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Do you think there will be a Deal or No Deal?


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Sweet Square

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Surely Putin can be regarded as important alongside those factors though? Putin may not have invented UKIP, but Russian online trolls in recent years will have been helpful to UKIP's general message. And it certainly wouldn't be shocking if there's been plenty of dirty money funneled to political groups like UKIP from Russia over the years.
Firstly where's the evidence for Russia playing a role ? We've seen the tabloid racism for decades, we've know for years the EU debate is actually more about in fighting in the Tory party, it's been known for a long time that there's been a far right racist anti EU voters build up in the UK(The BNP got nearly million votes in 2009)these things are actually visible and concrete. At the moment we don't even have evidence for what(If any) role Russia played in the referendum, is it possible of course it but at the same time it's just as possible to say that shitty right youtubers had effect on the outcome. And secondly if Russia has such a powerful grip over the UK then why in the last election did a vocally anti Putin Conservative Party and a Left Wing Labour Party both get 40% ?
Brexit (as a specific example) was an incredibly close vote. You don't need to be influencing even 10-15% of the electorate to be swinging the vote. Often it only takes a small portion of the electorate for that to be the case, especially if you're targeting certain areas.
There was over a million votes in the difference.

The Putin/Russia blaming is some of the most lazy political analysis around and simply gives a pass to the actual political events that have caused the situation we are in today.

We're very easily manipulated and it happens on all sides. It just so happens that Russia's side won in 2016 because everything since has played perfectly into their hands and their plans. None of this is innocent, it's all a game and we're pawns because we've got no real power. Our only power is voting and that gets hijacked by people with much more to gain or lose doing everything they can to direct our minds to do what they want.
 

matherto

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Firstly where's the evidence for Russia playing a role ?
We know troll farms exist, we know they have a specific modus operandi.

We know Russian money is everywhere in London.

We know people like Arron Banks who was a massive financial backer of anti-EU campaigns are heavily involved with Russian interests, as noted in the James O"Brian tweet above.

We've seen the tabloid racism for decades
Of course, but what circles do the people who own the tabloids run in and what are their objectives? I'd wager many of the big newspaper and other media owners have links to Russia. I'd also wager that they're an issue separate to Russia and another part of the pie.

we've know for years the EU debate is actually more about in fighting in the Tory party
On a purely political, Westminster focused spectrum yes. However ask the people who voted for Brexit and those who voted against if they know anything at all about Tory infighting and how it links to whether we should be in the EU or not.

it's been known for a long time that there's been a far right racist anti EU voters build up in the UK(The BNP got nearly million votes in 2009)these things are actually visible and concrete.
Of course there are racists, a massive amount. Where did they get those thoughts to begin with though? Who's directing them (and who are they in bed with?). You aren't born racist so how do you become racist? How do massive groups form? Analyse that and you have a perfect tool to utilise for your own ends. We know Farage is up to his neck in shady dealings and there are huge suspicions that Johnson is another. If we did have a proper inquiry into the major players and what they had to gain/lose from the referendum what would we find?

At the moment we don't even have evidence for what(If any) role Russia played in the referendum, is it possible of course it but at the same time it's just as possible to say that shitty right youtubers had effect on the outcome.
We don't have an inquiry like the Mueller investigation but just by judging that investigation we know that Russian troll forms exist and why do they exist? To spread the messages to sow discord and disrupt the West.

The BBC did a brief article on it here about how they function
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-43093390

We know that Putin wants to break up the EU and have us fighting amongst ourselves because he's spelt it out for years and many people vastly more knowledgeable than you or I have written books and articles about him and his game plan for the West. Is it a stretch to imagine he instructed a mass attack on the UK population using modern media to whip up the fury that got us to vote for Brexit? Is it feck. We just don't have the political will or public will in this country to care about whether they did or not, it's one thing I'm jealous of the Americans for because they're actually trying to tackle it even if it's a losing battle.

And secondly if Russia has such a powerful grip over the UK then why in the last election did a vocally anti Putin Conservative Party and a Left Wing Labour Party both get 40% ?
Because in the grand scheme of things a local general election is tiny compared to a referendum on our status in the world and the reasons behind why we vote the way we vote in those elections are completely separate to anything to do with Russia. Vast swathes of the country will always vote Tory, vast swathes will always vote Labour, vast swathes won't bother voting at all and none of that is to do with Russia. However, Russia might have a view on whether they wanted May or Corbyn and again their wonderful little troll farms could've worked their magic. You're right in being sceptical and questioning it but there's ample evidence out there of what Russia does and pointing to it without being lazy as you say here:

The Putin/Russia blaming is some of the most lazy political analysis around and simply gives a pass to the actual political events that have caused the situation we are in today.
and simply painting Putin as the boogeyman.


