Gaming Xbox Series X|S

[Fully Fledged]

But that will always limit their hardware sales.

Why buy a Series X when you can play the games on better hardware? At least Sony have the forethought to give it a year or so before porting first party titles to PC.

It will but I don't think they care. They sell the hardware for a loss so that people play games on their service. Whether we play on Xbox, PC or Cloud I don't think they mind.

 

[Vidyoyo]

The problem as I see it is that gaming has become another form of ephemeral media, like music and hollywood movies. Very few developers are making games aiming for them to be replayed many years into the future. Owning them therefore has no tangible reward. Especially because they also hold no monetary value (my PS4 collection is testament to that.).

The big difference I think is Nintendo as their games are often timeless and hold their value well. It's why I'm happy to 'rent' games on the Xbox but still buy physical copies for the Switch.

 

[Fully Fledged]

The problem as I see it is that gaming has become another form of ephemeral media, like music and hollywood movies. Very few developers are making games and aiming for them to be replayed many years into the future. Owning them therefore has no tangible reward. Especially because they also hold no monetary value (my PS4 collection is testament to that.).

The big difference is Nintendo as their games are often timeless and hold their value well. It's why I'm happy to 'rent' games on the Xbox but still buy physical copies for the Switch.

Hope you haven't got PSVR games.

 

[Massive Spanner]

But that will always limit their hardware sales.

Why buy a Series X when you can play the games on better hardware? At least Sony have the forethought to give it a year or so before porting first party titles to PC.

Microsoft don’t care where you buy their games as long as you’re subscribed to Gamepass. That’s their only goal. That’s why they gave the series S as a cheap option. They’d put Gamepass on the ps5 tomorrow if Sony let them.

 

[Vidyoyo]

Psychonauts 2 is ridiculously good. Not seen it mentioned much here (came out awhile ago now tbf) but it's fecking great. It's got a proper old school feel to it, it captures the magic of what gaming used to be like but also feels modern and different. One of my favourite releases in years.

Oh yeah it's great. Definitely the best exclusive game I've played on Xbox so far

 

[caid]

It wasn't aimed at you. I just meant in general. I wouldn't consider anybody in here as casual.

I've no doubt you'll uncover a gem from time to time, but that could happen on Humble Choice, and then you own the game as well.

To be fair the games available on humble are rarely of the same quality as the stuff on gamepass. Theres a different logic with pc that doesn't apply to consoles in general. I have a bunch of ps3 games that i no longer have access to really. All owning them gives me is a box of plastic crap to store. A lot of games just suit that demo / rental / trial access anyway. Lower budget, double a games that are a bit weird or obscure and a bit rough around the edges. Stuff that you wouldn't normally try but give a go on a whim. Stuff that you play through once and find enjoyable enough but wouldn't bother playing again.

 

[Vidyoyo]

Hope you haven't got PSVR games.

Only Fruit Ninja VR. A timeless classic!

 

[b82REZ]

Microsoft don’t care where you buy their games as long as you’re subscribed to Gamepass. That’s their only goal. That’s why they gave the series S as a cheap option. They’d put Gamepass on the ps5 tomorrow if Sony let them.

They are definitely more concerned with GP subscriptions and I'd imagine the Series X will be their last foray into hardware.

 

[largelyworried]

They are definitely more concerned with GP subscriptions and I'd imagine the Series X will be their last foray into hardware.

I've heard this said before but I don't really see that they could do this. Where will their install base be for Gamepass? Sure there's PCs and tablets, but the gaming device plugged into a TV in your front room is such a huge market I can't imagine they'd leave it to Sony & Nintendo, and I don't see a third party competitor on the horizon that would ship with Gamepass either.

 

[Ainu]

I've heard this said before but I don't really see that they could do this. Where will their install base be for Gamepass? Sure there's PCs and tablets, but the gaming device plugged into a TV in your front room is such a huge market I can't imagine they'd leave it to Sony & Nintendo, and I don't see a third party competitor on the horizon that would ship with Gamepass either.

