (which start in January or something).

Yeah I think I saw some numbers for a Japanese baseball season for which the qualification period started in April which had the most players skewed towards April & May. Of course I can't find it now.

 

[Chris H]

Birth Month and Sporting Success in Japan, Japan's unintended game for the ages

We found that the frequency of the birth months of Japanese professional soccer players show exactly the opposite pattern to that of Europeans, which has the peak about half an year behind. That is, Japanese players are significantly more likely to have been born from April to September than from November to March. We also found the same pattern for Japanese professional baseball players.

These facts probably stem from the different school year system in Japan, in which children born from April to March consist of one academic grade and this is the base group of various competitions among students.

Over a third of Japanese-born players on NPB rosters are born on one of the 90 dates starting on April 2, while roughly an eighth are born in the quarter year from Jan. 1 to April 1. The 32 dates from March 1 to April 1 are by far the worst for aspiring ballplayers.

 

[MikeUpNorth]

Nice find Chris and, if true, would suggest that sports scouts really need to develop a method that takes account of the relative ages of young athletes and their peers.

 

[Wibble]

I've thought about this a bit and decided that I dont totally buy it.
The main reason being that kids grow at totally different rates so should the 6 months between a September and March birth really make that much of a difference?
Although I guess the mental advantage could still come into play and perhaps that extra bit of experience but do most kids start playing at the same age?

It makes a huge difference. I help run a club of 1300 mainly youth players. If you look at each agae group the majority of the kids in first grade are born in the later months of the year and in lower teams the birthdays are far more randomly distributed.