There was over a million votes in the difference.
52-48 isn't a lot and could easily be swung the other way.

You gest, but Dr. Strangelove is a brilliant film and exceptionally relevant to modern times.
 

Sweet Square

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Of course, but what circles do the people who own the tabloids run in and what are their objectives? I'd wager many of the big newspaper and other media owners have links to Russia. I'd also wager that they're an issue separate to Russia and another part of the pie.
The biggest newspaper to support Leave were - The Sun and The Daily Mail. The Sun is owned by Rupert Murdoch who is a Australian right wing media mogul who main goal isn't to work for Putin but to make himself richer, The Daily Mail is owned by Daily Mail and General Trust plc(A media group)and chaired by Jonathan Harmsworth, 4th Viscount Rothermere(Yes that's his real name)they also have no links to Putin.

Of course there are racists, a massive amount. Where did they get those thoughts to begin with though? Who's directing them (and who are they in bed with?). You aren't born racist so how do you become racist? How do massive groups form? Analyse that and you have a perfect tool to utilise for your own ends.
I can only suggest to you to read or look up Noam Chomsky's Manufacturing Consent because your actually partly right but quickly veering off into conspiracy talk.

Because in the grand scheme of things a local general election is tiny compared to a referendum on our status in the world and the reasons behind why we vote the way we vote in those elections are completely separate to anything to do with Russia. Vast swathes of the country will always vote Tory, vast swathes will always vote Labour, vast swathes won't bother voting at all and none of that is to do with Russia.
So now Putin don't give a shit about elections now ? If so then why did a Russian Bank which has link to the Kremlin lend Le Penn €11m in loans in 2014 ? You can't say every time a liberal loses that it's a Russian conspiracy and every time a liberal wins that well the Russian just didn't bother.

However, Russia might have a view on whether they wanted May or Corbyn and again their wonderful little troll farms could've worked their magic.
Again you can't just say this without backing it up with some evidence. But ok lets say your right who's side was Putin on ?


You're right in being sceptical and questioning it but there's ample evidence out there of what Russia does and pointing to it without being lazy as you say here:
I'm sceptical of the Russian links with Brexit because of the lack of evidence(The only evidence you've gave is you looking at the comments on twitter).



But I don't think we are going to agree which is fine. Still thanks for taking the time to response to my posts.
 

matherto

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The biggest newspaper to support Leave were - The Sun and The Daily Mail. The Sun is owned by Rupert Murdoch who is a Australian right wing media mogul who main goal isn't to work for Putin but to make himself richer, The Daily Mail is owned by Daily Mail and General Trust plc(A media group)and chaired by Jonathan Harmsworth, 4th Viscount Rothermere(Yes that's his real name)they also have no links to Putin.
Whilst I fully agree that Murdoch only really cares about getting rich, Murdoch owned/had a controlling interest in News Outdoor Russia, an advertising firm located there, he would've been on Putin's radar for doing business there, let alone the fact he's as well known as they come. One of his other companies has also been investigated by the FBI for bribing officials in Russia for various news stories too. Think they would've operated like this and Putin wouldn't have been interested?

More over, he's close friends with Trump which, if what a serious amount of us believe to be true, means he's probably close to Putin too. Interesting little tidbit - Jared Kushner and Ivanka Trump are quite close to Roman Abramovich's wife Dasha Zhukova, who introduced Zhukova to Kushner and Trump? Murdoch's ex-wife, Wendy. If there's not more to that relationship and how Murdochs then wife was introducing Russians to the Trump family (and the potential for her doing that alone without Rupert involved) then I'll buy you a beer. Abramovich is of course, very close to Putin.

Jonathan Harmsworth, wonderful official title and all (god I want a Viscount biscuit now) has/had a residence in Russia. Forbes reported on it here.
https://www.forbes.com/business/lists/2006/10/TYUE.html

Rich people in Russia are invariably linked to the oligarchs so by extension, Putin.

DMGT, as you mentioned, sold the Evening Standard to Alexander Lebedev in 2009. Lebedev is a huge spokesperson for Putin and an oligarch. Why are Russians trying to buy English publications? And would it be a stretch to imagine higher ups in DMGT, like Harmsworth having connections to said Russians like Lebedev beyond simply selling them a paper?

Call me a conspiracy theorist if you like but it all falls back to being rich and Russia and that only means one thing, every single time: Vladimir Putin.

Both tenuous links I'll admit but from everything we know about how things operate in Russia. Rich outsiders, hell rich Russians only get things done, whatever those things are, by working with the oligarchs. The oligarchs are all linked to, by means of direct control, Putin. He oversees everything and has ultimate say over everything. The man is a mafia don who controls everything with an iron fist, Russia is basically a mafia state. He's the most influential, powerful and richest man on the planet.