The cloud? I personally think the generation after this one is still too early to go all in on cloud, but it's definitely on their minds.

 

[Sarni]

I've heard this said before but I don't really see that they could do this. Where will their install base be for Gamepass? Sure there's PCs and tablets, but the gaming device plugged into a TV in your front room is such a huge market I can't imagine they'd leave it to Sony & Nintendo, and I don't see a third party competitor on the horizon that would ship with Gamepass either.

+ it's also incredibly easy to release a console these days, they are basically mid-range PCs boxed nicely and with a couple of extra features added on (or not). I imagine there's going to be demand for them for a long time.

I think Series X may be my favorite console I've ever owned in terms of the overall experience and one of the best purchases of the last 5-10 years. By the time this generation ends it will also be by far the most used console I've ever had.

 

[Sarni]

The cloud? I personally think the generation after this one is still too early to go all in on cloud, but it's definitely on their minds.

Cloud will get better but if you can release a box that is not expensive to make, and that there will be lots of demand for (personally I don't foresee myself preferring Cloud to console for a while), why would you give that up?

 

[Massive Spanner]

The cloud? I personally think the generation after this one is still too early to go all in on cloud, but it's definitely on their minds.

It's definitely their end game, they've even made an app for Smart TV's now, but I think there will be at least one more generation before they go all in. Given the popularity of both consoles and that streaming is still considered fairly niche and "second best", they won't switch completely any time soon.

 

[Massive Spanner]

Cloud will get better but if you can release a box that is not expensive to make, and that there will be lots of demand for (personally I don't foresee myself preferring Cloud to console for a while), why would you give that up?

They lose money on every console they sell, at least for the first few years.

Going cloud + subscriptions + digital only purchases would be far more profitable for them than having to release consoles that people can buy physical discs for. They will do it as soon as they can, but probably not any time soon.

 

[Damien]

I was playing the first A Plague Tale in advance of the new one coming out and really enjoying it.

About half way through, and then it got fecking removed from gamepass? What the hell is that all about when the 2nd game is coming to Gamepass in a month? idiotic stuff.

Think that's the one shitty thing about GP for me, you don't own anything on it and stuff you want to play (apart from MS studios titles, of which, let's face it, there's feck all recently) can disappear at any time.

It's a shame they're kneecapping Games with Gold. I think there's room for both, like the different PS+ tiers. Access to loads of games to 'rent', but also get a few newer games each month to add to your account that you know will still be there in years time so don't necessarily have to rush to complete them.

Funnily enough, A Plague Tale was one of the games on PS+ in July last year.

 

[Sarni]

They lose money on every console they sell, at least for the first few years.

Going cloud + subscriptions + digital only purchases would be far more profitable for them than having to release consoles that people can buy physical discs for. They will do it as soon as they can, but probably not any time soon.

I don't think physical discs are going to be a thing for too long. They've already attempted scrapping them in this generation as you can buy PS5 without drive and Series S does not have it at all, I would expect that next gen will be even more online heavy if not online only. Unfortunately this will kill small retailers but it is what it is.

I think the direction Microsoft has taken with Series X/S will be the one to keep for the next couple of generations, i.e. have a less powerful, cheaper console as entry level and a more powerful one priced higher for people who want more premium experience. I reckon they will also make the difference in price even more significant, like having them at 300 EUR and 800-1000 EUR as opposed to 300/500 or whatever it currently is.

The next generations will be getting more and more cloud heavy but I think consoles will still be there, similar how you can still buy Apple TV/Google sticks even though pretty much everyone has apps on their TVs by now.

 

[Damien]

I think the direction Microsoft has taken with Series X/S will be the one to keep for the next couple of generations, i.e. have a less powerful, cheaper console as entry level and a more powerful one priced higher for people who want more premium experience. I reckon they will also make the difference in price even more significant, like having them at 300 EUR and 800-1000 EUR as opposed to 300/500 or whatever it currently is.

