One question
@Siorac are Hungarians wise to this nonsense?
I know the government win a supermajority, is there any evidence it's popularity is on the wane?
According to surveys, they lost about half a million voters since the elections but that means very little because:
1) that's pretty much standard voter behaviour
2) it's the amount of uncertain voters that has increased which is normal when the next general election is four years away...
Apart from that it's hard to say. I barely know anyone who voted for them - if only the people I personally know were eligible to vote, Fidesz might have trouble clearing the threshold to get into parliament - but then I live in Budapest, I have a university education, I work in tech etc. In this sense, Hungary is deeply polarised. Budapest is its own little island in a sea of orange and pretty much all data points to the same thing: the less developed a region is, the more popular Fidesz is there.
In Budapest, out of 18 electoral districts Fidesz won 6. To illustrate how extreme that is: we have a total of 106 individual electoral districts in the country and Fidesz won 91 of those. Of the 15 they lost, 12 were in Budapest. Not even London is that different from the rest of the UK as far as I'm aware.
Fidesz got only one-third of their votes from Budapest and the regional capitals. 25% of their votes came from villages, the rest from smaller towns. In many small villages they get ridiculous majorities, like 80% and above. These are the places where people pretty much only watch the state TV (which has been a propaganda machine for eight years now) or maybe one of the big two of the commercial TV stations - one of which also happens to be the government's propaganda machine now.
Tens and possibly hundreds of thousands of people are dependent on communal labour, something that can be controlled entirely by Fidesz mayors in these villages. There have been many, many stories of mayors taking revenge on someone by taking that away from them, depriving them of their only income. Obviously that is illegal but that does not always stop them. And often even an implied threat is enough to make everyone fall in line.
So yeah, it's a desperate situation. Change is very, very unlikely because, frankly, there is very little appreciation for abstract things like democracy and the rule of law and freedom of speech. These values are simply not important for the average Hungarian, and the systematic destruction of democratic institutions simply does not register. Corruption - which is also systematic and open now - is waved away with "every politician steals anyway" and "at least they don't take the money out of the country" (which isn't true but anyway) and there are plenty of people who are genuinely terrified of non-existent immigrants whom they never met and never will.