I can only suggest to you to read or look up Noam Chomsky's Manufacturing Consent because your actually partly right but quickly veering off into conspiracy talk.
I will actually look at Chomsky's stuff, if only because I enjoy reading and hearing what he has to say.

So now Putin don't give a shit about elections now ? If so then why did a Russian Bank which has link to the Kremlin lend Le Penn €11m in loans in 2014 ? You can't say every time a liberal loses that it's a Russian conspiracy and every time a liberal wins that well the Russian just didn't bother.
Putin does give a shit about elections, of course he does. He wants favourable people in positions of power, hence Le Pen, hence Trump, etc. (bet he pumped some money Wilders way too as a hunch).

I said that the people don't take in as much for general elections as they would've/should've done for Brexit so therefore it'd be harder for bot networks to do what they do and influence a big majority. For general elections people are stuck in their ways and they're a very 'local' thing. The general messages and reasoning for voting is the same every time and there's not much to gain from trying to influence it unless someone turns up who is radically different and suddenly popular. Very few votes in the UK actually matter when you realise how absolutely confirmed most of the country is for Labour or Conservative. We have our own swing states like the US do and that's where any targeted propaganda would take place.

Again you can't just say this without backing it up with some evidence. But ok lets say your right who's side was Putin on ?

I'm sceptical of the Russian links with Brexit because of the lack of evidence(The only evidence you've gave is you looking at the comments on twitter).
http://uk.businessinsider.com/twitt...xit-bot-network-were-russian-2018-1?r=US&IR=T

As I've intimated, I don't believe Twitter are being truthful nor are they truly aware of the scope of the problem on their platform so even if they were trying to be truthful, they couldn't be. They talk about a certain section of bots and try and see if it's the IRA in Russia which is but one of many troll farm organisations. This to me highlights that they're not taking a serious look at it but trying to assuage people's suspicions with minimum fuss.

Fact is, enough 'bots' can and will influence an awful lot of people and without going into every tweet about Brexit and analysing every profile that tweeted it I can't on my own provide the evidence you're probably going to be satisfied with.

But I don't think we are going to agree which is fine. Still thanks for taking the time to response to my posts.
I agree on this and thanks for your responses too, if nothing else it feels good to have a rant every once in a while and be forced to justify your beliefs. We could do a lot better by having to back up why we think and feel the way we do and it should always be challenged.
 
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Wibble

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I'm surprised that the bloke who became the biggest political donor in UK history - 12 million quid's worth of services at the last count - having multiple meetings with various Russian officials at the same time isn't of any interest whatsoever to the Brexit mob. Especially given the evidence of their fiddling in the US election.
 

Oldyella

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Putin went back in time and made a decent portion of Brits racist and then purposely altered all party manifestos from the last 30 years to take out the bits supporting the working poor who would ultimate vote to leave the EU. He's the Gary Sparrow of politics.
Of course not, but he has a declared interesting in destabilising western politics and Russian influence is becoming more and more uncovered in relation to two of the most destabilising issues in recent history, Trump and Brexit. No one believes Putin masterminded brexit but Russia 'stirred the pot' through online influence and funding.

They did not need a large influence anyway. Some people were always going to vote remain, and others were always going to vote leave. By data mining Facebook they looked to target the middle ground. I saw nothing on Facebook at the time, as I would of been a staunch remainer, my mother however who barely uses Facebook kept bringing up random obviously false stories that kept appearing whenever she logged on.
 

horsechoker

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He also claimed that if the French insisted on checks, lorries could divert to other ports in Europe.

“If we leave without a deal and the French say your goods can’t come in via Calais, which is possible, but then there are other ports and Rotterdam and Antwerp have been increasing their infrastructure and taking on more customs officers,” he said.
So what if The Netherlands also says the same and Belgium?
 

Paul the Wolf

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I think he's wumming at this point. He know no one takes him seriously.
But Brexiters do take him seriously, they take anyone seriously who says what they want to hear.

So what if The Netherlands also says the same and Belgium?
All EU countries will insist on checks. Rotterdam and Antwerp are equipped for container freight , not for massive lorry traffic. Only Dover and the Channel tunnel in the UK are equipped for massive lorry traffic.
In any case under WTO rules there has to be a hard border and checks.
 

Oscie

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Nothing that the cabinet is likely to agree is going to be agreeable to the remaining 27. It's like two children arguing which fast food restaurant they want to go to with a parent who has no intention of taking them to any fast food restaurant at all. The effort and energy that's going into these 'crunch talk' cabinet meetings is entirely wasted.
 

Kentonio

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What. The. Feck.

“He is a longstanding supporter of fellow Brexiteer Jacob Rees-Mogg, funding the Conservative MP’s Election campaign in 2015. In 2007, he also helped Rees-Mogg set up an investment firm of his own, Somerset Capital Management, which has virtually no investments in the UK, but large holdings in Russia.
 