No way. Would pretty much be suicide even with the cheaper option.

 

[Massive Spanner]

I don't think physical discs are going to be a thing for too long. They've already attempted scrapping them in this generation as you can buy PS5 without drive and Series S does not have it at all, I would expect that next gen will be even more online heavy if not online only. Unfortunately this will kill small retailers but it is what it is.

I think the direction Microsoft has taken with Series X/S will be the one to keep for the next couple of generations, i.e. have a less powerful, cheaper console as entry level and a more powerful one priced higher for people who want more premium experience. I reckon they will also make the difference in price even more significant, like having them at 300 EUR and 800-1000 EUR as opposed to 300/500 or whatever it currently is.

The next generations will be getting more and more cloud heavy but I think consoles will still be there, similar how you can still buy Apple TV/Google sticks even though pretty much everyone has apps on their TVs by now.

Ha, absolutely no chance would a home console be that much. Sony had the ps3 above 500 and it was suicide for them. MS priced the One well above above the PS4 and (amongst other things) it was suicide for them too.

 

[Coxy]

I was playing the first A Plague Tale in advance of the new one coming out and really enjoying it.

About half way through, and then it got fecking removed from gamepass? What the hell is that all about when the 2nd game is coming to Gamepass in a month? idiotic stuff.

Think that's the one shitty thing about GP for me, you don't own anything on it and stuff you want to play (apart from MS studios titles, of which, let's face it, there's feck all recently) can disappear at any time.

Not fussed about that. I agree the quality has been poor lately from MS studios - but there is finally hope on the horizon. The Bethesda stuff, and hopefully Blizzard in the future will make up for MS Studios being so poor. And that stuff will never leave GP.

I've been fine subbing to GP - not bought a game for a long time on Xbox (still buy on my Switch / PC of course...)

 

[Sarni]

Ha, absolutely no chance would a home console be that much. Sony had the ps3 above 500 and it was suicide for them. MS priced the One well above above the PS4 and (amongst other things) it was suicide for them too.

But PS3/Xbox One was your only option to get that generation. They'd keep two here. You only go for premium if you absolutely feel like it, like you can buy a very expensive iPhone Pro Max super duper S edition but you can get a perfectly good basic iPhone for 60% of the price or whatever.

 

[Sarni]

Psychonauts 2 is ridiculously good. Not seen it mentioned much here (came out awhile ago now tbf) but it's fecking great. It's got a proper old school feel to it, it captures the magic of what gaming used to be like but also feels modern and different. One of my favourite releases in years.

It is fantastic. I am halfway through it and having a blast. It is really clever in its design.

I did have Xbox One but barely used it and when I did it was usually for Forza, so I am doing a lot of catching up on Microsoft titles in this generation (Xbox 360 was the last one I used really heavily). Also did Gears 4 recently, fantastic game as well.

I got Deathloop yesterday too, having fun so far though I fear it may start getting proper confusing soon. Hopefully not. I like the design of the world a lot so can see myself spending a ton of time in it. I have so much Bethesda catching up to do that I probably won't buy any games for the next 2 years or so. And there are two Assassins Creed games which feel quite good and are both north of 30 hours...

 

[b82REZ]

I've heard this said before but I don't really see that they could do this. Where will their install base be for Gamepass? Sure there's PCs and tablets, but the gaming device plugged into a TV in your front room is such a huge market I can't imagine they'd leave it to Sony & Nintendo, and I don't see a third party competitor on the horizon that would ship with Gamepass either.

They've already announced a Smart TV app.

 

[largelyworried]

The cloud? I personally think the generation after this one is still too early to go all in on cloud, but it's definitely on their minds.

They've already announced a Smart TV app.

I agree they will push the cloud streaming pretty hard from now on and that'll be the end point, but I think it'll be more than a generation until ultrafast broadband, and more importantly, fast home networking, is so ubiquitous that they'll be able to ditch hardware altogether. Even if 75% of users have the infrastructure to support it, you can't just tell 25% of your Xbox install base to do one. They need 99% of users to be ready, especially since those users will just switch straight to a rival.

 

[Massive Spanner]

But PS3/Xbox One was your only option to get that generation. They'd keep two here. You only go for premium if you absolutely feel like it, like you can buy a very expensive iPhone Pro Max super duper S edition but you can get a perfectly good basic iPhone for 60% of the price or whatever.

You can't compare consoles to smartphones, the market is completely different. MS won't release a €1000 console if they also have one for €300 because 99% of people would either buy the €300 one or be pissed off that they have to pay such a ridiculous uptick for the better one.

Not sure where you're getting 60% from, an iPhone Pro is only about 15-20% more expensive than a regular iPhone so isn't nearly as much of a jump for those who want the best possible phone, and it still sells way less.

 

[Sarni]

You can't compare consoles to smartphones, the market is completely different. MS won't release a €1000 console if they also have one for €300 because 99% of people would either buy the €300 one or be pissed off that they have to pay such a ridiculous uptick for the better one.

Not sure where you're getting 60% from, an iPhone Pro is only about 15-20% more expensive than a regular iPhone so isn't nearly as much of a jump for those who want the best possible phone, and it still sells way less.

I did not realize 14 was that expensive already. However still, in Poland you pay 7199 PLN for Pro Max and 5199 for iPhone 14, so that's 40% there.

I probably exaggerated with 1000 EUR but I'm fairly convinced the gap will be much bigger than it is now and also that the bottom tier console will sell much better.

 

[Conor]

To be fair I don't like to spend my gaming time looking at what's leaving and to be fair I didn't expect a game with a sequel released on GP in a few weeks to go off GP because that's cnutish, to be fair.

Maybe pay attention next time mate.

 

[Sarni]

Plague Tale is a short game anyway, think I finished it in 9 hours over two days. Not particularly challenging either aside from one moment towards the end which is among the most frustrating sequences in gaming I've ever seen.

 

[b82REZ]

I agree they will push the cloud streaming pretty hard from now on and that'll be the end point, but I think it'll be more than a generation until ultrafast broadband, and more importantly, fast home networking, is so ubiquitous that they'll be able to ditch hardware altogether. Even if 75% of users have the infrastructure to support it, you can't just tell 25% of your Xbox install base to do one. They need 99% of users to be ready, especially since those users will just switch straight to a rival.

I think MS business model is relying on streaming and the cloud.

Consoles generally sell at a loss. Sony offset that loss with the software, MS business model is pushing GP, which they are also making a loss on.

The more devices that become GP compatible the less incentive MS have to make expensive hardware they have to sell at a loss.

Eventually I think all the big publishers will move away from hardware. I personally think MS will be the first to that. They were at the forefront of gaming DRM which was met with huge backlash. GP is their palatable way of enforcing that.

They had to release the X because the infrastructure isn't there just yet for seamless cloud gaming, and there was no way they were going to allow Sony to gobble up more of the market share with the PS5. IMO they saw the X/S as a necessary evil to keep them competitive in the console market while they improve on their long term goal of streaming.

 

[largelyworried]

I think MS business model is relying on streaming and the cloud.

Consoles generally sell at a loss. Sony offset that loss with the software, MS business model is pushing GP, which they are also making a loss on.

The more devices that become GP compatible the less incentive MS have to make expensive hardware they have to sell at a loss.

Eventually I think all the big publishers will move away from hardware. I personally think MS will be the first to that. They were at the forefront of gaming DRM which was met with huge backlash. GP is their palatable way of enforcing that.