Adisa

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What. The. Feck.

“He is a longstanding supporter of fellow Brexiteer Jacob Rees-Mogg, funding the Conservative MP’s Election campaign in 2015. In 2007, he also helped Rees-Mogg set up an investment firm of his own, Somerset Capital Management, which has virtually no investments in the UK, but large holdings in Russia.
The irony of this whole thing.
 

Stanley Road

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What. The. Feck.

“He is a longstanding supporter of fellow Brexiteer Jacob Rees-Mogg, funding the Conservative MP’s Election campaign in 2015. In 2007, he also helped Rees-Mogg set up an investment firm of his own, Somerset Capital Management, which has virtually no investments in the UK, but large holdings in Russia.
Are you angry about everything in this world? Just read some of your posts im the trump thread.

Must be tiring if you are . Cant you find anything in life to be happy about?
 

Kentonio

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Are you angry about everything in this world? Just read some of your posts im the trump thread.

Must be tiring if you are . Cant you find anything in life to be happy about?
Does the idea of the British government being in the pockets of Russia fill you with some sort of joy or zen-like calm?
 

Jippy

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What. The. Feck.

“He is a longstanding supporter of fellow Brexiteer Jacob Rees-Mogg, funding the Conservative MP’s Election campaign in 2015. In 2007, he also helped Rees-Mogg set up an investment firm of his own, Somerset Capital Management, which has virtually no investments in the UK, but large holdings in Russia.
It's an emerging markets focused investment firm.
 

Kentonio

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Banks and Wigmore getting grilled now. Apparently Wigmore immediately asked the committee chair to recuse because he accepted Chelsea tickets once. Response: “Nice try, Mr Wigmore’.

This is going to be a clown car performance.
 

Kentonio

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Banks and Wigmore running with a ‘we didn’t use CA because we’re better at it than them’ defense.

“Upon meeting with Cambridge Analytica, Banks says, “it became clear that there was a lot of sizzle but not much substance.”

Wigmore adds: “When you market an insurance company… it’s marketing. You’re talking about pay-per-click, Google ads. All we did was apply that knowledge in marketing in insurance to politics, because it’s what we knew… here, we believed CA were perceived as one of the best political campaigning companies. The truth is, our marketing people actually knew more than they did.”



“Collins turns to Aggregate IQ, trying to disentangle the relationship between them and CA. Banks doesn’t offer much, but does return to why they rejected CA: “I think, as we saw in the Channel 4 expose, [Nix] made a lot of claims about what his company can do… I got the definite feeling that he was just an ad agency.”

Wigmore interjects : “This claim that we can just hypnotise people is rubbish.”

Banks: “We did our own ‘micromessaging’, if you like: we targeted at Green voters, for instance, about poor African countries”

Live feed is here btw: https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news...-wigmore-face-mps-leave-eu-brexit-russia-live
 

Kentonio

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Twats.

“Wigmore admits he’s an “agent provocateur, I’m guilty of slight exaggeration in the message. The truth is we put out, in the document, did we use CA in the pitch, yes, did they do some work before the pitch, yes.”

Banks adds “we certainly weren’t afraid of leading journalists up the country path, the same with politicians… the same if you get Dominic Cummings on the stand… I think you have to take a slight pinch of salt, because we were running a campaign deliberately aimed at making fun of people, pushing them in a certain direction.”

Matheson: “Does that include also making fake news to wind people up?”

Banks: “I would say, Chris, that Parliament itself is the. biggest source of fake news in the country… straight after this hearing you’ll be at lunch with some Guardian journalist quaffing a glass of Chablis and spinning this how you want.”

These idiots really have bought into their self-created ‘Bad boys of Brexit’ image. I hope it all comes crashing down on top of them.
 

Kentonio

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Oohh it’s all kicking off! :lol:

“I’m frankly sick and tired of this,” Banks says. “You’ve got a vested interest in trying to discredit the Brexit campaign. I look, you’ve not called any witnesses from the Remain campaign to hammer them. If Mr Osborne, editor of the evening standard, isn’t going to any football matches with Putin’s number one man, he’s certainly working for Putin’s second man.

“The guy leading the Remain campaign is working for a Putin oligarch in London. If you can’t see double standards, I don’t think that’s fair.”
 

Kentonio

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“Collins asks about international collaboration between Euroskeptic movements. Wigmore says he went to visit “someone in France”, and Banks adds that, before the referendum, “there was some meetings with the Five Star movement” in Italy.

But Banks says “if there were a second referendum, I don’t think I’d be involved in it. Frankly, if I could go back on this one, I might not do that again.”
 

Raulduke

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If this is true, it's absolutely shocking and an incredibly dangerous precedent.