They had to release the X because the infrastructure isn't there just yet for seamless cloud gaming, and there was no way they were going to allow Sony to gobble up more of the market share with the PS5. IMO they saw the X/S as a necessary evil to keep them competitive in the console market while they improve on their long term goal of streaming.

Yeah I agree in terms of the approximate direction of travel, its just a matter of timing. Bear in mind that Microsoft will need to ramp up pre-production on their next machine in the next year or two. No doubt they have a bunch of weird and wonderful prototypes somewhere, but at some point they have to start nailing down deals with suppliers to make sure they will be able to actually build and deliver these machines. They can't wait five years til the PS6 arrives, they'll need to make a decision long before then. I doubt that we'll see enough uptake on networking to make not bothering with a new console at all a safe proposition.

 

[Fully Fledged]

I agree they will push the cloud streaming pretty hard from now on and that'll be the end point, but I think it'll be more than a generation until ultrafast broadband, and more importantly, fast home networking, is so ubiquitous that they'll be able to ditch hardware altogether. Even if 75% of users have the infrastructure to support it, you can't just tell 25% of your Xbox install base to do one. They need 99% of users to be ready, especially since those users will just switch straight to a rival.

I don't think they plan on getting rid of the console any time soon. It's more that the cloud can grow their userbase and give their current userbase a way to play on the go. I also don't think that cloud can come close to giving their customers a console like experience in the short term let alone a PC experience. It's all about the long game for cloud and bringing in the gamers that would never buy a Xbox.

 

[b82REZ]

Yeah I agree in terms of the approximate direction of travel, its just a matter of timing. Bear in mind that Microsoft will need to ramp up pre-production on their next machine in the next year or two. No doubt they have a bunch of weird and wonderful prototypes somewhere, but at some point they have to start nailing down deals with suppliers to make sure they will be able to actually build and deliver these machines. They can't wait five years til the PS6 arrives, they'll need to make a decision long before then. I doubt that we'll see enough uptake on networking to make not bothering with a new console at all a safe proposition.

I don't think they're even considering a new console anytime soon, same with Sony. You have to bare in mind that these consoles released during COVID and while they may be approaching two years old, in reality it's more like the first proper year.

Between chip shortages and games being delayed due to WFH I don't think anyone has come close to utilising the full strength of either console. I expect these two will be around for a year or two longer than you'd normally expect.

You just need to look at how many non-Xbox related devices have GP compatibility and how much mobile gaming is eating into the console space. The biggest jewel in Activision acquisition is King and the access to millions and millions of Candy Crush players. Their numbers, and probably their wallets dwarf anything either publisher currently have.

The early stages of this switch to handheld, mobile gaming is already prevalent in SE Asia and Japan in particular; a market that used to be guaranteed numbers, for Sony at least. These consumers are simply not buying home consoles en mass anymore. It's only a matter of time until that becomes more normalised in the West and I do think MS will be at the forefront of that transition.

 

[hasanejaz88]

I'm planning on buying a Xbox Series X and have some questions regarding GamePass as that's one of the reasons I would go for it:

- What are the monthly costs for GamePass? The place I'm buying from is offering 32 Euros a month for 24 months. Are usual costs higher than 32 if I buy elsewhere and also is GamePass free after 24 months or I have to renew?

- If you have GamePass, does this mean you can play older titles for free or would you still have to buy the games albiet at a lower cost.

- I presume I can cancel GamePass anytime I like and it's not a long term commitment?

 

[Abraxas]

I'm planning on buying a Xbox Series X and have some questions regarding GamePass as that's one of the reasons I would go for it:

- What are the monthly costs for GamePass? The place I'm buying from is offering 32 Euros a month for 24 months. Are usual costs higher than 32 if I buy elsewhere and also is GamePass free after 24 months or I have to renew?

- If you have GamePass, does this mean you can play older titles for free or would you still have to buy the games albiet at a lower cost.

- I presume I can cancel GamePass anytime I like and it's not a long term commitment?

GamePass is an ongoing subscription, you have to keep buying it when your term runs out. You can cancel whenever you want, the subscription simply ends at the end of what you've paid for.

The cheapest ways to get it are usually buying it off CD key selling "grey" sites. This is because they sell subscriptions from jurisdictions where it is cheaper, Turkey, Argentina etc. These can then be redeemed in the MS store using a VPN. There are also methods of buying Gold memberships which are way cheaper, then paying a one off fee to convert them into GamePass ultimate. The most expensive way is directly through Microsoft of course.

I presume the 32 euros a month includes the console. I don't know how many euros a console costs but at a total of 768 I wouldn't say you're getting any kind of great deal on the GamePass.

 

[hasanejaz88]

GamePass is an ongoing subscription, you have to keep buying it when your term runs out. You can cancel whenever you want, the subscription simply ends at the end of what you've paid for.

The cheapest ways to get it are usually buying it off CD key selling "grey" sites. This is because they sell subscriptions from jurisdictions where it is cheaper, Turkey, Argentina etc. These can then be redeemed in the MS store using a VPN. There are also methods of buying Gold memberships which are way cheaper, then paying a one off fee to convert them into GamePass ultimate. The most expensive way is directly through Microsoft of course.

I presume the 32 euros a month includes the console. I don't know how many euros a console costs but at a total of 768 I wouldn't say you're getting any kind of great deal on the GamePass.

Yep it comes with the console. If I can play games for free it isn't a good deal? That's something I can't fully understand right now, whether most games are free or I still have to buy them.

 

[Abraxas]

Yep it comes with the console. If I can play games for free it isn't a good deal? That's something I can't fully understand right now, whether most games are free or I still have to buy them.

They're not actually free, you're paying the subscription. You probably wouldn't think it's free to watch shows on Netflix. It's the same thing, as soon as you your subscription period ends your access to the games is gone, so it's not ownership of the games, more like a mass rental. Also, they can take particular titles off it, usually giving you some notice.

There is a selection of games available on GamePass. Around 100 or so I think. They're of varying quality. Some newer stuff, some old Xbox games, some tripe. So yes if there is enough on there that you're interested in it's an affordable way to play a selection of games. But anything that's not on there you still have to buy.

 

[Ainu]

I'm planning on buying a Xbox Series X and have some questions regarding GamePass as that's one of the reasons I would go for it:

- What are the monthly costs for GamePass? The place I'm buying from is offering 32 Euros a month for 24 months. Are usual costs higher than 32 if I buy elsewhere and also is GamePass free after 24 months or I have to renew?

- If you have GamePass, does this mean you can play older titles for free or would you still have to buy the games albiet at a lower cost.

- I presume I can cancel GamePass anytime I like and it's not a long term commitment?

What offer is that exactly? The Series X is €500 so for 32/month at 24 months, you're effectively paying +- €11.2/month for your Game Pass subscription. Regular Xbox Game Pass is 9.99/month so that has to be GP Ultimate, which only makes sense if you're also going to use it on PC. Otherwise, that package deal is costing you more than the nominal prices of the console and regular sub purchased separately, and that's without even considering that you can get all sorts of deals on GP subs.

I would reconsider this, it doesn't look like great value at a glance. Unless we're missing something and it includes additional accessories like another controller etc.

 

[Damien]

@hasanejaz88 you can see the list of games here to see how many suit you. The games on that list, you have access to either until your subscription ends or they get removed from the service (roughly the same number get added each month that leave each month). There is a leaving soon section on the site but you have to pay attention to it or you could get a nasty surprise like @Massive Spanner did.

The catch tends to be that although the games are 'free', the DLC generally isn't so the studios get the Game Pass moolah from Microsoft as well as money for DLC/microtransactions on the games they add to the service. Maybe there's an exception for first party games like on PS+ but I don't know.

 

[Abraxas]

They've taken pretty much all the Final Fantasy games off as well which was a real kick in the teeth, I thought.

 

[Traub]

What offer is that exactly? The Series X is €500 so for 32/month at 24 months, you're effectively paying +- €11.2/month for your Game Pass subscription. Regular Xbox Game Pass is 9.99/month so that has to be GP Ultimate, which only makes sense if you're also going to use it on PC. Otherwise, that package deal is costing you more than the nominal prices of the console and regular sub purchased separately, and that's without even considering that you can get all sorts of deals on GP subs.

I would reconsider this, it doesn't look like great value at a glance. Unless we're missing something and it includes additional accessories like another controller etc.

The main advantage is you get to pay off the console i.e., he may not have 500 euros up front to spend.

If he does have the cash available to buy the console outright, I would recommend doing the Gold trick.

 

[largelyworried]

I don't think they're even considering a new console anytime soon, same with Sony. You have to bare in mind that these consoles released during COVID and while they may be approaching two years old, in reality it's more like the first proper year.

Between chip shortages and games being delayed due to WFH I don't think anyone has come close to utilising the full strength of either console. I expect these two will be around for a year or two longer than you'd normally expect.

You just need to look at how many non-Xbox related devices have GP compatibility and how much mobile gaming is eating into the console space. The biggest jewel in Activision acquisition is King and the access to millions and millions of Candy Crush players. Their numbers, and probably their wallets dwarf anything either publisher currently have.

The early stages of this switch to handheld, mobile gaming is already prevalent in SE Asia and Japan in particular; a market that used to be guaranteed numbers, for Sony at least. These consumers are simply not buying home consoles en mass anymore. It's only a matter of time until that becomes more normalised in the West and I do think MS will be at the forefront of that transition.

The last generation was deceptive because we actually got new hardware half way through, it was sort of two mini generations lasting 3 or 4 years each. So I guess it'll depend on whether they do that again. If they do, it still represents a commitment to hardware for a longer period. If they don't I'd be amazed if they last longer than 7 years, but who really knows. Either way, unless they don't release another machine for a full 15 years (or more importantly, unless Sony don't), it doesn't really affect the main point. Microsoft will have to make a decision before the next gen of networking is ubiquitous.

In terms of handhelds, I don't see it makes any difference to the case in point. Its still the case that the next gen of hardware will probably arrive before the infrastructure is good enough to support near-flawless streaming. If anything I'd say we're even further away with handheld, since mobile internet on the go is very unreliable outside of the major cities, especially while moving. So irrespective of the direction of travel, Microsoft will still probably need to make another machine.

As for whether handhelds will replace set top boxes, it's hard to say really, but it's interesting to wonder about. I don't think mobile gaming will, but that's a totally different beast anyway, where Apple and Google are the dominant forces. But for handhelds gaming, sure, maybe. If it does, I wouldn't particularly say MS are best placed. Three of the top five best selling consoles of all time are Nintendo handhelds, you'd have to say their experience would put them in pole position to benefit.

I think the obvious question mark here for Microsoft is the dominant form factor of handheld devices. Will non-gaming devices of the future be the right size and shape to support handheld gaming to compare with dedicated handhelds? Sounds simple but right now the answer is a resounding no. Most phones are touchscreen only, most tablets are unwieldy and third party attachments mostly look goofy, have a tiny install base and little quality control. As an experience, the difference between an iPhone clipped onto an old Xbox controller via a connector off Amazon and a Nintendo Switch, with its many bells and whistles, is pretty large (ignoring one's preference for the actual games). Microsoft need the gaming experience to be as good as what their competitors offer, if their competitors are doing dedicated handhelds. They could easily end up in a weird space where their offering is more faff than simple mobile gaming, but falls well short of the quality experience of dedicated hardware. So they need things to change before they can succeed, but without making their own hardware, they have no control over that change. So definitely a tricky path to navigate, if that really is their direction of travel.